Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a slight discount to futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is trading below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish trend. Overall, due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality on aluminum prices and the new US steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are considered neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is - 25, with the spot at 20680, indicating a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 765 tons to 127,734 tons, regarded as neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2]. - The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, slightly bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is positive for aluminum prices, but with the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price will move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Negative factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: Shanghai's spot price was 70,770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70,690, down 450; Changjiang's was 70,870 [4]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts were 70,798, up 699; LME inventory was 74,750, down 425; SHFE inventory (daily) was 136,300, up 29,728 [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, currently trading around 148.65, down approximately 0.16%, following a period of risk aversion in the financial markets and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The release of the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes has increased market confidence in the yen, although the Federal Reserve's cautious approach continues to support the dollar [3] - The market is awaiting the final GDP data for the second quarter from the U.S., which could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate if any signs of economic weakness are detected [3] Group 2: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - Key points from the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate that members discussed future monetary policy directions, noting that trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. have reduced uncertainty, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices [4] - Some members emphasized the need to evaluate the impact of the interest rate hike from January this year [5] - All members agreed that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue interest rate hikes [6] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve's Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding further policy easing, indicating that the Fed will balance high inflation and a weak job market when making future rate decisions [8] - Financial markets predict potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in the remaining meetings of this year and in the first quarter of 2026, based on the Fed's guidance from last week's meeting [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Exchange Rate - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently in an adjustment phase after a strong upward trend, with expectations of a continuation of the upward movement post-adjustment [10] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, indicating a bullish bias for this currency pair [10] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the zero line, suggesting that the USD/JPY may remain in an adjustment state in the short term [12]

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed down, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.37%, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.33% [3] - Despite the overall market decline, Intel and Tesla saw gains, with Intel's stock price increasing by 6.41% to $31.22 per share [4][3] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.83%, led by Alibaba's significant increase of 8.21%, while JD.com and Baidu both rose over 5% [7] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has increased to 91.9% [11][15] - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts has emerged, with some supporting further cuts while others express caution [12][14] Trade Policy Changes - The US has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective from August 1, 2025 [18][19] - This tariff reduction follows a trade agreement between the US and the EU, which previously included additional tariffs on the automotive sector [21] Intel's Strategic Moves - Intel is reportedly seeking investment from Apple to revitalize its operations, as both companies explore closer collaboration [6] - This potential partnership could validate Intel's transformation efforts, although Apple has shifted to self-developed processors in recent years [6] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have experienced a decline, with spot gold dropping below $3720 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 1% [10][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of the recent mining accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper supply, thereby supporting copper prices in the long term [1][2][19]. Group 1: Copper Market - The copper price rose by 3.31% due to supply expectations being reduced following the Grasberg mining accident [2][19]. - Year-to-date, the supply of copper concentrate has remained tight, with smelting profits at breakeven levels, yet smelting output continues to grow [2][19]. - The mining accident is likely to shift the global copper supply-demand balance towards a deficit, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold and silver prices have paused their upward momentum, showing signs of adjustment [3][18]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicate a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, despite acknowledging risks to employment [3][18]. - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates in the remaining meetings of the year, which could support gold prices in the long term [3][18]. Group 3: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 1.53% increase in oil prices, with Iraq approving a plan to restore oil exports from the Kurdistan region, potentially adding at least 230,000 barrels per day to supply [4][13]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as drone attacks in Ukraine affecting Russian oil exports, continue to pose risks to production levels [4][13]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, indicating a net injection of 300 billion yuan for September, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased liquidity [7][12]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's current interest rate policies, advocating for a reduction of 100-150 basis points by year-end [6][12]. Group 5: Industry News - A joint announcement from six departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the construction materials industry, projecting revenues from green building materials to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [8].

【9月24日美国财长对美联储主席未明确降息议程表示失望】9月24日，美国财政部长贝森特对美联储主 席鲍威尔未明确制定降息议程不满。贝森特周三称，当前利率限制过大，需降低利率。 他还表示，有 点惊讶鲍威尔未释放年底前至少降息100至150个基点的信号。而鲍威尔周二指出，决策要兼顾劳动力市 场疲软和通胀上升风险。 他称近期通胀风险上行、就业风险下行，这种双边风险意味着没有无风险的 决策路径。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 09.24 21:51:15 周三 美国财长与美联储主席:降息分歧, 目标100 - 150基点 【9月24日美国财长对美联储主席未明确降息议程表 示失望】9月24日,美国财政部长贝森特对美联储 主席鲍威尔未明确制定降息议程不满。贝森特周三 称,当前利率限制过大,需降低利率。他还表示, 有点惊讶鲍威尔未释放年底前至少降息100至150个 基点的信号。而鲍威尔周二指出,决策要兼顾劳动 力市场疲软和通胀上升风险。他称近期通胀风险上 行、就业风险下行,这种双边风险意味着没有无风 险的决策路径。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯 ...

新任理事的异议之声 在批评鲍威尔的同时，贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏，称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议院批准的米兰，是一位激进降息的倡导者。 据报道，在美联储最近一次决定降息25个基点的会议上，米兰投了反对票，他更倾向于降息50个基点。 贝森特称赞道： "米兰在一周内所说的，比拜登政府任命的理事在整个任期内说的还要多"。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议 程，凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的利率"限制性过强，需要下调"。他指出，对于鲍威尔未能在 年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号，他感到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论，与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重 申，美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存的"挑战性局面"。他强调，双向风险意味着不存 在"无风险的路径"，暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧，发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露，他正在面试 ...

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，"我不确定为什么主席鲍威尔有些退缩" 。鉴于近期就业数据的修 订，"我们知道表象之下出了问题"，而且"利率过于紧缩"。"它们需要降下来"。他表示，对鲍威尔还没 有发出在年底前"至少"降息100至150个基点这一目标的信号感到"有些惊讶"。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美国财长贝森特：鲍威尔本应释放降息 100-150 个基点的信号。 ...

黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...

刚刚尝到降息甜头的市场，可能要失望了。 就在美联储时隔9个月重启降息仅仅一周后，三位手握投票权的关键人物却相继发声，给市场泼了一盆 冷水。 如果说穆萨莱姆还算委婉，那么亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就是直接摊牌了，由于担心通胀，他目前认 为今年没有理由进一步降息。 博斯蒂克的担忧有数据支撑，他预计美国核心通胀率到年底将从7月的2.9%升至3.1%，失业率将小幅上 升至4.5%，更让人意外的是，他甚至不认为通胀在2028年之前能回落到美联储的目标2%。 这位2027年拥有投票权的官员还特别强调，并不认为"劳动力市场目前陷入危机"。换句话说，既然就业 市场没那么糟糕，凭什么要继续降息？ 降息蜜月期戛然而止 9月18日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，市场一片欢腾，但好景不长，短短几天内，三位美联储重要 官员的表态让投资者瞬间清醒。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆率先开火，这位今年拥有货币政策委员会投票权的关键人物明确表示，他支 持上周的降息决定，但预计进一步宽松的空间有限，更直白地说，就是"降可以，但别想降太多"。 穆萨莱姆的理由很现实：货币政策立场现在介于适度限制和中性之间，在政策不过度宽松的情况下，进 一步宽松的空间有限， ...