Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, indicates that the economic fundamentals are weak, the labor market is loosening further, and the process of inflation decline is ongoing [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as weak, suggesting potential challenges for growth and investment opportunities in the near term [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing further loosening, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Inflation Trends - The process of inflation decline is still in progress, indicating that inflationary pressures may be easing, which could influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July, with a focus on maintaining a healthy labor market and controlled inflation [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman expressed support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, indicating a shift in her previous focus on inflation concerns [1][4]. - Another Federal Reserve official, Waller, also indicated he might support a rate cut in July due to concerns about a weakening labor market [1][7]. - The recent comments from Bowman and Waller mark a significant change in the Federal Reserve's stance, particularly as they were both appointed during Trump's first term [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The current benchmark interest rate is maintained at 4.25% to 4.5%, which is considered above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [2]. - Economic data shows that tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy, with strong labor market and inflation data persisting [3][4]. - Following Bowman's comments, major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw increases, indicating positive market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29-30 is currently estimated at 23%, while the probability for a cut in September is around 78% [4]. - The discussions around interest rate cuts are influenced by President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates to reduce the financing costs of the growing national debt [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Bowman highlighted the need to reassess the current leverage ratio regulations, which may have unintended consequences on market activities, particularly in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to discuss potential modifications to leverage ratio rules, aiming to improve market resilience during stress events [8].

金十数据6月23日讯，美联储理事鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快降低 政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"鲍曼去年一直非常关注通胀风险。她 说，由于预计今年经济将出现更多闲置产能，她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅且一次性"的。她将 劳动力市场描述为坚实且预计接近充分就业的水平。但她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力 减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所 面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特朗普提名并经参议院确认出任美联储监管副主席以来，首 次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 美联储理事鲍曼暗示：或会支持7月降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports maintaining the current monetary policy stance during the June FOMC meeting, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate changes based on economic indicators [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The FOMC may consider lowering interest rates if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market shows signs of weakening [1] - The current labor market in the U.S. is described as robust, suggesting stability in employment conditions [1] Group 2: Trade and Inflation - Price pressures from tariffs appear to have been offset, indicating that trade dynamics are not significantly impacting inflation [1] - There is no substantial evidence that the trade situation is causing major effects on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June, citing a resilient labor market and no significant impact from trade developments [1] Group 1 - The labor market remains strong, indicating economic stability [1] - There has been no notable effect from trade developments on the economy [1] - Price pressures from tariffs appear to have been offset [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on bank capital on July 22 [1] - If inflation remains moderate, it will support a rate cut in July [1]

美联储理事鲍曼：支持维持6月利率不变，劳动力市场表现坚韧。 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted that a strong labor market, increasing real incomes, robust private sector balance sheets, and more accommodative financing conditions are expected to provide support [1] Group 1 - The labor market in Europe is described as strong, which is a positive indicator for economic stability and growth [1] - There is a noted increase in real incomes, suggesting improved purchasing power for consumers [1] - The private sector's balance sheets are characterized as robust, indicating financial health and resilience among businesses [1] - Financing conditions are becoming more accommodative, which could facilitate investment and economic activity [1]

Core Economic Data - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the May Core PCE Price Index year-on-year at 20:30 on Friday, with a previous value of 2.5% and an expected value of 2.6%, indicating a small expected decline [1] - The Core PCE year-on-year data is a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and a significant drop in PCE data could lead to a resumption of interest rate cuts [1] - The May Core CPI year-on-year has been published at 2.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value, indicating stability over three consecutive months [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on future interest rate changes, inflation trends, and the labor market [4] - If Powell's statements align with previous remarks, the impact on the dollar index may be minimal; however, unexpected comments could lead to significant volatility [4] - Powell's previous comments indicated that the Fed is patient regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that such actions are not imminent [4] Oil Market Influence - The fluctuations in crude oil prices are expected to correlate with changes in PCE data; in May, U.S. crude oil prices increased by 4.43%, with a price range between $55 and $64, indicating limited volatility [1] ECB and Eurozone Outlook - ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in Munich on Friday, likely not addressing interest rate paths or inflation due to the event's limited economic relevance [5] - Lagarde's previous remarks indicated a favorable position for the euro, and her upcoming speeches are expected to maintain an optimistic tone, potentially benefiting the euro [5]

周五，美联储理事沃勒（Waller）最新表态， 他预计关税不会显着推高通胀，因此美联储可能最早在7月会议上就降息，这一表态为美联储可能重启宽松周期 提供了重要信号。 沃勒的7月降息表态与美联储主流谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，却与特朗普的降息要求高度一致。分析认为，这是沃勒竞争下任美联储主席职位的策略表 态。 新美联储通讯社Timiraos称，沃勒在美联储内部立场历来较为灵活，能够在不同情况下调整观点。这种灵活性可能使其在竞争主席职位时具有优势。 沃勒力推7月降息论 Waller接受CNBC采访时表示： 我认为我们无需再等待太久就可以降息，可能最早在7月会议上就降息。 重要的是要忽略关税对通胀的影响，我们尚未看到关税对通胀产生重大冲击。 Waller明确表示支持在7月会议上降息，尽管他承认整个委员会是否会同意这一立场尚不确定。 如果你开始担心劳动力市场的下行风险，现在就行动，不要等待，为什么我们要等到真正看到崩盘才开始降息？ 所以我完全赞成在下次会议上开始考虑降低 政策利率，因为我们不想等到就业市场崩溃后才开始降息。 目前尚不清楚沃勒是否能够为他的立场争取到大量支持。包括Waller在内的FOMC一致投票决定在本周的 ...

在近期举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，美联储维持利率不变，这一决策既在意料之中，又引发了市场对于未来 经济走向的诸多猜测。美联储正小心翼翼地权衡通胀上升与劳动力市场疲软的双重风险，力求在两者之间找到微妙的平衡。 市场分析人士指出，财政政策和关税政策带来的不确定性，可能会推高美国国债收益率，进而影响抵押贷款利率。与此同时， 中东地区的紧张局势以及国内经济的潜在放缓，也可能引发避险情绪，从而压低收益率。这种复杂的局面使得市场前景变得扑 朔迷离。 尽管房屋供应量的增加有望促进销量的小幅增长，但如果抵押贷款利率不能有效下降，房地产市场的活跃度可能会受到限制， 并在短期内持续在底部徘徊。 那么，这对房地产市场意味着什么呢？ 尽管存在大量的潜在需求，但经济不确定性和劳动力市场疲软导致房屋销售量与去年同期基本持平。尽管在美联储做出决策之 前，抵押贷款利率有所下降，但短期内不太可能进一步下降。 然而，抛开对经济增长的担忧，对于购房者来说，当前的市场也存在一些有利因素：充足的房源选择赋予了他们更大的议价能 力，这是至少七年来春季购房季中从未有过的。今年的春季购房季可能会延续到夏季，前提是房价和利率能够进一步下降。 ...