张尧浠：黄金再度回踩看涨支撑、基本面暗示仍待调整 上交易日周一(7月28日)：国际黄金低开走弱，倒垂收跌，贸易谈判和风险情绪回升，推动美元指数强势反弹收阳，打压金价，虽然特朗普言论的本周必 须降息，限制了金价跌幅，但周初的中美贸易谈判和本周的美联储利率决议及非农等仍在令市场观望，而减弱了多头动力，使其维持近日的回落趋势； 不过形态上，有一定的止跌信号，再加上ZZ指标已经显示触底，上升趋势线支撑也再度显现回踩看涨预期，因而，也暗示下方空间有限，昨日低点附近 或100日均线支撑位置，则是可看涨反弹的机会，有望维持震荡三角趋势再度上探3400美元上方。 另外，本周还将迎来美联储利率决议和非农等数据，决议上，市场预期利率保持不变，但特朗普认为美联储本周必须降息，如意外降息，金价将直接强势 反弹，如保持不变，则需关注鲍威尔和点阵图对于后市的利率政策的观点，如偏鸽将利好金价，如偏鹰将继续打压金价。 但如跌破100日均线支撑，则警惕进一步回落至3100美元或3000美元关口的风险。 具体走势上，金价自亚市低开近17美元至3321.78美元，先行震荡走强，于欧盘尾时段录得日内高点3344.99美元，之后转震荡回落，收复日内涨 ...

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。 纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特 朗普政府8月1日关税最后期限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌 64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨 1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | ...

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特朗普政府8月1日关税最后期 限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报 44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) increased nearly 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) surged 10% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.24% to 564.02 points, with a total market turnover of 250.3 billion HKD [5] Group 2 - The international oil market saw a rebound, with WTI crude oil rising 2.85% to $66.70 per barrel, marking a two-week high, and Brent crude oil increasing 2.91% to $69.57 per barrel [3][6] - Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3,314.63 per ounce, while silver prices remained unchanged at $38.17 per ounce [3][6] - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, closing up 1% at 98.633 points, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield at 4.417% [3][6]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.02% [1][8] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the sixth consecutive trading day, while the Nasdaq set a record for the 14th time this month, marking July as the month with the most record highs since December 1999 [8] Sector Performance - Popular technology stocks mostly rose, with notable gains from AMD (up over 4%), Nvidia (up over 1%), and Tesla (up over 3%) [1][9] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector, along with the oil and gas sector, saw significant gains, with Nabors Industries rising over 6% [1] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.38%, closing at $66.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.34%, closing at $70.04 per barrel [5] - In the precious metals market, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $3314 per ounce, and silver futures decreased by 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.69%, with major Chinese stocks like iQIYI down over 3% and NIO down over 1% [2][11] - Alibaba saw a slight increase of 1.77%, while other Chinese stocks like Pinduoduo and Baidu experienced declines [12][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, but the market is closely watching for signs of potential rate cuts starting in September [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Analysts believe that clarity regarding interest rate decisions has not yet arrived, allowing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The Fed has signaled the possibility of needing to cut rates, but officials are waiting to assess the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy [4][5]. - The current economic conditions are not significantly different from a few months ago, despite a slowdown in growth [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employers continued to add jobs in June, despite the economic slowdown [6]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with tariffs increasing the risk of sustained high inflation [7]. - The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, with officials outlining the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market perceives that the Fed's patience may soon wane, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [8]. - The Fed will have access to July and August employment reports to evaluate whether the job market is slowing down [9]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Some economists believe that waiting until September for a rate cut may be too late, with the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year [10]. - Analysts expect Powell to reiterate that any decisions will depend on data [11]. - There is a growing divide among Fed officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and the need for patience [15][17]. Group 5: Reasons for Rate Cuts - Two Fed officials have shown a tendency towards rate cuts, citing signs of economic slowdown despite a seemingly normal economy [13]. - Lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers could provide support before further economic deterioration [14]. - Concerns about inflation driven by tariffs are present, but some officials believe these effects may take time to fully manifest [16].

特朗普：聪明人会降息。 ...

| Million | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏弱震荡。关税方面,上周美国相继与多个国家达成贸易协议,其中最关键的日本和欧盟税率均 为15%,另外要求加大对美投资。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税,美商务部长称8月1日 关税上调最后期限不再延长。中美即将迎来新一轮谈判,超预期对抗概率较低。地缘方面,上周泰国和柬埔 寨边境争议地区发生交火,双方均称对方先开火。美国总统特朗普致电两国领导人,施压要求立即停火否则 不会就关税进行谈判。双方已同意在马来西亚举行会谈。降息前景方面，上周美国公布多项经济数据仍偏 强,标普全球制造业PMI 虽有回落,但服务业PMI 创阶段性新高,周度初 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing reduced uncertainty in economic growth due to the resolution of tariff negotiations with major trading partners, but inflation concerns are resurfacing[1] - Global inflation risks are increasing, potentially reversing expectations for interest rate cuts, which may impact financial markets in August and September[1] - The US government recorded a fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first surplus in June in nearly eight years, which may alleviate some fiscal pressure from tax cuts[8] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economic stabilization in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by increased fiscal spending and rapid export growth, but the real estate sector continues to face contraction pressures[1] - The "anti-involution" policy may become a central theme in the second half of the year, potentially improving market supply-demand relationships and restoring market confidence[1] - Real estate sales in the first half of 2025 saw a significant decline, with new residential prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month in June[14] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets have been the main source of profit in July, buoyed by positive sentiment from US-EU trade agreements, offsetting declines in domestic and international bond markets[2] - The strategy for August maintains the July allocations, with a focus on hedging positions in Japanese and Italian stocks against German stocks, while being bearish on the international bond market[2] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil, have seen seasonal increases, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties[2]

Report Title Precious Metals Weekly Report (July 21 - July 25) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic commodities surged, and precious metal prices rose first and then fell. Silver remained stronger than gold. The prices of precious metals were supported by the domestic commodity boom despite trade agreement news from Japan and the EU. The expectation of a Fed rate cut continued to rise, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices had strong capital support [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2510 closed up 0.26%, reaching a maximum of 794 yuan/gram; COMEX Gold closed down 0.2%, reaching a maximum of 3451.7 dollars/ounce. - Shanghai Silver 2510 closed up 2.4%, reaching a new historical high of 9526 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Silver closed up 0.06%, reaching a maximum of 39.91 dollars/ounce, the highest since September 2011. - SGE Gold T + D closed up 0.29%, and SGE Silver T + D closed up 2.21%. - London Gold Spot closed down 0.4%, and London Silver Spot closed down 0.03%. - The US Dollar Index closed down 0.8%, and the US Dollar against Offshore RMB closed down 0.18% [4][12]. - **Trade Agreement News**: - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU would increase investment in the US by 600 billion dollars, buy US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products [12][13]. - **Economic Data**: - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. - The Eurozone July PMI rose to 51, a new high in nearly a year. Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, while France's economy continued to shrink due to political deadlock. - US June existing - home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, while housing prices reached a new historical high [14][15]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Focus**: This week, the China - US trade negotiation and the August 1 tariff "deadline" were the focuses, and the Fed's interest rate decision was highly anticipated. The US would also release key data such as non - farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE. The Bank of Japan would announce the target interest rate. China would hold a Politburo meeting at the end of July and release the official manufacturing PMI data [12]. - **Position Analysis**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased slightly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced, and the fluctuation was very limited. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to increase, with both long and short positions increasing significantly. - CFTC net positions fluctuated slightly, with both long and short positions of gold and silver increasing, but the increase in short positions was limited [12]. 3. Fundamental Data - **ETF Positions**: SPDR Gold ETF positions continued to increase, and silver ETF positions increased in a fluctuating manner [31][33]. - **Inventory Data**: - COMEX Gold inventory increased slightly, and COMEX Silver inventory decreased slightly. - Shanghai Gold inventory data was presented, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased in a fluctuating manner [36][38]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 216,889, an increase of 5.34% from last week; short positions were 66,199, an increase of 5.86%; the net position was 150,690, an increase of 5.12% [23]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 448,932, a decrease of 8.03% from last week; short positions were 348,227, a decrease of 7.89%; the net position was 100,705, a decrease of 8.53% [26]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 22, the net long position of CFTC gold increased significantly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced; the net long position of CFTC silver increased slightly, also with more long positions added and short positions reduced [27]. 5. Summary - Tariff agreements had no progress, the expectation of a rate cut increased significantly, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices were still relatively strong [12].