（原标题：3?500亿美元大挪移! 摩根大通撤出美联储账户 转向猛买美债 真金白银押注降息延续） 智通财经APP获悉，据美国媒体报道，华尔街金融巨头摩根大通(JPM.US)自2023年以来已从其在美联储 的账户中撤出近3500亿美元现金，并几乎将同等规模的资金用于累计配置美国政府所发行的国债。摩根 大通此举可谓旨在为利率长期下行以及长期较低利率做准备工作，以对冲未来利率下行对净利息收入 (NII/NIM)的挤压，对于有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的10年期美债收益率，以及更长期限的美债收益 率的下行趋势而言可谓边际利好。 有媒体援引行业数据追踪机构BankRegData汇编的数据报道称，这家资产规模超过4万亿美元的超级商 业银行，将其在美联储账户的余额从2023年末的4090亿美元降至2025年第三季度的630亿美元。 与此同时，媒体报道称，摩根大通将其美国国债市场的持有量从2310亿美元大幅提高至4500亿美元，这 也意味着即使美联储在特朗普提名的鸽派主席主导下持续下调利率也能确保较高收益率。 因此摩根大通在用实际的资产配置"押注降息大概率还会继续下去，至少推动短端美债收益率回落持 续"。从"长期限美债收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion in cash from its Federal Reserve account since 2023, reallocating a similar amount into U.S. government bonds to prepare for a long-term decline in interest rates, which is expected to benefit net interest income [1][2] Group 1: JPMorgan's Cash Withdrawal and Bond Investment - JPMorgan has reduced its Federal Reserve account balance from $409 billion at the end of 2023 to $63 billion by Q3 2025 [1] - The bank has increased its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities from $231 billion to $450 billion, indicating a strategy to secure higher yields even as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 5% in response to the highest inflation in 40 years, but is expected to begin lowering rates by the end of 2024 as inflation pressures ease [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate has been lowered to 3.50%–3.75%, the lowest level in three years, which impacts the interest earned on reserves held at the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Large banks like JPMorgan increasing their Treasury holdings can create sustained buying pressure, which may raise bond prices and lower yields, benefiting long-term Treasury yields [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower rates twice in 2026, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, while JPMorgan's economists predict only one rate cut [3][4]

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on December 18, 2025, covering gold and copper [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - line upward trend, while it will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, with a strong performance in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of gold was strong. New York gold once reached $4380, and Shanghai gold reached the 980 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Since last Friday, risk appetite has decreased significantly, as shown by the continuous decline of the U.S. stock market at a high level. This has increased the demand for hedging and pushed up the price of gold. Since the China - U.S. summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, and the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, attention can be paid to the high - level pressure at the end of October [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the price of copper rose first and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,800 mark, and Shanghai copper once touched 93,500 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: At the macro level, the short - term decline in market liquidity and risk appetite has put pressure on the copper price, but copper is relatively resistant to decline due to its financial attributes. At the industrial level, the spot is at a discount, and the 1 - 2 month spread is weakening, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, indicating that the domestic spot circulation is not tight [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, continuous attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: volatile and bullish; Long - term: bullish [1][4].

美联储上周已完成年内连续第三次25个基点的降息，市场普遍预期，明年1月的政策会议大概率将维持利 率稳定，政策制定者显然在等待更全面的经济数据支撑决策，单一CPI报告难以撼动现有政策基调。 在过去三年的多数时段里，CPI报告始终是美股交易员决策体系中最关心的数据之一，但如今，投资者正 以近乎漠然的姿态，等待周四揭晓的11月通胀数据。 巴克莱银行的追踪数据显示，期权交易员当前押注标普500指数当日波动幅度将控制在0.7%以内，这一预 期显著低于今年9月前12份CPI报告所引发的1%平均实际波动水平。 相较于通胀率的小幅起伏，央行如今更关注劳动力市场的疲软信号。周二公布的就业数据显示11月美国就 业增长持续低迷，失业率攀升至四年高点，这一态势在10月的疲软表现后仍未好转，为明年的降息操作预 留了政策空间。 另一位候选人、前美联储理事凯文・沃什也被特朗普视为有力人选，其政策倾向同样被市场解读为支持宽 松。 多重因素的叠加，使得11月CPI报告沦为美股市场的"边缘数据"。 11月CPI报告因政府停摆导致数据收集工作中断而推迟至周四出炉，不仅时效性大打折扣，数据可靠性也 面临质疑。更关键的是，10月CPI报告已永久缺失， ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-18 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面变化有限，市场情绪驱动锂价向上。一方面，宜春市自然资源局拟注销 27 宗采矿许可证，虽然所涉矿山此前多处于停产状态，对实际供需影响有限，但市场将此解读 为宜春地区锂矿资源管控趋严的信号，并预期未来云母锂供应增量可能受限。另一方面，市 场对大厂复产时间的预期不断推迟，在未复产的情况下，周度库存仍保持 2000 吨以上的去 化速度，现实层面的持续去库，叠加未来需求向好的预期，共同支撑了多头的看涨情绪。不 过需注意的是，目前现货市场成交仍显清淡，下游对当前高价接受度不高，期货与现货市场 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 出现一定背离。整体来看，当前市场情绪偏乐观，短期锂价预计高位运行，波动加剧，建议 谨慎持仓。 | 所 | | 长 | 首 | 推 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to provide insights into future policy directions for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, amid concerns about the U.S. economy's momentum and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Data Outlook - The CPI saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, the lowest in nearly four years, but inflation rose to 3% by September, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to increased tariffs [3][4]. - The November CPI report is anticipated to show a slight increase in overall CPI from 3.0% to 3.1%, with core CPI expected to remain stable at 3% [4]. - Service prices, a major driver of inflation, increased by 3.5% year-on-year as of September, but this is the smallest increase since the pandemic began, indicating potential for inflation to decline if service price growth slows [4]. Federal Reserve Internal Disagreements - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with rising prices due to tariffs suppressing consumer demand and leading to tighter hiring policies [5][6]. - Retail sales showed no growth in October, particularly affecting low-income households, while high-income households continue to drive non-essential spending, highlighting a widening economic gap [5]. - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times since September, but Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are unlikely until labor market and inflation trends are clearer [5][6]. Future Projections - The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot suggests only one rate cut may occur this year, while futures markets indicate a nearly 80% probability of a cut by June [7]. - The complexity of future rate cuts will depend on employment and inflation performance, with potential resistance from hawkish members of the Fed if the labor market remains stable [7]. - The impact of a new Federal Reserve chair is uncertain, with expectations that significant rate cuts may only occur in response to rising recession fears, which could negatively affect the Republican midterm election outlook [7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 17, with the Dow Jones down 0.47% at 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down 1.16% at 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.81% at 22,693.32 points [3]. - Major technology stocks collectively declined, with Tesla dropping over 4%, Nvidia nearly 4%, and Google over 3% [2][5]. Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.78%, with significant declines in major chip stocks such as ASML, ARM, and AMD, each dropping over 5%, and Broadcom down over 4% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.73%. Notable declines included Century Internet and NIO, both down over 3%, while Dingdong Maicai surged over 22% [6]. Commodity Market - Precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.9% to $4,371.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce [6]. - Crude oil prices also increased, with light crude oil futures for January delivery rising by $0.67 to $55.94 per barrel (up 1.21%) and Brent crude for February delivery up $0.76 to $59.68 per barrel (up 1.29%) [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains restrictive, with room for potential interest rate cuts in the future. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that there is no urgency for rate cuts, suggesting a gradual approach towards neutral policy rates to address slowing inflation while maintaining economic resilience [9].

智通财经APP获悉，周三，三大指数下跌，科技股领跌，特斯拉从高位回落。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌228.29点，跌幅为0.47%，报47885.97点；纳指跌418.14点，涨幅为1.81%， 报22693.32点；标普500指数跌78.83点，跌幅为1.16%，报6721.43点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌超4.6%，英 伟达(NVDA.US)涨3.8%，Circle(CRCL.US)跌超4.5%。甲骨文跌5.4%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌120.01点，跌幅0.50%，报23967.32点；英国富时100指数涨85.72点，涨幅 0.89%，报9770.51点；法国CAC40指数跌20.11点，跌幅0.25%，报8086.05点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 32.63点，跌幅0.57%，报5685.20点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨6.90点，涨幅0.04%，报16928.80点；意大利 富时MIB指数涨88.02点，涨幅0.20%，报44078.50点。 【亚太股市】日经225指数涨0.26%，韩国KOSPI指数涨1.43%，印尼综合指数跌0.1%。 【外汇】彭博美元指数缩小涨幅，美联储理事沃勒表示支持进 ...

Core Insights - The Brazilian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.46% year-on-year and increased by 0.18% month-on-month in November, marking the first time since September 2024 that the annual inflation rate has fallen within the Brazilian Central Bank's target range of 1.5% to 4.5% [1] - Analysts suggest that the November inflation data is unlikely to lead to an interest rate cut in the upcoming central bank meeting, but there is a possibility of a rate cut in January next year [1] Category Summaries - The largest increases in consumer spending categories were observed in personal expenditures and housing, which rose by 0.77% and 0.52% respectively [1] - Price declines were noted in categories such as household goods, communications, health and personal care, as well as food and beverages [1]

Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones increasing by 194.38 points (0.40%) to 48,308.64, while the Nasdaq fell by 57.75 points (0.25%) to 23,053.71, and the S&P 500 decreased by 4.80 points (0.07%) to 6,795.46 [3][10] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. However, November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 45,000 [3][10] Oil Market Impact - Concerns over oversupply led to a decline in U.S. WTI and ICE Brent crude oil prices, both dropping over 2.7%, with WTI reaching its lowest level since 2021, negatively impacting energy sector stocks [4][11] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The recent employment data has caused traders to pause on increasing bets for short-term interest rate cuts, as the job market shows signs of cooling but not rapid deterioration [6][12] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressure to cut rates in upcoming meetings unless inflation data aligns with expectations, indicating that March may still be too early for a rate cut [13][12] Global Central Bank Decisions - Multiple central banks are expected to announce policy decisions before the end of the week, with the Bank of England likely to decide on a rate cut and the Bank of Japan expected to raise rates to a 30-year high [13]