撼动美元霸权第一枪，中国终于在2025年9月把牌摊在了桌面上，场面一度尴尬，澳洲那边总理阿尔巴尼斯对着 镜头挤出"失望"俩字，翻译一遍意思就是：这下麻烦了。 铁矿石，这玩意儿看起来没啥存在感，实则是现代工业的"饭票"，中国要吃饭，澳洲要卖饭，过去十年形成 的"你买我卖"默契，这一刻说断就断了，像极了深夜分手短信，隔着太平洋都能闻到一股生意场的火药味。 2025年9月18日，澳洲铁矿企业的股票直接跳水，跌幅超过8%，有个老股民在微信群里发了句"自作孽不可活"， 没人敢接话，澳洲的GDP有六成都押在矿上，这一下不是挠痒，是捅肺管。 有人问：怎么突然就翻脸了？其实不突然，攒了十年的火气，早在2022年中国矿产资源集团成立时就埋下了种 子，大家都知道，铁矿石的价格一直是澳洲三巨头说了算，买家像是菜市场里等着挨宰的主儿，85%的货进中 国，价钱却总是"美金报价"，一边喊着市场自由，一边玩着定价权的把戏。 我问了个做钢材的小老板，2023年他还在抱怨普氏指数"一天三变"，铁矿石进厂价一吨能差出四五百块人民币， 他说"买家就像韭菜，卖家拿着镰刀"，没得选。 2025年这次谈判，澳洲那边依旧想按老规矩来，美元结算，普氏定价， ...

Core Points - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will impose a "port entry fee" on Chinese or China-built vessels starting October 14, 2025, aimed at restructuring shipping and supply chain dependencies [2][5] - The fee structure includes three tiers: $50 per net ton (NT) for Chinese-operated vessels, $18 per NT or $120 per TEU for non-Chinese-operated but China-built vessels, and $14 per NT for foreign-built vehicle carriers [2][3] - Exemptions are available for U.S.-flagged vessels, certain MARAD project vessels, small vessels, and LNG carriers during a transition period [3][5] Policy Development - The policy was developed over 18 months, beginning with a "301 investigation" into China's shipping and logistics sectors in April 2024, leading to public hearings and a final decision in April 2025 [5][6] - The U.S. government aims to address perceived unfair practices by China in the maritime sector, reflecting a broader strategy to counter China's growing dominance in global shipping [7][8] Economic Impact - The new regulations are expected to add billions in costs to the global container shipping industry, with estimates suggesting an additional $3.2 billion in expenses for the top ten global shipping companies by 2026 [9][10] - Increased shipping costs may lead to a shift in trade patterns, with U.S. importers potentially stockpiling goods and Chinese exporters facing diminished competitive advantages [10][11] Operational Adjustments - Shipping companies are likely to restructure their operations, including optimizing vessel deployment and utilizing third-country transshipment to avoid fees [9][16] - The policy may lead to a tightening of shipping capacity and increased competition for available slots, particularly on traditional routes to the U.S. [14][16] Strategic Responses - Shipping firms may adopt various strategies to mitigate the impact of the new fees, such as changing vessels, altering shipping routes, and enhancing alliances for shared resources [16][18] - The long-term implications of the policy could reshape the global shipping landscape, creating a divide between companies focused on Western markets and those engaged in trade with developing countries [10][18]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, potentially requiring the return of $184.7 billion collected through these tariffs, raising questions about presidential power boundaries [1][3][5]. Group 1: Legal and Institutional Implications - The court's ruling emphasizes that a state of emergency does not equate to unlimited power, confirming that Congress never authorized the president to impose tariffs under the mentioned law [6][18]. - The ruling reflects a rare judicial assertiveness against presidential overreach, challenging the historical trend of expanding executive power under the guise of national security [5][18]. - The decision underscores the constitutional principle that the power to levy taxes belongs to Congress, not the president [8][10]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Consequences - The ruling could destabilize previous trade agreements and negotiations, as traditional allies like Germany, France, and Japan reconsider their concessions made under U.S. pressure [20][22]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy may lead multinational companies to diversify their supply chains, reducing reliance on the U.S. market [23][25]. - The potential for refunding the collected tariffs raises significant fiscal challenges for the Treasury, as it could exacerbate the deficit and complicate the refund process [27][28]. Group 3: Political Reactions and Future Outlook - The ruling has exposed divisions within the Republican Party, with some advocating for an appeal to the Supreme Court while others caution against undermining the principle of limited government [29][31]. - The outcome of this case could set a precedent for how future presidents approach emergency powers and trade policies, necessitating careful evaluation of legal justifications [33][39]. - The case illustrates a broader trust issue, as the ability of the U.S. to uphold its own legal frameworks is questioned, impacting international relations and business confidence [40].

美国中西部粮仓已爆满，大豆库存量高达2200万吨，爱荷华州的仓储容量仅剩12%。这是2025年秋天美 国农业的真实写照。 曾经，中国每年从美国购买数千万吨大豆，占据了美国大豆出口的相当大比例。如今，这片市场的大门 几乎关闭。 大豆之战：关税改变贸易格局 特朗普政府今年4月宣布对中国商品加征104%关税后，中国迅速反制，将美国大豆关税提高至97%，叠 加基础关税后最高达105%。 价格测算显示，美国大豆到岸成本已从此前的每吨400美元飙升至776美元，而巴西大豆仅需约380美元 每吨。 面对如此巨大的价格差距，中国买家毫不犹豫地转向了南美市场。 中国海关总署的统计报告显示，2025年1-8月，中国大豆进口总量为7331.24万吨，其中巴西仍是主要供 应国（占比71.6%），美国占比降至22.8%。 更令人担忧的是，2025年新季大豆对华出口量较上年同期骤降35%，截至7月，中国购买的美国大豆比 去年同期减少了51%。 救助计划：政府停摆雪上加霜 面对农业危机，特朗普政府计划推出120亿至130亿美元的农业援助计划，但由于政府"停摆"，这一计划 的实施时间已被迫推迟。 失去中国市场后，特朗普政府开始在全球范围内为 ...

全球大宗商品贸易格局，正经历一场深刻的结构性重塑。 必和必拓的股价，在10月1日遭遇重挫，单日跌幅高达6%，这绝非寻常的市场噪音。当日，新加坡铁矿石期货市场也随之下探4%。此番震荡的源头，在于 中国方面采取的果断行动：9月30日，中国矿产资源集团向国内钢铁企业发出明确指令，暂停采购所有以美元计价的必和必拓铁矿石，即便是已装船在途的 货物，也一概叫停。 此举的深层逻辑，在于中国正积极推动结算货币的多元化与安全化。一个关键信号是，中方推动并促成了与巴西淡水河谷签署的长期供货协议，新订单规模 直接增添了5000万吨，且人民币结算比例显著提升至28%。这意味着，在全球铁矿石贸易中长期占据主导地位的美元结算体系，正被撕开一道实质性的裂 口。 对于必和必拓而言，处境无疑颇为尴尬。这家巨头在美国拥有多处重要的矿山和加工基地，美元结算根植于其商业惯例，且对华出口额占据其总营收的六成 以上。今年，在面临涨价15%的谈判诉求，以及澳大利亚老矿品位下降、导致成本与供应稳定性双双承压的背景下，中方选择以调整采购渠道和结算方式的 方式予以回应。 美国的反应迅速而紧张。美国财政部随即向巴西政府"表达关切"，但收效甚微。其担忧显而易见：铁 ...

自2018年特朗普发起贸易战以来，美国对华大豆的出口量大幅下降，至2017年的一半。这一"断供"风险促使全球买家，尤其是中国，加速了多元化的供应链 建设。2024年初，中国从巴西进口的大豆占总进口量的六成以上，而巴西通过长期采购协议稳固了自己作为最大供应国的地位。这种供应链的重构几乎不可 逆转。即使美国未来调整贸易政策，全球买家对其政策反复性的担忧已经深深扎根，很多国家在保障粮食安全时，倾向于与政策更加稳定、供应更可靠的国 家建立长期合作关系。美国大豆因此不仅失去了短期的订单，更失去了长期的市场信任。 特朗普在之前的贸易谈判中，曾多次要求其他国家购买美国的农产品，尤其是大豆，目的是消化美国的过剩产能。美国试图与尼日利亚、菲律宾、越南和孟 加拉国等国家进行谈判，希望他们能够购买美国的大豆。共和党的设想是，虽然美国失去了中国市场，但如果其他国家能分担一些进口量，就能部分弥补损 失。然而，现实远没有特朗普想的那么简单。 自从5月下旬以来，中国再也没有从美国进口大豆，这让特朗普面临了巨大的挑战。为了弥补这一损失，他拒绝妥协，试图通过其他方式将这些大豆销往其 他国家。然而，这一计划并不如特朗普所预期的那样顺利。 据路透 ...

特朗普在8月时曾亲自推销美国的大豆，但并没有收到预期的回应。美国农业州的农民开始向华府发声，抱怨找不到买家，收割机的忙碌却没有人前来购 买。到了10月1日，特朗普终于在社交媒体上表示，他计划在即将召开的APEC峰会上将大豆问题作为一个"主要议题"进行讨论。他甚至表示，将用从关税 中"赚到的钱"来补贴农民，同时指责前任总统拜登，让中国放弃了数十亿美元的大豆订单。 从今年5月起，中国已经没有再从美国进口大豆，这一变化意味着27年来的首次。造成这一局面的，是双方互相加征的高额关税。美国挑起了贸易冲突，而 中国则做出了回应。虽然两国的行动都符合贸易规则，但它们的后果却充满了冲突。 此前，中美曾达成共识，暂停关税战，窗口期持续到11月10号。如果无法达成协议，美国计划对中国加征145%的关税，中方则会对美方加征125%的关税。 这一举措几乎意味着双方的贸易将陷入全面瘫痪。美国的通胀将会飙升，普通家庭的生活成本将会进一步增加。而美国这两年已经面临着较大的生活成本压 力，牛奶、鸡蛋和汽油等商品的价格，已经让不少家庭感到吃力。这些问题远不是简单的政治话术，而是美国人日常生活中的真实困境。 许多人猜测，中国会不会在APEC峰会 ...

Core Insights - Intel is in preliminary discussions with AMD to potentially become a wafer foundry customer for AMD's chips [2] - The talks are at an early stage, and there is uncertainty regarding the order volume or any direct investment from AMD in Intel [2] - AMD's advanced AI chips are primarily produced by TSMC, and Intel currently lacks the technology to manufacture AMD's most advanced chips [2] Industry Context - The U.S. government's recent decision to invest directly in Intel highlights its strategic importance as a national asset [2] - If AMD places orders with Intel, it could signify a "return of American manufacturing," benefiting both companies [2] - For Intel, securing AMD as a customer would validate its advanced manufacturing processes, while for AMD, it represents a strategy for supply chain diversification [2] Company Responses - Intel declined to comment on the discussions [2] - An AMD spokesperson stated that the company does not comment on market rumors or speculation [2]

Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are experiencing significant success in the ASEAN market, with 30% of surveyed companies reporting that their ASEAN business accounts for over 20% of total revenue, and over 60% achieving profitability [1][4] - The primary investment destinations for Chinese companies in ASEAN are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which collectively account for 90% of the investment flow [2][3] Investment Trends - In 2024, China's investment flow to ASEAN is projected to reach $34.36 billion, with Singapore receiving $17.89 billion (52% of total), followed by Indonesia ($4.59 billion), Thailand ($4.56 billion), and Vietnam ($3.92 billion) [2][3] - The manufacturing sector remains the top target for investment, with a projected flow of $15.39 billion, representing a 68.2% increase year-on-year [7] Business Strategies - Over 90% of surveyed companies are entering the ASEAN market through wholly-owned subsidiaries, indicating a preference for control in long-term operations [5] - The majority of Chinese enterprises are adopting a "production base + sales" organizational model, with 95% of companies utilizing this structure [5] Economic Environment - ASEAN countries have been actively improving their investment environments, with over 70% of surveyed companies noting improvements in the business climate compared to previous years [9] - The region's strategic location, large consumer market, and abundant labor resources are key factors attracting Chinese investments [6][8] Future Outlook - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations have concluded, with expectations for a formal agreement by the end of the year, which will enhance economic cooperation and trade facilitation [10][11] - Service trade is anticipated to become a new growth point, with sectors such as tourism, finance, and consulting expected to expand alongside economic integration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a joint venture between Li Auto and Sunwoda Power Technology marks a deepening of their partnership, reflecting a strategic move to enhance supply chain stability in the electric vehicle industry [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture Formation - Li Auto and Sunwoda Power Technology have formed a joint venture named Shandong Li Auto Battery Co., Ltd., with a 50:50 investment ratio, focusing on the production and sales of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles [1]. - This joint venture is a continuation of their collaboration that began in 2017, indicating a shift towards a more integrated partnership [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Importance - In 2022, Li Auto invested 400 million yuan in Sunwoda, acquiring a 3.22% stake, which established a dual role as both a customer and shareholder, laying a solid foundation for future cooperation [3]. - As of March 2025, Li Auto has become one of Sunwoda's top five customers, contributing 5.8% to its revenue, with key models like L6, L7 Air, and L8 Air utilizing Sunwoda batteries [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Supply Chain Strategy - The joint venture is seen as a necessary response to industry changes, with Li Auto aiming to stabilize its supply chain where battery costs account for 30%-40% of vehicle production costs [3][4]. - Sunwoda's strategy involves deepening ties with leading automakers to secure stable sales and transition from a supplier to a profit-sharing partner [4]. Group 4: Operational Goals and Market Positioning - The joint venture will be led by Li Auto in product, process, and material design, with a target to achieve mass production of self-developed batteries by 2026 [4]. - The collaboration reflects a broader trend in the electric vehicle sector where automakers and battery manufacturers are forming joint ventures to ensure supply chain security and enhance production efficiency [5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Risks - The partnership model has been validated by other industry examples, such as BYD and FAW, indicating a mature paradigm for supply chain collaboration [5]. - However, risks associated with deep integration exist, such as potential impacts on short-term orders if vehicle models change, highlighting the need for a balanced supply chain strategy [5][6]. - Li Auto's simultaneous agreement with CATL for a five-year strategic partnership underscores the importance of supply chain diversification while maintaining competitive pressure on Sunwoda [6].