Core Viewpoint - The US-Vietnam trade agreement signals that tariffs on other countries may exceed the previously common threshold of 10% [1] Group 1 - Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote Bank indicates that the trade agreement suggests higher tariffs for other nations [1] - President Trump stated that the US will begin sending letters to various countries detailing tariff rates, which could range from 60% or 70% down to 10% and 20% [1] - Trump described these tariff rates as "cheap" and emphasized the desire to maintain a reasonable level [1] Group 2 - Trump mentioned that tariffs for smaller countries will largely remain unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that recent tariff increases and the appreciation of the euro are expected to negatively impact exports [1] Group 1 - The ECB highlighted concerns regarding the adverse effects of tariff hikes on trade dynamics [1] - The recent strengthening of the euro is anticipated to further challenge export competitiveness [1] - The combination of these factors may lead to a slowdown in economic growth within the eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary warns countries against delaying trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of timely discussions to avoid escalating trade tensions [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Meeting held today with EU negotiators to discuss ongoing trade issues [1] - Potential for tariffs to be raised to levels seen on April 2, indicating a significant escalation if negotiations do not progress [1] - The situation with the EU remains under close observation, highlighting the uncertainty in trade relations [1]

美国财长贝森特：警告各国不要拖延贸易谈判进程，关税可以上调回4月2日的水平。 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，美联储主席鲍威尔在7月1日讲话中回避了一个关于7月份的尖锐 问题，在距离召开FOMC货币政策会议还有四周之际，他拒绝排除任何可能性。他的整体言论几乎没有 暗示任何为本月降息做准备的努力。 最近，由于关税上调已被暂停，且早期（是否为时过早？）通胀数据尚未显示出显著效果，鲍威尔暗 示，如果通胀没有人们担心的那么严重，降息可能会恢复。 对7月份的关注（至少在今天）可能掩盖了最近几周他和其他人的言论中更微妙的转变。在美国总统特 朗普于4月2日发布关税公告后不久，人们就推测物价上涨幅度可能非常大，以至于需要有证据表明劳动 力市场出现实质性疲软才能降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In June, South Korea's exports rebounded, providing a temporary boost to the trade-dependent economy as companies accelerated shipments ahead of impending tariff increases on goods exported to the U.S. [1] Export and Import Data - June exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while overall imports rose by 3.3%, resulting in a trade surplus of $9.1 billion [1]. - The increase in exports is attributed to the urgency of companies to ship goods before the scheduled tariff hikes [1]. Tariff Concerns - South Korea's automotive and steel sectors, among others, are facing sector-specific tariffs on exports to the U.S. [1]. - Unless an agreement is reached, the overall tariff rate on other goods is set to rise from 10% to 25% starting July 9 [1]. - A senior trade official from South Korea indicated that expecting negotiations to conclude before the deadline is unrealistic, thus the focus is on seeking an extension and pursuing tariff exemptions [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, multiple factors for gold are intertwined, leading to an oscillating trend. In the medium - to long - term, the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Get Stronger, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" is maintained [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Key Information - On June 25, NATO leaders at the summit in The Hague passed a statement supporting an increase in the defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035 [2] - US President Trump stated during the NATO summit in The Hague that although the actual damage to Iranian nuclear facilities from the US - Israel joint air strikes was unclear, the cease - fire agreement marked a "victory for everyone" [2] - Fed Chairman Powell told members of Congress on Tuesday that tariff hikes this summer might start to push up inflation, which would be a crucial period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts [2] Price Logic - The recent gold price is affected by multiple factors. The easing of the Middle East tension weakens gold's safe - haven appeal, while the weakening dollar and Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the price. Market sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement [3] - Investors are waiting for the release of key US macroeconomic data (PCE) this week to find new trading directions. Powell's hawkish remarks briefly boosted the dollar and suppressed gold [3] - There are three contradictions for gold: the Fed's prudent monetary policy attitude, the better - than - expected US economic data earlier this week echoing the Fed's statement of a robust economy, and the recurring geopolitical risks [3] Mid - year Report View - The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. In terms of trading drivers, focus on the Fed's first interest rate cut this year, the credit evolution under the promotion of fiscal bills, and the possibility of repeated trade frictions. The upper limit for gold price this year is expected to be $3900 - 4000, and for silver, it is $39 - 40 [6] Outlook - The weekly range for COMEX gold is [3200, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [32, 35] [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging, with expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year due to persistent inflation and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [1] Economic Predictions - The last economic forecast from the FOMC was released on March 2, prior to Trump's tariff announcement, which has since disrupted the economic outlook [1] - The FOMC had previously anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2025, but analysts now suggest that only one cut in 2025 would not be surprising [1] Market Reactions - Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1] - A scenario where the dot plot indicates no rate cuts would be interpreted as "quite hawkish" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential increase in tariffs may complicate efforts to shield American consumers from rising costs, leading economists to predict that companies will implement more significant price hikes in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The accumulation of inventory prior to tariff increases may result in a delayed transmission of tariff effects [1] - The significant uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy could impact the speed at which companies adjust their prices [1] - There is a high likelihood of rising core goods inflation in the coming months [1]

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师表示，美国总统特朗普决定将铝进口关税提高一倍至50%，这可 能会推高铝价格及其用户的成本。 分析师表示，以每磅20美分作为消费者在美国实物市场购买铝的溢价基准水平，将关税上调至50% 将"意味着未来铝价格将进一步上涨，以保持金属流入"美国。 高盛分析师表示，溢价必须上升至每磅0.68美元至0.70美元之间，才能充分反映关税上调的影响。 摩根士丹利在给客户的报告中写道，特朗普加征的关税还可能对美国的现货铝采购产生影响，因为消费 者可能会等待观望，看是否会有所逆转或者该政策是否会有所豁免。美国进口大量的铝。 他们补充称，如果过剩的金属被转移到其他地区，其他地区的溢价也可能受到抑制。美国政府最初对铝 征收25%的关税，导致一些生产商将铝转移到欧洲，引发了欧洲铝溢价自2025年初以来下跌，并支持了 废铝从欧盟流向美国。 策略师们表示，市场似乎也在押注铝关税的上调将增加对铜进口征税的可能性，特朗普政府目前正在根 据1962年《贸易扩张法》第232条对铜进口征税进行调查。这可以作为针对特定行业征收关税的理由， 这些关税旨在促进对国家安全至关重要的商品的国内生产。 不过，摩根 ...