据经合组织测算，今年5月中旬美国对进口商品的实际关税税率从2024年的略高于2%上调至15.4%。佩 雷拉表示，这对美国来说已达到"1938年以来最高水平，而如果以4月9日宣布的关税水平来看将是19世 纪90年代以来最高"。 新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，将 2025和2026年全球经济增速均下调至2.9%。2日，该组织首席经济学家阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯·佩雷拉在报告 发布前的媒体吹风会上向法国媒体（接受法新社采访时）表示："由于关税，我们几乎下调了全球所有 经济体的经济增长预期……贸易受到了影响，尤其是消费和投资。" 佩雷拉3日在经济展望报告发布会上表示，当前全球经济经贸政策面临重大的、前所未有的不确定性， 对各项经济指标产生了深远影响。他提到，贸易的不确定性、美国贸易政策的剧烈变化是造成包括美 国、加拿大等国经济预期下调的重要原因。 经合组织将于3日至4日在巴黎举行部长级会议，美国和欧盟谈判代表也将在此次会议期间就关税问题进 行讨论。"我们有理由担心，保护主义和与贸易政策相关的不确定性将进一步加剧。"佩雷拉3日在部长 级会议开幕式上表示。 （文章来源：新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in consumer behavior in the U.S. as families increase savings in response to economic uncertainty and changing tariff environments [2][5][6] - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has shown signs of slowing down, with a notable decrease in the monthly growth rate of consumer spending from 0.7% in March to 0.2% in April [3][4] - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.9%, the highest level in a year, as consumers save a significant portion of their income growth [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is cautious about monetary policy, with recent data indicating a minimal increase in core inflation, which may not prompt a rate cut despite concerns over rising tariffs [3][4] - A survey indicates that a significant portion of high-income households is becoming more sensitive to prices, leading to reduced discretionary spending [5][6] - Many consumers are adopting cost-saving measures, such as cooking at home and changing service providers, reflecting a broader trend of increased savings and reduced spending [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which led to a significant increase in the gold market by nearly $28 on the same day [1] - Key economic data and policy events to watch this week include ADP employment data, non-farm payroll reports, public statements from Federal Reserve officials, and a crucial speech by Fed Chair Powell [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently under pressure below the key resistance level of $3325, with a bullish trend forming in the one-hour moving average system [3] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy involves taking short positions on gold if it rebounds to the $3325 resistance level, with a stop loss set at $3333 and a target range of $3310 to $3290 [3] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring the $3325 resistance level closely for potential trading opportunities [3]

港股黄金股集体走强，截至发稿，潼关黄金涨10.42%、赤峰黄金（600988）涨3.78%、珠峰黄金涨 3.24%、招金矿业涨0.91%。消息方面，关税问题再度引发市场担忧，比如美国总统特朗普表示，美国 将从6月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。受此消息刺激，COMEX黄金升至3330美 元。(智通财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - Gap Inc's stock has dropped significantly by 19.7% to $22.49 following a disappointing current-quarter guidance, which forecasts flat sales, failing to meet Wall Street's growth expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Despite the weak outlook, Gap reported a strong first quarter, beating earnings and revenue estimates with earnings of 51 cents per share on revenue of $3.46 billion [2] - Executives indicated that proposed tariff hikes by President Trump could result in a cost impact of $250 million to $300 million, although mitigation efforts may reduce this to $100 million to $150 million [2] Group 2: Analyst Reactions - At least four analysts have lowered their price targets for Gap, with Jefferies and UBS adjusting their targets to $26 and $17 from $29, respectively [3] - The current 12-month consensus target price still reflects a 22.6% premium over the current stock levels [3] Group 3: Stock Performance - The recent selloff has erased year-to-date gains, with the stock now down 4.4% and on track for a fifth consecutive daily loss, marking the worst weekly performance since 2021 [4] - The $22 level is acting as support, but the stock is likely to close below its 20-day moving average [4] Group 4: Options Market Activity - Options traders have reacted quickly, with over 32,000 calls and 30,000 puts traded, which is 14 times the average intraday volume [5] - The most active option is the weekly 5/30 22.50-strike put, with new positions being opened and set to expire at today's close [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **energy storage industry** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the **North American market** and the implications of tariffs on energy storage products [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Surge in Demand**: Anticipation of a tariff increase in 2026 has led to a rush in installations within the energy storage sector, with Q1 shipments showing a year-on-year increase of approximately **40%** [1]. - **Tariff Impact**: The current tariff level stands at **40.9%**, which includes VAT and customs duties. This has prompted leading companies to renegotiate order allocations, with expectations to fulfill annual supply within **90 days** [1][3]. - **Investment Returns**: Despite high tariffs, independent storage projects in California and Texas maintain attractive internal rates of return (IRR) of **15%-16%**, indicating strong investment appeal [1][2][3]. - **Market Leadership**: The U.S. energy storage market is noted as the most profitable globally, with significant installations even during high lithium carbonate prices in 2022, achieving revenues around **8%** [4][5]. - **Regional Performance**: California's market is experiencing a decline in capacity and spot market revenues due to increased installation ratios, while Texas shows significantly better growth and profitability [6]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Price reductions by companies like Tesla have limited impact on the market share of domestic firms, as they are also affected by tariffs, maintaining a stable presence in the U.S. market [7]. Additional Important Insights - **IRA Legislation**: The likelihood of the IRA Act removing subsidies for projects using Chinese equipment is low, as it would severely hinder the U.S. renewable energy sector [8]. - **Subsidy Dynamics**: Even with a potential cancellation of the **30% ITC subsidy**, certain projects in Texas could still achieve **7-8% IRR**, demonstrating ongoing investment viability [9]. - **Future Projections**: The U.S. is expected to install **45GW** of energy storage by 2025, with growth rates of **30%-35%** anticipated for 2026 and 2027, driven by increased storage adoption and power enhancements [16][17]. - **Middle East Market**: The Middle East is projected to see **30-35GWh** of energy storage projects by 2025, with significant competition and pricing pressures emerging [19][20]. - **European Market Challenges**: The European market is expected to grow significantly by 2024 or 2025, but faces challenges such as high competition and varying certification requirements across countries [23][26]. Conclusion - The energy storage industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in North America, despite challenges posed by tariffs and market dynamics. The profitability and investment attractiveness of the U.S. market remain strong, with ongoing developments in both domestic and international markets.

早些时候，美国总统特朗普发文称，"没有通胀，汽油、能源、食品杂货以及几乎所有其他商品的价格 都在下跌！美联储必须像欧洲和中国那样降低利率。'太迟先生'鲍威尔，为什么还在犹豫？这对正准备 繁荣发展的美国来说不公平。让一切顺其自然吧，这将是一件美好的事情！" 有"美联储传声筒"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos指出，美联储将没有理由因为4月的通胀数据而 改变其观望立场。这些数字在很大程度上符合密切跟踪劳工部衡量通胀方式的预测者的预期。如果不是 因为4月关税的广泛提高，通胀数据可能会使美联储有望很快恢复降息。但未来几个月成本的潜在上升 可能使美联储按兵不动，直到它能够更好地判断价格上涨是否是一次性的。 古尔斯比今年具有投票权，他表示："我们正在持续获得这些数据，至少表明情况还不错。我认为，在 有如此多的短期波动性时，期望企业或央行对一件事的长期影响仓促下结论是不现实的，这是一个非常 困难的环境。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周三表示，显示4月份消费者通胀温和的数据不一定反映出美国进口关税上升 的影响，美联储仍需要更多数据来辨别物价和经济的走向。 周二公布的数据显示，美国4月份CPI同比增速放缓至2.3%，是 ...

由于关税上调导致企业对经济前景和销售预期愈发悲观，美国小企业的信心在4月份连续第四个月恶 化。全国独立企业联合会(NFIB)的小企业乐观程度指数下滑1.6点至95.8，创下自去年10月以来的最低水 平。调查中的10个分项指标中有6项下降，下滑程度以商业形势预期指数和职位空缺指数为首。自2024 年底创下四年多高点以来，该总体指数已累计下跌9.3点，是自疫情以来可比时间段内的最大跌幅，显 示出企业信心可能与贸易政策相关的原因而发生急剧转变。小企业主也在等待美国国会议员就税收立法 给出明确信号。目前，预计未来六个月商业环境将改善的受访者比例降至15%，比3月份减少6个百分 点，连续第四个月下降。调查还显示，对销售前景的预期指数下降了4点。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey emphasized the need to monitor the pricing behavior of multinational companies affected by tariff increases [1]

标普：由于美国关税上调，本田汽车(HMC.N)的盈利能力可能将比之前预期的更大程度下降。 ...