Core Viewpoint - The innovation drug sector has experienced significant growth in 2023, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index rising over 98% year-to-date and more than 150% since its low in April 2022, indicating a strong market performance. However, recent adjustments have raised questions about potential bubbles and future performance in the sector [1][5][10]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index has increased over 98% year-to-date and more than 150% since April 2022, while the Wind Innovation Drug Index has risen over 46% in the same period [1]. - Recent adjustments began on July 30, with a maximum decline of -7.21% and a current adjustment of -6.25% [1][5]. - Fund managers believe that the current market for innovation drugs is experiencing a fundamental turning point, transitioning from a follower to a leader in the industry [5][10]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The investment value of innovation drugs remains promising, with a shift from broad market increases to selective stock picking expected [5][21]. - The current valuation of leading innovation drug companies in Hong Kong is still reasonable, with no signs of bubble formation, while some A-share companies may be overvalued due to speculative trading [12][13]. - The potential for profit in the innovation drug sector is substantial, with estimates suggesting future profits could reach 6000 to 7000 billion yuan, supporting a market capitalization of over 10 trillion yuan [18]. Group 3: Future Trends and Strategies - The innovation drug sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by unmet clinical needs and ongoing research and development [20][21]. - Investment strategies will focus on identifying companies with strong R&D capabilities and favorable competitive positions, while also considering valuation levels and risk-reward ratios [19][21]. - The overall market sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector has improved, potentially benefiting related fields such as innovative medical devices and CRO services [23][24].

【导读】 持续上涨后出现调整，后市怎么走？四位 基金经理解读创新药投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 今年以来，创新药板块行情可谓波澜壮阔。其中，港股创新药更是星光闪耀。 截至2025年8月 8 日，恒生港股通创新药指数年内涨幅超过98%，自去年4月低点以来，该指数涨幅更是超过150%。万得创新药指数年 内涨幅超过46%，去年低点以来最大涨幅也超过95%。其间，诞生了一批十倍、五倍牛股。 但在烈火烹油之后，现在似乎有了回调的迹象，最近几天医药股尤其创新药"风浪"有点大。本次调整从7月30日开始算起，已调整9天，指 数最大调整幅度 为 -7.21%，至今调整幅度是-6.25%。 由此也催生出一些问题，聚焦在：这一波行情到顶了吗？经过连续上涨后，当前板块是否已出现局部泡沫？未来医药股会如何演绎逻辑？ 哪些领域还有机会？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 中银基金基金经理 郑宁 平安医疗健康基金经理 周思聪 长城医药产业基金经理 梁福睿 在受访基金经理看来， 中国创新药当前正处于爆发增长态势，行业已迎来真正意义上的基本面拐点，并在逐渐完成从追赶者向引领者的转 变。 周思聪 ： 主要逻辑没有变化。创新药行情的底层逻 ...

Core Insights - The Guangdong Province is focusing on enhancing its biopharmaceutical and health industry through innovation and policy support, aiming to build global competitiveness in this sector [1] Policy Discussion - Guangdong's biopharmaceutical innovation policy is characterized by "full-chain empowerment" and "institutional openness," with significant reforms such as reducing the review time for Class II medical devices by 50% [3] - Despite favorable policies, companies face challenges in clinical research due to insufficient public hospital bed availability and conservative bank credit [3] - The Guangdong Provincial Drug Administration is seen as proactive and supportive in helping companies navigate regulatory processes [5] Funding Insights - There is a strong demand for long-term investment support from government funds and private capital in the biopharmaceutical sector, as the development cycle is lengthy [9] - The investment cycle for innovative drugs is long, and there is a call for the introduction of long-term capital models to better align with the needs of biopharmaceutical companies [11] - Investment institutions are encouraged to provide not only funding but also systematic support and understanding of the industry's long cycles [13] Transformation and Innovation - There is a notable lack of high-quality research outcomes that meet industry needs, prompting calls for reform in the current research evaluation system [15] - The transition from scientific research to commercial application is challenging, requiring solutions to both technical and market pressures [17] - Collaboration among medical, educational, and research sectors is essential for the development of the biopharmaceutical industry [19] International Expansion - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies are increasingly engaging in business development (BD) transactions, with 40% of significant deals in the first seven months of the year involving Chinese firms, up from 4-5% four years ago [21] - This trend indicates a growing international interest in Chinese innovative drugs and suggests that BD transactions are becoming a viable exit strategy for companies [21] AI and Technology Impact - AI is transforming the internet healthcare and biopharmaceutical sectors by enhancing efficiency and collaboration, although challenges such as data silos remain [23] Company Transformation - Traditional pharmaceutical companies in Guangdong are increasingly focusing on innovation, with one company reporting that 22.4% of its revenue was reinvested in R&D last year [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug market is not necessarily required to go overseas; instead, leading overseas pharmaceutical companies need innovative drug assets to supplement their pipelines [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Trends - The mid-year reporting season used to be a pressure period for the innovative drug industry, but now, with more innovative drugs approved, the performance outlook is optimistic [5][6][22]. - Many core pipelines and innovative drug companies have achieved continuous year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance releases, with some leading companies turning losses into profits [7][22]. Pricing and Valuation - Current pricing for many companies has not yet reached a fully optimistic level, indicating significant room for recovery in early pipeline, overseas expansion, and competitive landscape pricing [8][21]. - The market sentiment towards innovative drugs has reversed compared to previous years, leading to a more favorable pricing model for early-stage pipelines [21]. Future Policy and Industry Catalysts - Future policies are likely to focus more on drug quality and clinical benefits rather than solely on price reductions, signaling a more moderate approach [10][20]. - The industry still has many catalysts and important milestones ahead, with significant developments expected in both domestic and global innovative drug fields [10][20]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes three main investment lines: selecting high-quality innovative assets, traditional companies undergoing transformation, and companies with strong performance and valuation [25][26]. - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, and the company remains optimistic about its long-term potential [10][25]. Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with increasing interest and research focus leading to a more favorable environment for investment [21][27]. - The company believes that the innovative drug industry does not face significant potential downside risks, making it a worthwhile long-term investment [28].

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is experiencing increased volatility, with funds entering through ETFs despite market fluctuations, indicating a strong long-term trend in the industry [1][2] - From July 30 to August 7, a significant net subscription of 62.02 billion yuan was observed in innovative drug-themed ETFs, highlighting a clear intent for investors to buy on dips [1][2] - New innovative drug-themed ETFs have been launched, collectively raising 18.82 billion yuan, which injects fresh capital into the sector [2] Group 2 - Fund managers believe the innovative drug industry has a positive long-term outlook but has transitioned from a "sweet period" to a "deep water zone," necessitating a focus on companies with strong fundamentals [2][3] - Increased trading volume in recent days suggests a loosening of shares at high levels, indicating growing market divergence [3] - The expansion of medical insurance directories and the ongoing pilot programs for commercial insurance are expected to create broader market opportunities for innovative drugs [3] Group 3 - The investment strategy for innovative drugs is expected to change, including adjustments in overall positions and the realization of profits from crowded stocks, while also considering undervalued stocks [4]

在创新药赛道短期波动加大的背景下，市场上出现了较多对其"从主题投资到业绩兑现路径的确定 性"的讨论。 不过，部分公募人士对创新药板块仍有比较高的期待。他们认为，考虑到创新药每个季度在海外市 场的授权数量和金额不断增加，即便在市场波动的环境中，也体现出较强的韧性和吸引力。 "那些具备全球竞争力的创新药板块，可预见性相对较强，未来市值空间的可实现度和实现路径把 握相对较大，是医药行业里弹性最大的方向。"广发沪港深医药基金经理吴兴武认为，产业发展往往是 线性的，而股市行情常常以脉冲的方式演绎，这个现象不仅存在于创新药领域，也常见于很多产业趋势 驱动的行情。中期来看，如果按照产业趋势驱动投资节奏的框架，基于当前产业发展趋势的判断，创新 药行业大概率仍然可以持续发掘出投资机会。 吴兴武进一步分析，今年上半年，创新药在产业层面和市场偏好层面迎来阶段性共振。中国创新药 行业经过十年的进步，已经进入厚积薄发的发展阶段。尽管当前中国创新药企业的发展水平存在差异， 但整体而言，优质企业占据了较高比例。同时，中国创新药企业在国际化进程中稳步推进，每个季度在 海外市场的授权数量和金额不断增加，显示出行业的发展潜力。这也是其受到资金关 ...

恒生创新药ETF紧密跟踪恒生创新药指数，恒生创新药指数反映业务与创新药研究、开发及生产相关的 香港上市公司之表现。 恒生创新药ETF(159316)是目前市场上跟踪恒生创新药指数的唯一一支ETF产品，具备高弹性和稀缺 性，帮助投资者更好把握本轮港股创新药投资机遇。 截至2025年8月7日收盘，恒生创新药ETF(159316)换手39.66%，成交4.24亿元，市场交投活跃，全天获 资金净申购1900万份。 拉长时间看，截至8月6日，恒生创新药ETF(159316)最新规模达10.84亿元，创成立以来新高。资金流入 方面，恒生创新药ETF(159316)近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.60亿元。 消息面上，百济神州发布2Q25业绩：二季度实现收入13.2亿美元（同比+42%），其中产品收入13.0亿 美元。归母净利润0.9亿美元（同期亏损1.2亿美元），公司连续第二个季度实现单季度经常性业务扭 亏。管理层提高全年收入指引至5053 亿美元（前值4953 亿美元），并首次预计全年经营现金流转正。 8月6日，上海监印发《关于促进商业健康保险高质量发展助力生物医药产业创新的若干措施》，共涉及 18条举 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector within the pharmaceutical industry shows clear growth potential and is currently trending positively, driven by decreasing costs and increasing approvals [1][2] - The sales expense ratio for pharmaceutical companies has decreased from 14.33% in 2021 to 12.18% in Q1 2025, while financial expense ratio has dropped from 0.69% to 0.38%, indicating improved profitability for innovative drug companies [1] - The number of innovative drug approvals in the first half of this year has already surpassed the total for the entire previous year, highlighting a robust growth trajectory [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) has achieved a year-to-date net value growth rate exceeding 101%, ranking first among eight indices tracking Hong Kong innovative drugs [2] - The fund's share split on August 8 will lower the investment threshold, allowing for more flexible participation from investors [2] - The A-share innovative drug ETF (159992) and its linked funds have seen a net value growth rate of over 31% this year, indicating continued upward potential in the A-share innovative drug market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant collaborations in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in innovative drug development, indicating a strong growth potential in this sector [1][2] - Heng Rui Medicine has entered a collaboration agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the PDE3/4 inhibitor HRS-9821 and up to 11 other projects, with a total potential financial value of approximately $12 billion, including an upfront payment of $500 million [1] - The collaboration between Shiyao Group and Madrigal for the oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist SYH2086 has a total deal value of up to $2.075 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and potential milestone payments based on annual net sales [1] Group 2 - The innovation drug ETF by Guotai focuses on innovative drug companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, tracking 30 representative high-quality companies, which are characterized by strong R&D investment and significant pipeline potential [2] - The innovative drug industry is experiencing robust growth driven by continuous breakthroughs in international markets, policy incentives, and the steady improvement of Chinese innovative drug companies' R&D capabilities [2] - The ETF provides a convenient option for growth-oriented investors to capture the benefits of the innovative drug sector, with a strong emphasis on the industry's core growth momentum [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of CAR-T therapy in cancer treatment, highlighting its shift from a laboratory concept to a viable treatment option for patients with relapsed/refractory tumors [1] - The Chinese biopharmaceutical sector, particularly in cell therapy, is gaining significant attention from both domestic and international investors, with over $5 billion in business development (BD) transactions in 2024 alone [2] - The analysis aims to decode the investment logic in innovative drugs, focusing on the challenges and opportunities within the cell therapy landscape, particularly CAR-T [3] Industry Overview - The CAR-T market is characterized by a critical contradiction: while the therapy shows significant efficacy, its high costs (often exceeding 1 million yuan per treatment) limit patient access [5][6] - The demand for CAR-T therapy is substantial, with approximately 25,000 new cases of multiple myeloma and 60,000 new cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma annually in China, yet many patients are deterred by the high costs [5] Payment System Challenges - Commercial health insurance currently supports CAR-T therapy, but only 42% of the available plans explicitly cover CAR-T treatments, with reimbursement rates for pre-existing condition patients being particularly low [6] - For widespread adoption, the cost of CAR-T treatments must drop below 300,000 yuan, which would allow for basic medical insurance coverage [6] Cost Reduction Strategies - The high costs of CAR-T therapy stem from its personalized and high-tech production model, but technological advancements are expected to reduce these costs significantly [9][10] - Key factors influencing cost reduction include: 1. **Vector Technology**: Transitioning from viral to non-viral vectors can reduce costs by 30%-50% [9] 2. **Autologous vs. Allogeneic**: Allogeneic CAR-T can lower costs to one-third or half of autologous CAR-T by enabling batch production [10] 3. **Production Processes**: Automation can reduce production time from over 14 days to about 30 hours, cutting costs by over 40% [11] Investment Analysis Framework - The analysis will evaluate nine CAR-T companies based on several dimensions, including: 1. **Technology Iteration and Cost Control**: Assessing the core technology routes and potential for cost reduction [13] 2. **Market Potential**: Estimating the patient population for various indications [14] 3. **Economic Viability and Market Access**: Identifying which companies are likely to secure market access based on cost control and pipeline potential [15] 4. **International Expansion Opportunities**: Evaluating the potential for products in international markets [16] 5. **Commercialization Capabilities**: Analyzing sales figures, production capacity, and investment relationships [17] Company-Specific Insights - The analysis focuses on nine leading CAR-T companies in China, which are at the forefront of CAR-T development, including those with approved products and those in critical clinical stages [18] - Each company's technology route and cost assessment will be detailed, highlighting their strategies for cost reduction and market positioning [26][30] Future Directions - The article anticipates that the adoption of allogeneic CAR-T technology will significantly reduce costs in the mid-term (2025-2028) and further advancements in non-viral vector technology will continue to drive down costs in the long term [24][25]