Market Performance - On September 11, both stocks and bonds rose, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices increasing by 5.32% and 5.15% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rose by 1.65% and 2.31%[2] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 460.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] Fund Flows - On September 10, stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.8 billion yuan, continuing a slight outflow trend[3] - The financing balance increased by 5.8 billion yuan, with leveraged funds adding positions in electronics, computers, and machinery, which saw respective increases of 2.07 billion yuan, 580 million yuan, and 450 million yuan[3] Sector Performance - AI-related sectors showed significant strength, with optical modules and circuit boards rising by 9.77% and 7.59% respectively[3] - In the commodity market, industrial silicon, coking coal, and polysilicon led the gains, with increases of 2.5%, 2.3%, and 1.9% respectively[8] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.83% before retreating to around 1.80% by the end of the day, indicating market volatility and differing investor sentiments regarding the central bank's bond-buying expectations[6] - The central bank's recent reverse repos totaled 74.9 billion yuan and 79.4 billion yuan, contributing to a shift in funding rates from rising to falling[7] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential risks from unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts, which could impact market stability[11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up by 4.93 points or 0.13%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4445.36, increasing by 9.11 points or 0.21%[1] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell to 474.40, down by 3.01 points or -0.63%[1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume for the day was 2.00 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by 6 billion yuan[2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with a notable reduction in trading volume indicating uncertainty among investors[5] Sector Analysis - From September 2 to 9, stock ETFs saw significant net inflows in the brokerage sector, with 4.295 billion yuan into securities ETFs and 2.627 billion yuan into brokerage ETFs[3] - The non-bank financial and metals sectors also saw inflows of 4.7 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating a shift in investment focus[3] Technology Sector Insights - AI computing power rebounded, with Oracle projecting a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure business to reach 18 billion USD this year, significantly exceeding market expectations[4] - The market's upward movement is not solely concentrated in AI, as sectors like ice and snow tourism, and healthcare services also showed strength, indicating a diversification of investment interests[4] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose to 1.829% and 2.108% respectively, reflecting increased selling pressure in the bond market[7] - The central bank initiated a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan, shifting the funding environment towards balance[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[9]

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index increased by 3.7%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index rose by 2.7% [1] - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index and the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index both saw a 2.0% increase, and the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index rose by 1.8% [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) experienced a net subscription of 6 million units in half a day, with a net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan in the past month, bringing its total scale to over 2 billion yuan, a record high [1] Index Performance - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index consists of no more than 50 stocks primarily involved in innovative drug research and development, representing the leading companies in A-share innovative drugs [5] - The index has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 57.3 times and has appreciated by 88.1% since its inception [6] - The CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, which focuses on leading A-share biotechnology companies, also consists of no more than 50 stocks involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, and other human biotechnology sectors, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 62.3 times and an appreciation of 82.1% since its inception [7] Sector Coverage - The CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index covers leading companies in the pharmaceutical and health industry, including segments such as chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and medical devices [8] - This index has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 33.0 times and has appreciated by 60.2% since its inception [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of the A-share ETF market in China, particularly focusing on the actions of the national team and the macroeconomic environment affecting the market [1][2][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **ETF Holdings and Changes**: As of mid-2025, the national team holds approximately 1.3 trillion RMB in A-share ETFs, representing 42% of the total market size, an increase of about 5 percentage points from the end of the previous year. Significant increases were noted in broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300, which saw an increase of over 30 billion shares [2][14]. - **Sector Performance**: The national team increased holdings in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and liquor while reducing positions in healthcare, food and beverage, and 5G communication ETFs. Notably, the chemical and liquor ETFs experienced substantial net inflows in August [2][14]. - **Market Liquidity**: The central bank maintained a net injection of nearly 500 billion RMB, with a focus on MLF operations, leading to a slight increase in money market rates. The credit spread narrowed by approximately 4 basis points [5]. - **Stock Market Activity**: The overall A-share market saw a 1.9% increase, with daily trading volumes approaching 3 trillion RMB. Net inflows into the market reached 130 billion RMB, driven by accelerated financing [6][15]. - **Retail Investor Behavior**: Retail investors showed increased market participation, with direct inflows of 113.4 billion RMB and a shift to net inflows of 68 billion RMB through public and private funds [7][15]. - **Leverage and Foreign Investment**: Leverage funds saw a significant net inflow of 105.3 billion RMB, marking a new high for the year. Foreign investment also increased, with northbound trading accounting for 14% of total trading volume, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese stock market [8][9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Fundraising and New Issuance**: Public funds raised over 20 billion RMB in new shares, with passive products dominating the market. The flexible allocation funds reached a record high of over 70% in equity positions [11][15]. - **ETF Performance**: The performance of various ETFs showed divergence, with broad-based ETFs experiencing outflows while industry-specific ETFs saw significant inflows, particularly in TMT and cyclical sectors [12][15]. - **Market Indicators**: The "stock-exchange hedging" indicator reached a warning zone, suggesting potential market corrections, while the AH hedging index indicated that A-shares were outperforming H-shares but had not yet entered a warning zone [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share ETF market, investor behavior, and macroeconomic influences.

Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. has maintained a steady approach in ETF investments during the first half of the year, increasing holdings in 12 ETF products, resulting in a total ETF market value of 1.28 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and accounting for approximately 30% of the total ETF market size [1][3]. ETF Investment Summary - Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. increased its holdings in 12 ETF products, including major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and others [2][3]. - The estimated total expenditure for the 12 ETF products was over 210 billion yuan based on average transaction prices [3]. - As of the end of Q2, Central Huijin Investment and its subsidiary held a total ETF market value of 1.28 trillion yuan, which is a record high [3]. Performance of ETFs - The ETFs heavily invested by Central Huijin have shown significant returns, with several ETFs experiencing year-to-date gains exceeding 35% [5]. - Specific ETFs such as the E Fund and Huaxia funds have reported substantial increases, with the CSI 500 ETF and others showing gains around 25% [5]. Asset Management Plans - Central Huijin Asset Management's single asset management plans have also been active, holding over 9.8 billion yuan in ETF market value as of the end of Q2 [6]. - These plans have increased holdings in various thematic ETFs, including those focused on pharmaceuticals, military, and semiconductor sectors [6]. Reduction in Holdings - Some reductions were noted in specific ETFs, including the GF Internet ETF and others, indicating a selective approach in managing the portfolio [7].

Group 1 - The index focuses on leading innovative drug companies in the A-share market, consisting of no more than 50 stocks primarily involved in innovative drug research and development [4] - As of the midday close, the index has decreased by 1.5%, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 53.3 times and a valuation increase of 80.9% since its launch [5] - The biotechnology ETF tracks the China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index, which also focuses on leading biotechnology companies in the A-share market, comprising stocks related to gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology [6][7] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical ETF tracks the CSI 300 Healthcare Index, focusing on leading companies in the A-share pharmaceutical and healthcare sector, covering segments such as chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and medical devices [9] - As of the midday close, this index has decreased by 0.4%, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 31.1 times and a valuation increase of 48.5% since its launch [10]

Group 1 - The index focuses on leading innovative drug companies in the A-share market, consisting of no more than 50 stocks primarily involved in innovative drug research and development [3] - As of the midday close, the index has increased by 0.5% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 53.0 times, reflecting an 80.5% increase in valuation since its launch [4] Group 2 - The biotechnology ETF tracks the China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index, focusing on leading biotechnology companies in the A-share market, including those involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, and blood products [5] - As of the midday close, the biotechnology index has remained unchanged at 0.0% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 55.6 times, indicating a 67.4% increase in valuation since its inception [5] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical ETF tracks the CSI 300 Healthcare Index, concentrating on leading companies in the A-share healthcare sector, covering segments such as chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and medical devices [6] - As of the midday close, the pharmaceutical index has increased by 0.2% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 31.0 times, showing a 47.9% increase in valuation since its launch [7]

Market Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index increased by 1.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rose by 1.3% [1] - The China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index and the China Securities Innovative Drug Industry Index both saw an increase of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [1] - The CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index grew by 0.6% [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) experienced a net subscription of 18 million units, reaching a record high of 1.26 billion yuan [1] Index Details - The Biotechnology ETF tracks the China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index, which focuses on leading A-share biotechnology companies involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology [4] - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Biotechnology Theme Index is 55.3 times, with a valuation percentile of 0.7% [5] - The Pharmaceutical ETF tracks the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index, covering major companies in the pharmaceutical and health sector, including chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and medical devices [6][7] - The rolling P/E ratio for the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index is 30.7 times, with a valuation percentile of 45.7% [7] ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF is the only ETF tracking the innovative drug index, with a low management fee of 0.15% per year and a custody fee of 0.05% per year [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of ETF products has varied in the past two weeks. Among the major broad - based ETFs, the CSI 2000 ETF had the largest increase, and among the industry and theme products, the military industry ETF had the largest increase. The fund flow trends of different types of ETFs have also changed, with some showing accelerated inflows, some turning from inflows to outflows, and others showing a slowdown in inflows [2][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Type ETF Fund Flow Overview - **Return Performance**: As of August 8, in the past two weeks, ETF products showed mixed performance. Among the major broad - based ETFs, the CSI 2000 ETF had the largest increase, and among the industry and theme products, the military industry ETF had the largest increase [9]. - **Fund Flow**: In the past two weeks, among the major broad - based ETFs, the CSI 2000 ETF had a net inflow of funds, while the CSI 300 ETF had the largest net outflow of funds [9]. 3.1.2 Main Type ETF Cumulative Fund Flow - **Broad - based ETF**: Since 2025, the fund flow of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflow to inflow and then to outflow. The A - series ETFs have had continuous outflows. As of August 8, the Science and Technology/Innovation ETFs, A - series ETFs, and CSI 500 ETFs have all had net outflows. In the past two weeks, the net outflow speed of broad - based ETFs has accelerated, except for the A - series ETFs, whose net outflow speed has slowed down [10]. - **Industry and Theme/Strategy ETF**: The technology ETF has seen an increase in the inflow speed in the past two weeks. The pharmaceutical ETF has turned from net outflow to net inflow, the new energy ETF has turned from net inflow to net outflow, and the consumer ETF has seen an accelerated inflow. The inflow speed of the dividend, cycle, financial real estate, and large - manufacturing ETFs has slowed down [2][14]. - **Bond ETF**: In 2025, the credit bond and treasury bond ETFs have had the largest net inflows. In the past two weeks, there has been a large inflow of funds into the credit bond ETF, the local bond ETF has turned from net outflow to net inflow, the net inflow speed of the treasury bond ETF has slowed down, and the convertible bond and short - term financing ETFs have seen an accelerated net inflow [14]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - **Newly Established Products**: As of August 8, a total of 13 new ETFs have been established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.152 billion, all of which are stock ETFs [2][17]. - **Scale Change**: Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scale of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs has increased by 204.20%, 106.93%, 45.79%, 22.68%, and 2.55% respectively [2]. 3.1.4 Manager Scale Distribution - As of August 8, Huaxia Fund has the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 79.1655 billion yuan. E Fund's ETF management scale has expanded by nearly 30 billion yuan compared with a year ago [18]. 3.2 Classification - based ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Products tracking communication equipment - related indices have performed well in the past two weeks [24]. - **Fund Flow**: Products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index had the largest net inflow of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the animation and game index had a net outflow of funds [27]. 3.2.2 Dividend Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: ETF products tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Yield Selection index had the largest increase in yield in the past two weeks [30]. - **Fund Flow**: Products tracking the S&P China A - Share Large - Cap Dividend Low - Volatility 50 index had the largest net inflow of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend index had a net outflow of funds [34]. 3.2.3 Consumption Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Products tracking the China Education index have performed well in the past two weeks, and products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index have a relatively high premium rate [37]. - **Fund Flow**: ETFs tracking the 800 Consumption index had the largest net inflow of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking household appliances had a net outflow of funds [40]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Products tracking innovation - drug indices such as the Hang Seng Innovation - Drug index have performed well in the past two weeks [42]. - **Fund Flow**: Not fully provided in the content 3.3 Hot - Theme ETF Tracking - Not fully provided in the content

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Directly extract factors from industry index data such as volume, price, and valuation, and update the factor library at the end of each quarter[30] - **Model Construction Process**: The model adopts weekly frequency rebalancing, selecting the top five industries with the highest composite multi-factor scores for equal-weight allocation every weekend[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved an absolute return of 28.79% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.68 percentage points[30] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 31.39% - Annualized Volatility: 18.12% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.73 - Maximum Drawdown: -19.63% - Calmar Ratio: 1.60 - Last Week Performance: 3.15% - Year-to-Date (YTD): 28.79%[32] Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The asset allocation weights are mainly calculated based on the recent trends of various assets, with stronger trend assets assigned higher weights. The internal equity asset allocation weights directly adopt the monthly views of the monthly frequency industry rotation model[34] - **Model Construction Process**: The model's latest holdings include dividend style ETFs and ETFs related to pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, media, steel, and energy chemicals[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has risen by 0.34% last week and has accumulated a 5.69% return this year[34] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 6.52% - Annualized Volatility: 3.81% - Maximum Drawdown: 4.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.71 - Calmar Ratio: 1.40 - Year-to-Date (YTD): 5.69% - Last Week Performance: 0.34%[39] Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict future returns of global major assets using a cycle three-factor pricing model, and construct the portfolio using a "momentum selects assets, cycle adjusts weights" risk budgeting framework[40] - **Model Construction Process**: The strategy currently overweights bonds and foreign exchange, with higher risk budgets assigned to assets such as Chinese bonds and US bonds[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 7.22% in the backtest period, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50[40] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 7.22% - Annualized Volatility: 4.82% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.50 - Calmar Ratio: 1.12 - Year-to-Date (YTD): -3.04% - Last Week Performance: 0.61%[41] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: Construct sentiment indicators from the perspectives of the put-call ratio, implied volatility, and basis in the options and futures markets[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Put-Call Ratio**: Observe the ratio of the trading volume of call options to put options in the 50ETF and 500ETF options markets[17] - **Implied Volatility**: Construct the implied volatility ratio series of call and put options[20] - **Basis**: Construct the annualized basis rate weighted by the open interest for the four major stock index futures products[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The sentiment indicators show that the previous overheating sentiment in the A-share market has continued to ease[2] Factor Backtesting Results Sentiment Indicators - **Put-Call Ratio**: The ratio has significantly fallen from the high levels observed on July 23, indicating a more rational market sentiment[17] - **Implied Volatility Ratio**: Despite the stock market rebound last week, the implied volatility ratio of call options to put options has been trending downward, further reflecting rational investor sentiment[20] - **Annualized Basis Rate**: The basis rate has been fluctuating downward, indicating rational sentiment in the futures market[26]