Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.

Group 1: China's Dominance in Key Elements - China dominates the global production of critical elements, with a 99% share in gallium, over 70% in magnesium, tungsten, and natural graphite, and 69% in rare earth elements [1][2] - In 2024, China's share of global production in key elements for the electronic manufacturing industry is projected to exceed 90% [3] - The importance of these elements is significant, as gallium is essential for 5G communication and artificial intelligence, while rare earth elements are crucial for missile guidance systems [5] Group 2: Global Dependency on Chinese Supply - The global electronic manufacturing industry heavily relies on Chinese supply chains, with 90% of solar cells depending on Chinese gallium and 70% of lithium battery anode materials relying on Chinese natural graphite [5] - A reduction in Chinese exports could severely impact industries such as renewable energy and defense technology, leading to potential disruptions in production efficiency [5] Group 3: China's Export Control Strategy - China's export controls are a strategic choice to ensure domestic industry stability amid rising global demand and geopolitical risks [6] - The measures are also a response to Western attempts to reduce dependency on Chinese critical elements, exemplified by the U.S. blocking Chinese acquisitions of overseas rare earth mines [7] Group 4: Implications of Export Controls - Export controls may drive domestic companies towards technological innovation and higher value-added production, moving away from low-end exports that have historically resulted in environmental damage [9] - These measures could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, with Western countries attempting to increase local mining efforts, though facing challenges in cost and technology [9] - China's actions may also influence global resource governance rules, shifting the balance of power in resource distribution and allowing China to set new standards [11]

国联期货能化估值策略周报 强弱分化延续，不可过分看空 2025年11月9日 林菁 从业资格证号：F03109650 投资咨询证号：Z0018461 核心要点及策略 逻辑观点 原油：维持谨慎偏多（布伦特63-69），进一步上行驱动依赖地缘。 地缘因素：美委、美尼地缘摩擦边际变化，市场对冲突溢价反应敏感。 风险点 地缘政治缓和、原油超预期累库、宏观流动性抽紧 2 目录 CONTENTS 能化周度市场表现 04 原油数据跟踪 08 01 02 能化产业链基差数据 15 03 策略观点 能化品：整体强弱为聚酯＞纯苯苯乙烯＝甲醇聚烯烃，"多配PX、PTA，空配甲醇聚烯烃"仍可谨慎持有，但需警惕估值 改善及年底结算平仓带来的影响，不可过分看空。 原油：EIA库存显示美油表需回升、小幅累库、炼厂预期外降负较多、汽油表需回落维持去库，季节性需求下降阶段性完 成；当前汽柴油裂差表现良好，后续转入对取暖油需求的关注。沙特-亚洲升水下调，市场情绪转弱。边际仍为地缘。 聚酯：PX开工上升、TA及EG开工下降；聚酯及下游开工稳中有升、持续好于预期；产业链库存回升。检修因素或继续 支持TA加工费，外部环境缓和及过年偏晚等因素或支持聚酯下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over interest rate cuts and strong demand for safe-haven assets, alongside weak manufacturing data from Asia and the US. As of November 7, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $63.63 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising by 4.47% as of November 7, 2025, compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][13]. - The report highlights significant increases in US crude oil imports and a rise in total crude oil inventory, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [49][53]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down $1.14 (-1.76%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures also fell by $1.14 (-1.87%) to $59.84 per barrel [22][24]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs remained stable at 369, and floating drilling rigs at 130 as of November 3, 2025 [26]. Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.651 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was stable at 414 [40][41]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing increased to 15.256 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, with a refinery utilization rate of 86.00%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous week [52]. Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 831 million barrels as of October 31, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.7 million barrels (+0.69%) from the previous week [53]. Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $102.44, $80.90, and $94.67 per barrel, respectively, as of November 7, 2025 [82][86].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting at the White House on November 7 highlighted the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding Hungary's energy dependence on Russia, with Trump suggesting a potential exemption for Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil, which could undermine the collective sanctions imposed by the US and EU against Russia [1][16]. Group 1: Hungary's Energy Dependency - Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy, with 74% of its natural gas and 86% of its oil sourced from Russia, making it one of the EU's most dependent countries on Russian energy [3][4]. - The lack of a seaport severely limits Hungary's ability to import alternative energy sources, as its industrial infrastructure is designed to process Russian crude oil, making a switch to other sources technically challenging and costly [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The recent sanctions imposed by the US and EU on Russian oil and liquefied natural gas have led to a spike in international oil prices, which has not significantly harmed Russia but has put pressure on European allies like Hungary [4][11]. - Trump's comments suggest that Hungary's situation is not unique, with other landlocked countries like Slovakia facing similar dilemmas regarding energy supply and reliance on Russian resources [4][11]. Group 3: Strategic Calculations - Trump's willingness to consider an exemption for Hungary appears to be a strategic move to maintain alliances and pressure other European nations to align with US policies regarding Russian energy [6][7]. - Hungary's energy crisis has prompted it to develop infrastructure that could position it as a key player in the Central European energy market, potentially replacing Austria as a distribution hub for natural gas [7][14]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The exemption for Hungary is not guaranteed, as it may come with conditions, such as purchasing $6 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, indicating a transactional nature to the arrangement [8][12]. - The potential for other countries to seek similar exemptions could create further fractures in the EU's collective sanctions strategy against Russia, undermining the intended pressure on the Kremlin [12][13].

此类报道的共同点在于（澳大利亚的一些）媒体习惯性地将中国当成武器，塞入每条标题，即便报道本 身是平衡的，即便中国并非主角，即便中企只是全球供应链的一环，仍会重构叙事框架，塞进地缘政治 剧本。 不管你叫它什么——反正绝不是新闻报道，这是披着公共服务外衣的低俗地缘政治，正像腐蚀钢铁的酸 液一般侵蚀着我们的公共领域。更令人愤慨的是，新闻集团的记者们似乎心知肚明。这些报道的正文都 体现着专业认知，真正注入敌意的，是标题和叙事框架。编辑部的尾巴在左右报道的狗。 比亚迪没有攻击我们。现代汽车也未投降。磷虾捕捞涉及所有相关国家，并非中国阴谋。我们的记者或 许该摆脱将中国塑造成永恒反派的执念了。否则，一场"全面入侵"真的只需几个标题就能实现（在纸面 上）。 原标题：澳大利亚媒体：该摆脱"甩锅中国"的执念了 近期，澳大利亚新闻集团记者关注了南极海洋生物考察、电动汽车新品发布会、跨国车企供应链战略。 每篇报道都包含事实、行业背景。但毫无例外，每篇报道都套用了相同的叙事框架：地缘政治威胁、中 国"侵略"…… 海洋保护还是"海洋攻势"？新闻集团报道了打击南极磷虾过度捕捞行动，指出捕捞磷虾的主要是挪威企 业，而韩国、智利和乌克兰等国正 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil showed a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums declined, and demand entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus strengthened, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will exert long - term pressure on oil prices, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support and increase price volatility. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - **Market Focus**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, with the US increasing military deployments in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory has significantly increased. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year [7]. - **Key Data**: For the week ending October 31, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 5.202 million barrels (expected 603,000 barrels, previous value - 6.858 million barrels); the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 30,000 barrels (previous value 133,400 barrels); the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 49,800 barrels (previous value 53,300 barrels) [7]. - **Main Ideas**: Crude oil is in a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums have declined, and demand has entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus is increasing, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Consensus reached in China - US economic and trade consultations; weakening fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This can relieve short - term supply pressure but does not change the long - term supply increase situation [12]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Gaza Strip, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, and intensified US - Venezuela relations bring uncertainties. Geopolitical factors have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply but will increase price volatility [13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a divergence among Fed officials on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [16]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing industry and easing inflation pressure [16]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week ending October 31, US domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 1,365.1 million barrels per day, reaching a new high for the year. The number of US oil rigs remained flat at 414, expected to stay low this year [17][20]. - **Demand Side**: US refinery operating rates decreased, and European 16 - country refinery operating rates showed a downward trend. Chinese refinery operating rates were divided, with state - owned refineries experiencing a slight decline and independent refineries rising. Refinery profits in China decreased [23][29][36]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased while gasoline inventory decreased. US crude oil cracking spreads increased slightly [45][49][50]. 5. Future Outlook - The factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will suppress oil prices in the long term, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [53].

Report Summary - The report reviews the weekly situation of asphalt, covering macro - analysis, supply - demand analysis, and provides trading strategies and market outlooks [7][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a one - sided decline, hitting a new low for the year. It is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers, with the downstream entering the off - season and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [8][54] - The operation should avoid chasing short positions due to the large short - term decline. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [8][54] Summary by Directory 01 Report Abstract - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela, a significant increase in US EIA crude oil inventory, and OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026 [7] - Key data: As of November 5, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 29.7%, down 1.8 percentage points; as of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons; the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; the social inventory was 897,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [7] 02 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Macro - improvement, geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand, OPEC+ production increase [11] 03 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ production adjustment: Increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026. It may relieve short - term supply pressure, but the long - term supply surplus expectation remains [12] - Geopolitical situation: The Gaza situation may heat up, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and US - Venezuela relations are tense. Geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil price fluctuations [13] - Fed policy and economic data: There is a divergence on a December rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected, indicating continued inflation pressure relief [16] 04 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The operating rate was 29.7% as of November 5, down 1.8 percentage points. Supply pressure is expected to decline [17][25] - Demand: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt shipment was 445,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 10.42%, down 4.6 percentage points from last week. Demand is facing weakening pressure [26][29] - Inventory: As of November 7, the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; as of October 24, the social inventory was 1,005,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [36][43] - Spread: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt processing dilution profit was - 593.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton. The basis was 321 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude ratio was 53.09 as of November 5 [52] 05 Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers. Avoid chasing short positions. Focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [54]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the EU's urgent need to secure its position in the global supply chain for rare earth materials, especially in light of recent US-China negotiations that paused restrictions on these resources [1][3][4] - The EU's dependency on China for rare earths is alarmingly high, with nearly 98% reliance, making any supply disruptions a significant concern for its manufacturing sectors [4][6] - The establishment of a "special channel" for EU companies to gain priority access to rare earth resources is a strategic move to prevent being sidelined by the US [6][14] Group 2 - The EU's anxiety reflects its historical struggle for strategic autonomy, often lagging in response to major geopolitical events between the US and China [9][12] - Internal divisions among EU member states complicate its negotiating position, with differing approaches to China affecting overall strategy [11][12] - The EU's dual strategy aims to maintain trade relations with China while simultaneously developing local resources and diversifying supply chains, as evidenced by recent initiatives in Estonia [15][17] Group 3 - The EU is pushing forward with the "Critical Raw Materials Act" to reduce dependency on single countries, indicating a long-term strategy to secure its resource needs [17] - China's response to the EU's request for a special channel shows a willingness to cooperate while maintaining its regulatory framework, highlighting a pragmatic approach to international trade [17] - The ongoing competition for rare earth resources is emblematic of broader global supply chain dynamics and geopolitical tensions, with both the EU and China seeking to balance their interests [17]

文︱陆弃 这次增产决定，也再次提醒世界：石油市场从未只关乎能源，更关乎地缘政治。沙特和俄罗斯的每一次 出手，不仅调整的是桶油的数量，更在拉动美元流动、影响通胀预期，甚至在无形中影响国际贸易和经 济增长速度。全球经济似乎在一张看不见的油价网络上颤抖，每一次供应调整，都像一根触发器，可能 引发连锁反应。 市场反应自然立刻显现。投资者既担心供应过剩导致油价下跌，也不得不考虑制裁和地缘紧张对供应链 的制约。油价的波动性，再次让世界明白，能源不是商品那么简单，它是一种战略资源，是国际博弈中 的筹码。增产背后，是沙特和俄罗斯的自信，也是对全球市场情绪的精准操控。 更深一层看，这场石油会议提醒我们：能源安全仍然是全球经济的核心议题。即便新能源技术发展迅 速，但石油依然是工业、运输和经济运行的基础。增产的13.7万桶，不只是数字，它意味着船只、飞 机、工厂、汽车和每一个依赖燃料的人都在感受着市场的呼吸。每一滴油，都牵动着全球经济神经，每 一次开闸，都可能引发微妙的连锁反应。 当世界还沉浸在经济复苏的幻想里，沙特和俄罗斯牵头的"欧佩克+"在11月2日的视频会议上悄悄按下 了全球油市的"开关"。八国部长一致决定，自12月起每日增 ...