Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The oil price has shown volatility, with WTI closing at $99.64, up $1.41, and Brent at $120.93, up $3.85 as of March 27 [16][17] - The report indicates that the oil market is experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, which could lead to supply disruptions [15][17] - Refining margins for major refineries averaged 2,353.1 CNY/ton, an increase of 526.69 CNY/ton from the previous period, indicating a recovery in refining profitability [14][15] - The polyester sector is facing weak demand, with average profit levels for polyester products showing mixed results, highlighting the ongoing cost and demand challenges [15][17] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index with a slight decline of 0.10% [10] - The oil and gas resource index decreased by 0.49%, while the polyester index increased by 2.71% [10] Oil Sector - Oil prices are on an upward trend amidst geopolitical tensions, with significant fluctuations expected to continue [15][17] - U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.657 million barrels per day, with a net import increase [16][17] Refining Sector - Domestic refinery operating rates decreased to 71.99%, reflecting weaker demand and high raw material costs [15][17] - The average refining margin for independent refineries was reported at 245 CNY/ton, indicating a significant decline [14][15] Polyester Sector - The average profit for polyester products such as POY150D and FDY150D has decreased, reflecting ongoing market challenges [15][17] - PTA processing fees have shown volatility, with current fees at 180.43 CNY/ton, indicating pressure on profitability [15][17] Olefin Sector - Ethylene prices increased to 10,175 CNY/ton, while propylene prices rose to 8,800 CNY/ton, reflecting supply and demand dynamics [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that international oil prices continue to rise, impacting the supply and transportation of petrochemical products due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. It emphasizes the need to focus on large energy state-owned enterprises, leading companies in coal chemical with stable and relatively low-cost raw material supply, and fine chemical leaders with favorable supply-demand dynamics [1][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of March 23-29, 2026, among 100 tracked chemical products, 59 saw price increases, 13 experienced declines, and 28 remained stable. 83% of products had month-on-month average prices rising, while 11% fell, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included methionine, formaldehyde (East China), and epoxy propane (East China) [10][34] Investment Recommendations - As of March 29, 2026, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 29.30, at the 84.18% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.58, at the 73.33% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 16.79, at the 50.72% historical percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.59, at the 54.82% historical percentile. The report suggests focusing on traditional chemical leaders with resilience and potential for performance and valuation improvement, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" measures [10][13] Key Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases for melamine and epoxy propane. Melamine prices rose to 8,247 CNY/ton, up 25.75% week-on-week and 49.24% year-on-year. Epoxy propane prices reached 12,800 CNY/ton, increasing by 21.33% week-on-week and 67.54% year-on-year. The price increases are attributed to geopolitical impacts and rising raw material costs [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tin supply side has marginally improved compared to before the holiday, but it is still constrained by the tight raw material situation. With the mining and recycling ends under pressure, the smelting capacity release is slow, and short - term supply increments are expected to be limited. The tin demand side also shows marginal improvement, and short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. Considering recent geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 300,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 40,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In February, the total domestic tin ore imports remained at a relatively high level. The domestic tin ore imports in February were about 17,100 tons, equivalent to about 5,034 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% and a year - on - year increase of 96.04%. The recovery of supply from Myanmar was the main source of the increase. High - frequency data suggests that the tin ore imports from Myanmar in March are expected to remain at a relatively high level [12] - Supply side: This week, the tin supply side continued the post - holiday recovery but with limited upward movement. After the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday lows. Yunnan's复产 rhythm is relatively faster, while Jiangxi's recovery amplitude is relatively limited. However, this week's increase in operating rates is mainly a post - holiday routine recovery, not driven by improved raw materials or increased demand, so its sustainability and upward elasticity are limited. Yunnan's smelters are still affected by the tight tin ore supply, and the import of raw materials is not smooth, restricting further output release. Jiangxi is mainly constrained by the slow recovery of the scrap tin recycling system, with insufficient arrival of recycled raw materials and low enterprise raw material inventories, which hinder the increase in operating rates [12] - Demand side: This week, the tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, downstream consumption contracted significantly. In March, there has been no substantial improvement. Traditional consumption sectors are still weak, and demand release is lower than expected. Photovoltaic demand has slightly improved, but the actual consumption increment is not significant, and its boosting effect on overall demand is limited. The production schedule in the household appliance sector has increased in March, indicating marginal demand recovery, but the recovery slope is still gentle. Recently, the sharp decline in tin prices has led downstream enterprises to actively replenish inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in inventories. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,656 tons, a decrease of 1,379 tons from last Friday [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tin spot prices fluctuate with futures, and the premium and discount are stable [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuates around 6,000 tons [24] - The processing fee for 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan has increased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, indicating a marginal alleviation of the tin ore shortage [27] 3.4 Supply Side - In February, the domestic refined tin output was 10,613 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the recycled tin output was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [32] - After the holiday, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered to the pre - holiday level [35] - In January 2026, the domestic refined tin export volume was 2,139 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the import volume was 1,866 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year decrease of 34%; the net export volume was 273 tons [41] 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [46] - In the consumer electronics sector, from January to February 2026, the PC production was 41.95 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; the smartphone production was 187.08 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [49] - In the tin consumption of the tinplate field, there is a slight year - on - year decline. Aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. In 2025, the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year [58] - The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable [61] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,656 tons, a decrease of 1,379 tons from last Friday [66]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $66,000 and a decline of over 3.6% as of March 28 [1][2]. - Other cryptocurrencies also faced declines, including Ethereum down over 3% to $1,987 and SOL down over 4% [1][2]. Market Impact - Approximately 120,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount reaching $446 million [3]. - In contrast, gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold breaking $4,555 per ounce and closing at $4,493.36, marking a 2.5% increase [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions in the Middle East escalated, particularly with Iran's nuclear facilities being attacked, leading to threats of severe retaliation [5][8]. - The geopolitical situation has implications for market stability and investor sentiment, particularly in commodities like gold [6]. Gold Market Analysis - UBS CIO noted that gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven during geopolitical tensions, but current market conditions present multiple challenges, including inflation driven by energy prices, interest rate hikes, and a strengthening dollar [6]. - Despite potential short-term declines, UBS anticipates a long-term recovery in gold prices, projecting a target price of $5,900 per ounce by early 2027 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term supply of the oilseed industry is in excess. Although the short - term import rhythm has slowed down, it is difficult to change the long - term surplus pattern. For example, the long - term supply of soybean meal is relatively excessive, and the supply of rapeseed meal is also under pressure [2]. - Different oils have different supply - demand situations. For instance, soybean oil has a double - weak supply - demand pattern, palm oil has a high - inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a tight supply pattern but is also affected by policy uncertainties [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Likely Factors**: Short - term supply tightening, with relatively insufficient arrivals of South American soybeans in March compared to last year. Some oil mills shut down for maintenance due to lack of soybeans, and the开机率 is not high. The demand side shows that the hog inventory has recovered, and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening has increased the rigid demand for feed, with the提货 volume of feed enterprises in March increasing year - on - year [2]. - **Negative Factors**: The high - yield pressure in South America continues to materialize. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the output is expected to reach a historical high. The global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio has rebounded. From April, the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to increase to over 8 million tons, and the probability of soybean meal inventory accumulation in the later period is high, with significant long - term supply pressure [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Likely Factors**: Strong policy support. Since March 20, China has imposed a 100% tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal, and the import volume is expected to drop sharply from April. The arrival of rapeseed at coastal oil mills in China has slowed down, the crushing volume has gradually decreased, and the rapeseed inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand for aquaculture has weakened in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed meal are slightly weak, and there is still supply pressure. The short - term increase in rapeseed meal from countries such as India and Russia is limited, and the sustainability of Australian rapeseed imports is worthy of attention. In the later period, the import changes of Canadian rapeseed need to be continuously monitored, as Canadian rapeseed is entering the supply peak, and domestic rapeseed will also gradually come on the market in April and May [3]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Likely Factors**: The US biodiesel policy continues to be effective. The USDA expects the US soybean oil biodiesel consumption to reach 14.8 billion pounds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of 25.87%, and to increase to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 fiscal year. The arrival of soybeans in China decreased in March, the operation of oil mills was unstable, and the tight提货 in some storage areas supported the spot price. The international crude oil price remained high due to geopolitical factors, indirectly boosting industrial consumption demand [39]. - **Negative Factors**: The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans has led to a loose global supply, with a relative surplus at the raw material end. The domestic soybean oil inventory is still at a historical high, and the downstream demand is weak during the off - season, presenting a double - weak supply - demand pattern. After April, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans will put greater pressure on inventory recovery [39]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Likely Factors**: Overseas biodiesel still boosts oils, and the overseas palm oil has driven up the domestic import cost. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils, and it is recommended to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Negative Factors**: The seasonal production recovery pressure is emerging, and both the main producing countries and China are under high - inventory pressure. The internal and external supply - demand is relatively weak, and the seasonal increase in production may exacerbate the supply surplus [40]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Likely Factors**: The tight supply pattern continues. China has not yet resumed the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have caused a short - term increase in the international rapeseed futures price, providing support at the cost end. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils [41]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced rapeseed oil, restricting the price increase space. After the post - holiday replenishment, the demand has declined periodically. Statistics Canada expects the rapeseed planting area in 2026 to increase to 22.3 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. If the final result of the Sino - Canadian anti - dumping investigation opens the import window for Canadian rapeseed, the tight domestic supply pattern will be quickly alleviated, and policy uncertainties pose the main risk [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment shows a pattern of "stable manufacturing and weak services" in the US, with overall expansion momentum slowing, high inflation restricting interest - rate cut space, and the eurozone's service sector decline dragging down overall recovery. The macro - environment suppresses industrial metals in the short term, but the resilience of the manufacturing industry provides bottom support [5][16]. - The current situation between the US and Iran is in a delicate stage where the "negotiation window period" and the "military preparation period" coexist. In the short term, oil prices and bulk commodities will still be dominated by geopolitical sentiment. Aluminum prices may fluctuate and adjust mainly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East [5][13]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has a change in production capacity, and downstream demand continues to pick up. However, the overall level of consumption recovery is still not as good as the same period last year, and the recovery intensity is intertwined with macro - environmental disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US March S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. Manufacturing and services showed a differentiated trend, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 and the services PMI dropping to 51.1 [5]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6th. The US and Iran are in a situation where negotiation and military preparation coexist, and the situation is highly uncertain [5]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has changed, downstream demand continues to pick up, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. However, the overall consumption level is still lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased again, but the increase is smaller than before [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has increased, and downstream demand continues to pick up [8]. - Bearish factors: There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran conflict, and the inventory of social electrolytic aluminum continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 US - Iran Conflict - The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict, covering nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues. In exchange, Iran may get sanctions lifted and support for civilian nuclear projects. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [10]. - Military options are still on the table. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities, and the US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [11]. - Iran responded, clearly putting forward four requirements, including stopping aggression, ensuring no recurrence of war, compensating for war losses, and ending the actions of resistance organizations [12]. 3.3.2 Manufacturing and Services in the US and Europe - In the US, the March S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 51.4. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, and the services PMI dropped to 51.1. The US economic data shows a "stable manufacturing, weak services" differentiation, with overall expansion momentum slowing, and high inflation restricting interest - rate cut space [14][16]. - In the eurozone, the March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped from 51.9 to 50.5. The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, and the services PMI dropped from 51.9 to 50.1. The service sector decline drags down the overall recovery [16]. 3.3.3 Bauxite Supply - In February, China's bauxite production was 4.7567 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.92% and a year - on - year increase of 6.13%. In December, China's imported bauxite was 14.67 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.88% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02%. The global bauxite supply in 2026 is expected to be loose, with an estimated increase of 40 - 50 million tons mainly in Guinea [19]. - Guinea is discussing controlling the amount of ore put on the market. China's imports of bauxite and its concentrates in February increased by 18.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to February increased by 18.7% year - on - year [20]. 3.3.4 Alumina Market - Some domestic alumina enterprises have carried out maintenance and production cuts, which has supported the alumina price in the short term. However, the suppression of new domestic and foreign production capacity is obvious, and more overseas alumina may flow into China. The alumina price still faces upward pressure [22]. 3.3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.91%. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.37 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In March, the operating capacity of new overseas electrolytic aluminum projects is expected to continue to rise, but there is a risk of production cuts in Mozambique [27]. 3.3.6 Aluminum Processing - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.1 percentage points to 64%, and the operating rates of various sectors showed a differentiated recovery, but the overall level is still lower than the same period last year [29]. 3.3.7 Real Estate Market - In early 2026, the real estate market showed signs of adjustment slowdown. Investment, construction, new construction, and sales data all showed different degrees of decline, but the decline in housing prices narrowed, and the number of rising cities increased. The government is expected to introduce more policies to support the demand side of the real estate market [34]. 3.3.8 New Energy Vehicles and Photovoltaic - In February, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China decreased by 32% year - on - year and 22.1% month - on - month. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 19.1% year - on - year [36]. - From January to February 2026, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 32.48 GW, a 17.71% decrease compared with the same period in 2025. The cumulative installed capacity reached 123 GW, a 33.2% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will remain at a high level, which will provide important support for the demand for non - ferrous metals [36]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, reaching 423,075 tons. SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 8.56% to 452,044 tons in the week of March 20th [39]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. As of March 26th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 1.371 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with Monday of this week [43]. 3.3.10 Recycled Aluminum - In February, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry dropped significantly, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, environmental protection control, and weak demand. In March, the operating rate is expected to recover, but the recovery rhythm depends on the actual fulfillment of terminal orders [47]. - This week, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise, but the overall level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The release of production capacity is restricted by factors such as insufficient terminal orders and high raw material prices [51]. 3.3.11 Aluminum Import and Export - In 2026, from January to February, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 12.8% year - on - year, and the import decreased slightly. The export - strong and import - stable pattern provides an important outlet for the digestion of domestic aluminum industry production capacity [57]. 3.3.12 Recycled Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of March 27th, the social inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.89 million tons month - on - month to 4.49 million tons, and the in - factory inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons month - on - month to 8.04 million tons [60]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of aluminum alloy will follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and continue to adjust [64]. - In the case of the unclear situation in the Middle East, aluminum prices in the Shanghai Futures Exchange will mainly fluctuate and adjust [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitics and tight raw materials, the asphalt market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. The interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to support oil prices, while the US's cease - fire proposal cools the situation in the short term, causing the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices to decline. With the increasing risk of continuous interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, refineries face the risk of expanding production cuts, and the tightening of the supply side strengthens the upward momentum of the market. In the future, cost support and tight raw materials are expected to continue to support the market, but the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation may limit the upward space. It is expected that the market will show a wide - range volatile trend [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan, Iran denied having direct or indirect negotiations with the US, and the US military continued to deploy troops to the Middle East [7]. - **Key Data**: As of March 25, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 19.3%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 27, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 341,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 27, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 757,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 27, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 1.214 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the supply is decreasing [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US released signals of negotiation [11]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US - Iran Relations**: Trump announced a 5 - day delay in attacking Iranian power plants. The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan, but Iran denied having negotiations with the US. There are huge differences in the cease - fire conditions between the two sides, and the geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain [13][14]. - **Strait of Hormuz**: Since the outbreak of the US - Israel - Iran conflict, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted. The number of merchant ships passing through the strait has decreased by 95% compared with before the conflict. Iran refused the US cease - fire plan and put forward its own cease - fire conditions. Some friendly countries' ships can pass through the strait, but there is no public information indicating that the navigation of oil tankers has been effectively restored, and the supply interruption will continue to support oil prices [16][18][21]. - **Saudi Aramco**: Saudi Aramco plans to reduce crude oil exports to Asian buyers next month, which intensifies the tightness of crude oil supply in East Asian countries and puts pressure on the refinery operating rate [21]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: Russia launched a large - scale attack, and the EU cancelled the proposal of a Russian oil ban. As the weather conditions improve, the Russia - Ukraine conflict may escalate, but its impact on the market is relatively limited [23][24]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of March 27, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 341,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 19.3% as of March 25, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous statistical period, and it is at a low level in the past 5 years. The tight raw materials due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz lead to a decline in the refinery operating rate and output [25][32]. - **Demand**: As of March 27, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous statistical period and a year - on - year decrease of 149,000 tons. High prices suppress downstream demand, and the market is still in the off - season. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased slightly by 1.97 percentage points to 3.1% as of March 27 [35][38]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 757,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 156,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.214 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 69,000 tons. The market is still in the off - season, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [45][52]. - **Spread**: As of March 27, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing diluted asphalt was - 586 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 26, the basis of domestic asphalt was - 3 yuan/ton. As of March 25, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 48.31. This week, oil prices showed a volatile and weak trend, while asphalt was stronger than oil prices. The cracking spread rebounded, the processing profit of diluted asphalt weakened, and the basis strengthened [61]. 3.5 Future Outlook - Cost support and tight raw materials are expected to continue to support the market, but the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation may limit the upward space. It is expected that the asphalt market will show a wide - range volatile trend. The Strait of Hormuz has not achieved effective navigation of oil tankers, and the supply interruption will continue to support oil prices. The tight raw materials suppress the refinery operating rate, and the supply contraction will strengthen the upward momentum of the market. However, the US is sending mixed signals, and the geopolitical situation is still highly uncertain, and oil prices are waiting for new drivers [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile and weak trend. The evolution path of the geopolitical situation remains the core influencing factor for oil prices. The remarks of the US President and the news of the US - Iran negotiations have suppressed the market. However, the official denial from Iran has provided support for oil prices. In the future, the continuous interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to continue to support oil prices, but the marginal changes in geopolitics may weaken the upward momentum of oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will show a volatile and strong trend overall. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still the core influencing factor for oil prices, and the continuous interruption of navigation will continue to provide solid support, but geopolitical changes will cause periodic disturbances, and oil prices are expected to maintain a high - volatility pattern. [8][58] - It is recommended to participate cautiously due to the increased volatility. [8] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan, Iran denied having calls or indirect negotiations with the US, and the US military continued to deploy troops to the Middle East. [7] - Key data: From March 12th to 20th, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6926000 barrels, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 3421000 barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory remained at 0 barrels. [7] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of geopolitical conflicts. [11] - Bearish factors: The US introduced measures to suppress oil prices and expressed the willingness to negotiate a cease - fire. [11] Macro Analysis - The US proposed a cease - fire plan, but Iran denied having indirect negotiations with the US. Trump announced a 5 - day delay in attacking Iranian power plants. The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan with 15 conditions, but Iran denied having any direct or indirect negotiations with the US. There are significant differences in the cease - fire conditions between the two sides, and the geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain. [13][14] - The continuous interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz provides support for oil prices. Since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely blocked, with the number of merchant ships passing through it decreasing by 95% compared to before the conflict. Iran refused the US cease - fire plan and put forward its own 5 conditions for a cease - fire. Iran stated the navigation principles of the Strait of Hormuz, and some friendly countries' ships can pass through. [16][18] - Iran's Foreign Minister said that some countries' ships can pass through the strait, and Saudi Aramco cut crude oil supplies to Asia. Saudi Aramco plans to reduce crude oil exports to Asian buyers next month, leading to a shortage of supply for Asian refineries. [20][21] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues and there is a risk of escalation. Russia launched a large - scale attack, and the EU cancelled the proposal to ban Russian oil imports. As the weather improves, the conflict may escalate, but its impact on the market is relatively limited. [23][24] Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of the week ending March 20th, the US domestic crude oil production decreased by 11000 barrels per day to 1365700 barrels per day, and the number of oil drilling rigs increased from 412 to 414. Rising oil prices may stimulate production, but the impact needs further tracking. [25][28] - Demand: The operating rate of US refineries entered a seasonal recovery cycle, with the operating rate reaching 92.9% in the week ending March 20th, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of 16 European refineries is expected to recover in the second quarter, while the operating rate of Chinese refineries has declined rapidly, and there is a risk of further reduction. [30][34][39] - Profit: As of March 27th, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries increased by 526.69 yuan/ton to 2353.1 yuan/ton, and that of local independent refineries increased by 323.78 yuan/ton to 244.51 yuan/ton. [43] - Inventory: As of the week ending March 20th, the EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6926000 barrels, the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory remained at 0 barrels, the inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 3421000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 259300000 barrels. [48][53] - Crack spread: As of March 24th, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, Gulf of the US continued to rise to 44.81 dollars/barrel. Geopolitical factors and refinery operating rates supported the crack spread. [54] Market Outlook - The continuous interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to continue to support oil prices, but geopolitical changes may weaken the upward momentum. Oil prices are expected to show a volatile and strong trend. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the core factor, and geopolitical changes will cause periodic disturbances. There is a risk of further escalation of the geopolitical situation, which may lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 8.7%, and the far - month contracts had a decline ranging from 7% to 4%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [6][36]. - Geopolitical expectations have improved, causing the prices of near - month container shipping index (European Line) futures to decline. The spot price is affected by the high oil price. The opening price of Maersk's large container in week w14 at the beginning of the month was $2600, and the high - cube container was $2700, a $400 increase compared to the end of March. CMA issued a written price increase notice, with the large container price about $3500, slightly higher than the previously announced price of $3100 in late March [6][36]. - The eurozone's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.1% in January, reaching a record low. Inflation accelerated unexpectedly, with the CPI in February rising 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation led to an increase in the expectation of a tightening ECB policy. The market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [6][36]. - The geopolitical situation is uncertain, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry has not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. The adjustment of freight rates by shipping companies has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent transfer of power in Iran [7][37]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 8.7%, and the far - month contracts had different changes. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [6][10][36]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures retreated after a small improvement in the geopolitical situation. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract declined this week [12][14]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days until 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing. Iran responded to the US 15 - point cease - fire proposal, putting forward several conditions | Bearish | | The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate would be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate would slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year would reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation | Neutral | | Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. Both sides hoped to promote the cooling of the situation and start the peace - negotiation process | Neutral | | Goldman Sachs said that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months had risen to 30% due to the soaring oil and gas prices. Fed Governor Milan thought it was too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy and advocated further interest rate cuts | Slightly Bullish | 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [23]. - The global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity fluctuated and rebounded. The BDI and BPI dropped rapidly this week, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [28]. - The charter price of Capesize ships dropped significantly this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened rapidly [31]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. Geopolitical expectations have improved, causing the prices of near - month futures to decline, and the spot price is affected by the high oil price. The eurozone's inflation accelerated unexpectedly, and the market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [36]. - The geopolitical situation is uncertain, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry has not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. The adjustment of freight rates by shipping companies has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent transfer of power in Iran [7][37].

Core Viewpoint - Iran may open a new front in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait under the control of the Houthi forces in Yemen if there are ground or naval actions against Iran's territories [1][5]. Group 1: Military Preparedness - A military official from the Houthi forces stated that they are fully prepared for "all options" and will take action at the appropriate time [1]. - Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi expressed support for Iran against Israel and the U.S., indicating readiness to take military action if necessary [3]. - Houthi political bureau member Mohammed Bukhaiti mentioned that they are considering all possible options, including the blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait [7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Bab-el-Mandeb Strait - The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial maritime corridor connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, serving as a vital link between the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans [5]. - The strategic significance of the Strait is underscored by its role as a "water corridor" connecting three continents: Europe, Asia, and Africa [5].