AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 伦敦金融城有句关于黄金的说法，大意是"投资组合中配置5%（或当时流行的比例）的黄金，同时祈祷 它别涨"。 可如今，黄金偏在一路上涨。目前金价已逼近每盎司3800美元，且这并非仅以美元计价时的特例，以英 镑计价的黄金也创下新高，接近每盎司2800英镑。 此外，即便以全球公认的"硬通货"之一——瑞郎计价，黄金表现也十分强劲。瑞郎通常被视为避险货 币，相比普通法定货币，其贬值风险更低。然而，今年以来，以瑞郎计价的黄金涨幅已超25%（以英镑 计价涨33%，以美元计价涨44%）。 这种涨势会持续吗？正如那句老话暗示的，这是否值得担忧？让我们回顾历史，看看过去的周期能否带 来启示。 黄金历史牛熊周期复盘 在现代人的记忆中，黄金最惨淡的时期是2000年科技泡沫破裂之前。1980年（一轮高通胀周期尾声）黄 金触及峰值，到1999年跌至谷底，这19年间，全球（大体而言）处于"无通胀增长"阶段——即便经济增 长强劲，利率仍在下行。 随后，中国崛起与西方过度杠杆化推动市场走向2008年金融危机。黄金涨势一直持续到2011年，部分原 因是其避险属性，另一部分则得益于中国急速发 ...

Group 1 - The 16th Future China Global Forum (FCGF) was held in Singapore, focusing on global changes and opportunities, attracting over 600 business leaders, diplomats, scholars, and industry experts [2][3] - The forum's theme was "Geopolitical Games and Opportunities," discussing how geopolitical tensions reshape global order and the economic relationship between ASEAN and China [2][7] - Key discussions included the need for pragmatic reforms in the global economic system to address rising protectionism and digital trends, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation [5][7] Group 2 - The forum featured prominent speakers, including Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and experts from various fields discussing the implications of geopolitical changes on global markets [5][7] - Discussions highlighted the importance of understanding the evolving dynamics of supply chains and the strategic flexibility required for businesses in the ASEAN region [7][8] - Experts expressed cautious optimism regarding China's economic transition from stimulus-driven recovery to sustainable, innovation-driven growth, emphasizing the need for high-value innovation [8] Group 3 - The forum also included a special dialogue commemorating the 35th anniversary of Singapore-China diplomatic relations, focusing on past achievements and future cooperation [3][5] - The Business China Awards were presented, recognizing individuals and projects that have significantly contributed to the development of Singapore-China relations [10][11]

日前，英特尔公司宣布，中国区董事长王锐将于本月正式退休。这位在英特尔深耕30年的"铁娘子"自2021年出任中国区董事长以来，主导了英特尔中国2.0 战略升级，推动中国区营收占比连续四年稳定在26%—30%。 据悉，此次交接为"计划内更替"。此前，在今年2月，英特尔已任命王稚聪为中国区副董事长，与王锐并行工作半年，以确保平稳过渡。 值得注意的是，英特尔全球管理层过去半年已调整半数高管，叠加美国政府通过《芯片法案》转换89亿美元补贴为股权、成为约10%股东，英特尔正处于战 略收缩与地缘政治夹缝中的关键节点。 ...

让我们聚焦这份引发连锁反应的合作协议。表面看是巴沙两国安全互助，实则暗藏深意。协议本质是构建命运共同体，通过军事强国与经济强国的优势互补 形成战略对冲。尤为关键的是，巴基斯坦已着手向沙特派驻作战部队，首批精锐整装待发——这不是军事演习，而是实打实的战略部署。 沙特选择巴基斯 坦绝非偶然。两国拥有数十年深厚合作基础，巴方长期为中东地区提供安全支持。从守护伊斯兰圣地到如今全面承接沙特防务，这次合作堪称将国家安全钥 匙交予最信任的伙伴。 中东战火纷飞之际，一个出人意料的转折正在上演：这片饱经战乱的地区竟与南亚产生了战略联动。以色列破天荒地与昔日对手携手，引发阿拉伯世界震 动，周边多国纷纷表态考虑加入这场地缘政治重组。 耐人寻味的是，此次站上外交舞台中央的既非美国也非俄罗斯，而是巴基斯坦。更微妙的是，虽然中国始终未直接亮相，但明眼人都能看出这场博弈中的中 国印记。中东的权力格局正在经历静默更迭，巴基斯坦意外成为这场变革的先锋旗手——这个南亚国家究竟凭什么担此重任？ 与美国的强权政治形成鲜明对比：中国不设军事基地、不干涉内政，却通过互利合作赢得信任。这种选择反映了中东国家的集体心态转变——从依赖超级大 国保护转向寻求平 ...

俄罗斯政坛近日掀起波澜：普京的老战友德米特里·科扎克突然请辞。这位与普京共事26年的政治元老，从圣彼得堡时期就追随左右，却在9月18日意外提交 辞呈，次日便正式卸任总统办公厅副主任一职。与以往低调的人事调整不同，这次离职在克里姆林宫掀起轩然大波，引发国际社会广泛关注。 科扎克的政 治生涯堪称俄罗斯政坛的活化石。1999年普京出任总理时，他就进入政府核心圈，先后执掌行政事务、地区发展等重要部门。在2008-2020年担任副总理期 间，他主持了索契冬奥会筹备、远东开发等国家级项目，更深度参与乌克兰事务，包括2015年明斯克协议的落实工作。这位低调务实的技术型官员，一直是 普京最信赖的左膀右臂。 离职消息公布后，俄罗斯官方坚称是个人决定，但西方媒体挖出更多内情。《纽约时报》披露，科扎克曾劝阻普京不要发动特别军事行动；《华盛顿邮报》 则指出，他是普京核心圈中少有的温和派。更耐人寻味的是，其职权已由强硬派代表基里延科接手，这被观察家视为俄罗斯对乌政策可能转向更强硬的信 号。 这场人事地震在国际舞台引发连锁反应。正推动俄乌调停的特朗普政府明显受挫，白宫内部评估认为，科扎克的离职使谈判进程雪上加霜。基辅方面 则担忧，莫斯科 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the precious metals and base metals industries, focusing on gold, aluminum, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements [1][2][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals (Gold) - Central bank gold purchases have become a major factor influencing gold prices, offsetting the net outflow from institutional investors during the interest rate hike cycle, leading to an increase in gold prices [1][2]. - Gold prices typically reach a peak around the second interest rate cut, with a sustained upward trend from the market's expectation of rate cuts to the confirmation of their frequency and magnitude [2][3]. - After the first rate cut, there may be a price adjustment, but there is potential for another price surge [2][3]. - In a soft landing scenario, gold prices are expected to fluctuate after peaking around the second rate cut, while in the event of systemic economic risks, gold may experience a significant pullback but will recover the fastest [3]. Base Metals (Aluminum and Copper) - China's aluminum production capacity is nearing its peak, leading to strong supply constraints, with limited supply growth expected [1][8]. - Recent disturbances in major copper mines have altered the supply landscape, resulting in limited price adjustments despite declining demand, reminiscent of the situation in 1984 [8][9]. - The anticipated price peaks for copper and aluminum are around $10,000/ton and $21,000/ton, respectively, with expected pullbacks being limited to within 5% due to supply constraints [9][10]. Cobalt and Rare Earth Elements - The potential extension of the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban could lead to a tightening of global cobalt inventories, significantly increasing cobalt prices [4][11]. - The rare earth market remains stable, with increasing demand driven by high-tech industries and green energy transitions, suggesting a positive investment outlook for companies in this sector [4][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic environment is expected to influence metal prices, with a focus on liquidity and inflation trends. If no technological revolution occurs, gold prices may fluctuate upwards due to increased liquidity and inflation [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek individual stocks with strong growth potential, particularly those with clear mineral increment plans leading up to 2030 [5]. - The steel industry faces challenges due to declining domestic demand and increased export pressures, but there are opportunities for top companies to improve pricing and profit margins through supply-side optimization [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals industry.

即使在利雅得平衡与美国和巴基斯坦的安全关系，同时也扩大与同为金砖国家联盟成员的印度的能源贸 易之际，美元计价仍然是沙特原油出口的基础。 "沙特一直是我们非常坚实的合作伙伴，"印度经济贸易协会主席阿西夫·伊克巴尔（Asif Iqbal）上周五 在被问及沙特-巴基斯坦防御协定时指出。 一名消息人士指出，沙特与巴基斯坦新签订的共同防御协定，不太可能改变利雅得与其主要消费国印度 之间的能源关系。 当被问及印度是否会继续购买沙特的原油时，一位熟悉此事的高级消息人士表示："当然会。" 这位因事涉敏感而只能匿名发言的消息人士补充说，沙特正寻求通过扩大联盟来巩固其安全，但不会以 牺牲其商业关系为代价。 与邻国巴基斯坦冲突数十年的印度是世界上最大的原油消费国之一，也是沙特的关键客户。根据Kpler 的数据，利雅得在7月份每日售出略高于60万桶原油，使其与俄罗斯和伊拉克并列为印度的三大供应国 之一。 这位消息人士也驳斥了长期以来关于沙特石油贸易将转向非美元计价的猜测，称关于非美元计价协议的 说法是一个"虚幻的协议"。 该协定由沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼和巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫（Shehbaz Sharif）在利雅得签署， ...

Economic Pressure - The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Indian goods exported to the U.S. to 50%, significantly impacting key industries such as textiles, chemicals, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals [3] - India's annual exports to the U.S. amount to $87 billion, with over 60% of these goods now facing high tariffs, potentially leading to a near 50% reduction in overall export value [3] - The Indian rupee has fallen to a historic low, and economists predict that the tariff impact could reduce India's GDP growth rate by 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points [3] Energy and Geopolitical Challenges - The U.S. has revoked sanctions waivers for India's development of the Chabahar port in Iran, a strategic project aimed at connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia, which is now under threat of U.S. sanctions [5] - The U.S. is strengthening its geopolitical alliance with Pakistan, signing oil development agreements and enhancing military cooperation, which could increase pressure on India in the event of conflict [5] - India is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with 73% of its energy needs met from this region, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [5] Strategic Responses - In response to U.S. pressures, the Indian government is seeking to diversify its partnerships, including reducing import taxes on edible oils and enhancing trade relations with Germany and Singapore [8] - India is also attempting to improve relations with China and Russia, with Prime Minister Modi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and promoting direct currency transactions to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [10] Domestic Sentiment and Political Impact - The U.S. actions have sparked significant public discontent in India, with protests against the U.S. and a decline in support for Modi's government [11] - Balancing national interests with domestic pressures presents a significant challenge for the Modi administration, as the interconnected nature of U.S. tariffs, energy sanctions, and geopolitical strategies aims to compel India to align with U.S. interests [11]

报道称，特朗普曾多次指责欧洲国家购买俄能源。他18日在同英国首相斯塔默会晤后表示，愿意加大对俄经济压力。尽管多数欧洲国家自俄乌冲 突后停止了直接购买俄石油，但匈牙利、斯洛伐克等国仍在进口俄石油。欧洲国家还从印度和土耳其等国进口柴油，后者将俄石油加工成燃料。 报道还提到，欧盟已宣布将从明年起禁止进口由俄石油提炼的石油产品，欧盟委员会还提议在2027年1月1日前禁止进口俄液化天然气，比原计划 提前一年。 RT称，欧盟若对印度等征收关税将导致欧洲经济形势进一步恶化并损失惨重，因此欧盟并不急于在该问题上听从美国。此外，欧盟也不想就此疏 远印度，而美国当前对印度的相关举动甚至推翻了过去20年来其对印度奉行的整体政策。美国"政治新闻网"此前称，尽管美国施压欧盟加快摆脱 俄能源，但欧盟不太可能在2027年前完全实现目标。主要原因在于匈牙利、斯洛伐克不支持对俄制裁并继续从俄进口能源。 【环球时报驻俄罗斯特派记者 肖新新 环球时报驻美国特约记者 李致】今日俄罗斯电视台（RT）网站22日称，欧盟和美国未能就对中印购买俄罗 斯石油实施二级制裁达成一致。 针对美国要求欧盟对印度、中国征收100%关税一事，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩21日 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Champion Technology Group (00092.HK) anticipates a consolidated net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 42 million to HKD 46 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of about HKD 12 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 [1] Group Analysis - The expected losses are primarily due to several factors: - Geopolitical issues have led to a shortage of key components for data centers, significantly hindering the development of the smart city industry. This has resulted in a notable decrease in revenue and operational performance for the company's smart city solutions business, along with a significant increase in expected credit losses from accounts receivable due to delayed customer payments [1] - The Hong Kong government has indicated that the subsidy program for online electricity prices is unlikely to be extended beyond its expiration in 2033. Consequently, investors in general renewable energy projects are becoming hesitant, leading to a significant reduction in revenue and operational performance for the company's renewable energy business [1] - During the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the company recorded a one-time gain of HKD 32.1 million from the disposal of a hotel in Dongguan, which is considered non-recurring in nature [1]