Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant recovery, driven by improved market conditions and regulatory support, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3499.89 points, marking the highest closing level since January 24, 2022 [1] - The brokerage sector, characterized as a "high beta asset," is closely linked to capital market performance, with all five major business areas showing improvement since the beginning of 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Segments - **Brokerage Business**: Increased market activity due to the entry of long-term funds, with new account openings rising over 50% year-on-year [1] - **Investment Banking**: The introduction of the "1+6" policy by the CSRC on June 18 is expected to benefit brokerage investment banking and private equity direct investment businesses [2] - **Proprietary Investment**: Benefiting from the upward trend in the A-share market since 2025 [2] - **Asset Management**: Recovery in the asset management industry and positive market expectations are driving growth [3] - **Credit Business**: Continuous recovery in financing balances is supporting this segment [4] Group 3: Performance Expectations - The brokerage sector's revenue and net profit saw strong year-on-year growth in Q1, with revenues increasing by 20.93% and net profits rising by 79.56%. Key drivers include proprietary investment (up 45% YoY) and brokerage business (up 49% YoY) [5] Group 4: Industry Forecast - The 2025 earnings forecast for the securities industry indicates a conservative estimate of daily average trading volume reaching 1.1 trillion yuan and net profit of approximately 1685.69 million yuan [6] - The forecast also includes optimistic scenarios with net profits potentially reaching 2262.10 million yuan [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The current market environment emphasizes both stabilizing the market and encouraging new investments, with ongoing measures expected to attract long-term capital and enhance returns on equity assets [7] - There is potential for excess savings to shift towards investments and consumption, further supporting market growth [8] Group 6: Investment Tools - The brokerage ETF (159842) is highlighted as a simple and efficient investment tool, tracking the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index and featuring the lowest management and custody fees in its category [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias", for stock index options is "probability of volatility decline is relatively high", and for treasury bond futures is "maintaining oscillation" [7][8][10] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark, and there are signs of incremental funds entering the market. The stock index option market shows signs of recovery, but there may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The treasury bond futures market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the central bank's operations [7][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the equity market oscillated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark. Non-metallic materials, telecommunications, and electronics led the gains, while banks and public utilities, which were relatively strong yesterday, ranked lower. The market rotation speed remains relatively fast. The sentiment has recovered, with market trading volume enlarging to around 1.5 trillion, significant increase in futures positions and narrowing of discounts, and the number of limit-up stocks remaining at around 70. There is a risk of missing out on the market, and if the market continues, attention can be paid to the possibility of adding long positions in IM contracts on dips. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying assets rose again, with the GEM ETF leading the gains, rising 2.32%, and the SSE 50 ETF rising 0.6%. Driven by the rise in the underlying assets, the liquidity in the options market recovered rapidly, with the trading volume increasing by about 95%, and the trading volume of the GEM ETF options exceeding that of the 300 ETF options. Most contracts saw a slight increase in volatility. There may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The volatility trend strategy is to pay attention to the morning volatility and short volatility on rallies, and the main strategy is the covered call strategy [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined across the board. The strong performance of the equity market suppressed the intraday performance of the T main contract, but there was a slight rebound in the market at the end of the session, indicating that short sellers may have some profit-taking motivation. In the cash bond market, the central bank further net withdrew funds, and the funding rate may not decline further. With the tax payment at the middle of the month and the MLF withdrawal, the funding liquidity may fluctuate more. The market lacks catalytic factors in the short term, and the odds may decline after the previous decline in interest rates to a low level. The operation suggestions include maintaining an oscillating trend strategy, paying attention to short hedging at low basis levels, appropriately paying attention to basis widening, and the mid-term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [8][10] Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data release schedule for the current week, including the retail sales annual rate in the Eurozone in May, the CPI and PPI annual rates in China in June, the M2 money supply annual rate in China in June, the cumulative new RMB loans in China in June, and the cumulative social financing scale in China in June [11] Important Information and News Tracking - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's Chief Executive Officer, Leung Fung Yee, said at the Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025 that they have been actively cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The technical preparations are progressing smoothly, and they aim to announce the implementation details to the market soon. They also hope to establish an offshore treasury bond commercial repurchase market in Hong Kong. A new round of anti-"involution" competition has begun, covering both traditional industries such as steel and cement and emerging industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries. The anti-involution policy should be implemented gradually and tailored to different industries [12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [13][17][29]

Group 1: Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry underperformed the market in the first half of the year due to valuation increases and policy changes [1] - Ongoing market stabilization measures are expected to boost various business segments, including brokerage, margin financing, and equity derivatives [1] - The introduction of new public fund regulations marks a new era for high-quality development in public funds [1] - The deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms is leading to a recovery in investment banking business [1] - The reliance on investment performance, particularly in leverage and proprietary equity investments by brokerages, remains a key differentiator [1] - The "1+N" regulatory framework and mechanisms to encourage long-term capital inflow are enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent copper prices have shown an upward trend, but there is market divergence regarding future price movements [2] - The upstream refined copper production remains tight due to limited CAPEX and significant reductions in TC/RC fees [2] - Support for copper prices is provided by China's "steady growth" policies and the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with current market prices deemed reasonable [2] - Further upward movement in copper prices may require additional macroeconomic policy support domestically and stabilization in overseas economies [2] - Inflation expectations, interest rate cut anticipations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may further support the current strong oscillation in copper prices [2] - Citic Securities maintains a forecast for copper prices to rise to $10,000–$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, while cautioning against potential disruptions from July's "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Group 3: Smart Glasses Supply Chain - The release of Xiaomi's AI glasses, which serve as a portable AI interface with multiple functionalities, highlights the importance of the smart glasses supply chain [3] - The smart glasses are positioned as a significant future product in the AI sector [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The overall reference view is fluctuating strongly. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is fluctuating strongly, and the overall view reference is fluctuating strongly. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations form strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising, with a reference view of fluctuating strongly. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted out, rising slightly throughout the day. The full - market trading volume of the stock market was 1575.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 47.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The manufacturing PMI data in June showed a marginal improvement. The risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently due to policy - side support, expectations of incremental funds entering the market, and the easing of external risk factors in the short term. The large - finance and AI technology sectors have become the market's main lines, and the market sentiment is positive and optimistic [4]

Core Insights - A total of 9 stock ETFs will be launched from tomorrow until next Wednesday, including Digital Economy ETF, Aerospace ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF [1] - ETFs are required to complete their portfolio construction before listing to ensure compliance with fund contracts and related documents [1] - The batch listing of these ETFs is expected to inject significant new capital into the market [1]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 08 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 | | 昨日国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.62%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.19%， 5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.01%。中国央行开展 1955 亿 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元 7 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.5%。公开市场有 5308 亿元逆回购到期， | | | | 净回笼 3353 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 利率下行 4.82bp 至 1.6613%， | | | | DR007 4.7bp 1.6802%；交易所回购市场方面，GC001 13bp 利率下行 至 下行 | | | 国债 | 至 1.5750%，GC007 利率下行 6bp 至 1.6750%。昨日一揽子增量措施出台， | 偏空 | | | 央行发布 3 类 10 项措施，降准降息落地。当前债市抢跑定价基本面走弱和 | | | | 货币政策发力预期较为明显，在经济尚未受到明显外需的拖累，而降准降息 | | | | 已经落地的情况下，债市预计偏空运行。收益率曲 ...

中证报中证网讯(记者赵中昊)4月9日，方正证券首席经济学家燕翔在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示， 4月份以来，面对外部冲击导致的全球股市巨大波动，包括央行、汇金公司、央企、保险、社保、上市 公司等国内资本市场参与各方，通过增持回购等多种方式协力为A股市场提供源源不断的增量资金支 持，用实际行动表达了对中国资本市场的坚定看好。 首先是代表"国家队"的中央汇金公司快速出手。4月7日，中央汇金公司发布公告称坚定看好中国资本市 场发展前景，充分认可当前A股配置价值，已再次增持ETF，未来将继续增持。同日，央行表示将坚定 支持，并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。本次中央汇金 关键时点再度增持A股资产意义重大，一方面为市场带来了充实的增量资金，另一方面其类"平准基 金"作用更突显了政策决心。 燕翔认为，从基本面角度看，中国是一个以内需为主导的大国经济体，中国拥有14亿人口，2024年人均 GDP达到了95749元、居民人均可支配收入41314元，是全球最大和最有潜力的消费市场，具有巨大增长 空间。在新发展格局下，中国的内需潜力将进一步释放，2025年春节档电影票房创历史新高即已反映了 ...

Core Viewpoint - A total of 132.42 billion yuan in incremental funds is set to enter the market with the establishment of six new Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds [1] Group 1: Fundraising Details - Six companies, including Huaxia, E Fund, China Merchants, Penghua, Bosera, and Southern, have collectively raised 132.42 billion yuan through the establishment of Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds [1] - Huaxia's linked fund raised 48.92 billion yuan, while E Fund raised 43.62 billion yuan [1] - Two additional Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds were established earlier, and four more are currently in the issuance process [1] Group 2: Total Fundraising Overview - The total fundraising amount for 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds has exceeded 170 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - Six fund companies, including Huaxia, E Fund, China Merchants, Penghua, Bosera, and Southern, launched a total of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds with a combined fundraising scale exceeding 17 billion yuan [1][1][1] - The newly established funds raised a total of 13.242 billion yuan, indicating a significant influx of capital into the market [1][1][1] - Two additional Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF linked funds completed fundraising on April 7, with four more currently in the issuance process [1][1][1]