格隆汇11月11日｜上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授朱宁表示，房地产正如他在2024年初预测 的那样，"仍需要3-5年再调整20-30%才能最后触底"。他认为当前房价还有进一步调整的空间和时 间。"偏乐观的说法是我们在逐渐进入整个市场底部的区域，但是还没有达到真正的底部。"他进一步分 析指出，一些三四线城市的房价下降幅度在收窄，但成交量和流动性在快速枯竭；而一线城市的二手房 市场调整幅度在加大。 "国内房地产不是一个简单的消费品，也不是一个简单的投资品，它和很多社会 公共福利和保障的体系联系在一起。"谈及城市差异，他认为一线城市由于具有更宝贵的公共资源，房 地产从估值和投资的角度而言仍具有吸引力。对于社会持续关注的"老破小"房产问题，他指出"房地产 是流动性比较差的资产"，在市场调整期应"现金为王"，他表示："如果在短期没有明显看到需求改善的 话，我建议大家还是考虑尽早地出手流入市场，能够持币观望，有更多其他选择的机会。"对于未来五 年房地产行业的期许，他指出两个方向，一个方向是房地产开发更多回归到原来建筑相关的职能；另一 个方向是新型城镇改造或旧城的功能性提升将会带来新的增长点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, reduced export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - PVC开工率环比增加2.49个百分点至80.75%，处于近年同期偏高水平，宁波镇洋、内蒙亿利等装置产量提升 [17] - 新增产能方面，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行 [4] - 内蒙三联等生产企业检修即将结束，成本支撑减弱 [4] Demand Side - PVC下游开工率小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，但仍是偏低水平 [4] - 2025年1 - 9月房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。全国房地产开发投资67706亿元，同比下降13.9%；商品房销售面积65835万平方米，同比下降5.5%；商品房销售额63040亿元，下降7.9%等 [23] - 截至11月9日当周，30大中城市商品房成交面积环比继续回落32.15%，处于近年同期最低水平 [23] Export - 印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30 - 40美元/吨，8月14日印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱，上周出口签单环比回落 [4] Inventory - 截至11月6日当周，PVC社会库存环比增加1.13%至104.16万吨，比去年同期增加26.42%，社会库存小幅增加，目前仍偏高 [24] Market - 目前01基差在 - 51元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平 [12] - PVC期价跌破前低，市场低迷 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 449.91 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.778 billion yuan, down 24.14% year-on-year [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,558.22 billion yuan, a decline of 4.20% year-on-year, with a net profit of 38.182 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year [4]. - The decline in performance is attributed to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth [4]. - The company signed new contracts worth 3,293.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 48.452 billion, 50.110 billion, and 52.347 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.62, 4.47, and 4.28 [4]. Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 2,187.148 million yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -3.5% [5]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 46.187 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of -14.9% [5]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 9.9% in 2025, slightly decreasing over the forecast period [5]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a profound transformation, with significant declines in both sales and prices observed in 2022, indicating a shift from a wealth-generating engine to a struggling sector [1][3][4]. Market Trends - In November 2022, 51 out of 70 major cities in China saw a month-on-month decline in new residential property prices, while 62 cities experienced a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating that over 70% of the new housing market and nearly 90% of the second-hand market are under price pressure [4]. - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November 2022 amounted to 67,268.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.1%, highlighting the market's downturn [4]. Economic Impact - The decline in the real estate market is attributed to a retreat in speculative investment demand and adverse macroeconomic conditions, including repeated pandemic impacts that have strained the real economy, leading to layoffs and reduced income expectations for residents [4]. - Many families have postponed their home-buying plans due to these economic challenges, severely suppressing market demand [4]. Price Predictions - There are aggressive predictions circulating that suggest future price drops could see first-tier city prices fall to 20,000 yuan per square meter, second-tier cities to 8,000 yuan, and third/fourth-tier cities to 4,000 yuan, representing potential declines of over 60% to 70% from current levels [6]. - Current prices in first-tier cities range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per square meter, indicating that such drastic reductions would require unprecedented declines [6]. Stability Concerns - The likelihood of a "cliff-like" price drop in the short term is considered extremely low due to several factors, including the real estate sector's critical role in the national economy and the potential for government intervention to stabilize the market [7]. - A significant drop in housing prices could lead to severe financial risks, including increased defaults on mortgages, which would burden banks with unsold properties and could trigger systemic financial risks [7]. - The real estate industry is interconnected with numerous sectors, providing substantial employment and contributing to local economic development; thus, a sharp decline in property prices could have widespread negative effects [7].

每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈梦妤 楼市"银十"，上海新房价格同比涨幅依然超过了10%。 不仅如此，据中指研究院《中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数报告》，十大城市中，有8个城市10月份新房价格同环比均上涨。 | 城市 | 环比涨跌 | 同比涨跌 | 样本平均价格 (元/平方米) | 样本价格中位数 (元/平方米) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 0.15% | 2.24% | 46583 的花 | 56000 | | 上海 | 0.82% | 10.70% | 61185 | 56000 | | 广州 | 0.33% | 1.75% | 25120 | 27649 | | 深圳 | -0.15% | -0.96% L | 52250 | 49000 | | 天津 | 0.12% | 2.01% | 15504 - 歌词 | 16500 | | 武汉 栏 | 0.41% | 0.50% | 13296 | 13500 | | 杭州 | +1.20% | 6.51% | 32502 | 30000 | | 南京 | 0.37% | 1.95% ~ | 2571 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but overseas business shows strong performance [4] - Revenue and profit have declined due to a slowdown in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The company maintains a leading position in the industry with significant advantages in business scale and asset quality, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,558.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.18 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year [6] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.72%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed a marginal improvement, with a net outflow of 69.48 billion yuan, which is 7.53 billion yuan less than the previous year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 47.5 billion yuan, 49.4 billion yuan, and 51.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.86%, 3.88%, and 3.73% [5][6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the current stock price is projected to be 4.72, 4.55, and 4.38 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Business Segment Performance - The company’s construction and infrastructure segments reported revenues of 988.6 billion yuan and 370.6 billion yuan respectively for the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year declines of 5.3% and 3.6% [6] - The overseas business generated revenue of 91.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [6] - The real estate development segment achieved revenue of 177.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with contract sales of 255.3 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year [6]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the real estate market in October 2025, particularly focusing on the top 100 real estate companies in China. The overall sales amount for these companies was 253 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 42% [1][2][7]. Key Points Sales Performance - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in October 2025 was significantly impacted by ongoing market pressures, with a cumulative decline of 16% over the first ten months of the year, which is an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [2][7]. - Major state-owned enterprises like China Resources and China Overseas experienced year-on-year declines exceeding 50% due to high base effects from the previous year [7]. Market Dynamics - The luxury housing market showed signs of differentiation, with high-end areas in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen maintaining some demand, but overall sales were weak, particularly in secondary locations [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market continued to see rapid price declines, with no signs of stabilization. New building regulations in Shanghai have pressured prices of older properties, leading to expectations of continued price drops in the short term [6][12]. Supply and Demand - The new supply of properties in 30 cities dropped significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 51% and a year-on-year decrease of 21%, marking the lowest monthly supply since 2020 [8][9]. - The land auction market has cooled, with a notable decline in both the area and monetary value of land sold across 300 cities, reflecting cautious behavior from developers [19]. City-Specific Insights - In first-tier cities, new home transactions have cooled, with significant month-on-month declines in cities like Shanghai (down 15%) and Shenzhen (down over 20%) [11][12]. - The performance of second and third-tier cities showed some resilience, with an average month-on-month increase of 1%, although year-on-year figures still reflected a decline of 36% [13]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased supply and promotional efforts from developers in November and December to boost sales performance, although year-on-year declines may widen to around 50% due to high base effects from the previous year [4][21]. - The anticipated market stabilization point may be pushed further into the future, with predictions suggesting a potential turning point in 2026 or 2027, indicating a longer-term adjustment cycle rather than a short-term fluctuation [20]. Additional Insights - The impact of recent policy changes, such as the lifting of certain purchase restrictions in major cities, has dissipated without leading to sustained market recovery [3][4]. - The average premium rate in land auctions has dropped below 3%, indicating a more cautious approach from developers regarding land acquisition [19][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the real estate market in China.

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, leading to confusion among potential buyers and sellers regarding whether to sell or buy properties in 2025 [1][3] - Notable entrepreneur Cao Dewang emphasizes that housing should primarily serve as a residence rather than an investment, suggesting that families with genuine needs should consider purchasing homes if financially feasible [1][3] Market Overview - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing was 1.02 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with sales amounting to 9.5 trillion yuan, down 12.3% [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, 42 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices decline, with an average drop of approximately 3.2% [3] - The market shows significant differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintaining stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities experience larger declines, some exceeding 15% [3][6] Population Dynamics - Over 25 million people moved between cities in 2024, with about 65% relocating to first-tier and strong second-tier cities, driving housing demand in these areas [3] Future Predictions - The real estate market adjustment is expected to continue, but a sharp decline is not anticipated, with average price drops projected to remain under 5% in 2025 [6] - The differentiation among cities will become more pronounced, with first-tier cities likely to maintain stability while third and fourth-tier cities face ongoing downward pressure [6] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is expected to remain relatively loose, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market rather than stimulating investment demand [6] - Approximately 70% of homebuyers view the current policy environment as favorable for genuine housing needs [6] Recommendations for Buyers - For genuine homebuyers, if financial conditions allow (with a down payment not exceeding 50% of total assets and monthly payments under 40% of monthly income), 2025 may present a good opportunity to enter the market [6][8] - For investors holding properties in third or fourth-tier cities, it may be wise to consider divesting during stable market conditions to reallocate funds to other investment channels or properties in quality cities [8][10] Investment Considerations - The average return on real estate investment in 2024 was 2.1%, lower than the average return of 3.5% from bank financial products, indicating that real estate may no longer be the optimal investment choice [8] - Diversifying asset allocation is recommended, as real estate should not dominate a household's asset portfolio, which averaged 68% in China compared to 40% in developed countries [12] Conclusion - The real estate market in 2025 is in a state of adjustment but also presents opportunities for informed decision-making based on individual needs and financial situations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, leading to uncertainty among potential investors and homeowners regarding property investments [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, China's housing prices have entered a downward adjustment cycle, affecting both second-tier cities and major first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [1][4]. - As of September 2025, national real estate development investment has decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 12.9%, indicating a deep-seated supply-demand imbalance [4][5]. - Approximately 40% of urban households are facing unprecedented housing challenges, exacerbated by high vacancy rates and declining purchasing power [1][5]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Imbalance - China has around 600 million residential units, theoretically capable of housing 3 billion people, while 96% of households own at least one property, leading to high vacancy rates [5][9]. - The proportion of families owning two or more properties is 41.5%, contributing to the oversupply of housing and increasing pressure on property values [5][9]. - A study predicts that about 40 million housing units will face inheritance issues in the next decade, further complicating the supply-demand dynamics [5]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Pressure - As of early 2025, China's total household debt has surpassed 200 trillion yuan, with an average debt of 140,000 yuan per person, indicating a high debt-to-income ratio [6][7]. - Among indebted urban households, 76.8% have housing loans, with an average loan balance of nearly 400,000 yuan, making up 75.9% of total household debt [6][7]. - The rising debt levels combined with falling property values create a "double whammy" effect, increasing the risk of mortgage defaults, especially in a challenging economic environment [6][7]. Group 4: Vacancy Rates and Resource Allocation - The average housing vacancy rate in Chinese cities is approximately 12%, with first-tier cities at 7%, second-tier cities at 12%, and third-tier cities reaching 16% [9]. - High vacancy rates lead to wasted resources and increased maintenance costs for empty properties, particularly affecting families with multiple homes [9]. - Urban areas with higher aging populations tend to have higher vacancy rates, indicating a correlation between demographic trends and housing demand [9]. Group 5: Policy Responses and Future Outlook - Various government measures are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, including promoting quality housing construction and innovative sales models [10][12]. - Experts suggest that the real estate market may stabilize by 2025, entering a new phase of development characterized by healthier market dynamics [10][12]. - Recommendations for households include managing debt levels, diversifying investments, and focusing on income growth to navigate the current economic landscape [12].

Core Insights - The performance of A-share listed real estate companies continues to be under pressure, with 41 out of 77 companies reporting net losses in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling a loss of 872.16 billion yuan [1][5][9] - The ongoing losses in the real estate sector are attributed to low-profit project settlements, impairment provisions during market adjustments, and increased interest expenses [9][10] - Despite the challenging environment, there are indications that some companies may recover if the housing market gradually improves [1][9] Financial Performance - The total operating revenue for the 77 listed real estate companies reached 973.3 billion yuan, with a significant portion of companies reporting substantial losses [1][5] - Vanke reported an operating revenue of 161.39 billion yuan with a net loss of 28.02 billion yuan, primarily due to declining settlement scales and low gross margins [2][3] - *ST Jinke experienced a 73.57% decline in total revenue to 5.699 billion yuan, resulting in a net loss of 10.778 billion yuan, exacerbated by liquidity issues [2][3] - Huaxia Happiness reported a revenue of 3.882 billion yuan, down 72.09%, with a net loss of 9.829 billion yuan [3] - Greenland Holdings and Xinda Real Estate also reported significant losses, with net losses exceeding 6.69 billion yuan and 5.31 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] Company Restructuring and Recovery - A few companies, such as *ST Zhongdi, managed to turn a profit due to significant asset restructuring, reporting a net profit of 4.827 billion yuan [6][7] - The restructuring involved transferring real estate development assets to its parent company, which resulted in a profit boost from asset disposals [7] - Companies like China Merchants Shekou, Nanjing High-Tech, and Binjiang Group reported net profits exceeding 2 billion yuan, indicating some resilience in the sector [8] Market Outlook - The real estate sector has faced continuous losses since 2022, with sales expected to decline further until 2024, impacting revenue recognition and gross margins [9] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of potential recovery in core cities, where companies are focusing on higher-margin projects to improve profitability [9][10] - The decline in land and financing costs, along with improved sales performance, may lead to a reversal in fortunes for some companies, although most will prioritize cash flow management [10]