房地产市场调整

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楼市持续深度调整 市场改善存多方面积极因素
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 14:05
Core Insights - The real estate market in China is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in investment and housing prices, necessitating continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore the market's focus on housing as a necessity and for public welfare [1][2][3] Investment Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1] - The new construction area of residential buildings fell by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Price Movements - In July, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with reductions also narrowing [3] Market Recovery Indicators - The trend of price declines in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with some cities experiencing price increases [3][4] - Financial support for real estate is improving, with bank approvals for loans significantly increasing, which may lead to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in real estate investment in the second half of the year [2] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that local governments should focus on stabilizing housing prices and adapt pricing strategies to better match market demand [5] - There is a call for continued exploration of policies to encourage housing demand and improve the overall market environment [1][5]
7月楼市数据出炉:多项指标降幅扩大,一线城市新房市场显韧性
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-08-15 10:33
各地要加大力度研究如何消化二手房房源,为新房市场提供更好的市场环境。 当前,房地产市场仍处于深度调整阶段,供需两端修复节奏放缓,止跌回稳工作仍需靶向发力、持续推 进。 8月15日,国家统计局发布最新房地产数据。数据显示,7月房地产开发投资、销售面积、销售金额等多 项指标同比降幅呈扩大态势,市场调整压力依旧存在。 从投资端来看,1-7月份,全国房地产开发投资53580亿元,同比下降12.0%,比1-6月份扩大0.8个百分 点;其中,住宅投资41208亿元,下降10.9%。 从销售端来看,1-7月份,新建商品房销售面积51560万平方米,同比下降4.0%,比1-6月份扩大0.5个百 分点;其中住宅销售面积下降4.1%。新建商品房销售额49566亿元,同比下降6.5%,比1-6月份扩大1个 百分点;其中住宅销售额下降6.2%。 对此,多位业内人士表示,最新数据反映出当前房地产市场仍面临需求释放不足、企业投资信心偏弱的 双重压力。短期来看,需进一步强化政策的精准性与协同性,推动供需两端形成良性互动。 一线城市新房市场显韧性上海领涨全国 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示,本次北京楼市新政信号意义明显,限购政策优化也 ...
一线城市新房价格同环比降幅收窄,专家认为未来楼市止跌回稳趋势不变
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-15 04:55
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with a trend towards recovery expected to continue in the future [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, new home prices in first-tier cities saw a narrowing decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a 0.2% month-on-month decrease, which is a 0.1 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2][3]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 1.1% drop in new home prices, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 6.1% [3][4]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 5 in July, with Shanghai and Urumqi both seeing a 0.3% increase, indicating a slight recovery in certain markets [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently in a seasonal adjustment phase, with July and August typically being slower months, but first-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization in the new home market [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is under pressure, with high listing volumes leading to a buyer's market, particularly in cities like Beijing where listings exceeded 160,000 [4][5]. - The demand for second-hand homes is increasing, especially among young people and new urban residents, as affordability improves due to falling prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the trend of price stabilization will continue, supported by a narrowing year-on-year price index across 70 cities and a reduction in new home sales to levels not seen since 2010 [5]. - Policy adjustments aimed at restoring the housing market's fundamentals, including support for education and employment, are expected to bolster housing consumption and mitigate panic selling in the second-hand market [5]. - The shift towards affordable and quality housing, along with urban renewal initiatives, is anticipated to drive future demand and stabilize new home prices [5][6].
房企最新“成绩单”有变化,四季度“冲刺促销”要来了?
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 05:47
中新网11月2日电(中新财经记者 左宇坤)伴随着各上市房企接连披露第三季度业绩报告,前10个月的销 售排行榜也随之出炉。备受关注的头部房企间,出现了一些排名的位移与发展的分化。 在三季度一轮轮高频次、大力度政策利好释放后,各地楼市已经历了需求逐渐入市、成交冲高回落的过 程。持续筑底中,房企该如何在四季度的"抢收战"中抢占先机? "领头羊"有变 中指研究院发布的《2023年1-10月中国房地产企业销售业绩排行榜》显示,TOP100房企前10月销售总 额为52977亿元,同比下降13.1%。 在市场处于调整期的大背景下,房企间的排名也发生了不小的变化。在去年的1-10月销售榜中,销售额 前五强分别是碧桂园、保利发展、万科、中海地产、华润置地;今年的同一个维度下,前五名变成了保 利发展、万科、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口。 经过一年市场调整,保利发展与万科依然是闪亮的"双子星"。其中,保利发展以领先第二名565.5亿元 的优势稳居行业榜首,这一差距可谓是一个中型房企的销售规模。 在2022年初的保利发展2022年度工作会议上,董事长刘平提出了"进三争一"的新目标。虽说到了今年4 月的2022年度业绩说明会上,管理层 ...
任职12年后,沙河股份董事长陈勇因“工作调动”辞职 公司:系集团内部正常调动
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-11 12:28
8月11日,沙河股份(000014)(000014.SZ,股价12.95元,市值31.34亿元)公告称,陈勇因工作调动原 因,申请辞去公司董事长、董事等职务。辞职后,陈勇不再在公司担任任何职务。截至目前,陈勇及其 直系亲属未持有公司股份。公告中,沙河股份董事会对陈勇多年来的工作表示了感谢。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,陈勇自2013年8月被选举为沙河股份董事长以来,已经连续任职12年。 而其任职期间内,公司业绩波动较大,在经历2023年的高增长后,去年沙河股份的营收和归母净利润均 出现大幅下滑。公司上市后任职时间最长的董事长 上市公司公告称,陈勇的辞职未导致公司董事会成员低于法定人数,不会影响公司董事会正常运作。公 司将按照法定程序尽快完成董事补选、董事长选举等工作。 据沙河股份公告,陈勇于1970年1月出生,1991年7月本科毕业于安徽大学,1994年7月硕士毕业于中国 人民大学。早期陈勇曾任职于深圳市物业发展(集团)股份有限公司,历任秘书科科长、下属国贸发展公 司总经理、吉发仓储公司总经理及本部资产部经理。陈勇还加入深圳市沙河实业(集团)有限公司,历任 资产部经理、总经理助理兼沙河医院支部书记等职。 20 ...
楼市快报||2025年上半年重庆房地产市场总结与分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 08:51
Policy Overview - In January 2025, Chongqing government issued policies to improve the housing tax pilot program, excluding non-local buyers from taxation on ordinary residential purchases [2] - From February 8, 2025, the trading restrictions on previously limited housing in central urban areas were lifted, enhancing market liquidity [2] - By April 15, 2025, the first mortgage rate was reduced to 3.25%, and the down payment ratio for first homes dropped to 15% [2] High-Quality Housing Initiatives - On May 19, 2025, Chongqing's planning authority introduced measures to support high-quality residential development, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability [3] - The 2025 housing development plan aims to supply approximately 15 million square meters of commercial housing and 24,000 rental housing units [3] Real Estate Market Analysis - From January to June 2025, industrial land transactions dominated, accounting for 68.42% of total land sales, while residential land made up about 21.05%, with a 71.43% increase in transaction numbers year-on-year [6] - The average floor price for residential land in central Chongqing rose to 7,410 yuan/m², a 15.69% increase from the previous year [8] Residential Market Performance - The average residential price in central Chongqing was 14,054 yuan/m² in the first half of 2025, down 7.1% year-on-year [13] - Residential sales volume reached approximately 237.1 million m², a 10.7% increase year-on-year, while supply decreased by 10.9% [13] Commercial Real Estate Trends - The average price for commercial properties in central Chongqing was 11,559 yuan/m², reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year [14] - Commercial transaction volume decreased by 23.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate sector [15] Office Space Market - The average price for office space was 9,901 yuan/m², a 6.2% increase year-on-year, but transaction volume fell by 60.3% [23] - Key areas for office transactions included Shapingba, Jiangbei, and Yubei, with significant declines in other regions [26] Industrial and Warehouse Market - Investment in key industrial projects reached 240.95 billion yuan, achieving 50.2% of the annual target, with a focus on high-end and green industrial transformation [29] - Despite external economic pressures, the industrial land market showed significant growth, supported by government policies [29] Overall Market Summary - The residential market is stabilizing in core areas, while commercial and office sectors continue to face inventory challenges [30] - The overall real estate market in Chongqing remains in an adjustment phase, with some signs of recovery in select areas [30]
绿城哈尔滨“地王”项目75%股权出售,轻资产代建成转型新路径
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 06:55
| 项目名称 西安隆运房地产开发有限公司持有哈尔滨罐意置业有限公司75%股权 | 项目编号 FA250722001 | | --- | --- | | 转让庞价(万元) 20,168.86 | 3个工作日,如来证属到意向受让方,不变更猛牌条件按照1个工作 使露公告期 | | | 日为一个周期延长,直至征集到意向受让方。 | | 值患披露起始日期 2025-07-23 09:00:00 | 值息按露培里期 2025-07-28 17:00:00 | 文 | 白杨 2025年7月下旬,一则来自西部产权交易所的股权转让公告,引起黑龙江地产界的广泛关注,公告显 示,西安耀诚房地产开发有限公司拟转让其持有的哈尔滨耀意置业有限公司75%股权,转让底价 20168.86万元。 此次交易的披露公告期仅三个工作日,且股权受让方需在3个工作日内签约并一次性付清全款,同时缴 纳100万元保证金,这样的条款与极短的交易窗口期,凸显了转让方迫切的资金回笼需求。此次转让完 成后,西安耀诚持股比例将从100%降至25%。 2022年5月绿城·诚园以改善盘姿态亮相,据贝壳新房平台显示,2022年6月,项目参考均价约15000元/ 平方米;到 ...
7月百城新旧房价格继续分化 业内:短期楼市仍处调整期
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-07 15:20
Core Insights - The real estate market in July showed a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][4]. New Housing Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [1][2]. - First-tier cities led the new housing price recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in July, driven by high-end improvement projects [2]. - Second-tier cities also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, with Hangzhou leading at 1.51% [2]. - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities faced pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 0.19% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand in the real estate market experienced a seasonal decline, with new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities at 8.36 million square meters in July, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3]. - The central government emphasized transitioning from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, which may inject vitality into the new housing market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.77% and a year-on-year decline of 7.32% [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a "price for volume" strategy, with significant price drops in cities like Huai'an and Yancheng [4]. - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 14 key monitored cities decreased by 1.83% month-on-month and 9.05% year-on-year [5]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is facing challenges, with increasing listing volumes leading to a longer de-stocking cycle of 16.8 months, indicating weakened market absorption capacity [6]. - Analysts predict that without significant external positive factors, the second-hand housing market may experience simultaneous declines in both volume and price in the second half of the year [6].
连平:房价还会大幅下跌吗?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-08-07 06:47
Group 1: Market Overview - The national real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a significant narrowing of the decline in sales and prices since the beginning of the year. As of June, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 9.4 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - New home prices have seen a monthly average decline of 0.2%, while second-hand home prices have decreased by 0.4% on average per month, both showing a smaller decline compared to the monthly average levels of 2024 [1] - The introduction of supportive policies, including a special loan program expanding to 8.5 trillion yuan, has positively impacted risk management for real estate companies [1] Group 2: Performance Disparities Among Developers - There is a notable divergence in performance among real estate companies, with state-owned enterprises and some central enterprises experiencing a sales recovery, with some revenue growth exceeding 30% year-on-year due to their focus on first-tier and key second-tier cities [2] - In contrast, many private and small real estate firms, primarily holding assets in third and fourth-tier cities, have faced significant revenue declines due to weak market demand and financial pressures from asset devaluation [2] - The overall asset-liability ratio of real estate developers remains high, with many companies experiencing a decrease in annual sales capacity and cash flow pressures [2] Group 3: Market Challenges and Adjustments - The real estate market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with changes in supply and demand dynamics. The purchasing power and income expectations of residents have not returned to the levels seen during the "golden era" of real estate [3] - Urbanization is shifting focus from rapid development to more concentrated growth in urban clusters, leading to diminished demand in previously booming third and fourth-tier cities [3] - The slowdown in urban residents' income growth and the decline in financial product yields have negatively impacted buyer confidence, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue its contraction in the second half of the year, with a projected year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area of around 5% and new and second-hand home prices expected to drop by 2% to 4% [6] - The ongoing high asset-liability ratios and declining investment returns will continue to pose challenges for real estate companies, with an anticipated investment decline of approximately 10% for the year [6] - The market is unlikely to see a significant rebound in prices, with expectations of a more stable supply-demand relationship emerging over the medium term [6] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market, it is recommended to implement targeted macro and industrial policies, including lowering mortgage rates and optimizing housing tax incentives [7] - Increasing the supply of residential land in first-tier and key second-tier cities is suggested to meet local housing market demands [8] - The introduction of public REITs and enhancing non-bank financing channels for large real estate firms are recommended to alleviate cash flow and debt pressures [8]
房地产调整到了什么阶段?对经济的影响有多大?|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-06 08:26
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with sales, investment, and prices continuing to decline, leading to a shift in the sector's contribution to GDP from positive to negative [5][6][25]. Group 1: Current Market Status - The real estate market has experienced a deep adjustment since the second half of 2021, with key metrics such as sales area and sales revenue dropping to 60.4% and 56.9% of their 2021 peaks by 2024, respectively [8]. - By the first half of 2025, the sales area and revenue further declined to 57.6% and 50.9% of the same period in 2021, indicating a continued downward trend [11]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased significantly, with a 47.6% rise in unsold area by 2024 compared to 2021 [8]. Group 2: Price Trends - New home prices in first- and second-tier cities showed signs of stabilization in late 2024 and early 2025, but began to decline again in the second quarter of 2025 [9]. - As of June 2025, new home prices fell by 3.7% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices dropped by 6.1%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous periods [17]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from a positive to a negative impact, with its value added decreasing from a peak of 9 trillion yuan in 2021 to a projected 6.3% of GDP in 2024 [25][26]. - Real estate investment accounted for approximately 20% of fixed asset investment, becoming the largest drag on overall investment growth [28]. - The construction industry, heavily reliant on real estate, has seen a significant reduction in employment, with nearly 13 million migrant workers leaving the sector from 2021 to 2024 [31]. Group 4: Fiscal Implications - Land sale revenues have declined sharply, affecting local government finances. In 2024, land sale revenues fell to 4.87 trillion yuan, down from a peak of 8.71 trillion yuan in 2021 [34][35]. - The reliance on land sale revenues for local government budgets has decreased from 35.9% in 2021 to 17.3% in 2024, limiting fiscal capacity [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently in a slow bottoming phase, with long-term demand supported by urbanization, population growth, and housing improvement needs [9]. - The transition from a high-growth model to a more stable one is ongoing, with the need to manage market adjustments carefully to prevent excessive price fluctuations [40][41].