收入小幅下滑，略低于预期 2026.01. 30 本文字数：2599，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 "真金白银"的全国财政数据对外披露，全国财政运行总体平稳。 1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，公开了2025年全国财政收支状况。 根据财政部数据，在收入方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，同比下降1.7%。全 国政府性基金预算收入57704亿元，同比下降7%。在支出方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算支出 287395亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金预算支出112874亿元，同比增长11.3%。 财政部国库司副司长郑涌在上述会上表示，2025年财政收入总体平稳运行，重点支出保障有力。去 年各级财政部门实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给力，加强国家重大战略任务和基本民生 财力保障，为完成全年经济社会发展主要目标任务提供有力支撑。 财政部数据显示，2025年印花税4270亿元，增长24.1%，其中，证券交易印花税2035亿元，增长 57.8%。出口退税21337亿元，增长10.7%。 相比于去年税收收入微增，非税收入出现明显下滑，这跟上一年高基数有 ...

"真金白银"的全国财政数据对外披露，全国财政运行总体平稳。 1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，公开了2025年全国财政收支状况。 根据财政部数据，在收入方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，同比下降1.7%。全国政 府性基金预算收入57704亿元，同比下降7%。在支出方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算支出287395亿 元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金预算支出112874亿元，同比增长11.3%。 财政部国库司副司长郑涌在上述会上表示，2025年财政收入总体平稳运行，重点支出保障有力。去年各 级财政部门实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给力，加强国家重大战略任务和基本民生财力保 障，为完成全年经济社会发展主要目标任务提供有力支撑。 收入小幅下滑，略低于预期 受经济增长放缓、楼市土地市场低迷、物价低迷等多重因素影响，2025年全国财政收入出现小幅下滑。 2025年-全国一般公共预算收入增速同比下降1.7%，低于2025年初官方预期值（0.1%），也低于2024年 这一收入增速（1.3%）。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成。根据财政部数据，2025年全国 ...

关于2025年财政政策的成效 一、加大逆周期调节力度。一是2025年赤字率按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分点；新增政府债务规模11.86万亿元，比上年增加2.9万亿元，这些都远 超前几年的平均水平。二是发行特别国债5000亿元，用于补充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本，有力提升了我国银行业乃至金融业支持实体经济的能力。 三是安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有效投资。尽管我们增加了赤字和政府债券规模，但从国际比较看，我国政 府负债率依然较低，远低于G20国家政府负债率平均水平。 2026年，按照中央经济工作会议部署，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。 "总量增加"，就是要扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、 重点领域保障"只强不弱"。要着重强调的是，在2025年更加积极的基础上继续扩大财政支出盘子，本身就体现了政策是十分积极的。同时，我们也充分考 虑了财政中长期可持续性，注重增强发展后劲。 "结构更优"，主要就是要持续优化支出结构，确 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-29 TL连续修复，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Chinese government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, focusing on increasing total fiscal input, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing economic momentum[4] - In 2025, the general public budget revenue is projected to be CNY 20,051.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at CNY 16,481.4 billion, up 1.8%[5] - The total public budget expenditure for 2025 is expected to reach CNY 24,853.8 billion, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year growth, with key areas like social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health accounting for 42.71% of the expenditure[5] Debt Management and Local Government Bonds - In 2025, the new government debt scale is set at CNY 11.86 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.9 trillion from the previous year, significantly higher than the average levels of recent years[6] - Local government bond issuance reached a record high of CNY 10.29 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%[7] - By the end of 2025, the local government debt balance is projected to be CNY 54.61 trillion, a 15.37% increase from the previous year, with a government debt ratio of 38.96%, up 3.87 percentage points[7] Support for Urban Investment and Infrastructure - The fiscal policy aims to support urban investment enterprises in participating in public infrastructure and technological innovation projects, facilitating their transformation[4] - The issuance of special bonds for urban infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate, with a focus on urban infrastructure, transportation, and industrial parks[7] - The government will continue to promote the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds to support major national strategies and key areas, enhancing investment and consumption[8] Risk Management and Financial Stability - The implementation of a comprehensive debt management policy has led to a reduction in the average interest cost of local government debt by over 2.5 percentage points, saving more than CNY 450 billion in interest expenses[11] - The overall government debt level is projected to be CNY 92.6 trillion by the end of 2024, with local government hidden debt at CNY 10.5 trillion, maintaining a reasonable debt ratio of 68.7%[11] - The proactive fiscal measures are expected to create favorable conditions for urban investment enterprises to manage risks and optimize their financial structures[10]

【市场表现】 【政策面】 财政部表示，2026年，按照中央经济工作会议部署，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。"动能更强"，就是深化财税重点领域改革，进一 步激发经济的内生活力。优化转移支付结构，增强地方自主财力和统筹能力，提高转移支付资金效能。 通过加强财政资源和预算统筹、强化预算绩效管理、落实优化出口退税政策、清理规范税收优惠和财政 补贴等改革举措，进一步增强地方财政发展动能、助力全国统一大市场建设。总之，2026年财政部门 将"硬核"支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，确保"十五五"实现良好开局。 【操作建议】 昨日股市降温，股债跷跷板影响下，期债震荡回升。往后看债市走向或主要取决于一季度政策力度和供 需状况，短期或仍处于震荡格局中，10债利率或在1.82%-1.88%区间震荡，T2603合约波动区间或在 107.6-108.3区间震荡，目前T2503合约在108.3附近可能面临一定上行阻力。单边策略上仍维持区间操 作。期现策略上关注TS、T与TF合约正套以及做阔基差策略。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资 ...

2025 £ 支出预算实际完成11516.1亿元,增长0.5% 全力落实更加积极的财政政策,多 措并举推动扩大内需 ●下达超长期特别国债等资金 283.4亿元,支持 456个设备更新项目建设和汽车、家电等领域消费 品以旧资新 ● 全年发行新增专项债券 1361.4亿元用于项目建 设,十地储备,收购存量商品院用作保障性住房资。 其中用作项目资本金额度213.8亿元,政府投资播 动作用得到充分发挥 ●下达超长期特别国债"两重"和国省基建投资 419 亿元,支持实施一批重大民生和基础设施项目 ●下达175.1亿元,推动构建现代公路"一张网"和 现代化内河航运体露 ●引导省属金融企业通过各类金融业务投放资金融 1.3万亿元,进一步提升服务实体经济质效 推动科技创新和产业创新深度融 (2) 合,促进新质生产力加快培育壮大 ●安排20亿元制造业高质量发展专项资金,推动加 快建设制造强省 ●下达46.7亿元,支持省科学院创新发展、省实验 室高标准入轨运行,推动中原科技城、中原医学科学 城、中原农谷建设整体起势 ●安排 7.2亿元,支持科技创新平台建设和科技成 奥转移转化 ●安排13.3亿元,强化高层次人才引育 ● 全省支持 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The first batch of 2025 performance reports from listed banks has been released, with eight banks including China Merchants Bank and Huatai Bank reporting positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with seven of them achieving both revenue and net profit growth [6][7] - Key characteristics observed among these banks include steady asset expansion, improved asset quality with no significant increase in non-performing loan ratios, and increased provisioning efforts despite a decline in coverage ratios [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that benefiting from monetary policy, the decline in interest margins is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a rebound in net interest income growth, while insurance policies are anticipated to boost fee income [7] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance has released five important fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and implementing special guarantees for private investment [8][9] - These policies are designed to lower financing costs across various sectors, enhance credit demand in key areas, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, thereby injecting strong momentum into the economy [9][10] - The government emphasizes a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support high-quality development and address challenges in the economy [8] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the addition of 14 futures and options products as specific domestic varieties, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's futures market [11] - This expansion is the largest in history, with the total number of specific domestic varieties reaching 38, and aims to enhance China's pricing power in global markets [11] - The CSRC's recent actions reflect a zero-tolerance approach towards market manipulation, as evidenced by a substantial fine of 1.02 billion yuan imposed for long-term stock price manipulation [12] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as trade disruptions [13] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to maintain growth rates above 4.0%, while advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [13]

财政部表示，将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水 平，实现"只增不减"的总体支出力度和"只强不弱"的重点领域保障。这表明积极的财政政策将继续支持 经济增长和关键领域发展，同时更加注重战略性、结构优化和精准滴灌。此外，财政部还提到财政金融 协同促内需一揽子政策已经陆续发布，旨在通过协同发力，更大力度地"激发民间投资"和"促进居民消 费"。在支持科技创新方面，财政部提出了多维度培育新动能的政策举措。 整体看，在积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策以及财政金融协同发力的推动下，国内经济将呈现结 构更优、内生动能更强的良好发展态势。 工业生产稳中有进，2025年规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，其中制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，表 现强劲。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重达到36.8%。高技术制造 业增加值同比增长9.4%，已成为引领工业高质量发展的核心驱动力。在新旧动能加速转型期，虽然整 体经济仍受房地产等传统领域调整的影响，但消费市场活力提升、新质生产力加快形成，为经济复苏奠 定了坚实基础。 宏观政策积极发力 1月20日，国新办举办两场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the Chinese government's commitment to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total fiscal expenditure while optimizing its structure and improving efficiency [2][3]. - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" [2]. - The government aims to stimulate domestic demand through a package of fiscal and financial policies, emphasizing support for private investment and consumer spending [3]. Group 2 - The fiscal policy will include measures to support technological innovation, with a focus on government investment funds, enhancing key industries, and strengthening the role of enterprises in innovation [4]. - By 2025, the fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to achieve balance, with a stable recovery in public budget revenue and strong expenditure in key areas such as social security, technology, education, and health [6]. - In the first eleven months, expenditures in social security, technology, education, and health exceeded 10 trillion yuan, accounting for over 40% of total public budget expenditures [6].