Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish rebound, with a target of reaching around $4250, supported by a lack of significant bearish factors in the fundamentals [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market anticipates the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will lead to the resumption of economic data releases, expected to show deterioration, thereby supporting gold prices [3][6]. - The ADP report predicts a weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs in the U.S. private sector, while Goldman Sachs estimates a decrease of about 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, the largest drop since 2020, potentially creating conditions for a Fed rate cut next month [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price opened at $4115.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $4148.65 before retreating to a low of $4097.25, ultimately closing at $4126.73, with a daily fluctuation of $51.4 [1][10]. - The weekly chart indicates that gold has not broken below the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential rebound and a return to the 5-week moving average [8]. Future Outlook - The market expects a 64% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, bolstered by recent comments from Fed officials regarding the labor market and inflation [6]. - Institutions predict that gold demand in the coming years may reach its strongest level since 2011, providing fundamental support for gold prices [6]. Resistance and Support Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4125 or $4110, while resistance levels are at $4185 or $4230 [11].

"美联储的降息节奏仍存在不确定性。"赵复初分析道，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降 息25个基点的概率为64.1%，远低于此前的90%。短期内美国就业下行和通胀风险依然存在，且经济下 行压力不大，降低了12月继续降息的急迫性。美国ISM制造业PMI连续8个月处于萎缩区间，需求与就 业持续走弱，但服务业景气度尚可；ADP就业数据超预期反弹，一年期通胀预期持续反弹，且持续高于 美联储目标水平，这些因素都压制了降息空间。 "另外，尽管美国政府'停摆'即将结束，但通胀和就业数据需要较长时间才能正常公布，这导致美联储 无法获得足够的数据来判断是否降息，叠加政府支出或持续释放6月以来短债融资的7000亿美元资金， 在美元流动性充裕的情况下，滞胀风险持续上升，美联储降息节奏可以适当放缓。预计美联储接下来更 倾向于用其他政策工具对资金面进行呵护，而非机械性降息。"赵复初称。 本周，金银价格强势反弹。11月11日，伦敦金现货价格重回4140美元／盎司一线，伦敦银现货价格重新 站上51美元／盎司。内盘方面，截至下午收盘，沪金期货价格涨超2%，沪银期货价格涨超3%。 对此，东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，黄金市 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill on November 10, which is a crucial step towards reopening the federal government after the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1][2] - The bill will provide funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, and includes full-year funding for specific departments and programs [4] - The bill also ensures that federal employees will receive back pay for the duration of the shutdown and prevents mass layoffs during this period [4] Group 1 - The Senate voted 60 in favor and 40 against the funding bill, breaking the deadlock through negotiations led by three former governors [2] - The bill was supported by five centrist Democratic senators, alongside three Democrats who had been supporting the government reopening since October 1 [2] - The Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, promised a vote on extending enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by the second week of December [4] Group 2 - The bill will next be sent to the House of Representatives for a vote, with House Speaker Mike Johnson urging members to return to Washington [5] - There is significant opposition among House Democrats regarding the temporary funding bill, with concerns about its implications for healthcare benefits [7] - Even if the bill is signed into law, it only addresses three of the twelve annual appropriations needed, indicating potential future funding crises [7]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals rose. The positive progress in the US government shutdown negotiation is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is beneficial to the release of short - term liquidity. After the official data is released, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driver and may continue to build a high - level shock platform. The international gold price should focus on the resistance around $4150 per ounce [1] Other Key Points US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review [1] - The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan: The possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut should be made [2] - Fed's Musalem: The labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling. The room for further policy easing is limited. Caution must be exercised [2] - Fed's Daly: There is no inflation pressure from labor costs. Policymakers need to keep an open mind about further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Agreement News - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to lower tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not determined [2] - Trump: Close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year - on - year. Imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is experiencing upward momentum due to market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and economic concerns stemming from the U.S. government shutdown [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Concerns - Optimistic market sentiment and a slight increase in the dollar have not diminished the bullish trend for gold [2]. - Concerns regarding the economic impact of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history are key factors supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3]. - The Senate reached a compromise to advance a bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, which began on October 1 [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market expectations indicate a greater than 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December [3]. - This dovish stance from the Fed is likely to limit the dollar's appeal, benefiting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold is currently consolidating below the key resistance level of $4155-$4160, preparing for the next upward move [4]. - The XAU/USD pair appears to be stabilizing above the 50% retracement level of a significant pullback since reaching historical highs in October [6]. - A breakthrough above the $4155-$4160 range could confirm a bullish trend, with potential to reach the $4200 mark, which is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $4115, $4100, and $4075, which may prevent short-term declines [6].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill with a vote of 60-40, marking a significant step towards reopening the federal government [1] - The bill is now sent to the House of Representatives for review, with a vote expected as early as November 12 [1] - The bill includes funding for essential services, such as food assistance, and salary payments for federal employees who were furloughed during the shutdown [1] - The omission of the extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies from the final text has caused dissatisfaction among the left wing of the Democratic Party [1] - The House has been in recess since mid-September, and the political and economic pressure from the shutdown has prompted Republican leadership to expedite the reopening process [1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson faces internal party challenges in pushing the bill through due to divisions within the Republican Party [1] - Trump's support for the Senate agreement may alleviate some opposition within the House Republican caucus [2] - If passed, the temporary funding bill will provide financial support for key social programs until the end of the 2026 fiscal year [2] - There are warnings that Congress may face another funding deadlock when the new round of funding expires, potentially reigniting disputes over healthcare subsidies [2]

来源：市场资讯 消息面： 11月11日，金价周一强势上涨，单日涨幅达2.8%，收于每盎司4111.39美元，创下两周多以来的最高收 盘水平。上周公布的疲软经济数据使市场对美联储政策的预期转向鸽派，12月降息的可能性依然较高。 近期数据显示美国10月就业岗位减少，消费者信心显著下滑，这些因素共同强化了市场的宽松货币政策 预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，目前市场定价显示12月降息概率为64%，至明年1月概率进一步攀升至 77%。有分析师预计，到今年年底黄金价格可能升至每盎司4200-4300美元区间，并认为明年第一季度 达到5000美元仍是一个合理目标。与此同时，美国参议院周日推进结束政府停摆的法案，也为市场消除 了一个不确定性因素，进一步支撑了黄金的避险吸引力。 国际黄金： 昨日黄金持续反弹，行情重回极端情绪化看涨状态，日线收得一实体饱和大阳线，贯穿突破20日线4080 压力，站上4110上方。回顾昨日黄金上涨，主要原因还是受美政府停摆担忧、美联储降息预期以及地缘 局势带来的避险情绪加持影响，而这种偏激看涨情绪沉寂一段时间后，突然又再度被集中拿来炒作，导 致行情走势显得诡谲异常，对此务必还是要谨慎对待， ...

贸易前景担忧再度升温，尽管市场对美国政府停摆接近结束抱有乐观情绪，但这一积极因素未能有效提振风险偏好。受此影响，美股指期货及多 数加密货币普遍回调，避险资金推动现货黄金价格走高。 11月11日，市场情绪趋于谨慎。美股指期货普遍走低，欧股开盘集体上涨，亚洲主要股指表现分化。因逢退伍军人节假期，美债市场休市，美元 指数整体持平。黄金、白银同步上涨，加密货币延续跌势。 美国政府停摆41天创下历史记录，预计最早将于周三结束。此前，参议院推进临时拨款法案被市场解读为僵局打破的信号，市场情绪得以提振。 墨尔本Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen表示： "市场信心依然谨慎。尽管投资者欢迎'恢复营业'的氛围，但长达一个月的经济数据空白期意味着下一波美国经济数据发布可能会带来 新的意外——即使在乐观情绪高涨的情况下，市场仍需保持警惕。" 核心市场走势如下： 美股期指集体小幅回调。虽然政府开门让经济数据得以恢复公布，有助于市场评估美联储政策，但贸易前景的不确定性显著抑制了乐观情绪。 | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6845.50d | -11.25 | -0.16% | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic record of 41 days, with a temporary funding bill passed in the Senate, potentially ending the shutdown soon [1] - The Senate approved the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act with a vote of 60 to 40, but it still requires approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives [1] - The core issue of the shutdown revolves around extending tax credits for the Affordable Care Act, affecting 24 million Americans who may face increased insurance premiums [1] Group 2 - The agreement indicates that Democrats find it challenging to leverage their limited influence against Trump's agenda in a Republican-controlled Washington [2] - Polls show that during the shutdown, the public primarily blames Congress's deadlock on Republicans rather than Democrats, indicating a shift in political risk [2] - The reopening of federal departments may lead to significant backlogs and delays, particularly affecting 42 million low-income Americans in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2]