Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities predicts that the Swiss National Bank will implement two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, contrary to their previous stance that no further cuts would occur after March [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The Swiss National Bank is expected to take action to curb the strength of the Swiss franc, which is currently at its highest effective exchange rate since 2008 [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are seen as a response to the ongoing economic uncertainty driven by further rate cuts from the European Central Bank and U.S. tariff policies [1] - The expected actions in June and September meetings may signal a return to negative interest rates, marking an end to the normalization of monetary policy post-COVID-19 [1]

野村证券预计瑞士央行将再次采用负 利率，并预计将在九月份达到终端利率为-0.25%的水平。 ...

金十数据4月14日讯，经济学家表示，瑞士央行今年将避免将利率降至零以下，以努力遏制瑞郎的走 强。在彭博社对分析央行货币政策走向的分析师进行的调查中，高盛集团是唯一预测利率将回归负值的 投行。大多数人预测，官方将把利率维持在目前0.25%的水平。这一前景表明，在特朗普的关税战引发 市场动荡之际，政策制定者可能需要转而抛售瑞郎，以遏制瑞郎兑美元升至10年来最高水平的涨势。瑞 士央行一直小心翼翼地不排除负利率的可能性，以防止消费者价格下跌过大，并使该国出口商免受本币 走强的影响。但官员们承认，他们给金融体系造成的痛苦并不理想。 机构调查：瑞士央行似乎不会采取负利率来对抗瑞郎升值 ...

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a tightening of funds in March, with economic data showing stability and improvement, leading to a divergence in the performance of interest rate bonds and credit bonds [5] - In March, the yields on 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year interest rate bonds increased, while the credit spreads for short-term credit bonds narrowed significantly, with reductions exceeding 20 basis points [5][11] - The default amount in March slightly decreased to 3.78 billion, down from 3.82 billion in the previous month, with no new defaulting entities reported [31] Group 2 - The U.S. service sector showed signs of recovery, with a slight increase in new employment, while core inflation in the U.S. declined, maintaining high inflation expectations [5][41][42] - Domestic economic indicators suggest a steady improvement, with a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.1% year-on-year for January-February, slightly lower than the previous month, but still above the annual target [5][53] - The domestic demand continues to show signs of recovery, while external demand remains resilient, although the effect of export competition has noticeably weakened [5][57] Group 3 - The monetary policy meeting in the first quarter emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and increased coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [5][102] - The high-frequency macro diffusion index from Guosen Securities indicates a continuous rise, suggesting improved economic growth momentum, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [5][75][71] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the relationship between policy rates and market rates, especially in the context of a potential "negative interest rate" environment [5][107]

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $3135 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in the global economic order driven by geopolitical tensions, changing monetary policies, and structural supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices have increased over 19% since the beginning of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, with key price milestones being surpassed in late March to early April [3]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted from caution to enthusiasm, as evidenced by substantial inflows into Asian gold ETFs, indicating a surge in regional risk aversion [4]. - The COMEX gold futures market shows a high level of speculative long positions, with 67% of open interest being held by speculative traders, indicating increased volatility [5]. Volatility Indicators - The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has surpassed 25, reaching a 12-month high, signaling that investors are preparing for potential significant price fluctuations due to upcoming policy changes and geopolitical events [6]. Driving Forces - Geopolitical risk premium accounts for 40% of the current gold price surge, influenced by trade tensions and rising inflation expectations, with significant impacts from U.S. tariffs and Middle Eastern conflicts [7][8]. - Expectations of a shift in monetary policy contribute 35% to the gold price dynamics, as markets anticipate potential interest rate cuts and a decline in the dollar's dominance [9][10]. - Structural supply-demand imbalances make up 25% of the driving factors, with central banks increasing gold purchases and mining output facing constraints [11][12][13]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term volatility is anticipated as the U.S. tariff decision approaches, with potential profit-taking by speculative traders [14]. - Long-term support for gold prices is expected from ongoing de-dollarization trends and structural supply-demand issues, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price increase to $3300 by the end of 2025, and possibly reaching $4200 under certain conditions [15]. - Investors are advised to adopt a multi-faceted strategy to balance risks, particularly in gold mining stocks, as the geopolitical and economic landscape continues to evolve [16].