Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total volume of the financial industry grew. The logistics and transportation in the service industry showed steady growth, with positive year - on - year growth in imports, exports, and exports in June, and the growth rates were rising. The upstream energy prices were volatile, and the prices of some agricultural products rebounded. The开工 rates of some chemical products in the mid - stream recovered, and the real - estate sales in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low, while the number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Production Industry - **Coal Industry**: The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized maintaining safety, scientific production, improving supply quality, and promoting market balance. It will act as a bridge between the government and enterprises to deal with risks [1]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The EU may impose additional counter - tariff measures on US$84 billion worth of US imported goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [1]. 2. Service Industry - **Monetary and Credit Data**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [2]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [2]. 3. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices fluctuated [2]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices rebounded [2]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of urea and PTA recovered, while the operating rates of PX and polyester remained stable [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 13, the credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 54.16 last week to 49.63 this week, and the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 33.69 last week to 30.03 this week [51]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 11, the prices of various industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2351.4 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%, and the spot price of palm oil was 8944.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [52].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale increased significantly in the first half of the year, supported mainly by government bonds, with a notable rise in M2 growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and M2 Growth - In the first half of the year, the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - As of the end of June, the social financing scale and M2 balance grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][4]. - Government bond net financing contributed significantly, with an addition of 7.66 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.1% of the total increase in social financing [2][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The financial data from the first half of the year indicates that monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, with expectations for continued reasonable growth in credit in the second half [6]. - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic and social development goals for the year [6]. - Experts predict that as the effects of government bond issuance and low base effects diminish, the growth rate of financial totals will stabilize at reasonable levels [6]. Group 3: Credit and Loan Growth - As of the end of June, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, although this is about 1.7 percentage points lower than the previous year [7][8]. - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with 2.24 trillion yuan added in June alone [8]. - The loan structure showed positive trends, with significant increases in loans to manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, and a notable rise in loans related to the "five major areas" of finance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting reasonable growth in money and credit supply [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has introduced a series of monetary and credit policies, including a package of 10 measures announced on May 7, aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting the economy [6][7]. - As of the end of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - In the first half of the year, the incremental social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the financial system is effectively meeting the funding needs of the real economy [2][5]. - The PBOC emphasizes the need for time to observe the effects of implemented monetary policies and will continue to assess their transmission and effectiveness [2][5]. Focus Areas for Future Policies - The PBOC plans to maintain a balance between supporting the real economy and ensuring the health of the financial system, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [9][10]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial services to the real economy by improving the policy framework and ensuring that monetary policy tools are effectively utilized [9][10]. Currency Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC is committed to maintaining the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a focus on stabilizing the currency at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. - Recent trends show that the RMB has remained stable against the USD, with fluctuations managed effectively since early April [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released financial statistics for the first half of 2025, indicating a moderate monetary policy aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy. Group 1: Monetary Supply - Broad money (M2) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June [2] - Narrow money (M1) grew by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - Cash in circulation (M0) rose by 12% year-on-year, amounting to 13.18 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan in the first half [2] Group 2: Loans and Deposits - Total RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - Household loans rose by 1.17 trillion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [3] - Total RMB deposits grew by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5] Group 3: Foreign Currency Loans and Deposits - Foreign currency loans decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total balance of 560.9 billion USD [4] - Foreign currency deposits increased by 21.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.02 trillion USD [6] Group 4: Interbank Market and Interest Rates - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending was 1.46%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [8] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market was 974.04 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction of 8.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [7] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Cross-Border Settlements - The national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD by the end of June [9] - Cross-border RMB settlement for current accounts reached 8.3 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements totaling 4.11 trillion yuan [10] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [11] - The focus will be on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a focus on fixed income assets, European equities, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, suggesting a cautious outlook on U.S. equities due to economic pressures [1][2]. Core Insights - The U.S. debt burden is projected to reach $1.4-1.5 trillion by 2025, exceeding 20% of fiscal revenue, which poses potential risks to the economy [1][4]. - The U.S. economy is currently facing high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which historically correlate with economic downturns [1][6]. - There is a notable decline in corporate financing activities due to increased costs and policy uncertainties, leading to a decrease in money supply growth [1][7]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Context - The report highlights a reallocation of funds from U.S. equities to non-U.S. markets, particularly European equities and fixed income assets, driven by reduced support for the U.S. economy [2]. U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has doubled post-pandemic, with interest burdens rising rapidly, leading to concerns about sustainability and economic stability [3][4]. - The Trump administration's measures to address the debt crisis, including increasing revenue and negotiating lower interest rates, have had limited success [5]. Economic Challenges - The combination of high inflation, interest rates, and wages is squeezing corporate profitability, raising concerns about potential profit contractions [6]. - Increased financing costs and policy uncertainties are leading to reduced corporate borrowing and investment activities [7]. Fixed Income Opportunities - Global central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, are in a trend of lowering interest rates, creating investment opportunities in fixed income categories despite short-term uncertainties in the U.S. and U.K. [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued opportunities in the bond market, suggesting that investors should actively allocate to bond assets, especially in the upcoming third quarter [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a 2.5% increase in total deposits of recognized institutions in May 2025, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 6.7% and 7.9% respectively from the beginning of the year to the end of May [1] - Hong Kong's Renminbi deposits fell by 5.4% in May, totaling 975.6 billion Renminbi, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - Cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi amounted to 1,123.6 billion Renminbi in May, down from 1,362.1 billion Renminbi in April [1] Group 2: Money Supply - The Hong Kong dollar money supply M2 and M3 both rose by 3.2% in May, with year-on-year increases of 9.5% [1] - Seasonally adjusted Hong Kong dollar money supply M1 increased by 12.3% in May, with a year-on-year rise of 18.5%, partly reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 2.5% in May, with year-on-year increases of 10.7% for both M2 and M3 [1]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Growth - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - In the first five months, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2: Social Financing and Loans - The total social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The balance of loans to the real economy reached 262.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [3] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [4] Group 3: Deposits and Financial Market Rates - The total RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months, with household deposits rising by 8.3 trillion yuan [5] - The weighted average interbank lending rate in May was 1.55%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The loan market quotation rate for one-year loans was 3.00%, and for loans over five years, it was 3.50%, both lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of May, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 95.96, down 5.43% from the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1848, appreciating by 0.05% compared to the end of last year, while the RMB depreciated against the Euro and Yen by 7.80% and 7.28% respectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that in May, the new social financing scale in China reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a reasonable growth in financial volume supported mainly by government bonds [1][2] - The net financing scale of government bonds in May was 6.31 trillion yuan, up by 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by factors such as the accelerated issuance of special refinancing bonds and local government special bonds [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in May was 3.2%, which is approximately 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, reflecting a favorable borrowing environment for enterprises [5] Group 2 - The broad money supply (M2) at the end of May was 352.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.3% year-on-year [3] - The growth of M1 indicates a significant increase in "liquid money," suggesting that recent financial support measures have effectively boosted market confidence and economic activities [3] - The total social financing scale for the first five months of the year reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a strong financing environment [6] Group 3 - The loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, supported by a recent interest rate cut that has stimulated loan demand [4] - The structure of credit has shown positive trends, with inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector growing by 11.6% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The replacement effect of bonds for loans has been increasingly evident, with nearly 90% of the social financing scale consisting of bonds and loans, indicating a shift in financing preferences [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April released by the People's Bank of China indicates a stable and supportive monetary environment for economic recovery, with an acceleration in social financing and steady credit issuance [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month; the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 1.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The central bank has increased short-term and medium-term liquidity through various operations, indicating a solid financial support for economic recovery [1] Social Financing - By the end of April, the total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the cumulative increase in social financing for the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The acceleration in social financing growth is attributed to a lower base from the previous year and a significant increase in government bond issuance [2] Loan Growth - The balance of RMB loans reached 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in April, RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, which is 450 billion yuan less than the same month last year [3] - The decrease in loan growth is influenced by seasonal factors and changes in the financing market, with April traditionally being a "small month" for credit [3] Loan Structure - In the loan structure, corporate loans contributed the majority of the increase, while household loans showed a decline; corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan, which is 250 billion yuan less than the previous year, while household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan [4] - The decline in household loans, particularly in short-term loans, indicates a need for further stimulation of consumer demand [4] Future Measures - The implementation of a series of financial policies is expected to support consumption recovery and growth; measures include the establishment of re-loans for service consumption and elderly care, aimed at reducing financing costs for financial institutions [5] - Fiscal and tax policies are also emphasized to support the development of new consumption sectors, creating new demand and enhancing consumer spending [6]

"4月末M2增速较快上扬，背后是上年同期基数大幅走低，以及当月社融增速加快，拉动存款派生。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青表示，当前M2增速明显高于名义GDP增速，显示金融对实体经济具有较强支持性。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，后续随着低基数效应的递减，未来M2同比增速会恢复到今年前几个月的正常 增长水平。 另外，狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%，较上月末小幅回落0.1个百分点。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月作为传统的信贷"小月"，信贷投放稳定性和可持续性有所增强。 5月14日，在央行公布的金融数据中，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，同比少增4500亿元；4月新增社会融资规模为 11585亿元，同比多增12243亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.0%；狭义货币（M1）同比增长1.5%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.14万亿元， 同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 在多位受访人士看来，受季节性效应、关税冲击以及债务置换等多因素影响下，4月新增信贷有所回落，但政府债 发行等支撑下，社融增速呈稳步走高态势，今年以来金融对 ...