Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 475.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate [1] - With 159.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the open market was 315.8 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 2.70 basis points to 1.4690%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 1.20 basis points to 1.5300% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor increased by 4.90 basis points to 1.6470% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates experienced slight fluctuations, with R007 and R014 continuing to show an inverted relationship [4] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 1.6 basis points and fell by 0.6 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw declines of 2.4 basis points and 3.4 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The funding environment on October 28 was characterized by a loose stance, with overnight transactions initially around 1.55% and gradually declining to a range of 1.45%-1.48% by the end of the day [8] - A total of 75 interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 181.72 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance of Banks - China Bank reported a third-quarter revenue of 162.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.069 billion yuan, up 5.09% [11] - For the first three quarters, the bank achieved a revenue of 492.115 billion yuan, a 2.72% increase, and a net profit of 177.66 billion yuan, up 1.08% [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Over the past half - week, the bond market showed an overall weak and volatile trend, characterized by "strong stocks and weak bonds, with sentiment disturbances as the main factor." The strong performance of A - shares and the rising expectations of Sino - US negotiations led to an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. There was no urgent expectation for short - term interest rate cuts, resulting in insufficient motivation for loose trading. Emotional fluctuations made funds more inclined to play short - term bands rather than take long - term positions. The new redemption fee rules, active bond switching, and the wait - and - see sentiment before the release of external CPI data also suppressed long - term allocation demand. The bond market remained in a weak and volatile range, mainly reflecting the defensive behavior of trading desks and profit - taking at high levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the stock market and the emotional recovery after the release of external inflation data [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - level - **Macro - policies**: On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT would be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and expand effective investment. The finance minister promised more proactive macro - policies, and the NDRC aimed to release domestic demand potential and manage over - capacity. In October, the US imposed export controls and special port fees on Chinese entities, and Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 [1]. - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [1]. Capital - level - **Fiscal**: The fiscal data showed "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, the general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on individual income tax, VAT, and stamp duty. The expenditure on social security, education, and debt interest payments maintained high growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still weak, with a narrowing decline in land sales but limited recovery, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Financial**: Financial data continued to show "stable liquidity and structural deficiencies in broad credit." The M1 growth rate rose to 7.2%, and the gap narrowed, indicating improved business activity. However, social financing and credit were still at a low level, and enterprise medium - and long - term financing was weak. Government bonds were the main source of social financing growth, and the monetary policy remained moderately loose [2]. - **Central Bank**: On October 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.41%, and 1.57% respectively, and the repo rates had recently increased [2]. Market - level - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.62 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 115.01 yuan respectively. Their weekly fluctuations were - 0.002%, - 0.04%, - 0.1%, and - 0.25% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the rising repo rates and the fluctuating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is considered neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Attention should be paid to the rebound of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Core Insights - The low inflation data in the US for September may lead to a less significant reaction from the money markets than previously anticipated [1] Group 1 - Mizuho macro observer Jordan Rochester highlighted the implications of the US September inflation data [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 138.2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan after 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight declines in the 7-day and 14-day tenors, with the 7-day Shibor down by 0.40 basis points to 1.4220% and the 14-day Shibor down by 5.20 basis points to 1.4520% [1][2] - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3180% [2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates showed minor fluctuations, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.3 basis points and 0.6 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates had mixed movements [5] - The total transaction volume for DR001 decreased by 108.4 billion yuan, while DR007 saw a decrease of 216 billion yuan [5] - The overall funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates showing a slight decline throughout the day [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. - Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% decrease and a - 4.55% change rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% increase and a 0.81% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.94, with a 0.35 increase and a 0.36% growth rate; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1191, with a 0.003 decrease and a - 0.04% change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.56% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.70% growth rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 increase and a 1.49% growth rate; The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.60, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.31% growth rate; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.09, with a 0.00 increase and a 0.31% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 115.59 yuan respectively, with daily changes of 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.16% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is - 0.018 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.240 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Expenditure continued to increase, with high growth rates in social security, education, and debt interest payments, providing stable support for aggregate demand. Government - managed fund budget revenue is still weak, and the decline in land sales has narrowed but the recovery is limited, while fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, indicating that the fiscal side is hedging against economic downward pressure by accelerating the expenditure pace [2]. - On October 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.317%, 1.426%, 1.504%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds, and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][31][32]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract through figures [34][37][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract through figures [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract through figures [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract through figures [61][63][67].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan, with a bid amount and winning amount of 159.5 billion yuan, and the operation rate remained at 1.40% [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products showed a slight increase, with overnight Shibor unchanged at 1.3170%, 7-day Shibor rising by 0.80 basis points to 1.4260%, and 14-day Shibor increasing by 3.60 basis points to 1.5040% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the weighted average rates for 7-day and 14-day products showed slight divergence, with DR001 and R001 rates unchanged at 1.3141% and 1.3632%, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased by 1.0 basis points and decreased by 0.9 basis points, respectively [5] - The trading volume for DR001 increased by 69.9 billion yuan, while that for R001 decreased by 133.8 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - The overall funding situation was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight transactions showing a weighted average rate of 1.40% and 7-day transactions at 1.43% [10] - As of 5:30 PM on October 21, there were 109 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 187.36 billion yuan [10][11]

Core Insights - The central conclusion of the report indicates that the central bank's quantitative tools demonstrate a protective attitude, with expectations for a seasonal decline in market interest rates in October [4][64][90] Overseas Monetary Market Indicators - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with expectations, leading to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 3-month Treasury yield gradually falling to around 4% [6] - The U.S. federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable since September [6] Domestic Monetary Market Indicators Price Indicators - The average interbank and exchange repo rates increased slightly in September, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changing by 4 basis points, 5 basis points, 4 basis points, and 8 basis points respectively, reaching average values of 1.43%, 1.43%, 1.55%, and 1.58% [15][24] - Short-term bond yields generally increased, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.39% [34] Volume Indicators - In September, the overnight transaction volume and proportion on exchanges increased compared to the previous month, while interbank transaction volume and proportion decreased [43] - The central bank's net injection maintained a balanced and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 720.2 billion yuan through open market operations [49] Funding Outlook - The report predicts a slight decline in the excess reserve ratio for October, estimating it at 1.6% [90] - The central bank is expected to continue net injections to maintain a stable funding environment, with a projected net injection of 500 billion yuan through open market operations in October [85][90] Seasonal Trends - The report notes seasonal patterns in M0, with an increase of 241.1 billion yuan in September and an expected increase of 60 billion yuan in October [65] - Fiscal deposits are expected to seasonally increase by 600 billion yuan in October due to concentrated tax revenue collection [71]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 236 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor remaining stable at 1.3160%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.4190%, and the 14-day Shibor decreasing by 0.90 basis points to 1.4430% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates saw slight increases, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 10.6%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 0.0 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 both rose by 0.6 basis points [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 increased by 188 billion yuan and 102.8 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 saw a decrease of 139 million yuan, and R007's transaction volume increased by 247.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with major banks lending well. The overnight pledged repo rates were reported at 1.28% to 1.43%, while 7-day pledged repo rates were around 1.45% to 1.47% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on October 16, there were 110 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 152.78 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, issuers are actively raising prices, leading to a lively trading atmosphere. The secondary market showed moderate trading sentiment, with overall yields slightly increasing [10] - The 1-month national bank stock ended at approximately 1.51%, while the 3-month and 6-month national bank stocks saw slight declines and increases, respectively, with the 1-year national bank stock yielding between 1.6675% and 1.6725% [10] Banking Sector Developments - Recent leadership changes were reported in several branches of the Bank of China, including the appointment of new branch heads in Henan, Shanghai, and Jiangxi provinces [12] - Jilin Bank's registered capital increased from approximately 13.14 billion yuan to about 13.81 billion yuan, alongside changes in several senior management positions [13]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 910 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan into the market [1][12] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the 7-day and 14-day rates declining [1][2] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with various rates for overnight and term deposits showing a downward trend [9][10] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months [12] Interest Rates - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 2.40 basis points to 1.4230%, and the 14-day Shibor decreased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4450% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates showed slight declines, with the weighted average rates for overnight and 7-day repos at 1.3141% and 1.4314%, respectively [4] Market Sentiment - The funding market is characterized by a generally loose atmosphere, with overnight rates for deposits showing a downward trend, indicating a preference for liquidity among banks [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 261.89 billion yuan on October 14, with trading sentiment described as moderate [10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 137.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan into the market on October 13, 2025 [1]. Market Rates Summary - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for the 7-day term increased by 4.40 basis points to 1.4470%, while the overnight Shibor remained unchanged at 1.3140% [1][2]. - The 14-day Shibor decreased by 1.60 basis points to 1.4660% [2]. Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates increased slightly, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.3 basis points and 4.0 basis points to 1.3131% and 1.357%, respectively [6]. - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 increased significantly, with DR001 seeing a rise of 2.652 billion yuan and R001 increasing by 43.681 billion yuan [6]. Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment was described as balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates for collateralized loans ranging from 1.35% to 1.5% [10]. - By the end of the trading day, the overnight rates dropped to around 1.28%, indicating a continued loose funding condition [10]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - On October 13, 66 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 48.59 billion yuan [11]. - The trading sentiment for secondary market certificates was described as subdued, with yields for various maturities showing slight increases compared to the previous trading day [11].