倒计时开始！ 奥特曼把「超级智能」实现的时间线拉到了2030年。 5年后，AI将全面超越人类。 几年后的某一天，一个名为GPT-8的系统，平静地告诉你，它攻克了量子引力——那个困扰了爱因斯坦之后所有物理学家的终极难题。 它不仅给出了答案，更能向你娓娓道来其思考过程、灵感来源，以及它为何决定研究这个课题。 这能算是AGI吗？ 在和量子计算教父David Deutsch的对谈中，奥特曼抛出这个问题。 David Deutsch也不得不承认，这将成为一个潜在的基准。 假设GPT-8能够解决量子引力问题，它将有资格成为真正的AGI。 倒计时开启，AI五年后超越人类 他在接受德国《世界报》采访时表示： 我可以肯定地说，到2030年底之前，如果我们没能开发出能够完成人类自身无法企及任务的超级智能模型，我会感到非常意外。 奥特曼 他还抛出了一个极具争议的新标准： 刚刚在柏林领取了声誉卓著的阿克塞尔·斯普林格奖，奥特曼紧接着就投下了一颗震撼弹。 在一次深度专访中，他给出了一个惊人预测：到2030年，人工智能将在所有维度上超越人类。 「超级智能何时会出现？」当被问及这个终极问题时，奥特曼的回答平静却极具颠覆性。 「在很多方面， ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's CEO, Wu Yongming, presented an optimistic vision for the future of artificial intelligence (AI) at the Yunqi Conference, emphasizing the inevitability of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as a starting point towards Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [1][3] Group 1: AI Development and Future Potential - Wu believes that AI will liberate human potential and usher society into an unprecedented intelligent era, with AGI aimed at freeing humans from 80% of daily tasks [3] - The pathway to ASI is divided into three stages: "intelligent emergence," "autonomous action," and "self-iteration," with a focus on acquiring comprehensive data from the physical world [3][4] - ASI is expected to solve significant scientific and engineering challenges at an exponential pace, potentially leading to breakthroughs in medicine, new materials, sustainable energy, and even interstellar travel [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Investments and Infrastructure - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI infrastructure, aiming to enhance data center energy efficiency by tenfold by 2032 [4][6] - The company positions itself as a "full-stack AI service provider," offering leading intelligent capabilities and a global AI cloud computing network [4][6] - Wu's announcement of substantial investment has invigorated the Chinese capital market, highlighting a shift in the competitive landscape of AI investment between China and the U.S. [6][8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Global Context - The article notes that U.S. tech giants have significantly outspent their Chinese counterparts in AI investments, with the top four U.S. companies investing 5.36 trillion RMB over the past five years compared to only 630 billion RMB from seven major Chinese internet firms [6] - Wu's vision aligns with other industry leaders like Ray Kurzweil and Sam Altman, who also foresee rapid advancements in AI leading to economic prosperity and enhanced human productivity [4][5] - The competition for establishing a few dominant AI cloud platforms is emphasized, with predictions that only 5-6 super cloud computing platforms will emerge globally [7][8]

Core Insights - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicts that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will arrive before 2030, claiming it will be "far smarter than humans" and referred to as "super AI" [1][3] - Altman believes that AI will take over 30-40% of jobs in the future, emphasizing that many jobs have already disappeared over the past 30 years, regardless of AI [3] - He suggests that individuals should learn "how to learn" and adapt to the changing world to avoid being replaced by AI [3] - Altman reassures that AGI will treat humanity kindly, although he acknowledges potential unforeseen consequences, asserting that humans have the opportunity to instill the right values in AGI [3] - He also mentions that he would not use ChatGPT for solving emotional issues [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud has launched seven new large model technology products, marking significant advancements in various fields such as language, speech, vision, multimodal, and coding capabilities [1][2] - The CEO of Alibaba Cloud, Wu Yongming, emphasized that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a certainty, positioning large models as the next-generation operating system [1][5] Product Launch and Features - The largest model released is Qwen3-Max, with a pre-training data volume of 36 trillion tokens and over one trillion parameters, excelling in coding and agent tool capabilities [2][3] - The new multimodal model, Wan2.5-preview, can generate videos from text and images, representing Alibaba's strongest visual generation model to date [2][3] Evolution and Integration - The transition from unimodal to multimodal systems is seen as an inevitable trend, with the introduction of the voice model Tongyi Bailin, which includes advanced speech recognition and synthesis capabilities [3][5] - The Tongyi model family now includes over 300 models covering various modalities, indicating a comprehensive approach to AI solutions [3][5] Competitive Positioning - Alibaba Cloud aims to be a full-stack AI service provider, integrating AI models, agent development, and AI infrastructure [5][6] - The company is positioned as a leading global player in both large models and cloud computing, emphasizing its unique competitive advantage [6] Strategic Direction - Alibaba Cloud is committed to a three-year investment plan of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, anticipating a tenfold increase in global data center energy consumption by 2032 [6] - The company is pursuing a "full-stack" technology strategy, contrasting with Tencent's "ecosystem integration" approach, highlighting different paths in the AI landscape [6]

AI下半场，AGI已成过去式，ASI正引领新智能革命！OpenAI推出的GDPval评估体系，通过真实工作任务审视大模型潜力，揭示AI如何从实验 室走向3万亿经济战场，助力人类从日常琐事中解放，拥抱创造性未来。 AI下半场真来了！ AGI都过时了，现在AI业内讨论的是超级人工智能ASI： AGI能把人类从80%的日常工作中解放出来； 而ASI则全面超越人类智能的系统。 刚刚，在a16z访谈中，OpenAI首席科学家Jakub Pachocki，透露OpenAI的研究路线图的下一步是推理，下一个5年的重点目标是打造自动化研究人员： AI自动发现新想法，自动化研究人员的工作，自动化机器学习研究。 但理解AI潜力最清晰的方式，并不是预测未来，而是看看模型现在已经能做什么。 历史经验告诉我们，从互联网到智能手机，每一项重大技术从诞生到普及都需要十年以上。 OpenAI希望以更透明的方式，展示大模型如何真正服务于现实世界。 因此，他们推出了一项全新的评估体系GDPval，在有据可依的基础上审视AI进步轨迹，而不是凭空臆测。 论文地址：https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/d5eb7428-c4e9-4a ...

一、核心战略：锚定超级人工智能（ASI）加码全球数据中心 阿里巴巴 CEO 吴泳铭在云栖大会上明确 ASI 发展路径，提出从互联网时代迈向 ASI 需经历三大阶段：第一阶段 "涌现智能"，AI 向人类学习；第二阶段 "AI 代理"，AI 辅助人类；第三阶段 "AI 自我提升"，AI 超越人类。为支撑这一转型，阿里巴巴制定两大关键举措： 9月24日，花旗发布关于阿里巴巴集团控股的研究报告，报告指出，阿里巴巴正推动AI革命由通用人工智能（AGI）向超级人工智能（ASI）转型。基于估 值模型，花旗维持阿里巴巴 "买入" 评级，美股目标价187美元、港股目标价183港元。 数据中心容量扩容：承诺在现有 3800 亿元人民币资本支出目标基础上进一步加大投入，到 2032 年将全球数据中心容量提升 10 倍，以满足 AI 基础设 施激增的需求； 把握全球 AI 投资红利：据吴泳铭披露，过去一年全球 AI 投资规模已超 4000 亿美元，预计未来五年将达 4 万亿美元，且全球最终仅会形成 5-6 家超级 云平台，阿里云作为全球领先全栈式 AI 服务提供商，有望抢占行业增量市场。 二、AI 与云深度融合：全栈产品矩阵升级落地 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the unveiling of Alibaba's ambitious vision for Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) at the 10th Yunqi Conference, showcasing a range of AI products and models aimed at achieving this goal [3][4][5] - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, outlined a three-phase roadmap to ASI: "intelligent emergence," "autonomous action," and "self-iteration," emphasizing that AGI is just the starting point [4][5] - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan over three years in AI infrastructure, with a tenfold increase in global data center energy consumption by 2032 compared to 2022 [5] Group 2 - The launch of seven significant AI models, referred to as "AI model nuclear bombs," covers various fields including language, vision, and programming, indicating a strategic shift towards a collaborative ecosystem of specialized models rather than a single super brain [6][7] - The flagship model, Qwen3-Max, boasts over one trillion parameters, showcasing advanced reasoning capabilities, while other models like Qwen3-VL and Qwen3-Omni demonstrate integrated visual and multimodal processing abilities [6][7] - The new ecosystem allows developers to leverage standardized capabilities without starting from scratch, aiming to create a prosperous AI environment that ultimately leads to the era of ASI [7]

Core Insights - Alibaba's AI strategy is gaining momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on becoming a leader in the AI era [1][4][5] - The company aims to develop a comprehensive AI ecosystem, integrating large models and cloud computing to create a new generation of computing platforms [2][3][4] - Capital markets have responded positively, with Alibaba's stock price rising significantly following announcements related to its AI initiatives [5][6] Investment and Financial Performance - Alibaba is investing 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with plans for further investments to support exponential growth in computing power by 2032 [1][3] - The latest financial report showed Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years, while overall net profit increased by 76% [1][4] - The company's market capitalization increased by nearly 300 billion HKD in a single day, reflecting investor confidence in its AI strategy [5] Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Alibaba Cloud has partnered with NVIDIA to enhance its Physical AI capabilities, integrating NVIDIA's software stack into its AI platform [2][4] - The launch of Qwen3-Max, described as the largest and most powerful model to date, positions Alibaba as a competitive player in the AI model landscape [6] Global Expansion and Market Position - Alibaba Cloud plans to expand its global infrastructure, establishing new cloud computing nodes in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, while also expanding data centers in several Asian countries [7] - The company aims to replicate its full-stack AI capabilities in international markets, positioning itself alongside Google as one of the few companies with comprehensive capabilities in AI, cloud computing, and large models [7]

"人们误以为数字技术只是工业时代的延续。实际上，数字技术带来的变革与1万年前开启的农业时代或 400年前开启的工业时代同样深远。这两次变革彻底重塑了人类的生活方式，而数字技术是人类的第三 次伟大飞跃。" 美国知名风险投资人、Union Square Ventures（USV）执行合伙人阿尔伯特·温格（Albert Wenger）近日 在北京接受21世纪经济报道记者独家专访时这样说。他表示，以人工智能引领的数字技术在带来巨大机 遇的同时，也给现有的经济与社会结构带来深刻挑战。 作为风险投资者，他常常被问到这样一个问题："下一个大趋势是什么？"在他看来，人们往往关注技术 而忽视了真正的变革。于是，他在《资本之后的世界》（《World After Capital》）中大胆地预言：人类 正在经历第三次非线性巨变——从工业时代迈向知识时代。 温格强调，工业时代向知识时代的转型已在进行中，并引发了巨大的动荡和不确定性。政府、企业与社 会必须共同思考如何利用技术——尤其是人工智能——构建一个更均衡、关注人类整体福祉的知识时 代。"当我们告别工业时代时，我们存在的意义将不再仅仅局限于拥有一份工作或进行无休止的物质消 费。反之 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's CEO Wu Yongming introduced the concept of Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) during the Cloud Summit, emphasizing a significant investment in AI infrastructure and a vision that extends beyond General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) [1][3]. Investment and Infrastructure - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan (approximately 53.5 billion USD) over three years to build AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to advancing AI technology [3][4]. - The global AI industry has seen over 400 billion USD in investments in the past year, with projections of cumulative investments exceeding 4 trillion USD over the next five years [3]. AI Development Stages - Wu outlined a three-stage roadmap to achieve ASI: intelligent emergence, autonomous action, and self-iteration, currently positioned in the second stage where AI assists humans [3][4]. - The company aims to create an AI ecosystem akin to Android, focusing on open-source development and building a next-generation AI cloud for global smart computing [4]. Market Position and Competition - Alibaba Cloud holds the leading market share in China and is recognized as one of the few companies capable of vertical integration in AI infrastructure and cloud computing [6][8]. - The company emphasizes its international strategy, aiming to compete globally while downplaying domestic rivals [6][7]. Technological Advancements - Alibaba Cloud released seven new AI models, including the Qwen3-Max, which boasts a pre-training data volume of 36 trillion tokens and over a trillion parameters, showcasing advanced coding and tool-calling capabilities [8][9]. - The performance of these models positions Alibaba among the top tier globally, with significant scores in various AI benchmarks [8][9]. Future Outlook - The industry is experiencing rapid investment and innovation, with no visible limits to the capabilities of AI models, indicating a competitive landscape where Alibaba is positioned to benefit significantly from AI advancements [9].