商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 9 日 鸡蛋：产业仍存抵抗情绪 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2507 | 2,859 | -0.63 | 69,678 | | 7,559 | | | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,709 | -0.32 | 6,762 | | 3,437 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋7-8价差 | | -694 | | -693 | | | | 鸡蛋7-9价差 | | -850 | | -837 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.90 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.58 | | 2.58 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.90 | | | | 湖北现货 ...

25年3-4月补栏量依旧较高，对应25年7-8月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力 增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。 6月5日全国鸡蛋生产环节平均库存0.94天，较前一天增0.02天；流通环节库存1.03天，较前一天持平。 消息面回顾： 周四，主产区鸡蛋均价为2.84元/斤，较前日持平，主销区鸡蛋均价为3.06元/斤，较前日持平。鸡蛋单 斤成本约3.5元，同比下降3.85%，窄幅震荡。 截至2025年6月6日当周，鸡蛋期货主力合约收于2859元/500千克，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 5300手。 本周（6月3日-6月6日）市场上看，鸡蛋期货周内开盘报2930元/500千克，最高触及2933元/500千克，最 低下探至2856元/500千克，周度涨跌幅达-2.46%。 机构观点汇总： 方正中期期货：基本面上，当前整体消费即将进入淡季，鸡蛋将会再次进入年度供强需弱，蛋价迎来季 节性次低点。2025年上半年蛋鸡产业周期可能继续下行，蛋价中期跌破养殖成本的概率仍然较高。操作 上，农产品整体氛围出现反复，拖累蛋价重心下移，鸡蛋期价绝对价格偏低，0 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货持续低位运行 期价维持偏弱震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋低位偏弱震荡，09合约收盘价为3709元/500千克，较前一周-48元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：随着节后鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新 开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受湿热天气影响，鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采 购谨慎，蛋价或持续处于同期偏低水平。不过，供应宽松的预期在盘面已有体现，期价估值总体 不高，如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性，对远期价 格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，现货价格持续处于低位，拖累期价总 体偏弱，不过，跌势有所放缓。 「 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7] - This week, the egg price fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3,757 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 5 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The firm corn spot price supports the egg cost, and there is restocking demand at low prices. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking also provides some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, the pressure of newly - opened production of previously replenished hens is large, and the egg supply is sufficient. Affected by hot and humid weather, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. If the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see [7] - Egg market: This week, the 09 contract of eggs fluctuated at a low level. The corn price supports the cost, and there is restocking demand and pre - festival stocking support. But the hen inventory is high, the supply is sufficient, the storage cost is high, and the downstream is cautious. Low spot prices may affect the hen inventory, and the low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated at a low level, with a position of 100,108 lots, an increase of 12,014 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,548, a slight decrease in net short position [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,916 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 32 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 22 yuan per ton [24] - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 222 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [28] - Related product prices: As of May 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.69 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan per kilogram [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] - Hen culling: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [45] - Feed raw materials: As of May 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,379.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,920 yuan per ton [49] - Feed price and profit: As of May 23, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.27 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.78 yuan per kilogram [56] - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.24 yuan per kilogram [60] - Egg exports: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons [65] 3.4 Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: Only the PE change chart is provided, no specific data [67]

Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Suggestion - Strategy suggestion: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [7] - Market review: This week, the egg price fluctuated slightly downward. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3762 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The firm spot price of corn supports the egg cost. The egg price is at a low level this year, and there is restocking demand at low prices. Pre - holiday stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival may provide some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished hens is large. The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. If the spot price remains low, it may boost the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the forward price. Pay attention to the impact of the spot price on the egg - laying hen inventory. The spot price has been low, dragging the futures price to oscillate weakly at a low level [8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated slightly downward, with a position of 88094 lots, an increase of 7908 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 4069, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 6681 [14] Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 3 [18] Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 2948 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 283 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 18 yuan per ton [24] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at 191 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a medium level in the same period [28] Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.67 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.2 yuan per kilogram [34] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was reported at 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] Culling Index and Age - As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was reported at 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [45] Feed Raw Material Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2374.51 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2940 yuan per ton [49] Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of May 16, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.16 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55] Egg Chicken and Culled Chicken Prices - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens was reported at 10.44 yuan per kilogram [60] Egg Export Volume - In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [65] Group 4: Representative Company Xiaoming Co., Ltd. - The report shows the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. [67]

Report Information - Report Date: May 22, 2025 [2] - Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the spot price has weakened again after a short - term rebound. The futures market is also showing a weak trend. The 07 contract has a relatively small decline, while the 08 contract is weaker. The near - month basis is at a normal level, with limited future drivers. The 08 contract is in a trend of squeezing out the premium and may show a slight decline in the short term. However, the 08 and 09 contracts are at historically low levels, and investors should wait for the梅雨 season expectations to be realized before entering the market [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Review**: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.12 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 07 contract rose 0.20%. The 2506 contract closed at 2838, down 27 or 0.94%; the 2507 contract closed at 2959, up 6 or 0.20%; the 2508 contract closed at 3581, down 29 or 0.80% [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The near - month basis is at a normal level in the same period of previous years, with limited future drivers. The 08 contract is in a trend of squeezing out the premium. In the short term, without holiday support, it may show a slight decline. But from an absolute price perspective, the 08 and 09 contracts are at historically low levels. Long - position investors should wait for the梅雨 season expectations to be realized before entering the market [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of April, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.329 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase compared to March and the same period in 2024, ranking third in the past eight years [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to May 16, the national chicken culling volumes were 18.56 million, 17.25 million, and 16.58 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and the absolute value is slightly higher than the previous two years. The average culling age as of May 15 was 534 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 2 days earlier than last month [9][10] 3.3数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the 06 contract, the basis of the 06 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread, with data sources from Wind,卓创资讯, and交易法门 [12][14][17]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏压力牵制下 期价维持低位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡微涨，09合约收盘价为3788元/500千克，较前一周+21元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑，且连续走低后，蛋价处于年内地位，市场逢低 有补货需求，且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑，现货价格有止跌回弹倾向。不过，目前蛋鸡存 栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足，供强需弱格局难改，或限 制其上涨空间。如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性， 对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，期价跌至前期低位后，总体 跌势放缓。 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 1、周度要点 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 12 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于增长的趋势之中，根据卓创资讯，截至 4 月末，全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿 ...

华联期货分析称，节后下游终端购买力度有所减弱，经销商多为规避风险拿货偏谨慎，库存压力再现， 蛋价承压下探。5月新开产蛋鸡多为2025年1月前后补栏鸡苗，此阶段临近春节，养殖单位补栏相对谨 慎，鸡苗销量环比微降，预计5月开产蛋鸡数量环比减少，但当前可淘汰老鸡不多，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 量依旧在高位运行，供应中期相对宽裕，市场观望情绪浓厚。06合约或延续区间宽幅震荡，压力位参考 3100，支撑位2900。期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 正信期货表示，基于鸡蛋基本面周期的分析，判断当前所处位置与2020年上半年的情况较为类似，在养 殖利润出现亏损导致产能出清之前，鸡蛋期货近弱远强格局有望延续。操作上，建议暂观望，等待反套 时机。 五矿期货指出，假期国内蛋价整体表现平稳，局部小幅下跌，黑山报价持平于2.9元/斤，馆陶落0.06元 至2.87元/斤，供应持续增多，5月份蛋价或依旧偏弱，当中节后有小幅补库需求或导致蛋价小涨，但供 应压制，且随着气温升高和需求回落，蛋价整体趋势或维持向下。假期鸡蛋走货尚可，但库存偏稳定， 价格持平或小落，整体新开产的压力大过需求备货的支撑，印证供应依旧主导当前蛋价，随着气温升高 和新开产压力的 ...