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大模型也有“不可能三角”,中国想保持优势还需解决几个难题
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-05-04 00:36
Core Insights - The rise of AI large models, particularly with the advent of ChatGPT, has sparked discussions about the potential of general artificial intelligence leading to a fourth industrial revolution, especially in the financial sector [1][2] - The narrative suggesting that the Western system, led by the US, will create a technological gap over China through its "algorithm + data + computing power" advantages is being challenged as more people recognize the potential and limitations of AI [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context and Development - The concept of artificial intelligence dates back to 1950 with Alan Turing's "Turing Test," establishing a theoretical foundation for AI [2] - The widespread public engagement with AI is marked by the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, indicating a significant shift in AI's development trajectory [2] Group 2: Current State of AI in Industry - The arrival of large models signifies a new phase in AI development, where traditional machine learning and deep learning techniques can work in tandem to empower manufacturing [4] - AI applications in the industrial sector are transitioning from isolated breakthroughs to system integration, aiming for deeper integration with various industrial systems [5] Group 3: AI's Impact on Manufacturing - AI can enhance productivity, efficiency, and resource allocation in the industrial sector, serving as a crucial engine for economic development [5] - The current landscape in China features a coexistence of large and small models, with small models primarily handling structured data and precise predictions, while large models excel in processing complex unstructured data [5][6] Group 4: Challenges in AI Implementation - AI's application in manufacturing is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on smaller models for specific tasks, while large models are yet to be fully integrated into production processes [8][9] - The industrial sector faces challenges such as high fragmentation of data, lack of standardized solutions, and the need for highly customized AI applications, which complicates the deployment of AI technologies [10][11] Group 5: Future Directions and Strategies - The goal is to achieve a collaborative system of large and small models, avoiding a singular focus on either, to explore the boundaries of AI capabilities and steadily advance application deployment [20][21] - A phased approach is recommended for AI integration in industry, starting with traditional small models in high-precision environments and gradually introducing large models in less critical applications [19][24] - The development of a robust evaluation system tailored to industrial applications is essential for assessing the performance of AI models in real-world settings [19][26]
人工智能,如何影响芯片
半导体行业观察· 2025-05-03 02:05
Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has experienced significant changes in profitability and growth dynamics, with economic profits rising from $38 billion in 2000-2009 to $450 billion in 2010-2019, and projected to reach between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion by 2040 [1][2] - The demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology is driving substantial investment and demand in the sector, but the resulting profits are increasingly concentrated among a few key suppliers and distributors [1][2] - By 2024, the top 5% of companies in the semiconductor industry are expected to generate all economic profits, while the remaining 95% will see a sharp decline in economic value creation [1][2] Industry Recovery and Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is perceived to be recovering from a downturn between 2022 and 2024, but a deeper analysis reveals that recovery is uneven and slower than anticipated for most companies [2][12] - The expansion of the Chinese semiconductor market is putting pressure on global market shares, necessitating companies to leverage AI-driven opportunities and expand into adjacent fields [2][18] Economic Profit Trends - Economic profits in the semiconductor industry have shown strong growth, with the industry moving from 15th place in economic profit margin rankings in 2000-2004 to 3rd place in 2020-2024 [3][6] - The total economic profit generated from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be $473 billion, surpassing the profits of the previous decade [3][6] Value Creation Disparity - There is a stark disparity in value creation within the industry, with the top 5% of companies generating $121 billion and $159 billion in economic value in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while the bottom 5% are expected to incur losses of $45 billion to $70 billion [6][9] - By 2024, the top 5% of companies are projected to create $147 billion in economic profits, while the middle 90% will only generate $5 billion, and the bottom 5% will face losses of $37 billion [6][9] Inventory and Revenue Trends - Inventory levels have been a significant concern, with the ratio of inventory to next-quarter revenue rising sharply during downturns, indicating that the industry has not fully recovered [15][12] - As of 2022, inventory levels for suppliers and distributors reached 75%, while manufacturers saw levels rise to 49%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the recovery process [15][12] Chinese Market Influence - The share of revenue from the Chinese market for semiconductor companies has increased significantly, from 6% in 2010 to a projected 38% in 2024 [18][22] - Despite challenges such as U.S. sanctions on Huawei, the overall growth rate of the Chinese semiconductor industry remains robust, with an expected annual growth rate of 9% [22][23] Future Growth Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% from 2019 to 2023, driven by AI applications, while the overall industry CAGR is projected at 6% [24][27] - By 2030, the semiconductor industry's revenue could reach $1 trillion, with an additional $300 billion from generative AI, highlighting the potential for accelerated growth [24][27] Strategic Actions Required - To achieve comprehensive recovery and growth, companies must rethink their business models, explore new growth opportunities, and enhance their operational efficiency through AI [27][28] - The industry must also address talent shortages and leverage AI to improve productivity and innovation, ensuring resilience against geopolitical and supply chain challenges [28][27]
全网都在等梁文锋
凤凰网财经· 2025-04-29 12:39
以下文章来源于凤凰网科技 ,作者凤凰网科技 凤凰网科技 . 凤凰科技频道官方账号,带你直击真相。 来源|凤凰网科技 作者|姜凡 编辑|董雨晴 五月将至,中美科技巨头或将迎来新一轮巅峰对决。 先是在4月中旬,OpenAI一口气发布了GPT-4.1 o3、o4 mini系列模型;谷歌则拿出了Gemini 2.5 Flash Preview,一个混合推理模型;与谷歌同 一天,豆包在杭州巡展中正式发布了1.5·深度思考模型,在多模态上展现出了更强的实力。凤凰网科技从行业人士处了解到,阿里的下一代大模型 Qwen3也将于本月内发布。 混战之下,那股"神秘的东方力量"似乎也在悄悄准备着新的发布。 敏感的神经之下,一点蛛丝马迹都会被放大。 昨日,全球最大AI开源社区Hugging Face首席执行官Clément Delangue在社交平台发布了一条耐人 寻味的动态。这条动态仅由三个眼睛的表情符号构成,并附上了DeepSeek团队在Hugging Face平台的官方资源库入口。 这组充满悬念的组合引发科技圈热议,业内普遍推测DeepSeek R2模型已进入发布倒计时。 01 DeepSeek R2发布已进入倒计时? 近半个 ...
全网都在等梁文锋
投中网· 2025-04-29 06:21
凤凰科技频道官方账号,带你直击真相。 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于凤凰网科技 ,作者凤凰网科技 凤凰网科技 . DeepSeek R2模型要来了? 作者丨 姜凡 编辑丨 董雨晴 来源丨 凤凰网科技 五月将至,中美科技巨头或将迎来新一轮巅峰对决。 先是在4月中旬,OpenAI一口气发布了GPT-4.1 o3、o4 mini系列模型;谷歌则拿出了Gemini 2.5 Flash Preview,一个混合推理模型;与谷歌同一天,豆包在杭州巡展中正式发布了1.5·深度思 考模型,在多模态上展现出了更强的实力。凤凰网科技从行业人士处了解到,阿里的下一代大模型 Qwen3也将于本月内发布。 混战之下,那股"神秘的东方力量"似乎也在悄悄准备着新的发布。 敏感的神经之下,一点蛛丝马迹都会被放大。 昨日,全球最大AI开源社区Hugging Face首席执行 官Clément Delangue在社交平台发布了一条耐人寻味的动态。这条动态仅由三个眼睛的表情符号构 成,并附上了DeepSeek团队在Hugging Face平台的官方资源库入口。 这组充满悬念的组合引发科技圈热议,业内普遍推测DeepS ...
探索新时代就业工作新机制新路径
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-28 22:24
就业是最基本的民生,牵动着千家万户的生活,也关系着经济社会发展大局。党的十八大以来,习近平 总书记围绕就业工作作出了一系列重要论述,科学阐释就业的重要意义,系统回答事关就业的一系列方 向性、根本性、全局性问题,为促进高质量充分就业提供了战略指引和行动指南。习近平总书记强调, 促进高质量充分就业,是新时代新征程就业工作的新定位、新使命。眼下,我国面临着经济增长、人口 结构、技术变革等诸多方面的新形势新变化,必须把稳就业摆在更加突出位置,丰富高质量充分就业的 内涵,探索新机制新路径,不断增强广大劳动者的获得感幸福感安全感,为推进中国式现代化提供有力 支撑。 聚焦新形势新变化 我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期,经济短期与长期因素交织、国 内与国外因素缠绕,人口结构与规模因素联动,技术替代与创造因素交错,就业客观与主观因素互动, 呈现出复杂多元、动态多变的新特点新变化,形成了促进高质量充分就业的新条件新形势。 先看经济增长。短期经济增长压力加大是首先要面对的问题。眼下,我国国内有效需求不足,部分企业 生产经营困难,风险隐患较多,经济运行面临不少困难和挑战,而世界百年未有之大变局加速演进, ...
全网都在等梁文锋
虎嗅APP· 2025-04-28 13:35
以下文章来源于凤凰网科技 ,作者凤凰网科技 凤凰网科技 . 凤凰科技频道官方账号,带你直击真相。 本文来自微信公众号: 凤凰网科技 (ID:ifeng_tech) ,作者:姜凡,编辑:董雨晴,题图来自:视觉中国 五月将至,中美科技巨头或将迎来新一轮巅峰对决。 先是在4月中旬,OpenAI一口气发布了GPT-4.1 o3、o4 mini系列模型;谷歌则拿出了Gemini 2.5 Flash Preview,一个混合推理模型;与谷歌同一天,豆 包在杭州巡展中正式发布了1.5·深度思考模型,在多模态上展现出了更强的实力。凤凰网科技从行业人士处了解到,阿里的下一代大模型Qwen3也将 于本月内发布。 混战之下,那股"神秘的东方力量"似乎也在悄悄准备着新的发布。 敏感的神经之下,一点蛛丝马迹都会被放大。昨日,全球最大AI开源社区Hugging Face首席执行官Clément Delangue在社交平台发布了一条耐人寻味 的动态。这条动态仅由三个眼睛的表情符号构成,并附上了DeepSeek团队在Hugging Face平台的官方资源库入口。 一、DeepSeek R2发布已进入倒计 时? 近半个月来,有关"DeepSe ...
科技股狂欢背后的高盛预警:美股涨势难掩估值与政策双重隐忧
智通财经网· 2025-04-28 00:49
动荡的每日新闻 帕斯夸里耶洛指出,日常新闻流仍然高度波动,市场对中美关系和美联储政策的信号反应强烈。他表 示,最近的事态发展处于"二阶导数"阶段,贸易政策倾向鹰派,但避免了极端结果。 在一片嘈杂声中,技术指标已变得更加积极。"两个月来首次,技术因素净转为正面,"他写道,并指出 无论是自主交易基金还是系统基金在上周转向买入之前都"基本上已清仓"。 纯多头投资者的持续抛售压力似乎也已暂停,因为他们买入了英伟达和Meta Platforms等大型科技公司 的股票。 不过,在基本面方面,帕斯夸里耶洛表示他仍然保持谨慎:"目前,市场参与者的主要工作是权衡局势 降级的概率与经济衰退的概率。除非在关税问题上全面缓和,否则还需要一段时间才能对美国经济增长 的真实轨迹有信心。" 智通财经APP注意到,截至4月25日当周,美国股市在大盘科技股熟悉的涨势推动下大幅走高。但高盛 对冲基金业务全球主管托尼•帕斯夸里耶洛表示,投资者应准备好迎接持续的波动,因为市场正处于 2025年交易区间的正中间。 帕斯夸里耶洛在4月26日的一份客户报告中写道,标准普尔500指数目前较特朗普总统所称"解放日"之后 的抛售完全回撤不到3%,以VIX指数衡 ...
上市遇挫急转弯:蚂蚁金服聚焦AI,这次真能弯道超车?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 15:37
Core Viewpoint - Ant Group is expected to restart its IPO process by the end of 2024 or early 2025, following significant regulatory approvals and internal leadership changes, although uncertainties remain regarding its successful execution [1][4]. Group 1: IPO and Regulatory Environment - Ant Group's IPO was initially halted in 2020 due to regulatory changes, leading to a three-year rectification period [2][3]. - The company has obtained several key business licenses, including for digital RMB pilot participation, indicating regulatory trust and paving the way for its IPO [1][4]. - The appointment of a new CEO with investment banking experience suggests preparations for the IPO, aligning with the timeline for A-share listing requirements [1][4]. Group 2: Market Competition and Challenges - The delay in Ant Group's IPO has allowed new fintech companies to emerge, increasing competition in the market, particularly from WeChat Pay in the payment sector and traditional banks in credit services [4][9]. - Regulatory pressures remain significant, with stricter standards for the fintech industry, necessitating ongoing compliance efforts from Ant Group [4][5]. Group 3: Business Transformation and Innovation - Ant Group has undertaken major adjustments to its traditional business lines, focusing on risk management and optimizing user credit mechanisms for products like Huabei and Jiebei [5][6]. - The company is heavily investing in AI, establishing a dedicated department for AI innovation, and launching various AI applications aimed at enhancing consumer and financial services [6][8]. - Ant Group's strategy includes building an ecosystem in the AI field through investments in multiple AI companies, indicating a commitment to innovation despite regulatory challenges [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - The AI strategy is viewed as a critical component for Ant Group's future, with ambitions to reshape consumer experiences and enhance data services in the B2B sector [8][9]. - Despite the potential of its AI initiatives, Ant Group faces challenges such as technological limitations, market competition, and regulatory scrutiny that could impact its success in the AI domain [9].
AI教父站到了OpenAI对立面
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-27 12:41
出品|虎嗅科技组 作者|孙晓晨 编辑|苗正卿 头图|视觉中国 日前,一封公开信拦在了OpenAI的重组之路上。该公开信由诺奖得主、AI教父Geoffrey Hinton联合10名前OpenAI员工及其他业内人士共同发表,要求停止 OpenAI的重组计划。 公开信指出,OpenAI进行重组的公开解释并不充分。尽管OpenAI一再强调谋求竞争优势的必要性,但是反对者们依然认为竞争优势不是充分的理由。此 外,OpenAI并没有解释为什么需要取消非营利组织的控制权,而非营利组织可能因失去控制权而一无所获。 为此,反对者们在公开信中向总检察长Bonta和Jennings呼吁,要求OpenAI回答基本问题,并通过确保非营利组织保留控制权来保护慈善信托和目标。 OpenAI的这场重组计划酝酿多时,2024年底,其发布公告表示,公司结构即将重组。据其公告显示,OpenAI在未来将继续保持非营利性组织和营利性组织 兼而有之的状态,现有的营利性组织将转变为特拉华州公共利益企业(PBC),非营利组织在现有营利性组织中的重大权益将以PBC的股票形式出现。 但是,面对着诸多质疑和阻碍,这场重组计划的推进并不顺利。 就在今年3月底,Op ...
7x24小时非人类科学家入场:当AI开始自主探索科学未知领域 | 多伦多大学
量子位· 2025-04-27 08:19
universea 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 自主通才科学家(AGS)正成为现实! 来自多伦多大学、IIT、清华大学、浙江大学、罗格斯大学、哈佛大学、佐治亚理工学院和伦敦大学学院的跨学科团队的最新研究指出,融合 人工智能与机器人技术的"自主通才科学家(AGS)"不仅能独立完成从文献综述到实验验证的全流程,更可能以指数级速度推动科学发现,突 破人类能力的物理与认知边界。 除此之外,其团队还构建了将AI大脑与机器人躯体深度融合的通用科研系统概念框架,展示了机器人与AI科学家在自然科学、形式科学、应用 科学、人文科学,以及跨学科科学等全科学领域的原创性发现的潜力。 超级智能的曙光:AI与机器人科学家引领科研新时代 相比AI在工业生产或家庭生活中替代人类劳动,其在科学发现中的应用更能体现通用人工智能的真正价值——引领并超越人类水平的科研成 果,或许正是衡量超级智能的关键标准。 机器人与AI科学家正携手突破科学的边界,迎来一个全新的扩展定律(Scaling Laws),开启一个自主科学探索的新时代。 一、当AI大脑邂逅机器人躯体:通才自主科学家的诞生 自主通才科学家(AGS)正成为现实,这种系统将AI的智 ...