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茅台“基金铁粉”转战泡泡玛特,茅台没有泡泡玛特香?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 23:13
Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai, a benchmark in the Chinese stock market, has seen a shift in investor focus towards Pop Mart, known as "plastic Moutai," as fund managers reduce their holdings in Moutai and increase their investments in Pop Mart due to its significant stock price growth and appeal to younger consumers [1][3][11]. Group 1: Guizhou Moutai's Performance - Moutai's stock price was 2465.23 yuan in 2021, with a market capitalization of 3.1 trillion yuan, which remains unmatched [1]. - The stock price has shown a decline from 1524 yuan on January 2, 2025, to 1509.96 yuan on June 4, 2025, indicating a decrease of 1% [11]. - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed, with targets for 2025 set at only 9% growth, marking the first time in nine years that the annual growth target has been reduced to single digits [14]. Group 2: Pop Mart's Rise - Pop Mart's stock price increased from 9.8 HKD in October 2022 to 246 HKD by June 2025, representing a more than 20-fold increase [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 106.92%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan, up 188.77% [12][13]. - The number of funds holding Pop Mart increased from 13 at the end of 2023 to 207 by the end of the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growing institutional interest [8]. Group 3: Fund Manager Behavior - Notable fund managers, including those from Southern Fund and Huatai PineBridge, have shifted their focus from Moutai to Pop Mart, with significant reductions in Moutai holdings [3][11]. - Fund managers are increasingly attracted to Pop Mart's innovative business model, which appeals to younger consumers seeking new experiences and social currency [11][12]. - The shift in investment strategy is linked to the changing consumption patterns of Generation Z, who favor novelty and emotional engagement over traditional brand loyalty [11][12]. Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The overall market for traditional consumer goods, including Moutai, is experiencing a slowdown, with many investors seeking opportunities in new consumption models [11]. - Pop Mart's membership repurchase rate has declined from 58% in 2019 to 49.4% in 2024, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [9][12]. - Moutai's recent cross-industry investments, including in AI technology, indicate a strategic shift to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [14][18].
新消费暗藏杀局,90%散户正在被套!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 19:34
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in the A-share market's consumer sector, particularly in new consumption stocks, is driven by deeper underlying logic and changing consumer behavior [1][2][3] - The rise of new consumption is seen as a response to the complex global trade environment and pressure on exports, making domestic demand and consumption crucial for economic growth [2][3] - Policies like "trade-in for new" have effectively stimulated market vitality, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and value rather than brand premium [3][4] Group 2 - Retail investors face challenges in the new consumption sector, as many are following trends without proper analysis, leading to significant losses [8] - The presence of pseudo-leaders in the market, which are stocks that merely ride on concepts without institutional backing, creates volatility and risks for retail investors [8][10] - Understanding institutional trading behaviors and data is essential for avoiding pitfalls and making informed investment decisions [10][15] Group 3 - Data analysis is emphasized as a more reliable method for understanding market dynamics compared to superficial stock price movements [16][18] - The importance of monitoring institutional activity is highlighted, as stocks with active institutional participation are more likely to rebound even after short-term declines [11][15] - Investors are encouraged to focus on data rather than price fluctuations to uncover the true market situation and avoid being misled by market sentiment [16][18]
经济周刊·焦点|差异化创新 新消费黑马异军突起
Guang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-06-05 16:27
Core Viewpoint - A new wave of consumer brands is emerging, achieving significant growth and market presence, while traditional brands are struggling. Notable companies like Pop Mart, Mixue Group, and Laopu Gold have seen their market values exceed HKD 100 billion, with stock prices rising over 100% annually, leading trends in IP toys, affordable tea drinks, and traditional gold products [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - New consumer brands are experiencing unprecedented demand, with products often selling out quickly, exemplified by the popularity of Pop Mart's LABUBU toys and long queues at Laopu Gold stores [3][5]. - Mixue Ice City has rapidly expanded, boasting over 40,000 global stores and achieving retail sales of CNY 58.3 billion in a year, highlighting its success in the beverage market [5][11]. Group 2: Differentiation and Value Proposition - The success of these new brands is attributed to differentiation, emotional value, and high cost-performance ratios, allowing them to stand out in a competitive market [2][7]. - Laopu Gold has successfully positioned itself as a luxury brand through unique designs and craftsmanship, contrasting with traditional gold retailers that rely on real-time pricing [7][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Consumers are increasingly purchasing products for their emotional value and identity connection rather than just functionality, as seen with Pop Mart's LABUBU toys [9][11]. - The traditional liquor market is facing stagnation, with only a few brands like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu showing double-digit growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards new brands [8][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The traditional consumer market is losing its growth advantages, while new consumer brands are gaining value premiums through innovation and brand differentiation [14][15]. - New consumer brands must navigate challenges to avoid being short-lived, focusing on sustainable growth and deep consumer insights to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing market [15][16].
老铺黄金、泡泡玛特、毛戈平,“新新消费势力”在港股享受高估值溢价
第一财经· 2025-06-05 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The "new consumption forces" in the Hong Kong stock market have experienced a collective pullback after a period of exuberance, influenced by profit-taking ahead of the "618" shopping festival, a wave of stock unlocks, and valuation discrepancies with A-share counterparts [1][3][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 5, notable declines were observed in stocks such as Lao Pu Gold (down over 9%), Mixue Group (down over 7.7%), and Maogeping (down over 6.6%) [2]. - Despite the recent pullback, the valuation of these "new consumption stocks" remains significantly higher than their A-share peers, with Lao Pu Gold's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 107.9 times, compared to 15.96 times for its A-share competitor Lao Fengxiang [1][9]. - Year-to-date performance shows substantial gains for these stocks, with Lao Pu Gold up 315%, Mixue Group up 112.24%, and Pop Mart up 175.53% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Valuation - The high valuations of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" are attributed to several key factors, including concentrated shareholding structures that create a "scarcity effect" [15]. - For instance, Lao Pu Gold's major shareholders control approximately 92.99% of the company's shares, while Mixue Group's founders hold over 80% [15]. - The ability of these companies to reconstruct the young consumer ecosystem is also a significant factor, as they focus on emotional value and experiential marketing [15][16]. Group 3: Comparison with A-share Peers - The PE ratios of Hong Kong's leading consumption stocks are markedly higher than those of their A-share counterparts, with Maogeping's PE at 65.72 times compared to 21.6 times for its A-share competitor Perlay [10]. - Despite lower valuations, A-share companies like Perlay have higher revenue and net profit figures, indicating a divergence in performance metrics [11][12]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" could have a demonstrative effect on A-share markets, potentially leading to a shift in consumer focus from traditional to new consumption categories [17]. - The ongoing valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index PE at approximately 20.17 times, indicates a positive trend for these stocks [16]. - However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain, as the business models of these companies have yet to be fully validated in the market [18].
北水动向|北水成交净买入7.41亿 北水逢低加仓新消费概念 继续抢筹美团(03690)超10亿港元
智通财经网· 2025-06-05 10:08
智通财经APP获悉,6月5日港股市场,北水成交净买入7.41亿港元,其中港股通(沪)成交净买入24.29亿 港元,港股通(深)成交净卖出16.88亿港元。 | 思摩尔国际 HK 06969 | 4.94亿 | 4.73亿 | 9.671乙 +2079.41万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信达生物 HK 01801 | 4.18亿 | 4.67亿 | 8.85亿 -4891.98万 | | 老铺黄金 | 5.54亿 | 3.18亿 | 8.72亿 | | HK 06181 | | | +2.37亿 | 港股通(深)活跃成交股 美团-W(03690)获净买入10.75亿港元。消息面上,美团闪购此前发布618首周战报,5月28日至6月1日, 新客大幅增长,95后占比近6成,带动品牌、商家高速增长,超50个品类商品成交额相比去年同期增长 超过1倍,超过800家品牌商、零售商成交额增长翻倍。东方证券认为,随着闪购品牌在消费者心智中的 渗透和犟化,30分钟达的闪购场域将为用户零售需求带来有效补充,推动行业大盘增长。 北水净买入最多的个股是美团-W(03690)、比亚迪股份(01211)、老 ...
最高涨近90%!私募5月调研约500家A股公司!超20家新消费公司在列
私募排排网· 2025-06-05 09:45
5月,A股市场整体呈现震荡修复的走势,其中上证指数、创业板指月内累涨超2%,深证成指涨 超1%。其中,创新药、算力、新消费等多个板块随着热点的出现快速轮动,但缺乏明显主线。 私募排排网对 Choice的整理的数据显示,在5月调研的私募494家A股公司中,上涨的公司达到 325家,占比65.79%。从机构角度来看,5月参与调研的私募公司共有876家,调研次数合计2544 次。 那么,5月私募都集中调研了哪些板块和公司呢?又有哪些公司涨幅居前呢? 0 1 化学制药、医疗器械均被调研超 100 次! 25 家公司调研次数超 20 次 从调研次数来看,板块方面,半导体等10个板块调研次数位居前10。其中,半导体、医疗器械、 通用设备、自动化设备、专用设备、化学制药6个板块调研次数在100次以上。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 (点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ) | 排序 | 所属行业(二级) | 被调研A股数量(只) | 被调研次数(次) | 平均涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 半导体 | 30 | 226 | -4.65 | | 2 | 医疗器械 | 20 | ...
超2600只个股上涨
第一财经· 2025-06-05 08:11
全市场个股涨多跌少,超2600只股票上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.29万亿元。 2025.06. 05 本文字数:629,阅读时长大约2分钟 6月5日,A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘,沪指涨0.23%,深成指涨0.58%,创业板指涨 1.17%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3384.10 c | 7.90 | 0.23% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10203.50 c | 58.92 | 0.58% | | 899050 | 非证50 | 1434.63 c | -4.11 | -0.29% | | 881001 | 万得全A | 5158.55 c | 21.60 | 0.42% | | 000688 | 科创20 | 996.41 c | 10.30 | 1.04% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2048.61 c | 23.68 | 1.17% | 盘面上看,通信服务、足球概念、消费电子、算力板块涨幅居前,养殖业、中药、银行板块走低。 具体来看,消费电子 ...
刚刚!泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团,新消费三宝突然跳水!到底有没有泡沫?股民吵起来了...
雪球· 2025-06-05 07:45
A股方面,医药股集体调整;苏超持续火爆,金陵体育收获3个20%涨停,共创草坪4连板;兵装重组概念涨幅位居两市第一,建设工业、东安动力 涨停。 港股新消费三宝,泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团集体跳水。 截至收盘 , 沪指涨0.23% , 深成指涨0.58% , 创业板指涨1.17% ,全市场成交额13170亿元 , 较上日放量1395亿元 。 全市场2600只个股 上涨。 01 新消费三宝 集体跳水 港股新消费迎来大跌,老铺黄金跳水,蜜雪集团杀跌,泡泡玛特亦在创下新高之后快速回落。截至发稿,老铺黄金跌9%,蜜雪集团跌7%,泡泡玛 特跌1%。 近期,新消费涨幅巨大,此前老铺黄金涨幅已达23倍,泡泡玛特过去两年半时间从每股8.6港元附近飙升到256港元,今年以来涨幅惊人。一时 间,新消费取代茅台的声音不绝于耳。然而,从估值来看,泡泡玛特的市盈率(TTM)已达96倍,老铺黄金更达99倍,蜜雪集团亦达46倍,实属 不低。 这次,这些股票杀跌,其实也有流动性的原因。近期,市场虽然不断上行,但成交量并没有有效放大。这意味着,其中存量博弈的成分还是比较 高。建银国际研究报告指出,香港市场流动性指数过去一个月下滑,支持指数的是更 ...
绷不住了!马斯克炮轰特朗普
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 07:22
Group 1: New Consumption Sector Performance - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has seen significant volatility, with stocks like Laopuhuangjin, Maogeping, and Mixue Group experiencing declines of over 9%, 8%, and 7% respectively [1] - The "four flowers of Hong Kong stocks" including Pop Mart, Mixue Ice City, Laopuhuangjin, and Maogeping reached a combined market capitalization of 798.2 billion HKD as of June 4 [1] - Year-to-date stock performance shows Pop Mart with a rise of 174.4%, Mixue Group at 134.9% since its listing on March 3, Laopuhuangjin at 324.2%, and Maogeping at 127.4% [3] Group 2: U.S. Market and Economic Policies - Elon Musk has publicly criticized Trump's tax reform, urging Americans to oppose it, as it could negatively impact the electric vehicle industry, particularly Tesla [5] - The "Beautiful Tax Law" proposed by Trump includes a clause that imposes a 20% additional tax on foreign investors, which may deter investment in U.S. assets and shift capital to Europe [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the trend of investors withdrawing from U.S. assets could lead to a capital inflow of 1.2 trillion euros (approximately 1.4 trillion USD) into European stock markets over the next five years [9] Group 3: Hedge Fund Activity - Following a significant market downturn in April, hedge funds have begun to re-enter the market as stock prices recover [6] - In May, U.S. stocks recorded their largest monthly gain in nearly 30 years, with hedge funds increasing their positions in global equities at the fastest pace in six months [7] - European stock markets have gained attention, with eight out of the ten best-performing markets globally being from Europe, driven by a shift in investor sentiment [8] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - In May, A-share new account openings totaled 1.5556 million, a decrease of 19.16% month-on-month but a 23% increase year-on-year [11] - The trend in new account openings reflects market sentiment, with a recovery observed in the A-share market supported by institutional investments [12] - The monthly data indicates that new account openings are correlated with market performance, showing a general upward trend compared to the previous year [16]
“港股三姐妹”,齐创新高!基金经理重构消费投资逻辑
天天基金网· 2025-06-05 05:11
上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 , 优选消费基金10元起投!限量发放!先到先得! 潮玩盲盒、黄金珠宝、量贩零食、宠物经济……2025年以来,一场由新消费引领的资本狂欢正在港股市场 上演。 6月4日,泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、老铺黄金3家港股新消费企业再度大涨,股价齐创新高,总市值合计突破7300 亿港元,被市场冠以港股"新消费三姐妹"的称号,并带动A股、港股消费板块集体上行。 当新消费点燃资本市场,越来越多消费基金经理正在重构自己的消费股投资逻辑。如何衡量情绪价值,进而合 理定价?如何评估新商业模式,从而理性预期?如何洞察新客群的真正需求,从而预测市场空间?这些都是新 消费投资的难点,却也是其迷人之处。 "港股三姐妹"齐创新高 6月4日,大消费板块再度爆发,被市场称为港股"新消费三姐妹"的蜜雪集团、泡泡玛特、老铺黄金在盘中再创 历史新高。 其中, 泡泡玛特 当天大涨5.13%,盘中最高触及248.8港元/股,市值突破3300亿港元大关,年内涨幅超170%。 拉长周期来看,泡泡玛特已完成自己的20倍之旅。在2022年四季度,泡泡玛特股价最低只有不到10港元/股, 而截至2025年6月4日,其最新 ...