地缘政治风险持续升温推高避险资产需求、美联储接连降息，叠加发达经济体通胀担忧与债务负担高企 引发的货币贬值交易，共同助推贵金属本轮火爆涨势，黄金、白银双双迎来 1979 年以来表现最佳的一 年。 作为体量更大的贵金属品种，多重利好推动散户投资者与机构基金经理大举涌入黄金 ETF，各国央行 也延续了长达数年的黄金增持潮。 过去 12 个月，黄金涨幅约 64%。9 月，金价突破45 年来经通胀调整后的历史峰值—— 上一轮峰值出现 在美元承压、通胀飙升、经济衰退初现的时期，彼时金价触及 850 美元 / 盎司；而本轮牛市中，金价于 10 月初一举站上 4000 美元整数关口。 专题：2025年国际财经新闻大盘点 2025 年最后一个交易日，黄金、白银价格走低，但贵金属全年行情收官亮眼，二者均将创下四十年来 最大年度涨幅。 现货黄金小幅回落至每盎司 4320 美元下方，白银则跌至 70 美元关口附近。节后交投清淡的市场中，两 大贵金属价格波动剧烈：周一暴跌，周二反弹，周三再度走低。此番大幅震荡，促使交易所运营商芝商 所（CME Group）两度上调保证金要求。 世界黄金协会首席策略师、资深市场人士约翰・里德表示：'从 ...

基本面： 周三（12月31日周三（12月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4336.95美元/盎司。这反映出市场对避险资产的持续需求与美元走强之间的拉 锯。然而，纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。这一现象不仅源于美联储的货币政策调整，还受到央行购 金、资金流入以及国际热点事件的综合影响。金价近期波动：反弹强劲却尾盘回吐，逢低买盘成关键支撑进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的过山车行 情。周一，现货黄金从上周五创下的历史高点4549.71美元/盎司大幅回落，最低触及4303美元附近，创下自10月21日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。这一回落 主要源于获利了结的压力，投资者在连续上涨后选择锁定利润，导致市场短期调整。然而，这种下跌迅速吸引了逢低买盘的介入，推动黄金在周二展开强劲 反弹。现货黄金一度上涨1.64%，触及4404美元/盎司附近，显示出市场对黄金避险属性的持续认可。避险买盘的涌入，进一步强化了这一反弹势头，因为投 资者重新关注全球地缘政治和经济风险，将黄金视为安全的港湾。 ----操作策略----- 黄金图表： ---趋势判断---- 目前黄金行情为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 witnessed a historic bull market in gold, with international gold prices surging over 70% during the year, driven by multiple global economic challenges and a significant shift in global development confidence [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2025, gold prices reached unprecedented levels, with both futures and spot gold nearing $4,600 per ounce by year-end, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [2]. - The upward trend in gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with significant annual gains exceeding 25% in 2020 and 2024 [2]. - By March 2025, gold prices surpassed $3,000, and by October, they exceeded $4,000, culminating in a record high near $4,600 by the end of the year [2]. Economic Context - The surge in gold prices reflects heightened global risk aversion and a lack of economic confidence, despite forecasts indicating that global economic growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are not expected to slow significantly [3]. - Major risks to the global economy stem from the U.S.-initiated trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]. - Key factors include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. government's trade wars, which have collectively heightened market demand for gold as a hedge against risk [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by the U.S. government's debt issues and aggressive monetary policies, has been a significant driver of gold price increases [4]. Central Bank Actions - In response to dollar credit risks, central banks worldwide have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [5]. - By 2024, gold accounted for 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro's 16%, with net purchases of gold by central banks exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, setting a historical record [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts since September 2024 have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [5]. Historical Perspective - Historically, gold has served as a traditional safe-haven asset, gaining investor favor during times of turmoil [7]. - The relationship between gold prices and economic cycles indicates that during economic downturns or crises, investors tend to flock to gold for preservation of value, leading to price increases [7][8]. - The current surge in gold prices is seen as part of a broader trend reflecting complex global dynamics and the potential for gold to become a long-term asset rather than merely a cyclical hedge [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].

全球央行的持续买入也为金价提供了坚实支撑。数据显示，各国央行已连续数月成为黄金的净买家。10 月(最新可得数据)央行共增持53吨黄金，大规模买盘在一定程度上收紧了市场可流通供给，推高了整体 价格。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金和白银价格即将在2025年录得自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。在年初走势相对 平稳后，贵金属价格于4月下旬明显加速上涨，其背景是特朗普政府推出的全球关税政策引发市场震 荡，加剧了投资者对贸易前景和美元地位的担忧。 数据显示，2025年黄金价格累计上涨接近70%，白银今年以来涨幅已超过160%，其中仅12月单月就上 涨逾30%。市场普遍认为，特朗普政府贸易政策的不确定性，可能削弱美元在全球的吸引力，从而推动 资金流向被视为"避险资产"的贵金属。 与贵金属形成鲜明对比的是美元走势。2025年以来，美元相对欧元、日元等一篮子主要货币累计下跌逾 9%。分析人士指出，美元走弱进一步放大了以美元计价的黄金和白银的上涨空间。 RBC Capital Markets分析师在12月22日的报告中表示，黄金今年上涨的重要原因在于"各国央行和投资 者更加认可黄金作为非主权资产的属性"。他们认为，当前的宏观经济环境 ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in gold and other precious metals prices indicates a potential turning point in the market, with significant fluctuations observed after a period of rapid price increases [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 65% this year, while silver and platinum have surged over 150% and 70% respectively [3] - Silver futures prices skyrocketed from around $50 per ounce to above $80 per ounce, marking a record monthly increase [2] - Platinum prices rose from over $1,640 per ounce to nearly $2,450 per ounce within three weeks, achieving a nearly 50% increase [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking after previous gains, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased margin requirements by major exchanges [3][4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have raised margin requirements for various metal futures, contributing to the market's volatility [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The performance of the gold market in 2026 will depend on multiple interacting variables, with expectations of moderate price increases or stability in most scenarios [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a long-term strategy for reserve diversification [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Silver's industrial demand is expected to rise due to its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, while platinum is transitioning towards being an "energy transition metal" [5] - The changing role of gold as a hard currency is being recognized by investors, especially in light of rising U.S. debt and concerns over fiscal sustainability [6] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - The current market environment suggests that investor sentiment and capital flows are increasingly influencing precious metals prices, with emotional factors becoming significant determinants [7] - The rapid rise and fall in prices serve as a cautionary lesson for investors, emphasizing the need for careful product selection and risk awareness [8]

在全球宏观经济格局不断演变的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力正持续增强。根据最新的市场研 判，金价有望在2026年9月前攀升至每盎司5000美元的关口。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，若届时受到特定周 期性选举引发的政治波动或经济动荡影响，避险资金的涌入可能进一步将金价推升至5400美元的历史高 位。 在具体的价位分布上，相关观点认为市场呈现出明显的重心上移态势。2026年中期的目标价已调升至 4500美元。即便在市场面临极端波动的情境下，通过对财政前景恶化程度的推算，黄金的溢价能力依然 显著。尽管潜在的偏鹰立场或央行售金行为可能带来阶段性阻力，但整体看涨的大趋势并未改变。 对于近期的市场回调，Mhmarkets迈汇表示，技术面的抛售并未动摇基本面的核心逻辑。根据权威统计 数据，今年以来央行已累计购金634公吨，且第四季度的购买活动正呈现加速态势，预计2025年将达到 900至950公吨。此外，ETF的222公吨持续流入和实物金条、金币超过300公吨的旺盛需求，均印证了投 资者对黄金的强烈偏好。 综合来看，目前黄金在许多机构投资组合中的配置比例仍有提升空间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在当前金 价出现短期波动、现 ...

技术面： 基本面： 周二（12月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金于隔夜大幅下跌后略有反弹，目前暂交投于4363美元附近。现货黄金周一（12月29日）从前一交易日的纪录高位 4549.69美元/盎司大幅回落，收盘暴跌4.4%，收报4331.78美元/盎司。整个贵金属板块都出现了大幅调整。现货白银急跌8.9%，铂金重挫14.5%至2104.07美 元/盎司，钯金则暴跌15.23%，主要原因是投资者在近期疯狂上涨后的获利了结。这场突发回调让许多投资者措手不及，但也引发了对黄金未来走势的深度 思考。 尽管此次回调幅度不小，但回顾2025年全年，黄金的表现堪称耀眼。今年以来，金价已累计上涨约65%以上，创下自1979年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。这一轮 大牛市得益于多重因素叠加：全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张、中央银行持续购金、交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入，以及美联储降息预期等，都推动 黄金作为传统避险资产的需求不断攀升。黄金历来在经济和地缘政治不确定时期表现出色。2025年，持续的通胀压力、美元走弱，以及全球贸易摩擦等，都 让投资者将资金转向黄金寻求保值。中央银行的强劲买盘更是提供了坚实支撑，许多国家为了对冲风险而大量增持黄 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver experienced extreme volatility on December 30, with a significant drop of 8.9% to $72.10 per ounce after reaching a historical high of $83.94, marking an increase of nearly 150% for the year, far exceeding gold's performance [1][3] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to supply shortages, rising industrial demand, and increased investment interest, with experts maintaining a positive outlook for silver's performance in 2026 despite short-term corrections [1][3] - The entire precious metals sector, including platinum and palladium, also saw considerable annual gains due to industrial applications and supply constraints [1] Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have influenced gold prices, which are closely tied to geopolitical risks [1][3] - The market is currently experiencing a correction phase, characterized by profit-taking among short-term traders, but the overall upward trend remains intact [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and potential changes in leadership at the Fed are critical factors for market participants to monitor [3][5] Technical Analysis - The silver market is showing a price uptrend, with key support levels identified around $70.50, while resistance levels are noted at $72.50 and $73.00 [9] - The current trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, with recommendations for light positions and a focus on support and resistance levels for potential trades [9] - The price movements in the next few days will be crucial for determining the future trajectory of both gold and silver prices [4][5]

2025 年市场收官在即，各类投资品表现分化显著。今年以来，伦敦现货黄金累计涨幅超70%，创下自 1979 年以来最高单年涨幅，跑赢纳斯达克指数20%，成为全年最稳健的 "赚钱资产"。这场黄金牛市 中，Z世代成为投资主力，而京东金融推出的 "黄金穿越购" 活动，正让不少错过前期涨幅的投资者吃上 "黄金后悔药"，轻松搭上年底黄金行情的末班车。 黄金暴涨 避险情绪与货币逻辑下的价值回归 2025年的黄金市场堪称 "纪录收割机"，回顾年内国际金价走势，伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货均从 2600美元/盎司涨至4500美元/盎司区间，年内累计涨幅超过70%，这也是自1980年以来的最大年度涨 幅。 世界黄金协会分析指出，地缘政治不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及全球央行增持潮，共同推动金价持续走 强。我国央行连续10个月加仓黄金，全球央行更是连续多年增持，让黄金在储备资产中的地位首次超越 美债，成为公认的 "安全压舱石"。 与波动剧烈的股市相比，黄金的稳健表现更受投资者青睐。在A股震荡上行、基金收益分化的背景下， 黄金 "避险 + 增值" 的双重属性凸显，成为普通投资者抵御市场风险的优选。数据显示，越来越多年轻 人加入囤金 ...