Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, attributing it to three main factors: financial attributes, safe-haven demand, and monetary attributes, while emphasizing the long-term investment logic of gold as a super-sovereign credit asset [3][5][9]. Financial Attributes - The opportunity cost of holding gold is significantly influenced by the 10-year U.S. Treasury real interest rates, which have a negative correlation with gold prices. Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the market's expectation for another rate cut in October has risen to approximately 97.8% as of October 14, indicating a substantial increase compared to previous weeks [3][5]. Safe-Haven Demand - The economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming more apparent, with rising inflation and weak employment contributing to concerns about stagflation and long-term recession risks. This uncertainty is driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Recent developments, such as the U.S. government shutdown and renewed tariff tensions, are expected to further elevate market demand for safe-haven assets [5][9]. Monetary Attributes - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the trend of de-globalization are diminishing the dollar's creditworthiness. Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 11 consecutive months. The ongoing high fiscal deficits are likely to maintain a trend of currency depreciation relative to gold, supporting higher gold prices [5][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that as long as there are no significant shifts in the three factors influencing gold pricing, the bullish sentiment towards gold will continue. The long-term investment logic is reinforced by the ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and the trend towards de-dollarization, alongside geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold [9].

值班编辑 ｜ 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 一场历史性的逼空正在席卷伦敦白银市场，严重的现货短缺已将白银价格推升至前所未有的高度，突破 了1980年亨特兄弟试图操纵市场时创下的纪录。 据彭博数据，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%，触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高。这一价格超越了 1980年1月在芝加哥期货交易所（现已不存在的合约）创下的52.50美元高点，当时德州亿万富翁亨特兄 弟试图通过囤积白银来垄断市场。 本文转载自华尔街见闻 ，， 在白银的带动下，现货黄金也攀升至每盎司4150美元，再创历史新高。 上午10时48分，现货白银突破53美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 见闻君此前提及，在强劲的避险需求、印度买盘激增以及对美国潜在关税的担忧等多重因素叠加下，伦 敦白银库存被迅速抽干，这一流动性危机已引发全球范围内的抢白银热潮。 伦敦现货价格一度比纽约期货价格高出3美元，这种史无前例的溢价促使交易员们采取了极端措施—— 包下跨大西洋航班的货舱空运银锭，这种昂贵的操作通常只用于运输黄金。尽管溢价在周二早盘回落至 约1.55美元，但市场紧张情绪丝毫未减。 伦敦流动性告急，借贷成本飙升 伦敦白银市场的流动性几乎完全枯竭，持有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S.-China trade tensions [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices are holding above $4,100 per troy ounce, with futures in New York rising 0.1% to $4,136.20 an ounce [1] - Spot gold trades 2.3% higher at $4,110.34, having reached $4,190.90 earlier in the session [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rally in gold prices is attributed to growing political and economic uncertainties [1] - Expectations of further U.S. interest-rate cuts are contributing to the demand for gold [1] - Strong central-bank buying and inflows into ETFs are also driving the increase in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold jewelry in China has surged significantly, with major brands now pricing gold at over 1200 RMB per gram, reflecting a substantial increase from around 800 RMB at the beginning of the year. This rise is attributed to various factors including geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and currency fluctuations [1][2][3][4]. Price Trends - Major gold brands such as Lao Miao, Chow Tai Fook, and others have seen their prices reach between 1206 and 1218 RMB per gram, marking an increase of approximately 400 RMB per gram within a year [1]. - The price of gold jewelry has consistently followed international gold price trends, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 spot gold price also rising in tandem [1]. Driving Forces Behind Price Increase - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating monetary policies have led to increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, with global gold ETF holdings experiencing net inflows for five consecutive months [2][3]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: According to the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by over 800 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, with emerging market central banks being the primary buyers. China's central bank has also been on a trend of continuous gold accumulation [3]. - **Currency Impact**: The cost of imported gold has risen, which directly affects the gold price in RMB, contributing to the overall increase in jewelry prices [4]. Market Dynamics - The pricing structure of gold jewelry includes the base gold price, processing fees, brand premiums, and taxes. As the base gold price rises, it becomes challenging for brands to lower their prices, leading to higher consumer costs [6]. - Despite the rising prices, sales of gold jewelry have not necessarily declined. Some consumers are opting to purchase gold as a form of investment, with a notable increase in gold bar purchases and a rise in gold recycling activities [6]. Consumer Behavior - The perception of gold jewelry is shifting from a decorative item to an investment, with consumers increasingly viewing their purchases as a form of savings. This change in mindset is reflected in the rising demand for gold bars and the increased interest in recycling old gold [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4116.87 per ounce, is driven by escalating international trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of loose monetary policy, with gold prices up 56% year-to-date [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's price increase is directly linked to the deterioration of international trade relations, particularly following President Trump's recent trade provocations, which have prompted investors to seek gold as a safe haven [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are a significant catalyst for gold's rise, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 100% chance of a cut in December [4][5]. - The strong demand from central banks and the inflow of ETF funds provide structural support for the gold market, reinforcing its upward trajectory [5][7]. Group 2: Institutional Forecasts - Multiple international financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America projecting a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026, and Societe Generale predicting an average price of $4488 per ounce next year [7][8]. - Analysts emphasize that the current market dynamics, including central bank purchases and ETF inflows, are based on empirical data, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Gold Relationship - The recent rebound of the US dollar, which typically inversely correlates with gold prices, highlights the volatility driven by trade tensions, suggesting that any renewed trade threats could lead to a decline in the dollar and a corresponding rise in gold [5][9]. - The interplay between the dollar and gold remains complex, with the dollar serving as a primary safe haven, yet trade uncertainties amplifying its fluctuations [9].

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have surged by 70% this year, significantly outperforming gold's 50% increase, making it a focal point in the precious metals market [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the foundation for silver's price increase is unstable, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and short-term capital inflows [1][4] - Silver's market size is only one-ninth that of gold, leading to greater price volatility due to capital flows [4] Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has increased from 84.7 last year to approximately 102, indicating gold's relative strength amid recession risks and slowing demand for silver in industrial applications [3] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, boosting its price, while silver lacks similar support, making it more susceptible to market sentiment fluctuations [3][4] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as President Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, have further fueled demand for precious metals [1] Price Trends - As of the latest data, spot gold is priced around $4159 per ounce, while spot silver is at $53.32 per ounce [4] - Silver prices have risen over 35% since the end of August, partly due to low inventory levels in London, the global physical silver trading center [4] Technical Analysis - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with support around $48.05 and potential trading strategies involving light positions [8] - The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, suggesting caution in trading activities as market activity appears to be diminishing [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to perform strongly, with gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset is becoming more prominent, and its demand is expected to increase further. [1][2][18] - The copper market is affected by factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and the Indonesian mine accident, which may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - The crude oil market has a short - term downward breakthrough trend, although the demand is expected to grow in the next two years according to OPEC's report. [3][12] - The stock index is likely to maintain a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - The bond market is expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy, and the price of bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns International News - US President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China. [5] - The leaders of the US, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement for Gaza at the "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh. [1][3][12] Domestic News - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 8% year - on - year. The export was 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and the import was 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September decreased for the third consecutive month. [6] Industry News - China has officially implemented a special port fee for US ships starting today. [7] 2. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 10/12 | 10/13 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,552.51 | 6,654.72 | 102.21 | 1.56% | | European STOXX50 | Points | 4,701.04 | 4,719.93 | 18.89 | 0.40% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,978.00 | 14,805.00 | - 173.00 | - 1.16% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 98.82 | 99.26 | 0.44 | 0.44% | | ICE Brent Crude Continuous | USD/Barrel | 62.09 | 63.39 | 1.30 | 2.09% | | London Gold Spot | USD/Ounce | 4,017.85 | 4,110.02 | 92.17 | 2.29% | | London Silver | USD/Ounce | 50.13 | 52.33 | 2.20 | 4.39% | | LME Aluminum | USD/Ton | 2,746.00 | 2,757.00 | 11.00 | 0.40% | | LME Copper | USD/Ton | 10,374.00 | 10,802.00 | 428.00 | 4.13% | | LME Zinc | USD/Ton | 2,984.50 | 3,012.00 | 27.50 | 0.92% | | LME Nickel | USD/Ton | 15,215.00 | 15,180.00 | - 35.00 | - 0.23% | | ICE No.11 Sugar | Cents/Pound | 16.1 | 15.57 | - 0.53 | - 3.29% | | ICE No.2 Cotton | Cents/Pound | 63.77 | 63.54 | - 0.23 | - 0.36% | | CBOT Soybeans | Cents/Bushel | 1,007.00 | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current | USD/Short Ton | 275.60 | 274.50 | - 1.10 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current | Cents/Pound | 49.97 | 50.53 | 0.56 | 1.12% | | CBOT Wheat Current | Cents/Bushel | 498.75 | 496.75 | - 2.00 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Corn Current | Cents/Bushel | 413.50 | 410.50 | - 3.00 | - 0.73% | [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After the high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection stage again, with a high probability of maintaining a long - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.754%. With a loose monetary policy expected, the price of Treasury bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rebounded 0.27% at night. Although OPEC expects oil demand to grow in the next two years, the short - term trend is downward. [3][12] - **Methanol**: Ma fell 0.26% at night. With high inventory and expected import arrivals, methanol is short - term bullish. [13] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. With smooth supply and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. [14] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weakly operating. The price follows the cost - end fluctuations, and the market sentiment is cautious. [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed positive. The market is cautious, and the focus is on consumption in autumn and policy changes. [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold benefits from concerns about the resurgence of the trade war and expectations of two interest rate cuts this year. It is expected to strengthen as the ultimate safe - haven asset. [2][18] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 1.64% at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.13% at night. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and it follows copper prices in the short term. [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption. [21] Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected to intensify due to factors such as steel production and Sino - US trade issues. [22] - **Iron Ore**: With strong demand from steel mills and reduced global shipments, the iron ore market is expected to be bullish. [23] - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market has a weak supply - demand balance, and hot - rolled coils perform better than rebar. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Night - session prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. US soybean prices are expected to be weak, while domestic prices may rise due to supply concerns. [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Night - session prices were strong. Although short - term pressure exists due to inventory and trade issues, long - term support comes from the production season and bio - diesel policies. [26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure. [27][28] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak due to factors such as new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. [29] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The text seems to have a wrong insertion, repeating the content of precious metals. No valid information about container shipping to Europe is provided. [30]

一场历史性的逼空正在席卷伦敦白银市场， 严重的现货短缺已将白银价格推升至前所未有的高度，突破了1980年亨特兄弟试图操纵市场时创下的纪录。 据彭博数据，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%， 触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高 。 这一价格超越了1980年1月在芝加哥期货交易所（现已不存在的合 约）创下的52.50美元高点，当时德州亿万富翁亨特兄弟试图通过囤积白银来垄断市场。 上午10时48分， 现货白银突破53美元/盎司， 再创历史新高。 在白银的带动下，现货黄金也攀升至每盎司4150美元，再创历史新高。 见闻君 此前提及 ，在强劲的避险需求、印度买盘激增以及对美国潜在关税的担忧等多重因素叠加下，伦敦白银库存被迅速抽干， 这一流动性危机已引发全球 范围内的抢白银热潮。 伦敦现货价格一度比纽约期货价格高出3美元，这种史无前例的溢价促使交易员们采取了极端措施——包下跨大西洋航班的货舱空运银锭，这种昂贵的操作通 常只用于运输黄金。 尽管溢价在周二早盘回落至约1.55美元，但市场紧张情绪丝毫未减。 伦敦流动性告急，借贷成本飙升 "我此前从未见过如此情形，"Greenland Investment Managemen ...

Core Viewpoint - A historic short squeeze is occurring in the silver market, with London spot silver prices reaching an all-time high of $52.5868 per ounce, driven by severe physical shortages and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices has surpassed the previous record set in 1980 during the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the market [3]. - A liquidity crisis in the London silver market has led to extreme measures by traders, including chartering transatlantic flights to transport silver bars, reflecting unprecedented premiums [5][10]. - The one-month leasing rate for silver in London has skyrocketed to over 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized [8][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The drastic reduction in available silver inventory in London, which has plummeted by 75% since mid-2019, is a key factor contributing to the current market conditions [10]. - Increased demand from India and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on key minerals have further strained the already tight supply [11]. - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is actively monitoring the situation due to the ongoing supply tightness [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts have differing views on the future of silver prices, with Bank of America raising its 2026 price target from $44 to $65 per ounce due to ongoing supply shortages and low interest rates [12]. - Goldman Sachs warns of a potential sharp correction in silver prices as physical tightness is expected to ease with increased supply from China and the U.S. in the coming weeks [12]. - The silver market's lower liquidity compared to gold amplifies price volatility, making it susceptible to disproportionate corrections if investment flows decline [12].

国际金价，幕后推手？ （一）紧密联动揭秘 国际金价就像是国内珠宝品牌足金首饰价格的 "指挥棒" 。国际黄金市场是全球统一的大市场，其价格由全球的供需关系、经 济形势、政治局势等诸多因素共同决定。而国内的珠宝品牌在制定足金首饰价格时，会紧紧盯着国际金价这个 "风向标"。因 为黄金是一种全球性交易的商品，国际金价的波动会迅速传导至国内市场，国内珠宝商的进货成本会随着国际金价的涨跌而 变动，这自然就会反映在终端的足金首饰售价上。 （二）国际金价走势回溯 2025 年的国际金价走势，简直就像一部充满刺激剧情的大片！年初开盘时，国际金价在 2641 美元 / 盎司左右 ，此后便开启了 它的疯狂上涨之旅。3 月 14 日，COMEX 黄金价格首次突破 3000 美元 / 盎司 ，这就像是打开了一道财富的新大门，市场开始 点击公众号主页右上角，实时关注IPO小助手最新资讯 家人们，今天必须来和大家聊聊这疯狂上涨的金价！你敢相信吗？2025 年初的时候，周生生足金饰品价格还在 800 元 / 克左 右徘徊 ，可到了 10 月 14 日，已经一路狂飙至 1213 元 / 克！短短不到一年的时间，每克竟然上涨了约 400 元！这 ...