Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US economy** and its trade dynamics, particularly in relation to tariffs and trade agreements with the **UK** and other countries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Agreements**: The recent trade agreement between the US and UK suggests a baseline tariff rate of **10%**, indicating that this may be a floor for future trade negotiations with other countries [2][4] 2. **Trade Deficit**: The US trade balance in March showed a record deficit of **$140.5 billion**, with imports increasing by **$17.8 billion** (4.4% month-over-month), while exports only rose by **$0.5 billion** (0.2% month-over-month) [3][27] 3. **Impact of Tariffs on GDP**: The anticipated cuts in GDP growth estimates due to tariffs are being reassessed, with the Q1 GDP growth potentially revised from **-0.3%** to **-0.2%** [5][6] 4. **Labor Market Resilience**: Despite expectations of a slowdown in the labor market, recent data shows a gain of **177,000** jobs in April, with the unemployment rate stable at **4.2%** [7][27] 5. **Inflation Expectations**: The FOMC is cautious about inflation, with expectations for core CPI to rise significantly in the coming months due to tariffs impacting imported goods prices [13][14][19] 6. **FOMC Policy Stance**: The FOMC maintained its policy rates at **4.25-4.50%**, indicating a wait-and-see approach amid economic uncertainty and potential risks of higher unemployment and inflation [15][26] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Spending Trends**: Upcoming data is expected to show a decline in consumer spending, particularly in retail sales, which are forecasted to drop by **0.3% month-over-month** in April [9][30] 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production is projected to increase by **0.5% month-over-month** in April, driven by manufacturing activity [10][31] 3. **Long-term Inflation Expectations**: There is a notable increase in long-term inflation expectations, with the NY Fed's measure rising to **4.79%** in April, influenced by tariff concerns [18][20] 4. **Trade Deal Challenges**: The UK trade deal is seen as a precursor to more complex negotiations with countries like India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, which may face more challenges [2][4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, trade dynamics, and the implications for future monetary policy.

Core Viewpoint - The Polish central bank official Litwiniuk suggests that autumn may be a suitable time for a "steady adjustment" of interest rates, with a total change in rates this year potentially reaching 125 basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential for a "steady adjustment" in interest rates indicates a proactive approach by the Polish central bank to manage economic conditions [1] - The total expected change of 125 basis points reflects significant monetary policy adjustments that could impact the financial markets and economic growth [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the coke market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday market sentiment. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand balance has limited upward space for iron - water production. The coke main contract is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The relevant national ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the central bank has cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points since May 8th [9]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [9]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Short - term coke supply elasticity is better than that of coking coal. The current iron - water output is 244.35 + 4.23 = 248.58 tons, and the supply - demand is in balance, with limited upward space for iron - water. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 1 yuan/ton, and the demand in the sector is under pressure due to the tariff war, facing seasonal decline in the second and third quarters [9]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, and market confidence is insufficient. The coke main contract should be treated as operating in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the coke futures contract open interest was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 96,300 lots. The 9 - 5 contract month - spread was - 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 1,190 lots, an increase of 300 lots. The futures rebar - coke ratio was 2.09, an increase of 0.08 [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The coke basis was 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry Production**: In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The output of coking coal in March 2025 was 4,161,470 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23% [30]. - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The average daily coke output was 53.50, a decrease of 0.27. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 1 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 21 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 55 yuan/ton, and the average loss of secondary coke in Inner Mongolia was 48 yuan/ton [34]. - **Downstream Situation**: As of May 9, the average daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 245.64 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 11.14 tons compared to the same period last year. As of May 1, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.6949 million tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 21.29% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: As of May 9, the coke inventory of 18 ports was 2.8368 million tons, a decrease of 71,100 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a decrease of 4,190 tons, and the available days of coke were 12.1 days, a decrease of 0.07 days [43]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Export and Import**: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 1.0462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative steel export volume was 3.7891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20% [48]. - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - scale cities was 1.5584 million square meters, a decrease of 9.60% month - on - month and an increase of 48.76% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 510,100 square meters, a decrease of 6.18% month - on - month and an increase of 49.63% year - on - year, and in second - tier cities was 776,400 square meters, a decrease of 6.94% month - on - month and an increase of 52.71% year - on - year [51][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to resume interest rate hikes if the economy meets expectations, indicating a high probability of rate increases after two pauses [1][3] - The BOJ is closely monitoring price trends due to high global economic uncertainty, which has influenced its recent decisions to pause rate hikes [1][3] - Japan's inflation rate is currently at 3.6%, with core CPI at 3.2%, indicating a high inflation environment that necessitates continued interest rate increases [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's monetary policy is the key factor determining the direction of the Japanese yen, with projected rate hikes of 20 basis points in March 2024, 15 basis points in July 2024, and 25 basis points in January 2025 [3] - The divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the U.S. suggests that the yen could benefit during a period of dollar weakness, as Japan's inflation remains elevated while the U.S. is reducing rates [4] - The USDJPY is currently in a significant bearish trend, with recent lows at 146.5 and 139.8, but has entered a rebound phase since April 22, 2024 [6]

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：空头减仓离场，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿港口报价上移，锰硅偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...

截至2025年5月9日 10:07，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.66元。拉长时间看，截至2025年5月8日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.14%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.15%，成交2079.35万元。拉长时间看，截至5月8日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交18.59亿元。 公司债ETF最新规模达135.78亿元，新份额达1.29亿份，均创近1年新高。 5月8日利率债二级交易，大行-248亿，股份行-298亿，城商行-263亿，债基-171亿，险资-69亿，农商行+490亿，券商自营+206亿。债基净卖出超长债，险资 卖短买长，农商行反复搓波段。尽管非银大多不愿意下车，但债基开始降久期了。 业内人士发表观点，当前，我们明确看空超长利率债，认为没有盼头了，增发政府债券或关税谈成都是风险。月底存款挂牌利率预计下调10BP左右，存款 利率下调预计将促进理财规模增长。 华泰证券认为，资金宽松对短端利好明确。从历史经验看，降准落地初期资金中枢通常会快速下探，因此双降对短端利好相对直接。长端利率面临方向有利 与空间透支的尴尬，短期面临止盈扰动，逢调整买入策略不变。 当前的市场情绪难比4 ...

Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained the base interest rate at 4.75%, indicating that the supply and demand for Hong Kong dollars and overall liquidity will continue to influence the Hong Kong interbank offered rate, particularly for short-term interest rates [1] - The HKMA's CEO, Eddie Yue, stated that to enhance defensive measures, the proportion of US dollar assets in the foreign exchange fund has been reduced from over 90% to approximately 79%, and the duration of US Treasury investments has been shortened [1] - The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate to 4.25%, with the monetary policy guidance remaining "gradual and cautious," reflecting differing opinions within the central bank regarding the extent of the rate cut [2] Economic Indicators - As of the end of April, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves have decreased to $404.67 billion, the lowest level in five years, although it is expected not to fall below the $400 billion mark [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US have decreased to 228,000, with continuing claims also showing a reduction, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The US first-quarter labor productivity has experienced its first decline since 2022, while unit labor costs have significantly increased [5] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.62% to 41,368.45 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,663.94 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.07% to 17,928.14 points [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 2.40% to $3,310.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.57% to $32.61 per ounce [7] - The main contract for US oil rose by 3.81% to $60.28 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil increased by 3.40% to $63.20 per barrel [8] Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 0.73% to 100.63, with the euro to dollar exchange rate down by 0.68% to 1.1226, and the British pound to dollar rate down by 0.34% to 1.3247 [9]

秘鲁央行将参考利率从4.75%下调至4.5%。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.5% to 4.25%, maintaining a cautious approach to future rate changes [1] - Inflation expectations have been revised down, with the Bank forecasting inflation to peak at 3.5% in Q3 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.7% [2] - The overall inflation rate in the UK has remained around the 2% target level over the past year, although slightly above the average [2] Group 2 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is vigilant about dual risks stemming from trade tariffs and economic uncertainty, which may impact economic activity [2] - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, with traders adjusting their expectations for future rate cuts [4] - Various institutions predict further rate cuts, with Capital Economics expecting a reduction to 4% by the end of the year, and Morgan Stanley forecasting a drop to 3.25% [5][7] Group 3 - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor noted that it is too early to assess significant changes in trade patterns following tariff adjustments [3] - The Bank is expected to maintain a gradual and cautious approach to further rate cuts due to the unpredictable global economic situation [3] - Oxford Economics suggests that concerns over US tariffs may prompt the Bank to adopt a more proactive stance on rate cuts [8]

波兰央行行长："利率调整"并不意味着宽松周期的开始。 ...