同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率表现不一。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.0557，日内升值幅度为0.02%；离岸人民币对美元报7.0524，日内贬值幅度为0.02%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）12月12日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场 人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0638元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0686元，调升48基点。 ...

"在有效需求不足、物价持续低迷的背景下，明年降准降息可期，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发 力。"管涛表示。此外，通过完善利率自律机制、综合治理金融体系的内卷式竞争、建立健全做好金 融"五篇大文章"的体制机制，能够引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，进一步畅 通货币政策传导。 中央经济工作会议还指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 "在内外部不确定因素综合影响下，明年人民币汇率有望延续双向波动态势。"管涛表示，这是中央经济 工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，体现了既要防范汇率过度贬 值、也要防范汇率过度升值的政策取向，有助于遏制外汇市场的顺周期单边羊群效应，为明年推动经济 持续回升创造一个平稳的外汇金融环境。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate, particularly its movement around the psychological level of "7" against the US Dollar (USD) [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The RMB's effective return to the "6" range requires four core conditions: robust domestic economic fundamentals, a structurally weak US Dollar index, sustained net inflows of cross-border capital, and stable, flexible policy adjustments [1][6][13]. - The probability of the RMB breaking "7" in 2026 is considered feasible due to the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, the recovery of domestic asset attractiveness, and significant changes in the international balance of payments [1][11][12][13]. - Historical instances of the RMB breaking "7" and returning to "6" occurred between 2019 and 2022, lasting 3 to 5 months, indicating resilience and self-regulation in the foreign exchange market [5][7]. - The current conditions for the RMB to effectively break "7" include a narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, increased attractiveness of domestic assets, diversification of export structures, and policy guidance forming a positive feedback loop [13]. Important but Overlooked Content - The RMB has remained above "7" due to weak domestic economic recovery post-pandemic and a significant inversion of the China-US interest rate differential, leading to depreciation pressures [10]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the US midterm elections and fluctuating China-US trade relations, could impact the RMB's exchange rate trajectory in 2026 [14]. - The anticipated RMB appreciation in the second half of 2025 is driven by systemic factors rather than short-term market sentiment, suggesting a sustainable upward trend [11][12]. - The forecast for 2026 indicates a likely range of 7.0 to 7.25 for the USD/RMB exchange rate, with potential for a temporary break below "7" but not a sustainable break unless economic conditions improve significantly [16].

12月12日人民币对美元中间价报7.0638元 上调48个基点 中新网12月12日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月12日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为：1美元对人民币7.0638元，上调48个基点。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

(责任编辑：马欣) 中国经济网北京12月12日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0638，较前一交易日上调48个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月12日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美 元对人民币7.0638元，1欧元对人民币8.2842元，100日元对人民币4.5344元，1港元对人民币0.90779元， 1英镑对人民币9.4468元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6996元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0973元，1新加坡元对 人民币5.4632元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8751元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1203元，人民币1元对1.1354澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58198马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3115俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3897南非兰 特，人民币1元对208.68韩元，人民币1元对0.52070阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53204沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.2421匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51022波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9020丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3114瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4271挪威克朗， ...

新华社北京12月12日电 中国外汇交易中心12月12日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里 亚尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 12月12日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 706.38人民币 100欧元 828.42人民币 100日元 4.5344人民币 100港元 90.779人民币 100英镑 944.68人民币 100澳元 469.96人民币 100新西兰元 409.73人民币 100新加坡元 546.32人民币 100瑞士法郎 887.51人民币 100加元 512.03人民币 100人民币113.54澳门元 100人民币58.198马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1131.15俄罗斯卢布 100人民币238.97南非兰特 100人民币20868韩元 100人民币52.07阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币53.204沙特里亚尔 100人民币4624.21匈牙利福林 100人民币51.022波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.2丹麦克朗 100人民币131.14瑞典克朗 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap, a narrowing Sino-US interest rate gap favorable to the RMB, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. It is predicted that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.05 - 7.10. If the US core data is significantly weaker than expected or China's external demand continues to improve, the probability of a short-term upward movement of the RMB will increase, but the probability of breaking through 7.0 in the short term is relatively small [32][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity, Price, and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the new exchange USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and Sino-US interest rate differentials in different time periods [7]. Policy Observation - The adjustment direction of the counter-cyclical factor has returned to above 0% from negative. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Interest Rate Cuts and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 908.5 billion on December 3rd (remaining at a high level), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (-123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non-US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [16]. Macro - Federal Reserve Voting Seats - Stephen Milan holds a temporary seat, and the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman will be determined before Christmas on December 25th. Raphael Bostic will retire early in February 2026, and the candidate is yet to be determined. The Supreme Court will rule in January 2026 on whether Trump has the right to dismiss Lisa Cook. The Federal Reserve passed the December interest rate decision with a 9:3 vote, cutting the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.50% - 3.75% [18]. Macro - Federal Reserve Chairman Candidates - The core competition is between Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Currently, market probabilities show that Hassett is leading, but Trump highly trusts Raphael Bostic. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it is expected to trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [20]. Core Charts - US Economy - The government has reopened, and attention should be paid to the impact on the economy during the shutdown period. In November, the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, inflation data is awaited, and the economic outlook has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in October increased slightly [22]. Economy - US November PMI - In the manufacturing sector, new orders, employment, and delivery made negative contributions, while prices and output made positive contributions. In the service sector, prices made a positive contribution, while employment and imports made negative contributions [23]. Macro - Chinese Economy - There is a structural differentiation in the economy. Exports and imports rebounded in November. The reduction in working days in October dragged down the data for that month, and there is an expected slight rebound in November. The December Politburo meeting shows a swing in policy expectations [26]. Macro - November Export Rebound - The characteristics of re - exports continue. Exports to the US decreased by 28.58% (previous value: -25.17%), while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa were 8.17%, 7.97%, and 5.4% respectively (previous values: 10.96%, 14.3%, and 23.3% respectively). Most sub - items declined, but rare earths, electromechanical products, and automobiles still showed resilience. The market has a consistent optimistic expectation for exports, and attention should be paid to the impact risk if there is an unexpected downward revision [28]. 12 - month Politburo's Task Deployment for 2026 - There are changes in the task deployment for 2026 compared to 2025, including adjustments in the focus on domestic demand, science and technology/industry, reform, opening - up, risk prevention, and other aspects [30]. Comparison of Politburo Meetings - There are differences in the judgment of the economic situation, overall economic work requirements, macro - policy tones, consumption and investment, risk prevention focuses, and other aspects between the July 30, 2025 Politburo meeting and the December 8, 2025 Politburo meeting [31]. Macro - 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there are important time points such as the determination of the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, OPEC and FOMC meetings, the release of the government work report, the National People's Congress, the expiration of Powell's term, and the US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economy and policies [38].

（记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，兆驰股份的营业收入构成为：电子制造及互联网服务占比100.0%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——专访管涛：美国政府经济贸易政策正逐渐动摇美元本位国际货币体系，利 多因素下人民币汇率有可能破7 每经AI快讯，兆驰股份（SZ 002429，收盘价：7.17元）发布公告称，2025年12月10日，兆驰股份接受 浙商证券等投资者调研，公司副总经理兼董事会秘书单华锦等人参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问 题。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to enhance economic potential and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected economic growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic stability [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][8]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of RRR cuts or interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable liquidity environment [8]. - The conference aims to guide financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [8]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies to implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income and stabilizing investment [10][11]. - The focus on consumer spending and investment as key drivers for domestic demand reflects a shift towards demand-side economic strategies [10]. Real Estate Market - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" as a key strategy, particularly in light of high inventory levels in many cities [13][14]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which aims to optimize market supply and meet housing needs [14]. Capital Market Reform - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms to enhance support for technological innovation and the real economy [15][17]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, with an emphasis on attracting long-term investment [15][17]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is aimed at fostering innovation and addressing global technological competition [19][20]. - The centers will focus on leveraging existing resources and enhancing collaboration to drive technological advancements and economic transformation [19][20]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and stimulate enterprise vitality through reforms, including the establishment of a unified national market [22][23]. - There is a commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with targeted policies to mitigate its negative effects on the economy [23]. International Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of signing more regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance cooperation and maintain a multilateral trade system [25][26]. - The goal is to expand high-standard free trade networks and facilitate trade and investment with partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP and other agreements [25][26].