美国财政部长贝森特6日表示，美国总统特朗普7日将向贸易伙伴发送信函，告知美方计划征收的关税税 率。对于未能达成协议的国家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣布的"对等关税"水平。 欧盟说仍在争取与美国达成原则性贸易协议 智通财经7月7日电，据新华社报道，欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔7日表示，欧盟仍在争取于7月9日前 与美国达成一项原则性的双边贸易协议，目前欧盟与美国仍在继续接触。吉尔说，欧盟始终致力于达成 一项有利于欧盟企业、消费者和全球经济的协议。此外，欧盟也已准备好应对所有结果的选项，包括反 制清单，但暂不打算启动该程序。他表示，欧盟已完成对成员国、企业和利益相关方的意见征询。目 前，欧盟仍把谈判作为首要任务，但也在为其他可能的结果做准备。 目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关税，对几乎所有其他商品征收10%基 准关税。特朗普还曾威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没有取得突破，他将对欧盟商品征收50%关 税。作为回应，欧盟曾决定对总额210亿欧元的进口美国产品加征最高50%的关税。但为给贸易谈判留 出时间，这一报复措施将推迟至7月14日生效。 ...

美股维持跌势，纳指跌0.45%。据彭博报道，知情官员透露，印度已向美国提出其在贸易问题上的最佳 方案，能否达成临时协议，目前掌握在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的手中。新德里已向特朗普政府表明了 在达成协议过程中不会逾越的底线，其中包括不允许美国向印度出口转基因农作物，以及不会向美国开 放印度的乳制品和汽车市场。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在特朗普90天互惠关税暂缓期于7月9日到期的最后几天，这位美国总统计划周一宣 布贸易协议并发出关税警告，而各国在整个周末持续谈判，力求在周三(7月9日)原截止日前避免对美出 口商品被施以最高惩罚性措施。在美国官员暗示贸易伙伴可在8月1日关税生效前继续协商后，谈判时间 表似乎被重置，这为他们争取到额外三周的协议磋商期。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)上周日表示，若美国的贸易伙伴在贸易谈判中未取得进展， 关税将于8月1日生效，恢复至4月水平。他评论道："特朗普总统将向部分贸易伙伴致信，表明若你们不 推进谈判，那么8月1日起，你们的关税将回弹至4月2日的水平。" 不过，贝森特早些时候否认特朗普以8月1日为新的最后期限。他称："最后阶段事务非常繁忙。""这不 是新的截止期限。我们是在说明，事情就会在这天发生。要是你们想加快进度，那就去做。要是你们想 回到原来的税率，那是你们的选择。" 贝森特还说："走着瞧吧，我不会透露全盘策略。"当被问及政府是否会在周三前达成若干协议时，贝森 特回应："我预计未来几日会有几项重大声明发布。" 贝森特表示，18个主要贸易伙伴是优先事项，预计 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a sudden decline, dropping to around $3300 per ounce after reaching a daily high of $3342.82 per ounce, influenced by market anticipation of trade negotiations and tariff updates from the U.S. government [2] - The market is currently observing a cautious sentiment as investors await the outcome of trade discussions and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which are expected to provide further insights [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at $3345 and $3365, while support is found around $3305 and $3295 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is reacting to OPEC+'s decision to increase daily oil production by 548,000 barrels starting in August, which has heightened investor focus on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. policy changes [6] - Technical indicators suggest that while the medium-term trend for oil remains upward, short-term movements are showing signs of a downward trend, with key resistance levels at $69.0-$70.0 and support at $65.5-$64.5 [7]

Group 1 - Indonesia plans to increase wheat purchases from the United States, aiming to sign a memorandum of understanding for wheat procurement from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Indonesia will purchase at least 800,000 tons of wheat from the U.S. this year, an increase of approximately 8% from 740,000 tons in 2024 [1] - Starting in 2026, Indonesia commits to purchasing at least 1 million tons of U.S. wheat annually, with the last significant purchase exceeding 1 million tons occurring in 2020 [1] Group 2 - Indonesia intends to implement near-zero tariffs on over 1,700 U.S. products, covering nearly 70% of U.S. imports [2] - The trade agreement aims to avoid a potential 32% tariff threat from the U.S., with expectations to lower tariffs below the 20% level recently achieved by Vietnam [2] - The agreement will encompass key sectors such as electronics, machinery, chemicals, healthcare, steel, agriculture, and automotive [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Weekend OPEC+ confirmed production increase in August, with a daily increase of 548,000 barrels exceeding market expectations, bringing strong short - term downward risk to oil prices. Trump's tariff exemption period expires this week. Although the US Treasury Secretary said that several trade agreements are close to being reached, other major economies are not optimistic. There are still many negative factors to be released this week, and short - term oil prices are under obvious pressure. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2508 Fundamental Analysis**: The US is close to reaching several trade agreements, and OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The global economic outlook is stable, and market fundamentals are healthy. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. US API and EIA inventories increased, while Cushing area inventory decreased. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average. WTI crude oil's main position has more long - positions increasing, while Brent crude oil's main position has more long - positions decreasing. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market Quotes**: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from 68.80 to 68.30, a decrease of 0.73%; WTI crude oil settlement price dropped from 67.00 to 62.36, a decrease of 6.93%; SC crude oil settlement price rose from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%; Oman crude oil settlement price rose from 68.70 to 69.78, an increase of 1.57%. In the spot market, prices of various types of crude oil also changed to different degrees [7][9]. 2. Recent News - **Tariff Situation**: As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the global market faces a crucial week. The US may re - impose tariffs on dozens of countries after July 9. The US Treasury Secretary said that trade partners need to reach an agreement by August 1, otherwise, tariffs will return to the level on April 2. India and the US may reach a mini - trade agreement in 24 - 48 hours, with an average tariff of about 10%, but India has set red lines in agriculture and dairy products [5]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day from August, and may consider another 548,000 - barrel - per - day increase in September. If so, it will revoke the 2.2 - million - barrel - per - day production cut plan implemented in 2023 one year ahead of schedule. However, the actual supply increase may be lower than expected because Saudi Arabia is pressuring over - producing countries. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for the Asian market after the production increase announcement, showing confidence in the market [5]. 3. Multi - Empty Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified again [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28, and EIA inventory increased by 3.845 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels in the week ending June 28. As of July 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.957 million barrels [3]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and the call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 [18][19]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of June 24, the net long - position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 1,921 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of June 24, the net long - position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 80,577 [17].

Core Points - Thailand is making concessions to the U.S. by offering greater market access for agricultural and industrial products, and committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft to reach a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to avoid a 36% tariff threat from the Trump administration [1][2] - The latest proposal aims to reduce Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% over five years, significantly accelerating the timeline compared to a previous ten-year plan [1][3] - Neighboring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have already reached agreements with the U.S., increasing pressure on Thailand to secure favorable trade terms [1][3] Group 1: Trade Concessions - Thailand's new proposal includes commitments to provide greater market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and to increase imports of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft [2][4] - The proposal allows for the immediate cancellation of most import tariffs or non-tariff barriers, with gradual easing of restrictions on a few products [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The urgency for Thailand to finalize a trade agreement stems from economic pressures, including high household debt and weak domestic consumption, which could be exacerbated by high tariffs [6] - A favorable trade agreement is seen as crucial for protecting Thailand's trade-dependent economy from further downturns and alleviating investor concerns over political instability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic factors, including U.S. fiscal policies, employment data, and geopolitical tensions, indicating a complex market environment for gold investments [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,310.52 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.79% [3]. - The COMEX gold price has also decreased to $3,319 per ounce, with a drop of 0.69% [3]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a decrease of 0.70% with a turnover rate of 1.16% and a transaction volume of 328 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June PMI data exceeded expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49 (expected 48.8) and the services PMI at 50.8 (expected 50.5) [3]. - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (expected 4.3%) [3]. Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Policies - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is controversial due to its potential to increase long-term debt and reduce federal assistance [3]. - The bill raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a potential increase in the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - Analysts predict that gold will continue to perform well in the first half of 2025, but may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum due to improved market risk sentiment and potential shifts in liquidity [4]. - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut remains high, influenced by ongoing economic pressures and political pressures from President Trump [5]. - The gold market is expected to enter a critical phase of supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors contributing to price volatility [6].

越南（资料图） 据环球时报报道，美国总统特朗普7月2日在社交媒体上表示，他已与越南方面达成贸易协议，美国将对越南出口到美国的商品征收20%的关税，并对任何被 视为经越南转运到美国的商品征收40%的关税。此外，特朗普还表示，越南已同意取消对美国进口商品的所有关税。西方媒体称，美越达成的税率低于特朗 普4月宣布的计划对越南商品征收的46%关税，有助于缓和美国与越南的经贸关系紧张。 实际上，在六月中旬，越南便与美国在华盛顿举行了第三轮贸易谈判，当时越南方面派出包 括外交部、公安部在内的九大部门，而这次谈判也被视作美越经贸关系的重要转折点。谈判期间，美国商务部长鲁特尼克就公开表态，称双方的谈判取得了 突破性的进展，在关税政策以及市场准入等问题上已经取得了关键性进展。鲁特尼克表示，越南不仅是美国在供应链上的重要伙伴，而且还是美国印太战略 的关键点，是东盟地区连接美国的桥梁。 贸易（资料图） 越南是美国第八大贸易伙伴，2024年越南对美国贸易顺差已经超过了1200亿美元，越南也由此成为对美贸易顺差第四大的经济体。据新华社转引越通社的报 道，越共中央总书记苏林与特朗普7月2日就越美关系及两国关税谈判等问题通电话。特朗普强调 ...

智通财经7月7日电，据央视新闻，美国白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰6日在接受美国广播公司的 采访时表示，随着美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议的最后期限临近，一些与美国"真诚谈判"的国家可能会 推迟征收关税。 关税"大限"将至 白宫暗示可能调整部分国家谈判截止日期 ...