证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 招商银行（600036.SH）2024 年年报点评 优于大市 客群和风控护城河进一步彰显 归母净利润增速转正。2024 年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比下降 0.5%，归母净 利润 1484 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。其中四季度单季营收同比增长 7.5%，归母 净利润同比增长 7.6%。公司 ROAE 为 14.49%，仍处在高位。 四季度营收实现较好增长主要受益于净息差降幅收窄，以及其他非息收入的 高增。2024 年净利息收入同比下降 1.6%，其中四季度单季同比增长 3.0%， 主要受益于净息差降幅收窄。公司披露的 2024 年净息差 1.98%，同比收窄 17bps，较前三季度下降 1bp。其中四季度单季净息差为 1.94%，同比仅收窄 10bps。期末资产总额 12.15 万亿元，贷款总额 6.89 万亿元，存款总额 9.20 万亿元，较年初分别增长 10.2%、5.8%和 11.6%，规模扩张稳健。 2024 年手续费净收入同比下降 14.3%，大财富管理收入延续下降态势。不过 受益于债券收益率下行，2024 年度其他非息收入同比增长 34%，带来 2024 ...

招商银行年报出炉，拟分红超500亿元，同时还公布 一份中期分红计划 3月25日晚间，招商银行（600036）发布2024年业绩报告。2024年招商银行净利润为1483.91亿元， 同比增长1.22%；营业收入3374.88亿元，同比下降0.48%；总资产达到12.15万亿元，较上年末增长 10.19%。 2024年，招行集团口径下营业收入为3374.88亿元，同比下降0.48%，较2024年三季度末进一步收 窄。拆解收入来看，招行净利息收益率1.98%，净利息收入为2112.77亿元，全年降幅较前三季度缩窄至 1.58%。此外，非利息净收入方面，招商银行克服减费让利等影响，实现全年增速转正，同比增长 1.41%至1262.11亿元。 资产质量方面，招行风险仍控制在比较低的水平，集团口径下，不良贷款率为0.95%，与上年末持 平，连续4年保持在1%以下；信用成本0.65%，同比下降9个基点；拨备覆盖率为411.98%，贷款拨备率 为3.92%，风险抵补能力保持强健。房地产领域风险管控方面，截至报告期末，银行口径下房地产业不 良贷款率4.74%，较上年末下降0.27个百分点。 利润分配方面，招商银行发布的《202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of net interest margin (NIM) at the Bank of Communications (BoCom) indicates a potential recovery in the banking sector, despite ongoing challenges in non-interest income [1][2]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin - Since 2020, the NIM in the banking industry has been under pressure, but recent data shows signs of stabilization, particularly for BoCom, where the NIM decline has narrowed from 20 basis points year-on-year to just 1 basis point in 2024 [1][2]. - In 2024, BoCom's NIM for the four quarters was reported at 1.27%, 1.30%, 1.26%, and 1.24%, indicating a trend of slight decline [2]. - The external factors supporting the stabilization of NIM include a moderately loose monetary policy and improved asset-liability management strategies [4]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - BoCom's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.87% and 0.93% year-on-year, respectively, surpassing the previous year's growth rates [1]. - The bank's retail loan growth has been a significant contributor to this performance, with retail loans growing at over 10% against an overall loan growth of 7.52% [5][9]. Group 3: Non-Interest Income Challenges - BoCom faced a decline in non-interest income, with net income from fees and commissions dropping by 14.16% in 2024, reflecting a broader industry trend [8]. - The decline in non-interest income is attributed to market adjustments and increased competition in the insurance and fund sectors, leading to a 30% reduction in average commission levels since the implementation of new regulations [8]. Group 4: Retail Loan Strategy - BoCom is focusing on increasing the proportion of retail loans, which are seen as a new growth point, with retail loan growth reaching 11.29% in 2024 [9]. - The bank has significantly increased its personal consumption loans, with growth rates of 86.25% and 90.44% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [9]. - Despite the growth in retail loans, there are concerns about asset quality, as the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for personal loans exceeded 1.08%, indicating a need for heightened vigilance [11][10].

Dividend Distribution - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is RMB 6.08 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 11.799 billion, which represents 28.32% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders and 26.51% of the total net profit [1] - The interim dividend for 2024 was RMB 2.46 per 10 shares, amounting to RMB 4.774 billion, while the proposed year-end dividend is RMB 3.62 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 7.025 billion [1] - The shareholder return plan for 2024-2026 indicates that cash distributions will range from 10% to 35% of the distributable profits for the year [1] Interest Margin Outlook - The net interest margin for 2024 is projected at 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to declining market interest rates and the reduction of high-risk retail assets [1] - For 2025, the net interest margin is expected to face downward pressure, but the decline rate is anticipated to slow down [1] Asset Quality Performance - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, unchanged from the previous year, with an NPL generation rate of 1.80%, down by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The provision coverage ratio is 250.71%, a decrease of 26.92 percentage points from the previous year [2] Retail Loan Situation - The personal loan balance at the end of 2024 is RMB 1.7672 trillion, a decrease of 10.6% from the previous year, with mortgage loans accounting for 62.8% of personal loans [3] - Strategies include optimizing loan structures, enhancing risk management, and improving customer engagement to support long-term business health [3] Corporate Loan Direction - New corporate loans in 2024 for key industries (infrastructure, automotive, public utilities, real estate) are projected at RMB 442.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [4] - New loans for emerging industries (new manufacturing, new energy, new lifestyle) are expected to reach RMB 216 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.9% [4] Wealth Management Performance - The number of wealth management clients reached 1.46 million, a growth of 5.7% year-on-year, with private banking clients increasing by 7.3% to 300,000 [5] - The assets under management (AUM) for private banking clients totaled RMB 1.9755 trillion, a 3.1% increase from the previous year [5] - Wealth management service fees amounted to RMB 4.4 billion, with a decline attributed to reduced fees in the insurance channel [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is maintained as "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The bank continues to maintain a high dividend payout, distributing cash dividends of 6.08 yuan per 10 shares for the full year 2024, resulting in a dividend rate of approximately 28.3% [2]. - Total assets grew by 3.3% year-on-year, with financial investments increasing by 14.8%. However, loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year [2]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06%, unchanged from the previous year [3]. - The bank is actively transforming its corporate and retail businesses while managing retail risks and restructuring its asset-liability balance [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards due to business restructuring and weak overall demand, with projected net profits of 458 billion yuan, 462 billion yuan, and 491 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the bank's operating income is projected at 146,695 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 44,508 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% [5]. - The bank's net interest margin is reported at 1.87%, down 51 basis points year-on-year [2]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan generation rate is 1.8%, a decrease of 9 basis points year-on-year. The provision coverage ratio stands at 250.71% [3]. - Retail business risks are gradually being resolved, with a retail loan non-performing ratio of 1.39%, which has increased by 2 basis points since the beginning of the year [3]. Future Outlook - The bank's business structure is undergoing adjustments, with a focus on balancing volume and price. The projected price-to-book ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.44, 0.41, and 0.39, respectively [3].

ab 13 March 2025 Global Research First Read China Banks US marketing feedback: Warmer sentiment towards China; Modest positioning increase LO still hesitant; Macro funds active; PB saw some fund flowing into China In our US marketing trip last week, we met c30 institutions, with c 40% being EM long- only funds, 40% EM-focused hedge funds, and the rest 10-20% macro funds. Though still underweight on China, US investors' sentiment appear warmer towards China market, particularly in AI/ tech/ Internet sectors. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is maintained at Buy-A with a 6-month target price of 14.17 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 11.97 CNY [4]. Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue growth is under pressure due to ongoing transformation and restructuring, with a reported revenue decline of 10.93% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.19% year-on-year, indicating a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1]. - The bank's asset quality shows signs of improvement, with a decrease in the non-performing loan generation rate to 1.8% in 2024, down 9 basis points year-on-year [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Ping An Bank's operating revenue was 146.695 billion CNY, with a projected revenue decline of 7.76% for 2025 [14]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 was 44.508 billion CNY, with an expected slight increase to 44.899 billion CNY in 2025 [14]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 1.70%, down 41 basis points year-on-year [3][9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.06% as of Q4 2024, with improvements in various loan categories [33]. - The bank has increased its provision coverage ratio, maintaining a stable credit cost despite the pressure on profit growth [10][12]. Retail Business - The retail business is undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on reducing high-risk loans, leading to a decline in retail credit [2][12]. - The bank's retail assets under management (AUM) showed slight growth, benefiting from improved market conditions in Q4 2024 [11][37]. Credit Growth - New credit issuance in Q4 2024 was 5.7 billion CNY, indicating a slight recovery compared to previous quarters, although retail credit remains under pressure [20]. - The bank's overall credit growth is expected to remain weak in 2025, with ongoing efforts to reduce high-risk retail loans [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [7][26]. Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1]. - The bank's 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue down by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 was 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.2%, and revenue fell by 10.9%, but the decline rate has improved by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Other non-interest income grew significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for Q4 2024 was 1.70%, a significant decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate at the end of Q4 2024 were stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4][3]. - The true NPL generation rate improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.51, 0.48, and 0.45 for the years 2025-2027, with a target price of 14.00 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 17% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to decrease by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue declining by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 4.2%, while revenue is expected to decrease by 10.9%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Other non-interest income has increased significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 is 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4] - The real non-performing loan generation rate has improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 is -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.60x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has demonstrated significant reform and operational effectiveness, maintaining a strong focus on supporting agriculture and small enterprises, leading to a notable market presence in terms of deposits and loans [1][49] - The system's return on equity (ROE) consistently exceeds that of listed banks, indicating superior cyclical resilience despite a general decline in ROE across both sectors [2][50] - The growth in net profit for the Zhejiang Rural Credit System was 12.5% and 10.0% year-on-year for 2022 and 2023, respectively, driven primarily by rapid expansion and improved non-interest income [3][51] Summary by Sections Reform and Operational Effectiveness - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has evolved since the establishment of the first rural credit cooperative in 1952, culminating in the formation of the Zhejiang Rural Commercial Bank in 2022, which serves as a model for national reform [1][49] - By the end of 2024, the system's total deposits and loans reached 4.78 trillion yuan and 3.78 trillion yuan, respectively, with market shares of 20.88% and 15.92% [20] Profitability Analysis - The high ROE of the Zhejiang Rural Credit System is attributed to a higher net interest margin compared to the industry, although this advantage has been narrowing due to increased competition from larger banks [2][50] - The system's non-interest income has improved, particularly from investment returns, which have helped offset the pressure from declining net interest margins [3][50] Growth Potential - The Zhejiang Rural Credit System has maintained a loan growth rate exceeding 15%, supported by a strong demand from small and micro enterprises in a robust regional economy [38] - The system's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.85% and a provision coverage ratio of 486.7% as of the end of 2024, indicating a solid risk management framework [20][47] Asset Quality - The system's non-performing loan ratio has remained low, benefiting from a favorable economic environment and effective risk management practices [44] - Despite a slight increase in non-performing loans due to economic pressures, the overall asset quality remains superior compared to national averages [44][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment, recommending banks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank for long-term investment [53]