特朗普称8月1日起实施新关税最高税率或达70% 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税 率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九"从8月1日开始生效。 特朗普表示，从7月4日开始，美国将向多个国家发出信件，预计当天会有"10或12封"发出，更多信件将 在未来几天寄出。特朗普称，他预计这些信件将会在9日前全部送达。此前，特朗普将7月9日设为关税 谈判的最后期限。 对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从60%、70%到10%、20%不等"。特朗普称，"我们已 经完成了(信函的)最终文本，它将基本说明这些国家将要支付的关税是多少"。 美国有线电视新闻网报道说，目前尚不清楚哪些国家将收到这些信件，但特朗普曾点名"批评"包括欧盟 和日本在内的某些贸易伙伴在谈判中过于强硬。特朗普本周曾威胁要向"被宠坏的"日本发出一封信，将 其关税税率设定为高达35%。 今年4月，特朗普对美国的多数贸易伙伴征收了高达50%的"对等"关税。美国彭博社称，如果新关税比 所谓"对等关税"的税率更高，将增加美国经济的通胀风险。美国有线电视新闻网称，50%的关税曾在4 月导致美国股市陷入熊市区域， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. government, with rates potentially reaching as high as 70%, and highlights the responses from various countries, including the EU, Japan, and India, regarding their trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][2][4] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced that new unilateral tariffs will be communicated to trade partners starting July 4, with an expected implementation date of August 1 [1] - The proposed tariff rates could range from 10% to 70%, with Trump indicating that the final text of the letters detailing these tariffs has been completed [1] - The U.S. has previously imposed tariffs of up to 50% on many trade partners, which has raised concerns about inflation risks in the U.S. economy [2] Group 2: Responses from Trade Partners - The EU has expressed a strong commitment to defending its interests and is prepared to take countermeasures if negotiations with the U.S. fail [6][4] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of maintaining national interests, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors, and stated that Japan will not sacrifice agriculture in trade negotiations [8] - India has drawn two "red lines" in its negotiations with the U.S., focusing on the protection of its agricultural sector and dairy products, and plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports [9][11]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and various countries, focusing on the U.S. demands in the tariff negotiations and the potential outcomes as the July 9 deadline approaches [2][21]. Group 1: U.S. Demands in Tariff Negotiations - The U.S. aims to use "reciprocal tariffs" as leverage to increase government revenue, reduce fiscal spending, attract foreign investment, enhance supply chain security, and create a more favorable global operating environment for American companies [3]. - One of the primary demands is to expand U.S. exports, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors, which account for an average of 28% of total U.S. exports over the past five years [4][5]. - The U.S. government seeks to reduce overseas spending, particularly foreign aid, using tariffs as a tool to compel recipient countries to lessen their dependency on U.S. support [6]. - Another key demand is to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. to enhance supply chain resilience, especially in critical industries like semiconductors and medical supplies [9][10]. Group 2: Specific Negotiation Developments - The U.S. has made significant progress in negotiations with countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland, with expectations of reaching trade agreements or frameworks [15][21]. - The article highlights specific investments from various countries, such as Diageo's $415 million investment in Alabama and Japan's $44 billion investment in a natural gas project in Alaska, indicating active engagement in trade discussions [11]. - The U.S. has also been addressing discriminatory taxes imposed by other countries, particularly the digital services tax (DST), which targets major U.S. tech companies [12][13]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Future Negotiations - As the July 9 deadline approaches, the U.S. has shown a fluctuating stance on tariff increases, indicating that the outcome will depend on the substantive compromises made by both parties [14][21]. - Countries like the EU and Japan face significant uncertainties in negotiations due to disagreements over issues like the digital services tax and automotive tariffs [18]. - The article suggests that countries with large trade deficits with the U.S. may agree to purchase more American goods and ease market access in order to reach trade agreements [16][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States, with significant disagreements in sectors such as automobiles, steel, and agriculture, as the deadline approaches [1][2][4] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain American products in response to the U.S. tariffs on Indian automotive imports, indicating a strong stance from Indian officials [4][6] - The Indian government emphasizes that any trade agreement must be mutually beneficial and prioritize national interests over merely meeting deadlines [6] Group 2 - The U.S. has requested India to open its agricultural market, particularly for genetically modified crops, but India has resisted this due to concerns over food security and rural livelihoods [2][4] - The Indian delegation, led by Chief Negotiator Rajesh Aggarwal, has returned from Washington after discussions, with unresolved issues remaining in the automotive and agricultural sectors [2] - India has communicated to the World Trade Organization its intention to impose retaliatory tariffs, asserting that U.S. tariff actions violate WTO rules and significantly impact bilateral trade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding the implementation of new unilateral tariffs on trade partners, which are expected to take effect from August 1, with rates potentially ranging from 10% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1 - The U.S. government will begin sending letters to trade partners to set new unilateral tariff rates starting July 4, with an expectation that 10 to 12 letters will be sent on the same day [1]. - Trump indicated that the new tariffs could vary significantly, with rates potentially reaching as high as 60% to 70% [1]. - The letters are expected to be delivered by July 9, which is set as the deadline for tariff negotiations [1]. Group 2 - In April, Trump imposed "reciprocal" tariffs of up to 50% on most trade partners, which previously led to significant market reactions, including a bear market in U.S. stocks [2]. - If the new tariffs exceed the previous 50% rate, it could heighten inflation risks for the U.S. economy [2]. - A 70% tariff would surpass the previous levels and could lead to further market instability [2].

Core Viewpoint - India has notified the WTO of its intention to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports valued at $2.89 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Retaliatory Tariffs - India plans to impose tariffs equivalent to the $725 million in tariffs that the U.S. has levied on Indian products [1][5]. - The U.S. tariffs, which are 25% on certain automobiles and parts, are considered by India as safeguard measures that violate WTO agreements [4][5]. - India has previously notified the WTO of similar retaliatory measures in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, indicating a pattern of trade disputes [5]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - U.S.-India trade negotiations are ongoing, with a deadline approaching on July 9, which could lead to a 26% tariff on all Indian imports if no agreement is reached [2][7]. - Key points of contention in the negotiations include India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets, which are critical to its economy [7][8]. - The agricultural sector constitutes 16% of India's $3.9 trillion economy and employs nearly half of its 1.4 billion population, making it a politically sensitive issue [7][8]. Group 3: Market Access and Competition - India has historically excluded agriculture from free trade agreements, and opening its market could set a precedent for concessions to other trading partners [8]. - The average farm size in India is significantly smaller than in the U.S., which poses competitive challenges for Indian farmers against their American counterparts [8].

Group 1 - Global market tension has increased due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, impacting investor sentiment [1] - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.61% to 23787.45 points, France's CAC40 down 0.75% to 7696.27 points, and Italy's MIB down 0.80% to 39622.11 points [2][3] - The US stock market was closed for a public holiday, while the dollar index fell by 0.22% to 96.965, reflecting concerns over trade negotiations [2][3] Group 2 - India announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [4] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett advised selling stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high, citing risks associated with the recently passed "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill [5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, signed by President Trump, extends tax cuts and is expected to provide a short-term economic boost but poses long-term risks of high deficits [5] Group 3 - Significant capital outflows were observed in US mid-cap stocks, totaling $5.7 billion, marking the largest outflow since July 2023 [6] - The financial sector attracted $1.6 billion in inflows, the largest since January [6] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its interest rate stance, with a probability of over 95% for no change in July and about 70% for a rate cut in September [6] Group 4 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 1% and Ethereum nearly 3% [7][8] - Approximately 90,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market within 24 hours, amounting to $219 million, with the largest single liquidation on Binance-BTC valued at $2.72 million [9][10] Group 5 - Central banks are urged to monitor the vulnerabilities introduced by payment innovations, particularly regarding stablecoins and their potential impact on monetary trust and sovereignty [11] - The US Senate passed significant stablecoin legislation aimed at regulating dollar-pegged stablecoins, addressing concerns over their rapid rise and potential risks to financial stability [11][12]

Core Points - India has announced retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to $725 million, in response to U.S. tariffs on automobiles and auto parts [1][3] - The U.S. tariffs, which are 25%, are expected to impact Indian exports valued at $2.89 billion [1][3] - India has reserved the right to suspend concessions or other obligations due to the adverse effects of U.S. measures on its trade [1][4] Summary by Sections Retaliatory Tariffs - India plans to impose tariffs equivalent to the total amount of U.S. tariffs, which is $725 million [1][4] - The notification to the WTO indicates that India will suspend its obligations under the Safeguards Agreement [3][4] - The U.S. tariffs on imported passenger cars and light trucks, effective since May 3, 2025, are considered safeguards by India [3][5] Trade Negotiations - The deadline for U.S.-India trade negotiations is approaching, with a 90-day pause on tariffs ending on July 9 [6] - Key points of contention include India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets [6][7] - The agricultural sector constitutes 16% of India's $3.9 trillion economy, making it a sensitive area for negotiations [6] Market Access - The U.S. is urging India to allow imports of various products, including dairy, poultry, and grains, while India remains cautious about opening its markets [7] - India is willing to provide greater market access for certain products like dried fruits and apples but is hesitant regarding corn, soybeans, wheat, and dairy [7]

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间3日表示，将于4日开始向贸易伙伴发函，设定单边 关税税率，并称各国将从8月1日起开始支付新的关税。 今年4月初，特朗普政府推出了所谓的对等关税，对几乎所有贸易伙伴加征关税，具体税率依 据各国对美逆差而不等。 由于对等关税引发金融市场巨震，特朗普不得不采取缓和措施，将各国对等关税税率全部临时 下调至10%，期限为90天。美国在此期间和各国进行贸易谈判。 特朗普设定的贸易谈判最后期限为7月9日（下周三），他本周二表示，不考虑延长关税宽限 期。 特朗普周四对记者表示，大约"10到12封"通知函将在周五发出，接下来的几天还会陆续发出更 多。 "到9号就会全部发出，"特朗普说。"这些关税将从10%、20%到60%、70%不等。" 特朗普还称，新的关税将于8月1日生效。他说： "8月1日起，美国就将开始收到关税收入。" 据估算，如果7月9日美国将所有"对等关税"提高至威胁中的水平，美国进口商品的平均关税将 从特朗普上任前的约3%跃升至约20%，这将进一步加大美国经济面临的通胀与增长压力。 目前为止，特朗普政府已宣布与英国和越南达成协议。 在周四被问及是否还有更多协议时，特朗普表示：" ...