Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting that the sector outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week [2][3]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector index fell by 2.3%, while the CSI 300 index dropped by 3.8%, indicating a relative strength in the sector [2][3]. - Key companies such as Aopu Technology, Zhejiang Meida, and Supor showed gains, while companies like Joyoung, Beiqi, and Biyi experienced significant declines [4]. - Haier Robotics and INDEMIND signed a strategic cooperation agreement to advance the application of embodied robots in home settings [8]. - Biyi Electric received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a specific stock issuance [9]. Sales Data - In October, sales of cleaning appliances increased year-on-year, with robotic vacuum sales rising by 36.01% to 500,900 units and sales revenue increasing by 35.34% to 1.025 billion yuan [29]. - Sales of washing machines also saw a significant increase, with units sold rising by 60.11% to 429,300 and revenue increasing by 60.34% to 756 million yuan [29]. - Personal care products showed mixed results, with hairdryer sales slightly up by 0.31% but revenue down by 18.17%, while electric shaver sales rose by 29.12% with revenue up by 38.05% [34]. Industry Dynamics - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. The potential of leading white and black appliance companies characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth [2]. 2. Upstream core component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech fields such as robotics and data center cooling [2]. 3. The increasing penetration of new consumer categories like cleaning appliances presents significant growth opportunities [2]. Macro Economic Environment - As of November 21, 2025, the USD to CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0875, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 1.40% [40]. - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.90% [42].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer electronics market is undergoing adjustments due to fluctuations in upstream component prices, with the new device market affecting the second-hand recycling industry. Despite concerns, the performance of the second-hand electronics trading platform, Wanwu Xingsheng (Ai Huishou), remains strong, driven by a rise in gold prices and a significant increase in various recycling services [2][8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Wanwu Xingsheng reported total revenue of 5.15 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. The non-GAAP operating profit reached 140 million RMB, up 34.9%, marking a historical high. The non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, reflecting a 22.3% increase [2][3]. - The revenue structure shows that 1P (self-operated) product sales accounted for 4.73 billion RMB, a 28.7% year-on-year increase, making up 91.84% of total revenue [3][7]. Growth Drivers - The growth in the second-hand market is attributed to the early release of new devices due to chip iterations, which has boosted the trade-in market. The 1P to C revenue grew over 70%, and compliant refurbished product revenue surged by 102% [5][7]. - The gross margin for 1P business improved from 11.7% to 13.4% year-on-year, driven by enhanced capabilities in compliant refurbishment [5][7]. Service Expansion - The 3P (platform) service revenue was 420 million RMB, an 11.6% increase, primarily due to the growth in the Paipai business and multi-category recycling services [7]. - The average monthly profit contribution from multi-category services per store was approximately 7,000 RMB, with transaction volume growing by 95% year-on-year, contributing nearly 53 million RMB to service revenue [7]. Market Outlook - The penetration rate for second-hand mobile phone recycling in China remains low, providing significant growth potential compared to over 30% in developed economies. The second-hand device growth rate in China is notably higher than the global average [8]. - Despite the gradual withdrawal of national subsidies, which could negatively impact the new device market, the company remains optimistic about its limited exposure to these subsidies, particularly in high-end device sales [8][9]. Future Projections - For Q4 2025, Wanwu Xingsheng expects total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [9]. - The company aims to accelerate its international expansion, particularly in emerging markets, leveraging its platform capabilities to establish compliant export channels for second-hand devices [9].

Economic Outlook - The main theme for China's economy in 2025 is responding to changes, influenced by fluctuating external tariffs and internal asset revaluation, leading to unexpected volatility in wealth, supply, and investment[1] - For 2026, the focus shifts to continuity, with reduced uncertainty in macro changes and increased visibility in economic policies, emphasizing five key areas of transition[1] Key Areas of Transition - Policy continuity under the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining a proactive fiscal stance, with potential mid-year adjustments[1] - Supply-side focus on AI, transitioning from old to new economic drivers, with a shift in physical demand for new momentum[1] - Consumer incentives for upgrading, with ongoing subsidies and questions about the expansion of service consumption subsidies[1] - Wealth recovery through asset-liability management, with a slow bull market in stocks and a narrowing decline in real estate[1] - Price stability with improved inflation outlook, though short-term supply-demand imbalances persist, expecting CPI growth of 0.5% and PPI decline narrowing from -2.5% to -0.9%[1] Economic Growth Projections - Anticipated GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining compared to 2025, while investment growth is expected to rebound[1][11] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a deficit rate stable at around 4% and an increase in the deficit scale from CNY 5.66 trillion in 2025 to CNY 5.94 trillion in 2026[19][25] Risks and Challenges - High uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies could significantly impact China's exports and domestic economic conditions[1] - Domestic macroeconomic policy uncertainties may lead to unexpected changes, particularly in the real estate market influenced by sentiment and consensus expectations[1]

Core Insights - China's consumption market showed steady growth in October, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of products related to trade-in programs [6] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [6] - Demand for upgraded consumer goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [6] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service consumption showed good momentum, driven by holiday travel demand, with retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintaining over 10% growth [9] - Restaurant revenue grew by 3.8%, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points compared to September [9] - The inbound tourism sector remained robust, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, marking a 19.8% increase [9] Group 3: Rural and New Consumption - Rural consumption outpaced urban areas, with county-level consumption continuing to expand and lower-tier markets showing strong vitality [14] - New types of consumption grew rapidly, with sales of smart health devices increasing by over 20%, smart wearable devices by approximately 4%, and some first-level energy-efficient appliances by over 10% [14] - Sales of organic food also saw significant growth, exceeding 8% [14]

海南日报全媒体见习记者 陈明艳 记者 郭萃 用好以旧换新政策、打造"首"字经济、做优做强免税购物 海口消费市场有三热 11月16日晚，华灯初上，海口东坡老码头已是流光溢彩、人头攒动。璀璨灯火映照下的街区人气十足， 充满了浓厚的烟火气息。 近日，夜晚的海口东坡老码头人头攒动。海南日报全媒体见习记者 陈明艳 摄 "您好，现在购车可享受置换补贴，非常实惠……"11月15日至16日，"海口市以旧换新进园区"专场活动 在海口市复兴城举办。现场汇聚多家汽车品牌，推出多重购车福利，提供从试驾到政策咨询的一站式服务， 吸引众多市民驻足参与。除了汽车，活动范围更覆盖家电、家装、电动自行车、3C数码产品等品类，海口正 以真金白银的补贴，推动优惠政策走进千家万户。 政策红利持续释放，市民获得感实实在在。今年8月，海口市民杜女士通过"以旧换新"活动置换了一辆电 动自行车，"就在家门口买的，很方便，原价3100元，以旧换新补贴后2100元到手，实惠看得见，补贴申请流 程也很清晰。"如今，这份"看得见的实惠"正成为许多海口市民的共同体验。 商场端同样感受到了消费热潮。友谊·阳光城营运副总监刘丽君表示："今年以来，在以旧换新等国补政 策的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic consumption market in China has shown steady growth in October, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Summary by Categories Overall Consumption Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.63 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Retail Sales Breakdown - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of products related to trade-in programs [1] - Retail sales for communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Basic and Upgraded Goods Consumption - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is showing steady growth, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant potential being released in October [1] Group 1: Product Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with notable growth in trade-in related products [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales increased by 5.3%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters, and outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices rose by over 20%, smart wearable devices increased by approximately 4%, sales of certain first-level energy-efficient appliances grew by over 10%, and organic food sales increased by over 8% [1] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, with county-level consumption expanding and the lower-tier market showing strong vitality [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total of 3,040 bus sales in October 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 36.1%. For the period from January to October 2025, total bus sales reached 37,000 units, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in the bus industry, with strong long-term growth potential and a consistent high dividend payout capability, highlighting its investment value [2][10]. - The domestic market is experiencing growth in seated buses, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which is boosting the demand for new energy buses. In the overseas market, the company's globalization and high-end strategy are advancing, with exports enhancing profitability and supporting continuous performance improvement [10]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2025, the company sold 3,040 buses, down 5.6% year-on-year and down 36.1% month-on-month. The sales of medium and large buses were 2,462 units, down 11.5% year-on-year and down 37.3% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the company sold 37,000 buses, up 5.9% year-on-year, with medium and large bus sales at 30,000 units, down 1.6% year-on-year [2][4][10]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its direct sales and service model to improve service quality and efficiency. The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving the recovery of the bus market domestically. Internationally, the company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with the first overseas new energy commercial vehicle factory in Qatar expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an initial annual production capacity of 300 units, expandable to 1,000 units [10]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to have a full-year dividend of 1.5 yuan per share (before tax) in 2024, with a total payout of 3.32 billion yuan and a dividend rate of 80.7%. The expected mid-year dividend for 2025 is 0.5 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 57.2%. The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 and 2026 is 4.82 billion yuan and 5.62 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.8X and 12.7X [10].

Core Insights - The 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival has seen a significant shift from previous years, with a more subdued atmosphere and a focus on straightforward promotions rather than complex discount strategies [1][2][12] - The total sales for the 2025 Double Eleven reached 1,002.6 billion RMB, but the search volume for "discount strategies" has decreased significantly compared to the peak in 2018 [1][9] Historical Context - The Double Eleven event began in 2009 as a promotional strategy to clear inventory for Alibaba, initially generating 0.52 billion RMB in sales with only 27 brands participating [2][3] - By 2012, the event expanded significantly, with total sales reaching 19.1 billion RMB as multiple platforms joined the promotional efforts [2][5] - The years from 2014 to 2020 marked a period of exponential growth and increasingly complex promotional strategies, culminating in a peak sales figure of 498.2 billion RMB in 2020 [5][6] Changes in Consumer Behavior - The 2025 Double Eleven reflects a shift in consumer behavior from impulsive buying to more rational and needs-based purchasing decisions [6][12] - A report indicated that 77.7% of surveyed consumers prioritize genuine needs over low prices, with a significant focus on quality and long-term value [7][12] - The rise of "trade-in" programs has become a defining feature of the 2025 event, with a 150% increase in orders for trade-in products across all categories [9][10] Consumption Trends - High-end and smart products are becoming central to consumer preferences, with significant sales growth in AI smartphones and high-performance laptops [10][11] - Service-oriented consumption has surged, with categories like home services and online education seeing substantial growth during the event [11][12] Policy and Platform Evolution - The transition from impulsive to rational consumption is driven by a combination of consumer maturity, policy support, and platform evolution [12][15] - Government policies promoting trade-in programs have significantly boosted sales, with over 3.3 billion people applying for trade-in subsidies in 2025 [15][16] - E-commerce platforms are shifting focus from complex discount strategies to enhancing service quality and consumer experience, simplifying promotional rules to foster long-term customer relationships [16][17] Future Outlook - The ongoing evolution of Double Eleven is expected to deepen, with advancements in AI technology and continued emphasis on green consumption driving further changes in consumer behavior [18][19] - The event is transitioning from a focus on sheer sales volume to a model that emphasizes quality, rationality, and value, reflecting broader trends in the Chinese consumer market [19]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold transactions has significantly impacted the market, leading to decreased trading activity and increased price volatility as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Reaction - Following the implementation of the new tax policy on November 1, the trading volume in the Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market has noticeably decreased compared to September, with fewer customers visiting the stalls [1][4]. - The current gold price is reported at 1084 yuan per gram, which includes approximately 70 yuan per gram in taxes, resulting in a widened buy-sell price gap of 151 yuan per gram, compared to only 22 yuan three months prior [4][6]. Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between "investment" and "non-investment" gold, increasing the tax burden on non-investment transactions, which is expected to stabilize the market in the long run by addressing previous issues like false invoicing [1][6]. - The input tax for non-investment gold has decreased from 13% to 6%, leading to an effective tax burden increase of about 7 percentage points for small and medium-sized businesses in the Shui Bei market [6]. Industry Adaptation - In response to the new regulations, some merchants are promoting a "material exchange" settlement method, where customers provide old gold for processing, thus avoiding tax implications [7][9]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards "old-for-new" transactions, as consumers consider trading in old gold to offset the high prices of new jewelry, which may lead to a more vibrant secondary market [9]. Long-term Implications - The new tax structure is expected to enhance market transparency and encourage transactions through compliant channels like the Shanghai Gold Exchange, while reducing the scale of off-market transactions [6]. - The high gold prices combined with increased tax costs are altering consumer purchasing behavior, with many opting for investment-grade gold products or delaying purchases altogether [9].