1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - OECD predicts a slowdown in US growth rate to 1.6% by 2025, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD forecasts global growth rate at 2.9% for 2025, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The impact of tariffs has led to significant slowdowns in trade and investment, particularly in the US, where inflation and growth deceleration are expected to persist [1] Group 2: US Economic Impact - The average tariff rate on imported goods in the US has risen to over 15%, the highest level since 1938, contributing to increased domestic prices [1] - The inflation rate in the US is projected to rise to 3.2%, reflecting the effects of higher tariffs on consumer prices and purchasing power [1] Group 3: Regional Economic Projections - Countries closely linked to the US economy, such as Canada, Mexico, and Japan, are expected to face economic downturns, with Japan's growth rate projected to drop to 0.7% in 2025 [2] - China's growth outlook has been slightly adjusted, with consumption slowdown and real estate market adjustments being key factors, although government stimulus is expected to provide support [2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to maintain stable growth, with regional demand offsetting tariff impacts, supported by investments in defense and infrastructure [2]

物价方面，4月下旬以来物价略有上涨。各联邦储备区内对成本和物价今后将以更快速度上涨的预期广 泛存在。一些联邦储备区预计将出现显著或实质性成本增加。所有联邦储备区均报告，关税上调在给成 本和物价带来上涨压力。 根据美国"联邦储备法"，美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区，每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，也称"褐皮书"。 报告显示，自4月下旬以来，美国经济活动整体出现小幅下降，半数联邦储备区经济活动出现轻微或温 和下降。所有联邦储备区经济和政策不确定性均处于高位，导致企业和家庭决策变得迟疑和谨慎。制造 业活动轻度下降。消费者支出情况混杂不一，大多数联邦储备区出现小幅下降或没有变化，但一些联邦 储备区对预计受关税影响物品的支出增加。 报告说，整体而言，前景展望依然为轻度悲观和不确定，与前一次报告相比相对没有变化。 就业方面，大多联邦储备区就业状况与此前相比变化不大，但所有联邦储备区劳动力需求均有所下降， 体现在工作时间和加班减少、招聘暂停和计划裁员等。 新华社纽约6月4日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会4日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示，美国 经济和政策的不确定性处于高位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that high levels of economic and policy uncertainty are negatively impacting businesses and households, with tariff increases leading to rising costs and prices [1][2] - Economic activity has shown a slight decline since late April, with half of the districts reporting mild or moderate decreases in economic activity [1][2] - Consumer spending is mixed, with most districts experiencing slight declines or no change, although some districts have seen increased spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged from the previous report [2] - Employment levels have seen minimal changes, with most districts reporting stable employment conditions, but there are widespread discussions about hiring delays due to uncertainty [2] - Price levels have experienced moderate increases since late April, with widespread expectations of faster future price increases due to rising costs, particularly from tariff hikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The service sector activity in the U.S. fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year due to a sharp decline in demand and the impact of tariff increases on the economy, leading to accelerated price rises [1] Group 1: Service Sector Performance - The ISM service index dropped by 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, indicating a contraction as it fell below the neutral level of 50, which was below market expectations [1] - The most significant decline was observed in new orders, while the prices paid index reached its highest level since the end of 2022, highlighting the pronounced effects of increased import tariffs on demand and inflation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the ISM data, U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and the gains in the S&P 500 index narrowed [1] Group 3: Business Sentiment - Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM survey committee, noted that the overall index does not indicate severe contraction but reflects the uncertainty experienced by surveyed businesses [1] - Respondents reported challenges in forecasting and planning due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, leading to delays or reductions in orders until more clarity is achieved [1]

金十数据6月3日讯，4月美国工厂订单降幅超过预期，此前3月买家因关税大幅上调而加速采购。4月份 新订单从3月份的6,174亿美元降至5,946亿美元，降幅为3.7%。接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家预 计订单将下降3.3%。在3月，工厂订单增长了3.4%，因为买家在新关税的预期下加大了采购。4月未交 割订单金额大致持平，为1.409万亿美元。库存连续第七个月增长，达到5,868亿美元。 美国4月工厂订单量下降 3月因关税上调预期而大幅增长 ...

据经合组织测算，今年5月中旬美国对进口商品的实际关税税率从2024年的略高于2%上调至15.4%。佩 雷拉表示，这对美国来说已达到"1938年以来最高水平，而如果以4月9日宣布的关税水平来看将是19世 纪90年代以来最高"。 新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，将 2025和2026年全球经济增速均下调至2.9%。2日，该组织首席经济学家阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯·佩雷拉在报告 发布前的媒体吹风会上向法国媒体（接受法新社采访时）表示："由于关税，我们几乎下调了全球所有 经济体的经济增长预期……贸易受到了影响，尤其是消费和投资。" 佩雷拉3日在经济展望报告发布会上表示，当前全球经济经贸政策面临重大的、前所未有的不确定性， 对各项经济指标产生了深远影响。他提到，贸易的不确定性、美国贸易政策的剧烈变化是造成包括美 国、加拿大等国经济预期下调的重要原因。 经合组织将于3日至4日在巴黎举行部长级会议，美国和欧盟谈判代表也将在此次会议期间就关税问题进 行讨论。"我们有理由担心，保护主义和与贸易政策相关的不确定性将进一步加剧。"佩雷拉3日在部长 级会议开幕式上表示。 （文章来源：新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in consumer behavior in the U.S. as families increase savings in response to economic uncertainty and changing tariff environments [2][5][6] - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has shown signs of slowing down, with a notable decrease in the monthly growth rate of consumer spending from 0.7% in March to 0.2% in April [3][4] - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.9%, the highest level in a year, as consumers save a significant portion of their income growth [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is cautious about monetary policy, with recent data indicating a minimal increase in core inflation, which may not prompt a rate cut despite concerns over rising tariffs [3][4] - A survey indicates that a significant portion of high-income households is becoming more sensitive to prices, leading to reduced discretionary spending [5][6] - Many consumers are adopting cost-saving measures, such as cooking at home and changing service providers, reflecting a broader trend of increased savings and reduced spending [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which led to a significant increase in the gold market by nearly $28 on the same day [1] - Key economic data and policy events to watch this week include ADP employment data, non-farm payroll reports, public statements from Federal Reserve officials, and a crucial speech by Fed Chair Powell [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently under pressure below the key resistance level of $3325, with a bullish trend forming in the one-hour moving average system [3] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy involves taking short positions on gold if it rebounds to the $3325 resistance level, with a stop loss set at $3333 and a target range of $3310 to $3290 [3] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring the $3325 resistance level closely for potential trading opportunities [3]

港股黄金股集体走强，截至发稿，潼关黄金涨10.42%、赤峰黄金（600988）涨3.78%、珠峰黄金涨 3.24%、招金矿业涨0.91%。消息方面，关税问题再度引发市场担忧，比如美国总统特朗普表示，美国 将从6月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。受此消息刺激，COMEX黄金升至3330美 元。(智通财经) ...