Core Viewpoint - HSBC has downgraded the rating of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) from Hold to Reduce, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties impacting shipping demand in the second half of the year [1] Shipping Industry Summary - The average increase in shipping stocks covered by HSBC this year is 12% [1] - Concerns over tariffs have led to early shipments, which supported first-quarter earnings [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SFCI) rose by 73% in the second quarter due to tariff delays, but has since fallen by 17% from its peak due to weakening bookings [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to pressure shipping demand in the latter half of the year, with a focus shifting back to overcapacity and declining profitability [1] Company Summary - HSBC has lowered the target price for China COSCO Shipping Holdings from 14 HKD to 11 HKD [1] - The benefits of tariff delays are believed to be already reflected in the stock price, but uncertainties and overcapacity may exert pressure on profitability [1]

Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

随着以美联储为代表的海外发达经济开启降息周期，流动性充裕将对黄金形成利好;黄金具有抗通胀属 性，美国通胀预期升温背景下，黄金投资价值凸显，叠加关税不确定性仍存，增加黄金避险需求。另 外，全球地缘政治风险上升、大国博弈加剧，主要央行持续增持黄金储备等，都有望推动金价中枢进一 步上移。白银商品和金融属性共振，金银比存修复预期，银价具备更大向上弹性。 稀土供需格局边际改善，出口管制催化战略价值提升 "两新"政策驱动下，新能源汽车、家电等需求量有望增长，进而带来稀土永磁材料需求增加。人形机器 人落地加速，有望打开稀土永磁材料长期成长空间。国内稀土开采总量控制指标增速放缓，缅甸稀土矿 进口情况虽短期有所恢复，但雨季临近等因素导致后续进口情况仍不稳定，稀土供给端或难有增量。稀 土供需格局改善可期，稀土价格回升趋势有望延续。2025年4月，国家对中重稀土实施出口管制，有望 推动海外稀土价格上涨、国内稀土价格跟涨。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，2025年一季度基金对有色金属板块配置比例环比提升1.07个百分 点至4.59%，铜、黄金和铝成为增配重点品种。多重因素催化金价上涨，白银有望迎来补涨;稀土供需格 局边际改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each market, considering factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - price relationships [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Economic Data**: The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 23, with an operating rate of 1.40%. Meanwhile, 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on the same day [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: With stable macro - data but weak economic recovery momentum, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Given the relatively low Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to be cautious as there is unlikely to be a trending market [5][6]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.68%, 0.74%, 0.64%, and 1.01% respectively [7]. - **Economic Data**: As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar and wind power generation capacity increased by 56.9% and 23.1% respectively. From January to May, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year, while power grid investment increased by 19.8% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 781.3, up 0.35%, and the night - session closing price was 786.1. The silver main contract closed at 8,770, up 1.22%, with a night - session closing price of 8809 [10]. - **Economic Data**: The preliminary values of the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in June were 49.4, 50.0, and 50.2 respectively [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the uncertainty of tariffs, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Commodities Steel - related - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand relationship in the real estate industry and the entry into the off - season are suppressing prices. However, due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [12][13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and its valuation is relatively high among black - series varieties. Investors can consider buying at low levels and exit on rebounds, with a stop - loss if the previous low is broken. A light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance. The market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, the decline may stop, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [17][18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon declined. The supply is still high while the demand is weak. In the short term, the oversupply situation may continue, and the price is under pressure. Investors can consider low - value call options if the spot losses increase significantly [20][21]. Energy - related - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The market sentiment has eased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has increased its net long positions in crude oil futures and options. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling, with a relatively strong trend. The reduction of Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the uncertainty of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are positive factors. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [25][26][27]. Rubber - related - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize and rebound. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber remained flat, while the 20 - grade rubber main contract declined. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is relatively stable. The market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [30][32]. Chemical - related - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The production is expected to decrease, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The market is in a bottom - oscillating state [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea declined. The large - scale agricultural seasonal demand is basically over, and the industrial demand is weak. However, considering the inventory reduction, it is advisable to take a bullish view [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fluctuated and adjusted. The supply - demand may weaken, but the cost is expected to drive the price. It is advisable to operate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is strong. It is advisable to participate at low levels and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined. The supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The geopolitical situation may reduce supply, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to take a cautiously bullish view and pay attention to inventory and import changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. It is advisable to go long at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost is strong, and the supply will decrease due to equipment maintenance. The demand is improving. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly [43][44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass rose slightly. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market lacks positive support. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly, and short - position holders should control their positions [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda rose. The production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position holders should control their positions [46][47]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, although the domestic mechanical pulp market has a slight upward trend [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply remains high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [49]. Agricultural - related - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak downward trend. The overseas macro - environment suppresses the price, but the raw material supply and low global inventory provide support. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long [50][51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption data is good. The price is expected to fluctuate [52]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The good weather in the US Midwest is beneficial to soybean growth. The inventory of both is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [54][56]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil closed up. The domestic inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures declined. The domestic inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider opportunities to go long on the ratio of oil to meal [59][60]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and the domestic inventory is low. It is advisable to go long in batches [64][66][67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures declined. The new - year production is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [68][69]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the weight - reduction of large - scale farms and consider positive arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [70][72]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs remained flat. The supply is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is advisable to try shorting on rebounds [73][75][76]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose slightly, while the main contract of corn starch declined. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and the policy is favorable. It is advisable to wait and see for corn starch, which follows the corn market [76][77][78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of log rose. The market has no obvious driver, and the spot price is weak. The housing transaction has slightly improved, and it is necessary to be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances in the 07 contract [79][80][81].

联储官员GOOLSBEE：如果关税带来的不确定性消除，应该继续降息。(新浪财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Tongcheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook for both the company and its convertible bonds, indicating strong operational performance and financial stability [1][3]. Company Overview - Tongcheng New Materials Group was established in 2008 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2018, with a focus on the chemical industry [10]. - As of March 2025, the company has total assets of 87.03 billion yuan and equity of 35.23 billion yuan [10][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 32.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.10%, and a profit of 5.50 billion yuan, up 28.85% from the previous year [6][17]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.76% increase year-on-year [6][17]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.16 percentage points in 2024, driven by a decrease in raw material prices [17][20]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the specialty rubber additives sector, with its production accounting for 28.99% of the domestic total in 2024 [5][13]. - In the semiconductor photoresist market, the company has expanded its production capacity to approximately 9,000 tons per year as of March 2025, with substantial revenue growth in this segment [5][14]. Operational Highlights - The company has seen an increase in production and sales volume of rubber additives due to recovering demand, with production capacity utilization rates improving [5][20]. - The company’s semiconductor photoresist business generated revenue of 303 million yuan in 2024, a 50.43% increase year-on-year, while the display panel photoresist segment achieved 330 million yuan, up 26.80% [5][14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the low utilization rate of biodegradable materials due to market demand issues and high fixed costs [6][19]. - A significant portion of the raw materials for photoresist products is imported, leading to potential supply chain vulnerabilities due to global tariff uncertainties [6][19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the release of capacity from its ongoing photoresist projects, which may enhance production capabilities [5][6]. - The company’s ability to maintain its competitive edge will depend on its capacity to innovate and adapt to market changes, particularly in the photoresist sector [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but indicated a hawkish stance due to revised economic forecasts and increased inflation concerns [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates in 2023 after a 100 basis point cut last year, reflecting a cautious approach towards monetary policy [1] - The economic projections from the Fed have shifted towards stagflation, with lowered GDP growth expectations and increased unemployment and inflation forecasts [1] - The dot plot indicates no change in the median number of rate cuts for the year, but the number of committee members favoring no cuts has increased, suggesting a more cautious outlook [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the resilience of the labor market despite a slowdown, indicating that the Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation risks stemming from tariffs [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting supply chains and price stability, necessitating a restrictive policy stance to manage potential inflationary pressures [2] Group 3: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations suggest that the first rate cut could occur in September if inflation remains weak in the coming months [2] - With Powell's term ending in May 2024 and potential changes in Fed leadership, there is speculation that a more dovish approach may lead to significant rate cuts next year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For bonds, expect no trend - driven market and maintain caution [5]. - For stocks, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [8]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to decline, and consider short - selling on rebounds [10]. - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss [12]. - For coking coal and coke, consider short - selling on rebounds [14]. - For ferroalloys, the supply may exceed demand in the short term, and bulls should be cautious [16]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to rise in the short term [19]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [22]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [23]. - For natural rubber, look for long - buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [26]. - For PVC, the mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. - For urea, take a bullish view in the short term [30]. - For PX, consider cautious operations at low levels and pay attention to crude oil and the Middle - East situation [31]. - For PTA, consider going long at low levels and focus on the Middle - East situation [33]. - For ethylene glycol, take a cautiously bullish view and monitor port inventory and imports [34]. - For staple fiber, consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [36]. - For bottle chips, consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [39]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is loose, and long - position holders should control their positions [42]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure, and the domestic chemical pulp market shows a weak upward trend [43]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are hard to reverse [46]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract [48]. - For tin, prices are expected to oscillate [48]. - For nickel, prices are expected to oscillate [49]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [51]. - For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [53]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [55]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [58]. - For sugar, consider batch - buying [61]. - For apples, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [63]. - For live pigs, consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [65]. - For eggs, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. - For corn and starch, the corn market has support but faces pressure, and starch follows the corn market; adopt a wait - and - see strategy [68]. - For logs, beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [71]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures close down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to be cautious [5]. Stocks - Stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange introduced an ESG action plan. Despite weak recovery momentum and tariff uncertainties, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long run, and going long on stock index futures is considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures declined. Most central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, and the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue. Going long on gold futures is considered [8]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are suppressing prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices may continue to fall. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [10]. Iron Ore - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The decline in iron - water production and the increase in imports have weakened the supply - demand pattern. The price is at a relatively high valuation. Buying at low levels and setting stop - loss are recommended [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures prices showed mixed performance. The market is in an oversupply situation. Coke production is decreasing, and prices may continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds is considered [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese and silicon ferroalloys rose slightly. Manganese ore shipments increased, and port inventory rebounded. Steel production declined, and ferroalloy supply may exceed demand in the short term [16]. Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose. Fund managers increased net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Due to geopolitical risks, prices are expected to rise in the short term [18][19]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose strongly following crude oil. Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the market is uncertain. Going long on the main contract is considered [20][22]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract rose. Supply pressure eased slightly, and the cost is expected to rebound, driving the market to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate [23]. Natural Rubber - Futures prices rose slightly. Supply was affected by rain, and demand was weak. After the market stabilizes, look for long - buying opportunities [24][26]. PVC - The main contract rose. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is in the off - season. The mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. Urea - The main contract declined slightly. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by agricultural needs and overseas supply tightening. A short - term bullish view is taken [28][30]. PX - The main contract rose. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost was supported by rising crude oil prices. Prices may rise but with limited upside. Cautious operations at low levels are recommended [31]. PTA - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand increased, and the cost was supported by crude oil. Consider going long at low levels [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - The main contract rose. Supply was affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inventory decreased slightly. Take a cautiously bullish view and monitor imports [34]. Staple Fiber - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand weakened, and the cost was supported. Consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [35][36]. Bottle Chips - The main contract rose. The cost was supported, supply decreased due to maintenance, and demand improved. Consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. Soda Ash - The main contract rose. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [38][39]. Glass - The main contract rose. There is no obvious supply - demand driver. The market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. Caustic Soda - The main contract declined slightly. Supply may increase, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is loose. Long - position holders should control their positions [41][42]. Pulp - The main contract rose. Downstream product production declined, and demand was weak. The domestic chemical pulp market showed a weak upward trend [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract declined slightly. Supply remains high, demand slows down, and the supply - demand surplus persists. Prices are hard to reverse [46]. Copper - Shanghai copper declined. Affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's decision, prices oscillated. Although there are some positive factors, the market is cautious. Consider going long on the main contract [47]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from mines is tight, and consumption is good. The price is expected to oscillate between the tight supply and the loose expectation [48]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Futures prices rose. Soybean crushing increased, and inventory accumulated. Brazilian soybeans had a bumper harvest, and the cost increased. Be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [50][51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil was nearly flat. Exports increased, but demand from major markets was weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [52][53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed planting may decrease. Domestic imports increased, and inventory accumulated. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [54][55]. Cotton - Domestic cotton oscillated. Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but oil prices may support cotton. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [56][58]. Sugar - Domestic sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the conflict in the Middle - East may affect supply. Domestic inventory is low. Consider batch - buying [58][61]. Apples - Apple futures oscillated. The final output will be clear after bagging. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [62][63]. Live Pigs - The price declined slightly. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak after the holiday. Consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [63][65]. Eggs - The price rose. Egg production is expected to increase, and it is the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. Corn and Starch - Corn and starch futures rose slightly. Supply and demand are approaching balance, but there is pressure on the upside. Starch follows the corn market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [67][68]. Logs - The main contract was flat. The number of incoming ships increased, and inventory changed. The market has no obvious driver. Beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [69][71].

【导读】中外机构：美联储年内料降息1～2次，关税不确定性增加美联储决策难度 威灵顿投资管理固定收益基金经理Brij Khurana称，鲍威尔表示到夏末才能更好地评估这一影响，这显 示他试图避免在7月降息。 关税不确定性增加美联储的决策难度 巴克莱分析师认为，由于美联储会后声明几乎没有提供关于未来政策路径的指导，市场参与者将重点放 在当天发布的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）以及美联储主席的新闻发布会上。 巴克莱表示，鲍威尔的表态略显鹰派，暗示没有必要急于降息。在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔透 露称，关税的增加"可能会推高价格并拖累经济活动"，并预计到今年夏季价格压力将加剧，不过他强调 这是一个复杂且高度不确定的过程。 美东时间6月19日，美联储公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）在议息会议后宣布，维持联邦基金利率 区间在4.25%至4.50%之间。这是美联储连续第四次会议决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 美联储议息会议传递了哪些重要信号？其未来货币政策走向如何？哪些因素将影响美联储未来的货币政 策？资产应如何配置？就此，中外资机构展开热议。 年内可能降息1～2次 中银香港资产管理首席投资总监阮卓斌认为，根据点阵图最 ...

尽管多数官员仍预期2025年将降息两次或更多，但分歧加剧反映出在经济信号混杂的背景下，美联储维 持审慎立场。 鲍威尔记者会：数据导向，关税风险引关注 在会后记者会上，鲍威尔重申点阵图并非承诺，仅是"较弱的信号"，未来政策路径将完全依据经济数据 调整。 鲍威尔特别指出当前通胀面临上行风险，强调两大担忧： 美联储在周三如市场预期般维持利率不变。然而，政策制定者仍暗示2025年可能降息，不过美联储主席 鲍威尔提醒市场不要对这一预期过于乐观，指出关税与通胀相关的不确定性依然存在。 经济预测摘要 由于按兵不动已被市场充分定价，焦点转向了6月的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）。最新的点阵图显示， 美联储仍预计在2025年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。然而，内部观点依然分歧明显——部分官员甚至 预计明年不会降息，凸显了路径的不确定性。 6月点阵图| 来源：美联储 美国股市周三小幅收低，反映出投资者对美联储谨慎立场的复杂解读。尽管维持利率不变在预期之内， 但政策语气显示出更多耐心与不确定性，令股市略有承压。 与此同时，美元获得一定支撑，投资者解读为：即便未来可能降息，美联储在通胀与经济放缓之下可能 将维持"更久的高利率"。 ·与关 ...