1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High - level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High - level oscillation [3] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidation [4] - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Palm oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Soybean meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Weak - side oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [6] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [8] - MEG: Wait - and - see [8] - PR: Wait - and - see [8] - PF: Wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the black industry, short - term steel industry growth expectations still exist. There are opportunities in the contract operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand. In the financial market, the market has rebounded continuously, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly and long positions in Treasury bonds lightly. For precious metals, the logic driving the gold price increase has not completely reversed, and short - term factors may cause fluctuations. In the agricultural and light industrial products markets, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. Supply increases slightly, and steel mills' production drive is strong. There are production - reduction expectations in the later period. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine over - production inspections tighten supply, and transportation is disrupted. The market is in a slightly tight supply - demand state, and prices are likely to rise [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Tangshan's independent steel - rolling enterprises' production restrictions are beneficial to finished products. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Glass**: The market's speculation sentiment cools down, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly. It is in the adjustment stage [2]. - **Soda ash**: In the adjustment stage, with the market's trading logic returning to the fundamentals [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and risk appetite has improved. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates have rebounded, and Treasury bond prices have fallen. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing. The logic of the gold price increase has not reversed. Short - term factors such as employment data and tariff policies affect the price. Pay attention to the latest CPI data [3][4]. Agricultural and Light Industrial Products Markets - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [4]. - **Logs**: Demand has increased slightly, supply pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Oils and fats**: Supported by raw material costs, external markets, and demand recovery, they are expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to weather and production - sales conditions [4]. - **Meal products**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and prices are under pressure. In the long term, there are some supporting factors. They are expected to oscillate strongly [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to decline slightly [6]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap has narrowed. With the improvement of supply - side factors, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [6][8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are in a state of wait - and - see, with their prices mainly affected by cost and supply - demand changes [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong is expected to revolutionize digital currency, but the stringent licensing requirements have dampened market sentiment and limited the number of approved issuers to a few local financial institutions and banks, delaying the issuance of licenses until early 2026 [1][2][6]. Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong regulatory framework for stablecoins emphasizes strict compliance and security, prioritizing the prevention of financial crimes such as money laundering and ensuring that issuers can identify users and track transactions [2][3][4]. - Non-local companies, including mainland enterprises, can apply for stablecoin licenses, but they must comply with both Hong Kong and mainland regulations, particularly regarding data security [2][3]. Market Implications - The high barriers to entry for internet giants like JD.com and Ant Group create a "high wall" that favors traditional financial institutions with established compliance capabilities, making it difficult for innovative platforms to participate [4][6]. - The stringent requirements for stablecoin issuance, including high reserve requirements and user identification protocols, position Hong Kong's stablecoin as a regulated digital currency rather than a decentralized cryptocurrency [4][5]. Strategic Objectives - Hong Kong's move to introduce stablecoins is seen as a defensive strategy to mitigate the dominance of the US dollar in global finance while also seeking to enhance its own position in the future monetary system [6][7]. - The regulatory approach aims to balance financial stability and innovation, although it may limit user privacy and flexibility, making it challenging for Hong Kong stablecoins to compete with established dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of digital currencies, particularly focusing on the complexities of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins in the current financial landscape [2] - It emphasizes the philosophical reflections on the essence of money, financial order, and the trajectory of human civilization in the context of digital currency [2] Group 1: Technological Reassessment and Monetary Essence - The book highlights the decentralized nature of blockchain technology as a solution for currency issuance, presenting an ideal currency model that eliminates the need for trust in third-party institutions [4] - It critiques Bitcoin's volatility and its classification as a digital asset rather than a true "digital currency," pointing out its limitations within the traditional monetary framework [4] - The text reflects on the historical significance of this digital experiment, suggesting that it challenges existing monetary and financial systems [4] Group 2: Regulatory Dynamics and Institutional Reconstruction - The article notes the coexistence of "regulatory competition" and "regulatory arbitrage" in the global regulatory framework, with various countries adopting different strategies for digital currency regulation [7] - It discusses the unique "dual firewall" mechanism of China's digital yuan and the contrasting approaches taken by the EU and the US regarding stablecoin regulation [7] - The text suggests that regulatory technology (RegTech) is lagging behind technological innovation, creating new governance challenges [8] Group 3: Paradigm Revolution in Civilizational Evolution - The digitization of currency is reshaping the foundation of social contracts, with blockchain-based identity systems and token economies monetizing human activities [10] - The article raises concerns about the digital divide and the potential for new class divisions within the crypto space, questioning the implications for financial inclusion [10] - It explores the dual spiral characteristic of civilization evolution, where digital and physical worlds increasingly intertwine, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like quantum computing [11] Group 4: Dynamic Balance and Future Considerations - The book presents a vision of a future characterized by a dynamic balance between decentralized technology and centralized regulation, efficiency and risk prevention, and monetary sovereignty and global cooperation [12] - It emphasizes the need for an open mindset to navigate the uncertainties posed by technological advancements and regulatory frameworks [12] - The article concludes by reflecting on the historical evolution of money and the potential for digital currencies to disrupt traditional financial systems, urging a balanced approach to efficiency and fairness in the new monetary civilization [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rolled steel: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3][6] - Silver: High-level oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8][10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - In the black industry, short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. There are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - In the financial industry, the market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The government bond market has declined, and long positions in government bonds should also be held lightly [3] - In the precious metals industry, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - In the light industry and agricultural products industries, the supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate. The fundamentals of logs are favorable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range. The supply of livestock products is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures, with prices expected to fall [4][6][7] - In the soft commodities and polyester industries, the supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand shows a differentiated trend. The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand, and the market is in a wait-and-see state [8][10] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. The total global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased significantly. Iron ore fundamentals are currently acceptable, but there are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine overproduction inspections have tightened the supply of coking coal, and transportation disruptions have affected the arrival of coke at steel mills. The black futures market is oscillating strongly, and the coke spot market is slightly short of supply. Coke prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [2] - **Rolled steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. In the off-season, steel demand has decreased, and the overall demand has a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Steel market supply and demand pressure may increase [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. Glass production capacity is stable, and downstream inventory has room to replenish, but demand has not recovered. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **Government bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the government bond market has declined. Long positions in government bonds should be held lightly [3] Precious Metals Industry - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The currency, financial, and risk-hedging attributes of gold all support its price. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - **Silver**: The short-term employment data in the US is weak, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, boosting the price of silver. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products Industries - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off-season. The supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The demand for logs has increased slightly, and the supply center has shifted downward. The supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - **Oils and fats**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The import volume of soybeans in China is high, and the inventory of oils and fats is at a high level. The demand is warming up. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [4][6] - **Livestock products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. High temperatures restrict consumption, and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises is decreasing. Pig prices are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industries - **Natural rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and raw material prices have risen. The demand for tires shows a differentiated trend, and inventory has decreased. Natural rubber prices are expected to remain firm [8] - **Polyester products**: The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand. The market is in a wait-and-see state, with prices mainly fluctuating with cost [8][10]

此外，美联储理事库克担忧7月就业报告预示经济转折点。在波士顿联储研讨活动中，他指出数据修订 有转折特征。上周数据显示劳动力市场明显降温，7月非农新增仅7.3万，前两月数据大幅下修近26万， 失业率微升至4.2%。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.4%，降息25个基点的概率为93.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为64%。 据消息，当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普宣布将针对芯片及半导体产品征收近乎100%的高额关税， 并承诺若在美国本土生产则免税。同日，知情人士称，特朗普告知欧洲领导人其计划下周与俄罗斯总统 普京举行双边会晤，之后还将安排美、俄、乌三方会谈，且不邀请其他欧洲国家代表参与。白宫证实俄 方有会面意愿，特朗普对此持开放态度，但地点未定。随着8月8日俄乌和谈截止日期逼近，美国加大对 俄施压力度，除即将实施更多二级制裁外，特朗普还以印度采购俄油为由，签署行政命令对其输美商品 加征25%关税，此举被视为向俄施压的又一举措。 【黄金期货行情表现】 8月7日，沪金主力暂报783.68元/克，跌幅达0.07%，今 ...

Group 1: Palantir's Performance - Palantir's Q2 revenue surpassed $1 billion for the first time, marking a 48% year-over-year growth, with a net profit of $327 million [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $4.142 billion and $4.150 billion, significantly exceeding previous expectations [2] - Palantir's growth is attributed to the dual benefits of AI and government contracts, with its AI tools being integral to U.S. military operations [2] Group 2: Tesla's Legal Challenges - Tesla faces a collective lawsuit from shareholders due to a Robotaxi testing incident that resulted in a 6.1% stock price drop over two days [5] - The lawsuit accuses Tesla and Elon Musk of exaggerating the effectiveness of their autonomous driving technology [5] - The incident highlights three major issues with Tesla's autonomous driving technology: inadequate handling of complex road conditions, regulatory compliance concerns, and weak public trust [5] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Developments - Coinbase announced a $2 billion convertible bond issuance to repurchase stock or pay down debt, but reported Q2 revenue of $1.5 billion, which was below expectations, leading to a 19.65% stock price drop [6] - In contrast, XBIT decentralized exchange is gaining traction with its "trustless" architecture, offering advantages such as cross-chain swaps and low fees [6][7] - XBIT's features include zero slippage for cross-chain exchanges, smart routing for optimal liquidity, and staking options that provide an 18% annual yield [7][8] Group 4: XBIT's Market Position - XBIT's decentralized platform is positioned as a resilient option amid regulatory pressures, as it does not require KYC or account restrictions, making it a safe haven for investors [9][12] - The platform's architecture allows users to navigate multiple blockchain ecosystems seamlessly, akin to messaging on social media [12] - XBIT is seen as a competitive "trading engine" in the evolving landscape of traditional finance and digital assets, especially as the demand for decentralized solutions grows [12]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of stablecoins may exacerbate the shortage of U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global financial stability, and China should promote its bonds as a global safe asset to enhance the international status of the Renminbi and facilitate its internationalization [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are designed to improve upon cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but they fail to meet the three essential characteristics of money: singularity, elasticity, and integrity [1][4][11]. - The singularity of stablecoins is compromised as users may question the actual status of the underlying collateral during transactions [12]. - Elasticity is lacking in stablecoins since they do not create new liquidity but rather depend on existing liquidity [12]. - The integrity of stablecoins is also in doubt, as they are often used for illegal activities, undermining their credibility as a monetary tool [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The growth of stablecoins increases the demand for U.S. Treasury securities, which are already in short supply, leading to higher prices and potential financial instability [2][8]. - The situation mirrors historical banking failures due to the scarcity of underlying safe collateral, highlighting a modern version of the "Triffin Dilemma" where global demand for safe assets conflicts with the U.S.'s ability to provide them [2]. - The need for a global safe asset is pressing, and China is encouraged to position its bonds as such to alleviate the shortage and bolster the Renminbi's international role [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The emergence of stablecoins is a response to the inefficiencies of traditional financial systems, particularly in cross-border payments and serving unbanked populations [8]. - The operational mechanism of stablecoins is similar to money market funds, which promise 1:1 redemption based on underlying safe assets like U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - However, the stability of these assets is not guaranteed, as evidenced by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which held significant amounts of U.S. Treasury securities but faced liquidity crises due to market volatility [10].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's significant shift in attitude towards cryptocurrency during the 2024 presidential election, actively courting the crypto community and becoming the first major party candidate to accept cryptocurrency donations [2][3] Fundraising and Donations - In Q2 2024, Trump's campaign committee raised approximately $3 million through crypto assets, with around $2 million coming from 19 individual donors in the crypto sector [3] - Notable donations included $1 million in Bitcoin from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, $845,000 in Ethereum from Jesse Powell, and $300,000 in XRP from Stuart Alderoty [3] - Trump's fundraising efforts included a private event at the Nashville Bitcoin conference, raising up to $21 million in a single event [3] - The total contributions from the crypto industry are reported to be in the tens of millions to potentially billions, making it a significant portion of corporate donations for 2024 [3] Policy Stance - Trump emphasized ending the Biden administration's crackdown on the crypto industry and pledged to make the U.S. a global leader in cryptocurrency [4] - He supports stablecoins pegged to the dollar, opposes government-issued central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and promises to protect self-custody wallet users from regulatory interference [4] - Trump's campaign image is shaped by a "market freedom, anti-regulation" stance, making the crypto community a crucial part of his political base [4] Regulatory Changes - After taking office, Trump began to implement his campaign promises, reassessing and adjusting some of the Biden administration's regulatory measures on crypto [4] - The SEC delayed the implementation of certain stablecoin issuance regulations, positively impacting market sentiment and leading to price increases for some digital assets [4] - The U.S. Department of Energy issued new guidelines encouraging the use of renewable energy for Bitcoin mining, resulting in U.S. publicly listed Bitcoin miners achieving a historical high of approximately 31.5% of global network hash rate by June [4] Appointments and Organizational Changes - Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair and nominated Paul S. Atkins, a proponent of loose regulation, as SEC chair [5] - The establishment of the "Digital Assets and AI Affairs Office" led by David Sacks aims to coordinate crypto policy and legislation [5] - The SEC formed a "Crypto Assets Special Working Group" under the leadership of Hester Peirce, known as "Crypto Mom" [5] Personal Involvement and Market Impact - Trump's personal and familial involvement in the crypto space includes the launch of personal tokens, TRUMP and MELANIA coins, which saw significant price increases [6] - His son, Donald Trump Jr., has participated in Web3 and NFT events and invested in several blockchain projects [7] - Trump's actions to influence Federal Reserve personnel and policies, including calls for rapid interest rate cuts, may create short-term benefits for the crypto market but raise concerns about the independence of the Fed and long-term market stability [7][8] Conclusion - Trump's "crypto vision" is advancing, but the interplay between industry and political power carries complex political costs and financial risks [9]

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the current optimal timing for native cryptocurrency exchanges to go public, highlighting the combination of user education and the lagging traditional financial institutions [5] - User education has significantly improved, creating a multiplier effect that benefits the market [5] - Traditional financial institutions, including major internet brokers and traditional bank trading desks, have not yet caught up, presenting an opportunity for growth [5] Group 2 - The discussion reflects a contradiction in the industry, where there is a push for decentralization and regulatory compliance simultaneously [5] - The essence of blockchain as an anonymous incentive system is acknowledged, yet the importance of regulatory frameworks and KYC (Know Your Customer) compliance is also emphasized [5]

Group 1 - The global cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, with Ethereum's price undergoing a substantial correction, leading to a chain reaction in the market [1] - In the past 24 hours, Ethereum's daily liquidation volume reached $262 million, far exceeding other major crypto assets, indicating increasing market divergence regarding its short-term outlook [1] - The recent liquidation wave is primarily driven by concerns over inflation risks and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction following the announcement of new tariff policies by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term price pressures, Ethereum's recognition among long-term investors continues to rise, with over $5 billion in inflows into Ethereum ETFs in July, showing strong institutional confidence in its technological foundation and application prospects [3] - The completion of the Pectra technology upgrade has improved Ethereum's network fees, simplified staking, and enhanced support for smart wallets, reinforcing its value proposition as an infrastructure [3] - Market analysts suggest that the current liquidation wave is a healthy strategic cooling, with funds rotating from speculative assets to safer havens, indicating a planned pause rather than a crisis response [3] Group 3 - In the current market environment, the choice of trading platforms is crucial, with decentralized exchanges like XBIT providing a safer and more autonomous trading environment compared to traditional centralized exchanges [5] - XBIT allows users to trade without cumbersome KYC verification, geographic restrictions, or lengthy approval processes, ensuring users have full control over their private keys and assets [5] - The increasing market volatility highlights the value of XBIT's decentralized features, which ensure transparency and security in trading, making it a preferred choice for investors during turbulent times [5] Group 4 - The dominance of Bitcoin in the market has decreased from a peak of 65.1% on June 27 to 61.1%, while Ethereum's market share has increased to 11.4%, indicating a shift in investor interest towards Ethereum and alternative cryptocurrencies [7] - This capital rotation suggests growing interest in Ethereum ETFs and on-chain activities, as well as alternative Layer-1 chains, DeFi, and infrastructure tokens, potentially signaling the onset of an altcoin season [7] - XBIT's technological advantages and user-friendly interface cater to various types of investors, providing tools that adapt to market changes, thus enhancing user experience and meeting evolving demands in the maturing cryptocurrency market [7]