Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability [6]. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries continued to expand. Investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - Asset views: With policy announcements, risk appetite has improved, and a balanced allocation strategy is maintained. Liquidity improvement and eased Sino - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets, especially in technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, short - term policy benefits have been fully priced, and the stock index may fluctuate. In the medium term, the equity market has upward momentum. A "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions in October aimed at risk management, balancing growth and liquidity stability [6]. - Domestic: Policy orientation emphasized economic construction. Although the manufacturing PMI declined in October, the economy showed resilience with investment repair [6]. - Assets: A balanced allocation strategy is suggested. Non - ferrous metals, black commodities, bonds, and precious metals have different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [7]. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Due to geopolitical and economic - trade easing, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, and are expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season has passed, and there is no upward driving force. It is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With limited fundamental support, the price is under pressure. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Iron ore: Port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. - Coke: Cost support is strengthening, and a third price increase may be implemented. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Coking coal: Supply is tight, and the spot price is rising. It is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Due to renewed trade frictions, the copper price has declined in the short term. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise with fluctuations [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persists, and it is expected to move sideways [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and it is expected to move sideways [9]. - Asphalt: With the decline of crude oil and rebar prices, it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply surplus expectations suppress the price, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: After rising and then falling, it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. - Protein meal: The crushing profit is being repaired, and it is expected to move sideways [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation adjustment [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [4] - CSI 300: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bullish outlook [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - MPOB oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with the pattern of oversupply difficult to reverse. However, short - term prices have support due to potential macro - sentiment improvement [2] - The coking coal market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns from safety inspections, with the core contradiction being the low profit of steel mills [2] - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate and adjust, with the market awaiting policy boosts [2] - The glass market is in a weak state, with demand dragged down by the real - estate sector, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The stock index market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - The precious metal market, especially gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at high levels, influenced by factors such as central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] - The log market is expected to be bullish, with improved demand, rising cost expectations, and potential optimization of delivery rules [5] - The pulp market is expected to consolidate at the bottom due to weak cost support and poor demand [5] - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [5] - The粕类 market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to seasonal supply pressure and weak demand [5][8] - The live - pig market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to sufficient supply and weak demand [8] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely, with supply affected by weather and demand recovering [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different trends, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is loose with high port arrivals expected, and the oversupply pattern persists. Trade frictions may cause price drops, but macro - sentiment improvement provides short - term support. Four key factors need to be monitored for price re - pricing [2] - **Coking coal**: Macro - policy expectations are high, but supply concerns from safety inspections have limited impact on the market. The low profit of steel mills is the core issue [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and the market is waiting for demand recovery in October. High inventory and weak demand require rapid de - stocking for price stabilization [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak, with low demand due to the real - estate downturn. Inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term consolidation, and it is recommended to hold long positions as bullish sentiment rises [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels, driven by central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Demand is improving, cost is expected to rise, and delivery rules may be optimized, making the market bullish [5] - **Pulp**: Cost support is weak, and demand is poor, so the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, demand is general, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - The market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [5] Agricultural Products - **粕类**: Seasonal supply pressure is high, and demand is weak, so the market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5][8] - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with limited upward space [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are mainly affected by oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost, with different trends [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Log: Strong bias treatment [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak bias oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation bias strong [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market continues to face an oversupply situation, but short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. The coal and coke market is affected by macro policies and supply concerns, with the core contradiction being the low profit level of steel mills. The steel market has supply and demand contradictions and is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust. The glass market is weak, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The financial market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions in stock index futures. The precious metal market is expected to show strong bias oscillation due to various factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical risks. The forestry product market has positive factors for logs, while pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom. The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a short bias. The agricultural product market for live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The soft commodity market for rubber is expected to show wide-range oscillation, and the polyester market has different trends for each product [2][3][4][5][8][9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. However, short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. Four main lines should be closely monitored for potential price revaluation [2]. - Coking coal: Affected by macro policy expectations and supply concerns, the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. The second round of coke price increases is difficult to implement [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and prices need to cooperate with rapid inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the possibility of cold repair is increasing. The demand is dragged down by the real estate sector, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is down, and the market shows a small rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to show strong bias oscillation due to factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and physical demand [4]. Forestry Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, costs are expected to rise, demand is marginally improved, and the delivery specifications are expected to be optimized. Overall, logs are treated with a strong bias [5]. - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Oil and fat: The market is affected by factors such as high inventory, production changes, and policy expectations. It is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the production and sales of palm oil [5]. - Meal: The market faces seasonal supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American soybean growth. It is expected to oscillate with a short bias, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the import and arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price of large pigs is relatively firm, while the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. Short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather conditions, and demand is improving. Inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to show wide-range oscillation [9]. - Polyester products: Each product has different trends. PX, MEG, PR, and PF are on the sidelines, PTA oscillates, and the market for polyester bottle chips rebounds weakly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod): Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level operation [4] - Silver: High - level operation [4] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile with a bearish bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile with a slightly bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7][9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Volatile with a bearish bias [9] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, but short - term price support exists due to potential macro - sentiment improvement. The market should closely monitor four main lines for potential price re - pricing [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns. The core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue volatile adjustment. The fourth - plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to have limited short - term impact [2]. - The glass market has no significant improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and it is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand repair and capacity policies [2]. - The stock index market has seen a significant decline, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and lower long - positions in stock index futures [4]. - The Treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is suggested to hold long - positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The gold market is expected to operate at a high level, with its pricing mechanism shifting and influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound, with stable spot prices and cost - side support [6]. - The pulp market is expected to be at the bottom, with cost support weakening and demand improvement yet to be verified [6]. - The offset paper market is expected to be volatile, with stable supply and potential demand improvement [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [6]. - The meal market is expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with sufficient supply and fluctuating demand [7]. - The rubber market is expected to be in wide - range volatility, affected by weather, production, and demand factors [7]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is hard to reverse. Trade friction may cause price drops, but short - term support exists due to macro - factors. Four main lines should be monitored [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Macro - policy expectations are high, and supply concerns have emerged after a coal mine accident. The core problem is the low profit of steel mills [2]. - **Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod)**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and demand recovery in October needs attention. The market is expected to continue volatile adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is not improved, with inventory accumulation. It is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to policies [2]. - **Soda ash**: Similar to glass, it is expected to be adjusted, and the marginal improvement in the peak season should be noted [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has declined significantly. It is recommended to reduce risk and lower long - positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market shows a slight upward trend, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to operate at high levels, influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, with cost support. It is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Pulp**: Cost support weakens, and demand improvement is yet to be verified. It is expected to be at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand may improve. It is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Oils and fats**: They are expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by inventory, production, and demand [6]. - **Meals**: They are expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, and demand may decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Production is affected by weather, and demand is weak in the short - term. It is expected to be in wide - range volatility [7]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: They are affected by oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].