Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed strong growth in July 2025, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and volume at 16.4 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the industry generated 839.42 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, and handled 112.05 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1][2] Industry Data - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume figures: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and YTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [3] - The volume for these companies was 1.377 billion, 2.181 billion, 2.162 billion, and 2.583 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.7%, 11.9%, 7.6%, and 20.8% [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), Shentong at 28.980 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 28.851 billion yuan (+7.1%), and YTO at 37.943 billion yuan (+13.9%) [4] - The volume for the same period was 9.190 billion, 14.528 billion, 14.888 billion, and 17.446 billion pieces, with growth rates of 26.9%, 19.3%, 15.1%, and 21.6% respectively [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the trend towards lighter and smaller packages, an increase in reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The growth in volume is significantly outpacing the retail sales growth (+4.8%) and the growth in online retail sales (+6.3%), indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry is experiencing a price war, which is impacting per-package revenue, but there are signs of a shift towards more orderly competition as major players adjust their strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies to watch include leading e-commerce express firms such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as SF Express, which is expected to benefit from cyclical improvements in the mid-to-high-end market [6]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with prices in Yiwu rising to 1.4 RMB per item after two previous increases in August, aligning with Guangdong prices. This is part of a strategy to secure market share and combat internal competition [1][3] - The competition in the express delivery sector is expected to ease in the second half of the year, with improved profitability anticipated during the peak season in Q4 [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Increases and Market Dynamics**: - The express delivery prices in various regions are expected to rise, with Zhejiang, Fujian, and Anhui following suit with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 RMB [1][3] - The industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 18.7% from January to July 2025, indicating strong demand that supports price increases [1][7] - **Impact of Social Security Regulations**: - New social security regulations are increasing labor costs for delivery networks, with an estimated cost increase of approximately 0.11 RMB per item based on a national average social security base of 4,500 RMB [1][6] - If 30% of delivery personnel are already paying social security, the cost impact per item would be reduced to 0.08 RMB and 0.16 RMB under different payment scenarios [1][6] - **Profitability Projections**: - If stable price increases are maintained, profit growth for major companies in 2026 is projected as follows: Zhongtong 21%, Yuantong 26%, Yunda 30%, and Shentong 31% [2][8] - In a scenario where price increases are consistent and sustained through the peak season, profit growth could be even higher: Zhongtong 31%, Yuantong 46%, Yunda 66%, and Shentong 77% [2][8] Additional Important Insights - **E-commerce Impact**: - The logistics cost constitutes a small percentage of the overall e-commerce transaction value, with an average order value of 75 RMB and logistics costs of 2 to 3 RMB, which is less than 5% [1][7] - Even with a price increase of 0.5 RMB, the additional logistics cost would account for less than 1% of the total, indicating minimal impact on e-commerce operations [1][7] - **Company Recommendations**: - Short-term focus on companies like Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from the anti-internal competition policies [4][9] - Long-term focus on stronger networks such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, with SF Express also showing potential due to advancements in AI and autonomous vehicle technologies [4][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the express delivery industry, highlighting the ongoing price adjustments, regulatory impacts, and profitability forecasts for major players in the market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [6][16] Core Views - The second quarter saw ZTO Express achieve a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 27% [6] - The volume of parcels increased by 16.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth, but profits were pressured by price wars [6] - The report highlights a shift in the industry towards price increases amidst a competitive environment, suggesting that ZTO Express is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 47.913 billion yuan - 2026E: 53.746 billion yuan - 2027E: 60.232 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 8% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 89.93 billion yuan - 2026E: 95.27 billion yuan - 2027E: 106.89 billion yuan - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 13x for 2025, 12x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [6][3] Market Data - As of August 20, 2025, ZTO Express's closing price was 154.70 HKD, with a market capitalization of 124.451 billion HKD [4] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 219.00 HKD and a low of 123.70 HKD [4]

8月19日，韵达股份（002120）（002120）发布2025年7月快递服务主要经营指标快报显示，公司7月份 实现快递服务业务收入41.20亿元，同比增长3.75%；完成业务量21.62亿票，同比增长7.56%。 近年来，韵达股份在核心资源建设方面持续投入，构建多级转运体系，增强区域市场服务能力，提升运 营效率，缩短中转时效。公司以陆路运输为主，为满足高端快递产品的时效需求，并且把业务延伸到陆 路运输较难覆盖的地区，公司以航空运输作为陆路运输的有效补充，同时，公司积极部署包括无人机在 内的配送方式，目前，公司已在部分地区进行无人机试点。 国家邮政局公布7月快递行业数据，快递业务量同比增长15.1%。2025年7月我国快递业务量完成164.0亿 件，同比增长15.1%，快递业务收入完成1206.4亿元，同比增长8.9%。 华源证券认为，以旧换新政策持续为快递市场带来增量，快递公司积极开拓多元场景需求，满足消费者 消暑家电寄递需求，市场规模稳步扩大。 国泰海通交运分析团队认为，快递行业具有公共基础设施属性，邮管局两轮"反内卷"持续保障网络稳定 与良性竞争。此轮反内卷力度超预期，短期缓和竞争压力，未来监管力度或决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant shift against internal competition, with companies preparing for a new price war as delivery prices increase. The ongoing growth in delivery volume is expected to sustain this competitive pricing environment [1] Industry Summary - The express delivery sector is currently witnessing a trend of rising prices, indicating a departure from previous internal competition practices [1] - Companies are gearing up for a "real" price war, suggesting that competitive dynamics are intensifying as they respond to market conditions [1] - The continuous high growth in delivery volume is a key factor that will likely perpetuate the cycle of price competition within the industry [1]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is currently facing challenges such as price wars and market share competition, exacerbated by new social security regulations that increase cost pressures [1][4] - The National Postal Administration emphasizes the need to regulate and rectify the industry's "involution" competition, with some regions implementing price increases, though the effectiveness varies by local government support [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Social Security Regulations**: The new social security regulations are expected to significantly impact the express delivery industry, with full compliance anticipated by September 2025, leading to an increase in costs of approximately 0.02 CNY per package [1][4][6] - **Price Increase Trends**: The Guangdong region has implemented a price increase of 0.4 to 0.5 CNY, while other areas like Hunan still experience price wars. The price increase is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the market and improve service quality [3][5] - **Market Dynamics**: The disparity in market share between leading companies and smaller firms is expected to widen, with smaller firms showing greater profit elasticity, particularly companies like Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu, which have profit elasticity ranging from 80% to 150% [1][5][6] - **Cost Sharing**: The burden of social security costs is likely to be shared across the entire supply chain, including listed companies, franchisees, and labor outsourcing companies, making it difficult to quantify the exact distribution of these costs [6][9] Additional Important Insights - **Future Market Expectations**: The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to enhance service quality and market competition, leading to healthier industry development. However, the varying levels of government support for price increases will affect the overall effectiveness of these policies [5][8] - **Elasticity of Earnings**: The earnings elasticity for companies is projected to be significant, with even pessimistic scenarios showing close to 200% elasticity for smaller firms. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are currently low, making them attractive investment opportunities [7][9] - **Expansion of Anti-Involution Trends**: The anti-involution trend is expected to spread beyond major grain-producing areas to non-grain-producing regions, although this will take time. The overall trend indicates a likelihood of price increases during peak seasons [2][8] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is undergoing significant changes due to regulatory pressures and market dynamics. The anticipated rise in social security costs and the push for price increases are expected to reshape the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms while providing opportunities for smaller firms with high profit elasticity. Continuous monitoring of government support and market responses will be crucial for stakeholders in the industry [1][5][9]

2)头部企业盈利修复目标坚定。考虑非理性价格战显著影响了加盟网点盈利与长期信心，2022年头部企 业盈利修复目标坚定，行业竞争趋缓且网络得到休养。3)快递员权益保障政策，驱动单票收入回升。 2021年6月七部委印发《关于做好快递员群体合法权益保障工作的意见》，8月底电商快递集体宣布自9 月全网派费上调0.1元/票，旨在落实政策提升快递员收入，抱团提价传导成本压力。 2025年快递"反内卷"力度超预期，短期竞争压力趋缓，中长期继续保障良性竞争 自2024下半年头部企业份额关注度再次明显提升，2025年春节后价格竞争力度继续增强。2025Q1行业 利润率同比承压，该行预计Q2降幅继续扩大，且快递网络稳定性风险再次凸显。7月上旬国家邮政局强 调将旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，7月底召开快递企业座谈会要求确保网络平稳运行和基层网点稳定。 根据罗戈网，7月义乌底价率先要求提升约0.2元;8月广东多地跟进上调底价约0.4元，并高于义乌。该行 认为此轮"反内卷"自上而下将继续深化，后续多地或跟进治理。"反内卷"短期将缓和竞争压力，更重要 的是中长期继续保障良性竞争，有利于行业自然集中。 国泰海通发布研报称，维持快递增持评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，本轮快递反内卷，一方面强调了快递企业作为反内卷的主 体，一方面强调了国家和地方邮管局的监管职责和执法能力，双管齐下。此次快递反内卷自上而下，且 广东省已率先落地，该行认为具有扩散效应，且在淡旺季衔接和社保新规背景下，快递反内卷具备持续 性，各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 广东作为快递业务量占比较高的地区，2017年以来其快递业务量占全国业务量的份额保持在 24.33%-27.25%，其反内卷率先落地，有望对全国其他快递"产粮区"形成示范效应，从其他地方邮政局 的动作看，预计其他地区如浙江、福建等地区会一定程度的跟随涨价。 淡季涨价叠加社保新规，预计反内卷效果将在一定时期内持续 不同于以往年份的旺季涨价，今年快递行业在反内卷的推动下，淡季进行提价，而之后可以衔接旺季， 从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法定义务，新规自 9月1日起施行。该行以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，对单 票的平均影响在6分钱。因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增 加，经营压力进一步提升，而反内 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The company operates primarily in the cosmetics sector within the e-commerce industry, focusing on platforms such as Douyin (over 40% market share), Pinduoduo (nearly 20%), Tmall, and JD.com [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies**: In the first half of 2025, the implementation of anti-competition policies led to a price increase of 0.5 yuan in express delivery costs, raising the company's shipping cost to nearly 2 yuan per order, significantly affecting the low-ticket cosmetics business [1][2][3] - **Strategic Focus**: The company plans to increase investment in Tmall and develop high-priced products to enhance overall profitability, while continuing to benefit from lower shipping costs on Douyin and Pinduoduo [1][3][4] - **E-commerce Tax Regulations**: New e-commerce tax regulations limit the cosmetics industry to a 30% tax deduction, compared to 15% for other sectors. The company has optimized its advertising costs on Pinduoduo to 40% and improved product quality to reduce return and after-sales costs [4][22] - **Distribution System**: The company's distribution system accounts for approximately 30% of total volume, while self-operated business constitutes 70%. The self-operated data is deemed more accurate for reflecting overall volume due to the impact of low-priced sales by distributors [5][6] - **Product Cost and Pricing**: The production cost of cosmetics is around 2-3 yuan, with a selling price of 19.9 yuan, resulting in a profit of about 3 yuan per unit. The average order value is below 30 yuan, with a gross margin of approximately 23% [6][22] Additional Important Insights - **Shipping Partnerships**: The company collaborates with YTO Express and Shentong Express for logistics, utilizing cloud warehouses in Guangzhou to enhance shipping speed and cost efficiency [2][7] - **Market Competition**: The e-commerce landscape in 2025 is more complex due to rising costs, tax pressures, and increased competition, leading to a decline in performance compared to previous years [27] - **Return Rates**: The return rate for low-ticket items is around 10%, while cosmetics can reach 20-30%. Different platforms exhibit varying return rates, with Pinduoduo and Douyin having more flexible return policies [28][30] - **Future Trends**: The company anticipates that the return phenomenon will continue, influenced by advertising costs and product quality, with high return rates persisting in categories like cosmetics and apparel [31] This summary encapsulates the essential aspects of the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and operational dynamics within the e-commerce sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Social Security New Regulations" is expected to enhance social security coverage, particularly in the flexible employment market, which is crucial for increasing social security participation [2][6]. - The express delivery market faces three main challenges in social security coverage: difficulty in headquarters management, unclear labor relationships, and low willingness of workers to participate in social security [6][22]. - The new regulations are anticipated to work in tandem with the "anti-involution" initiative, potentially leading to price recovery and restoration of the network ecosystem in the express delivery sector [6][37]. Summary by Sections Social Security New Regulations - The new regulations will take effect on September 1, 2025, allowing workers to request economic compensation from employers if they terminate contracts due to the lack of social security [2][21]. - The flexible employment market, with over 240 million workers, is seen as a key area for increasing social security coverage [6][22]. Challenges in the Express Delivery Market - The express delivery sector has a low social security payment rate, primarily due to management difficulties at headquarters, unclear labor contracts, and low participation willingness among workers [6][22][32]. - The report highlights that if the express delivery industry achieves full social security coverage, the cost per delivery could increase by approximately 0.06 to 0.10 yuan [6][38]. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is likely to see price adjustments as a response to the new regulations, which could lead to a more sustainable business model [6][37]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shentong, YTO, and Zhongtong for potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in the evolving market landscape [8][66].