昨日專欄【港股Podcast】點評：港交所 (00388.HK)：要轉燈了嗎？有投資者等430元再考慮入場。窩輪市場上，昨天有投資者尾盤走牛證，反手Put。Simon:守住整數 關口440元，全日收440.8元。投資者在昨日止賺離場且反手做空，在窩輪市場的確需要眼明手快，在即市賺錢就走，這類投資者對市場的敏感度比較高，值得恭喜這 位投資者。回到正股方面，目前買賣信號為"買入"。支持位427元和413元。投資者認為430元是合理的，接近第一個支持位。 截止上午10点18分，港交所（00388）股價報 439.8元，從技術指標來看，整體呈現「買入」信號，信號強度為 15，其中多條移動平均線發出「強力買入」 信號，MACD、一目均衡表等指標也偏向樂觀，但 RSI 指標顯示 71，處於超買區域，買賣呈現中立狀態，這意味短期或存在獲利回吐壓力。面對這樣的技 術面分歧，投資者是否該趁調整佈局，還是等待更明確的信號？ 從支撐位與阻力位分析，港交所當前的支持 1 位在 427 元，支持 2 位在 414 元，而阻力 1 位則在 451 元，阻力 2 位達 468 元。目前股價處於 440.8 元，正處 於向阻力 1 位進攻的 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) shows a mixed sentiment with bullish investors expecting a rebound and bearish investors anticipating a drop to the 24,900 heavy load area [1] - Technical analysis indicates a primary buy signal for HSI, with a resistance level at 25,748 and a suggested recovery price for bearish options at 25,688, which is close to the resistance level [1] - For China Petroleum (00857.HK), a strong buy signal is noted, with the first resistance level at 8.18, indicating potential for further upward movement [3] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - China Resources Beer (00291.HK) is showing a buy signal with a closing price of 27.25, and resistance at 28.1, suggesting potential for a rebound [6] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) has a buy signal with 14 buy and 5 sell signals, and a resistance level at 560, with support levels at 529 and 510 for potential low-price entry [9] - Meituan-W (03690.HK) has a short-term buy signal with a closing price of 127.4, and support levels at 122.1 and 116.1 [11] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) is on a strong upward trend with a buy signal, resistance levels at 24.6 and 27, both below the 30 mark [13]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, with a recent decline of 1.05% to HKD 56.8, indicating active market trading and a neutral signal without a clear direction [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is positioned slightly below the 10-day moving average of HKD 57.49, yet remains above the 30-day moving average of HKD 56.96 and the 60-day moving average of HKD 54.55, suggesting short-term adjustment pressure but no significant damage to the medium-term trend [1]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 55.2 and HKD 53.6, while resistance levels are at HKD 58.4 and HKD 60.3. A rebound above HKD 57.5 could challenge the resistance at HKD 58.4, whereas a drop below HKD 55.2 may lead to a decline towards HKD 53.6 [4]. Market Sentiment - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with multiple moving averages issuing sell signals, but the overall market sentiment is not strongly bearish, as indicated by a sell strength of only 10. The RSI is at 53, indicating a neutral zone [4]. - Recent performance in the derivative market shows a significant increase in bearish instruments when Xiaomi's stock price fell by 2.82% on July 24, with notable gains in related put options [4]. Derivative Instruments - Investors looking for bullish positions may consider UBS call options (14816) with a strike price of HKD 61.05, offering a leverage of 5.9 times and low implied volatility. HSBC call options (14677) have the same strike price but offer slightly higher leverage at 6.1 times [7]. - For bearish investors, options such as Bank of China put options (14387) with a strike price of HKD 46.45 and leverage of 3.09 times, or UBS put options (17706) with a strike price of HKD 53.94 and leverage of 4.8 times, are available [7]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, waiting for a clear breakout above HKD 57.5 or a drop below HKD 55.2 before making further moves. A range trading strategy could be beneficial, positioning call options near support levels and put options near resistance levels [13].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has recently shown strong upward momentum, with its stock price reaching 30.8 HKD, marking a significant increase of 10.39% on Thursday (24th) with a trading volume of 1.568 billion HKD, indicating a bullish technical pattern [1][3] Technical Analysis - The stock price has encountered key technical levels, with immediate support at 26.3 HKD and strong support at 24.2 HKD, while the upper resistance is at 34.7 HKD, which is a critical psychological barrier [3] - Multiple indicators are signaling overbought conditions, with an RSI of 78, suggesting a higher probability of short-term pullbacks when RSI exceeds 75 [1] - The volatility has been significant, with a 5-day price fluctuation of 22.7%, and the implied volatility has surged by 25 percentage points, indicating potential for continued volatility [1] Market Sentiment - The recent surge in Ganfeng Lithium's stock has positively impacted related derivative products, with notable increases in warrants, such as Huatai's warrant rising by 34% and Bank of China's warrant increasing by 30% following a 7.5% rise in the underlying stock [3] - The market sentiment has improved significantly, driven by a rebound in lithium carbonate prices and a recovery in electric vehicle sales [3] Investment Products - Investors may consider bullish strategies with warrants like JPMorgan's warrant (exercise price 29.29 HKD, leverage 3.3) and Bank of China's warrant (exercise price 29.34 HKD, leverage 3.4), which are deemed relatively stable [5] - Caution is advised as the implied volatility of Ganfeng Lithium has increased, necessitating careful comparison of time decay when selecting warrants [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to continue rising to 25,800-26,000 next week, with a support level at 24,600 and a resistance level at 25,894 [1] - Technical signals indicate a "strong buy" for the semiconductor sector, with a potential price target of 56-60 HKD for SMIC [3] - China Southern Airlines has recently broken through its previous high, with a key resistance level at 6.19 HKD [6] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Ganfeng Lithium is showing a gradual upward trend, with a support level at 27 HKD and a resistance level at 33.6 HKD, potentially reaching 35 HKD [9] - Alibaba's stock is currently viewed as a buying opportunity, with a target of 130 HKD and support levels at 112.3 HKD and 105.7 HKD [12] - AAC Technologies has a neutral technical signal, with resistance levels at 41.2 HKD and 42.5 HKD, indicating a lack of clear direction [15]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, and SMIC's stock has shown strong performance, with a current price of 50.7 HKD, up 4% [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price has stabilized above the 10-day moving average of 47.21 HKD and the 30-day moving average of 44.06 HKD, indicating a positive mid-term trend [1] - MACD has formed a golden cross, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is trending upwards, suggesting bullish momentum [1] - However, the RSI indicator at 73 indicates an overbought condition, and the Williams indicator shows a sell signal, suggesting a potential need for consolidation before challenging the resistance at 53.3 HKD [1] - Key support is at 46.7 HKD, with a potential drop to 43.4 HKD if this level is breached; resistance is at 53.3 HKD, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a challenge at 55.6 HKD [1] - Despite the bullish indicators, the momentum oscillators show divergence, indicating possible short-term volatility [1] Market Opportunities - Bullish strategies include UBS call options 15627 (strike price 58.93 HKD, 4.4x leverage) with the lowest premium, and UBS call options 13340 (strike price 58.05 HKD, 3.9x leverage) with the lowest implied volatility [6] - HSBC bull certificate 56886 (redemption price 43 HKD, 5.4x actual leverage) and UBS bull certificate 58014 (redemption price 43.1 HKD, 5.7x actual leverage) are also good choices for bullish strategies [6] - For bearish strategies, Societe Generale bear certificate 67110 (redemption price 55 HKD, 10.6x actual leverage) and UBS bear certificate 58475 (redemption price 54.5 HKD, 10.6x actual leverage) provide hedging options [6] Market Sentiment - There is market speculation on how long SMIC's current upward momentum can last amid the semiconductor industry's recovery [9] - Investors are considering whether the stock price will first test the support at 46.7 HKD or directly challenge the resistance at 53.3 HKD [9]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 100 HKD, with a closing price of 99.7 HKD, indicating a "strong buy" signal. The first resistance level is at 101 HKD, and the second at 106 HKD [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is above the 10-day moving average of 97.62 HKD and the 30-day moving average of 95.05 HKD. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, and the Bollinger Bands indicate an upward trend. However, the RSI has reached 75, entering the overbought zone, suggesting a potential need for consolidation before testing the 101.1 HKD resistance level [1][3]. - Key support is at 96.5 HKD, with a potential drop to 93.2 HKD if this level is breached. The important resistance level is at 101.1 HKD, with a possible test of 106.2 HKD upon a breakout [3]. Derivative Products - In the options market, several products are available, including the China Bank call option (16930) with a leverage of 15.5 times and an exercise price of 115.98 HKD, and the UBS call option (16458) with a leverage of 14.9 times, also at 115.98 HKD. There are also UBS call options (14280) with a higher leverage of 26 times and an exercise price of 107 HKD, expiring in September [6][10]. - UBS bull certificates (56446) and JPMorgan bull certificates (56622) offer 11 times actual leverage with a redemption price of 88 HKD. On the bearish side, UBS bear certificates (60586) provide 14.4 times leverage with a redemption price of 105 HKD, while Citibank bear certificates (58283) offer 16.1 times leverage, also with a redemption price of 105 HKD [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently stable, with a 3.3% five-day volatility, and the stock price is positioned in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. The market sentiment reflects a mix of buy signals from the bull-bear power indicator, while the stochastic oscillator shows signs of overbought conditions, indicating potential short-term fluctuations [3][14].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock performance shows positive momentum with a closing price of 526 HKD, reflecting a daily increase of 0.86% and a trading volume of 9.212 billion HKD, indicating active market participation [1] Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators suggest a "buy" signal with a strength of 14, indicating a favorable medium to long-term trend [1] - Various oscillators are in a "neutral" state, with the RSI at 63, suggesting a balanced short-term market sentiment [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for Tencent is at 510 HKD, with a second support at 494 HKD; the first resistance level is at 530 HKD, and the second at 558 HKD [3] - The stock is currently near its first resistance level, making the ability to break through this level crucial [3] - The system assesses a 54% probability of an upward movement, with a recent 5-day volatility of 2.9%, indicating potential trading opportunities [3] Product Performance - On July 17, 2025, Tencent's stock rose by 0.87% two days later, with related products like JPMorgan's bull certificate (58311) increasing by 11% and UBS's bull certificate (58237) by 7%, showcasing the leverage effect of these products [3] Notable Derivative Products - For bullish sentiment, Bank of China call options (16356) have a leverage of 14.3 times with a strike price of 600.5 HKD, while UBS call options (15943) have a leverage of 14.4 times, both offering good value [5] - For bearish sentiment, Bank of China put options (18276) have a leverage of 9.2 times with a strike price of 434.8 HKD, and UBS put options (17893) have a leverage of 9.7 times, suitable for risk-averse investors [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish outlooks, UBS bull certificates (58594) and JPMorgan bull certificates (58695) both have a leverage of 21 times with a redemption price of 507 HKD, presenting strong potential [7] - For bearish outlooks, UBS bear certificates (54414) have a leverage of 21.9 times with a redemption price of 550 HKD, and Societe Generale bear certificates (58795) have a leverage of 26.3 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, indicating higher leverage but also increased risk [8]

Group 1 - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) continued its upward trend, reaching HKD 48.75 with a 3.17% increase [1] - Technical indicators show that the stock price has successfully broken through MA10 (HKD 46.23) and MA30 (HKD 43.51), with a MACD golden cross indicating strong short-term upward momentum [1] - The stock price is approaching a key resistance level at HKD 50.4, with potential for a challenge to HKD 53.4 if this level is surpassed [1] Group 2 - Immediate support is identified at HKD 45.2, with a potential drop to HKD 42.5 if this support is breached [1] - The current market activity is robust, with a 9.6% five-day volatility indicating active trading in the semiconductor sector [1] - Derivative tools show significant leverage effects, with notable increases in related warrants and certificates during recent price movements [2][5] Group 3 - For bullish strategies, options such as Guojun call warrant (exercise price HKD 48.05, 2.8x leverage) and HSBC call warrant (exercise price HKD 48, 2.7x leverage) are highlighted as providing solid leverage [5] - Bearish strategies include options like Societe Generale bear certificate (redemption price HKD 52, 12.4x leverage) and Citigroup bear certificate (redemption price HKD 52.4, 11.6x leverage) for risk hedging [8] - The market is observing a potential short-term volatility increase due to conflicting technical indicators, suggesting a cautious approach may be warranted [1]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor company SMIC (中芯国际) shows positive technical indicators, with a current stock price of HKD 48.8, reflecting a 0.51% increase. The stock is above its 10-day and 30-day moving averages, indicating a favorable medium-term trend, although it is approaching overbought territory [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently supported at HKD 45.1, with a potential drop to HKD 42.4 if this support is broken. The key resistance level is at HKD 50.3, and a breakthrough could lead to testing HKD 53.3 [1]. - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, while the Bollinger Bands indicate an upward trend. However, the RSI is at 68, nearing the overbought zone, suggesting a possible need for consolidation before testing the resistance at HKD 50.3 [1]. - Investors are optimistic about breaking the resistance at HKD 49, with some targeting HKD 53. The overall technical signals are summarized as "buy" [1]. Derivative Instruments - Recent performance of derivative products linked to SMIC shows significant leverage effects. For instance, a specific warrant from Societe Generale increased by 32% following a 3.08% rise in SMIC's stock price [4]. - Various warrants are available in the market, with Citigroup's warrant offering 5.5x leverage at an exercise price of HKD 52.55, and UBS's warrant providing 4.2x leverage at HKD 52.05 [7]. - Bear certificates are also available, with one from Societe Generale offering 12.4x leverage and a redemption price of HKD 52 [10]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates active trading, with a 9.6% five-day volatility suggesting robust market engagement. The mixed signals from momentum oscillators indicate potential short-term fluctuations [1]. - Investors are considering whether to wait for a pullback to support levels or to follow through on potential breakouts, reflecting varying risk appetites in the semiconductor sector [13].