《 人民日报 》（ 2025年08月13日 02 版） 本报北京8月12日电 （记者韩鑫）记者近日从国家邮政局获悉：经测算，7月中国快递发展指数为 414.3，同比提升5.2%。数据表明，快递行业保持良好运行，市场规模稳步扩大。 7月，快递行业自有航空公司开通多条国际全货机航线，航空寄递网络不断加密，航空运能持续提升。 同时，持续丰富无人车服务场景，主要快递企业联合医药、水饮、零食等企业，投用多类型无人车，探 索无人仓配、无人车长距离运输等服务，提升精准配送服务能力。 "随着用户体验持续提升，智能化、无人化提速发展，预计8月，快递行业仍将保持稳中有进发展态 势。"国家邮政局有关负责人表示。 以旧换新政策持续为快递市场带来增量，7月快递业务量预计同比增长14.7%，快递业务收入同比增长 接近8%。此外，快递企业积极开展校园包裹寄递，深耕特色农产品、文旅特产等市场，满足消费者消 暑家电寄递需求，市场规模稳步扩大。 7月，快递服务公众满意度预计为85.2分，同比提升1.5分。重点地区72小时妥投率预计为86.3%，同比 提升1.5个百分点。在山东青岛探索"地铁站接驳跨海直达"物流新模式，大幅提高运输效率；与四川成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of intelligent driving and modern logistics is transforming the delivery industry, with unmanned logistics vehicles becoming a key force in reshaping express delivery through cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and value addition [1]. Cost Reduction: Restructuring the Logistics Chain - By the end of 2024, the scale application of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to exceed 6,000 units, delivering over 100 million orders across various segments [2]. - The growth of unmanned logistics vehicles is supported by government policies, including the "Action Plan to Effectively Reduce Logistics Costs" and the "Special Action Plan for Accelerating Smart Supply Chain Development" [2]. - Unmanned logistics vehicles are particularly promising in last-mile delivery, with successful cases emerging in sectors like retail and pharmaceuticals [2]. - A mixed delivery model combining riders and unmanned vehicles has been implemented by companies like SF Express, enhancing efficiency during peak hours [3]. Efficiency Improvement: Collaborative Efforts in the Industry Chain - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry is transitioning from point optimization to systemic efficiency, with multi-party collaboration and innovative business models becoming the norm [4]. - Strategic partnerships, such as those between Zhongtong Express and New Stone Technology, are expanding the application of unmanned delivery [4]. - The collaboration between technology and platform companies is creating a closed-loop ecosystem for research and development, reducing operational risks and enhancing efficiency [5]. Value Addition: Breaking Through Commercialization Challenges - Despite rapid deployment, challenges remain, including regulatory inconsistencies and technological limitations in complex environments [7]. - Product homogeneity is increasing, with some manufacturers adopting low-price strategies, which may impact long-term industry health [8]. - Companies are focusing on differentiating their technology and service ecosystems to remain competitive in a crowded market [8]. - The establishment of a robust regulatory framework is crucial for high-quality industry development, with over 200 cities in China already opening road rights for unmanned vehicles [9].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a price increase and volume increase ratio reaching 40% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the 34% and 32% seen in 2020 and 2021 respectively [5][1] - The government is implementing measures to combat "involution" in the industry, including price correction drafts and compliance guidelines from regulatory bodies [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The express delivery market is expected to grow by 16.3% in 2025, with future growth projected at 6%-9% over the next two to three years. Companies are expected to manage this growth without excessive price competition [1][15][16] - **Company Performance**: - **SF Express**: Maintains healthy growth with cost reductions due to volume increases, showing no signs of involution [7] - **Yunda**: Focused on stable development, with price increases slightly above industry levels [7] - **YTO Express**: Achieved increases in volume, revenue, and prices, indicating high-quality development [8] - **Shentong**: Experienced a smaller price drop than the industry average, with a volume increase above the average [8] - **Postal Express**: Underperformed compared to YTO and Shentong, with lower pricing [9] - **Franchisee Issues**: Franchisees are facing intense competition, with a significant portion of the revenue being retained by them, leading to price wars [10] Government Measures - The government has taken steps to address involution, including: - Emphasizing political and economic correctness in central meetings [6] - Implementing price correction drafts for the first time since 1998 [6] - Enforcing compliance guidelines for online trading platforms [6][17] Future Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The industry is expected to benefit from digitalization and automation, leading to cost reductions and improved efficiency [19][22] - **New Revenue Streams**: New business avenues such as cross-border delivery, factory delivery, and emergency logistics are anticipated to enhance industry revenue and profits [19][22] - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for five major companies in the industry is expected to reach 30 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to 50-60 billion by 2030 [21][22] Regional Insights - **Jinhua**: Experienced a price drop of 0.09 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a projected annual decrease of 0.13 to 0.14 yuan [11] - **Linyi**: Saw a price reduction of 0.15 yuan, with an expected total decrease of 0.22 to 0.23 yuan for the year [12] - **Jieyang**: Noted significant price competition, with a drop of 0.37 yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - **Baoding**: Experienced a price drop of 0.76 yuan, with an annual forecast of around 1 yuan [14] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is navigating a complex landscape of price competition, regulatory scrutiny, and technological advancements. The focus on maintaining healthy competition and exploring new revenue streams is expected to drive growth and profitability in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) is experiencing significant market activity, with substantial net subscriptions and a strong performance in the context of the growing military and aerospace sectors. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of August 12, 2025, the aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) recorded a turnover of 13.12% with a transaction volume of 65.54 million yuan, indicating active market trading [3] - The fund has seen a net subscription of 15 million shares, ranking first among similar products [3] - Over the past week, the ETF has increased by 3.25%, leading in performance among comparable funds [3] - In the last three days, the ETF attracted a total net inflow of 35.52 million yuan [3] - The latest fund size reached 506 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception [3] - The total shares outstanding have reached 410 million, also a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 115% [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The domestic and international unmanned/anti-unmanned sectors are showing continued improvement, with details of military drone training and deployment being disclosed [4] - The first export order for a 100-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon has been secured, indicating the practical deployment of laser anti-drone equipment [4] - The defense and military industry is benefiting from military trade orders and the upcoming military parade, which is expected to showcase new generation weaponry [4] - The missile and military electronics sectors are experiencing a surge in orders, while the aerospace engine supply chain is seeing fundamental improvements [4] - The pace of domestic satellite constellation deployment is accelerating, with 2025 projected as a key year for large-scale deployment of domestic satellites [4] Group 3: ETF Composition and Focus - The aerospace ETF Tianhong closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, focusing on key areas such as fighter jets and satellite supply chains [5] - The index has a high "military content," with 98.2% of its constituent stocks belonging to the defense and military industry, surpassing traditional military indices [6] - The index has the highest "drone content" in the market, with significant participation from companies involved in drone technology [7] - It covers the aerospace industry chain comprehensively, with over 69% weight in aerospace, aviation, and naval equipment [9] - The index constituents exhibit stronger technological attributes and clearer valuation logic, aligning with the trend of high-end development in the military and aerospace sectors [10] - The expected revenue growth rate for the index in 2025 is projected to exceed that of traditional military indices [11]

Core Insights - The China Express Development Index for July 2025 is reported at 414.3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [1] Group 1: Index Breakdown - The development scale index stands at 570.5, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [1] - The service quality index is recorded at 566.5, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - The development capability index is at 220.7, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The development trend index is at 69.5, indicating a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industry is maintaining a good operational status, with a steady expansion of market scale and continuous improvement in service experience [1] - There is an enhancement in trunk transportation capacity, further strengthening its role in economic development [1] - The industry is focusing on retaining existing volume, expanding new volume, improving quality and efficiency, and ensuring safety [1] - The capital market is performing well, and user experience is continuously improving [1] - There is a rapid development in intelligence and automation, contributing positively to industrial collaboration and the expansion of domestic demand [1] - The industry is expected to maintain a steady and progressive development trend in August [1]

Group 1 - The company, XCMG, has a significant advantage in the road machinery sector, with a domestic market share exceeding 40% for its main products [1] - XCMG has maintained the top position in sales of road rollers and pavers for several consecutive years, while its maintenance machinery is rapidly rising [1] - The company is also a leader in the fields of intelligence and automation, exemplified by the fully autonomous construction project at the Shuangliu Yangtze River Bridge, which features one self-driving paver and seven self-driving rollers [1] Group 2 - The autonomous construction project completed 33.61 kilometers of mainline paving work with high efficiency [1]

Group 1: Company Development and Changes - The company has undergone significant changes since its second entrepreneurship began in 2015, focusing on "unmanned and fewer people" as its main direction [3] - Three major changes in the company's fundamentals and growth logic: 1. The development stage has shifted, moving past the most difficult period [3] 2. The business structure has transformed, creating a broader growth potential with a strategic layout of "one body, two wings, and eight major businesses" [3] 3. The growth model has evolved, ensuring sustainable and predictable future performance [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved profitability, marking a turning point in its development [4] - Since the 2024 semi-annual report, the net profit has increased by over 50% for four consecutive reporting periods [4] - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 34.7 million and 38.2 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 100%-120% [4] Group 3: International Expansion - The company has pursued a dual-market strategy since its inception in 2002, expanding both domestically and internationally [4] - In 2024, overseas business revenue reached 992 million yuan, a 24% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 40% of total revenue [6] Group 4: Software and Technology Capabilities - The company has developed strong software capabilities alongside its hardware products, supported by a software team of approximately 300 people [7] - The company has created cloud platform systems for new retail operations, logistics automation, and equipment maintenance services [7] Group 5: New Retail Operations - The company has a competitive edge in new retail operations through technological and model innovations, including a dedicated team for the "self-service retail cloud platform" [8] - The business strategy combines public and commercial points, integrating with government functions to access areas typically unavailable to commercial operators [9] Group 6: Logistics Automation - The company focuses on intelligent logistics equipment and solutions, providing a full industry chain solution that includes core components and operational services [11] - The company leads the market in single-item separation and linear sorting machines, significantly reducing labor costs in sorting operations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company has reported a consistent net profit growth of over 50% for four consecutive reporting periods since the 2024 semi-annual report, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential [1] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 34.7 million to 38.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 100% to 120% [1] Strategic Direction - The company is focused on the "unmanned and less manpower" main direction and adheres to the "one body, two wings, and eight major businesses" strategy, demonstrating commitment to its long-term growth plan [1] - The company aims to create "three strategic growth curves" to ensure sustainable and predictable quality growth [1]

Core Insights - The civil explosives industry has multiple barriers to entry, including production licensing, sales qualifications, engineering experience, and regional resources, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration [2][3] - By 2024, the CR10 of the industry has reached 62.47%, exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" target [3] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards mixed explosives and electronic detonators, with significant advancements in smart manufacturing and international competitiveness [3][4] Industry Barriers - The civil explosives industry has high entry barriers due to production licensing constraints, with policies generally prohibiting the addition of new industrial explosives and detonator production capacity [2] - Sales qualifications emphasize safety records and technical compliance, making it difficult for new entrants to meet standards in the short term [2] - Companies need "dual first-class qualifications" to undertake quality downstream blasting services, creating experience barriers [2] Industry Trends - The concentration of civil explosive companies is increasing, with the top 10 companies achieving a combined production value of 26.048 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The proportion of mixed explosives is expected to rise to over 35% by 2025, driven by their cost-effectiveness and safety advantages [3] - Electronic detonators have reached a 94% replacement rate for traditional detonators, with 309 million industrial detonators produced in the first half of 2025 [3] Technological Advancements - The industry is advancing towards smart and unmanned operations, with goals set for 2027 to have over 50% of companies achieving a maturity level of 3 in smart manufacturing [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 2025 plan encourages civil explosive companies to participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative, enhancing international competitiveness [4] Key Investment Targets - Recommended companies include Yipuli and Guangdong Hongda, while other companies such as Jiangnan Chemical and High Contest Civil Explosives are not covered as investment recommendations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth potential and application of autonomous forklifts, emphasizing their integration with existing forklift technology and the increasing demand in logistics and manufacturing sectors [2][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The robotics industry is evolving along two main paths: vertical development focusing on humanoid robots for industrial and consumer applications, and horizontal development targeting specific applications to enhance efficiency through automation [2]. - In the logistics sector, companies like Amazon have deployed a significant number of robots, optimizing operations and reducing movement time by 10% [3]. Group 2: Market Data - Global forklift sales are projected to reach 2.14 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and China is expected to account for half of this volume [5]. - In 2023, global sales of autonomous forklifts reached approximately 30,700 units, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, with China leading the market at 19,500 units sold, a 47% increase [10]. Group 3: Technology and Cost - The cost of autonomous forklifts has significantly decreased from 600,000 RMB to around 200,000 RMB per unit since 2018, making them more competitive against traditional electric forklifts [13]. - The integration of advanced navigation and control technologies has enhanced the operational capabilities of autonomous forklifts, allowing for greater efficiency in indoor logistics [12]. Group 4: Company Performance - Toyota Industries reported a decline in forklift sales for FY2025 but expects net sales to grow by 7.7% due to price increases and favorable exchange rates [20]. - Hyster-Yale's Q1 2025 revenue fell by 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a weak European market, while KION Group saw a significant increase in order volume, indicating strong demand in the industrial vehicle sector [22][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The forklift industry is anticipated to experience a recovery starting in 2025, driven by growth in emerging markets, while the North American and European markets remain relatively weak [27].