| 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 5294 | 6094 | 6788 | 7322 | 8399 | | 同比增长 | -4% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 15% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 586 | 906 | 1041 | 1170 | 1379 | | 同比增长 | 11% | 55% | 15% | 12% | 18% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 812 | 934 | 1049 | 1237 | | 同比增长 | 9% | 51% | 15% | 12% | 18% | | 每股收益(元) | 1.13 | 1.70 | 1.96 | 2.20 | 2.60 | | PE | 42.9 | 28.5 | 24.8 | 22.0 | 18.7 | | PB | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 杰克股份（603337.SH） 业绩稳健增长，单 Q2 毛利率创上市以来新高 中游制 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 CNY [1] Core Views - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies during a challenging industry phase, focusing on optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing execution efficiency [7] - The company has established itself as a leader in the 100-500 CNY price range within its home province, with ongoing opportunities for market expansion [7] - The company is making significant strides in its V series and expanding its presence in markets outside its home province, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region [7] - The company has shown resilience in maintaining stable pricing and strong sales performance during the seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in banquet events during the May Day holiday [7] - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected total revenue of 11,546 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,546 million CNY, 12,578 million CNY, 13,641 million CNY, and 14,695 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.3%, 8.9%, 8.5%, and 7.7% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3,412 million CNY in 2024A, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.9%, 7.8%, and 7.8% for the following years [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.74 CNY for 2024A, increasing to 3.40 CNY by 2027E [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 17 in 2024A to 14 in 2027E, indicating potential value for investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [1] Core Views - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies during a challenging industry phase, focusing on optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing execution efficiency [7] - The company has established itself as a leader in the 100-500 yuan price range within its home province, with ongoing efforts to expand market share and explore growth opportunities in both domestic and provincial markets [7] - The company is making significant strides in its V series and expanding its presence in provincial markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth [7] - The company has shown resilience in maintaining stable pricing and operational performance, with a notable increase in banquet events during the May Day holiday [7] - The report forecasts steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 11,546 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,546 million yuan, 12,578 million yuan, 13,641 million yuan, and 14,695 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.3%, 8.9%, 8.5%, and 7.7% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,412 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 4,235 million yuan by 2027E, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.9%, 7.8%, and 7.8% for the respective years [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.74 yuan in 2024A, rising to 3.40 yuan by 2027E [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 17 in 2024A to 14 in 2027E, indicating potential value for investors [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jinshiyuan Company Overview - Jinshiyuan is a leading liquor company in Jiangsu, with projected revenue of 11.546 billion yuan and profit of 3.412 billion yuan for 2024, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in revenue and 18% in profit over the past 11 years [2][6][10] - The company has three main brands: Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan, and Gaogou, with over 90% of revenue coming from high-end products priced above 100 yuan [2][8] Industry Insights - The liquor market in Jiangsu is approximately 60 billion yuan, with Jinshiyuan holding about 10% market share, while Yanghe holds around 40% [16] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of about 10% from 2025 to 2027, with profit growth slightly lower at around 9% [3][20] Financial Performance - Jinshiyuan's operating cash flow has maintained a compound growth rate of about 17% from 2019 to 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 30% in 2014 to 44% in 2024 [10] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly in 2024 due to channel policy adjustments, but net profit margin remains stable [2][9] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence both within Jiangsu and in surrounding provinces, implementing a strategy of deepening penetration in core markets while also targeting new areas [2][18] - Jinshiyuan's product structure is evolving, with a focus on high-end products and a significant increase in the share of mid-to-high-end products [9][12] Competitive Positioning - Jinshiyuan is positioned in a competitive landscape against Yanghe, with a strategy of differentiated competition, particularly in the high-end segment [15] - The company has seen a narrowing gap in revenue compared to Yanghe, with the revenue ratio improving from 1:2.3 in 2019 to 1:1.2 in 2024 [16][17] Organizational Changes - Recent organizational adjustments include the restructuring of the strategic department and the establishment of several new business units to enhance operational efficiency [19] Brand Marketing and Consumer Trends - Jinshiyuan's marketing strategy leverages its cultural heritage and has seen increased advertising expenditures since 2017, focusing on its three main brands [14] - The V3 product, priced over 600 yuan, has shown positive sales trends, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [22] Future Outlook - The company aims to reach a revenue target of 15 billion yuan as part of its long-term strategic plan, with a focus on maintaining steady growth and improving market share [6][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" with a target price of 53.64, indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index [1][7][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.546 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.31%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion, up 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 5.099 billion, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.644 billion, growing by 7.27% [4][10]. - The company is experiencing steady growth across multiple product lines, with significant contributions from premium products [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenues of 11.546 billion and a net profit of 3.412 billion, with respective growth rates of 14.31% and 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues reached 5.099 billion, reflecting a 9.17% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.644 billion, up 7.27% [4][10]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that premium products (特 A+/特 A/A) contributed significantly, with revenues of 7.491 billion, 3.347 billion, and 419 million, growing by 15.17%, 16.61%, and 1.95% respectively [5]. - The company is expanding its market presence, with a notable increase in the number of distributors both domestically and internationally [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.75%, slightly declining to 73.63% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of mid-tier products and increased discounts [6]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.55%, which decreased to 32.24% in Q1 2025, indicating a slight decline in profitability [6]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 10% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 11% for 2027, with net profit growth expected at 9%, 10%, and 12% respectively [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.98, 3.28, and 3.66 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024 and a pragmatic approach in 2025, with total revenue projected to reach 115.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, and a net profit of 34.12 billion yuan, up 8.80% year-on-year [7] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at 115.46 billion yuan and 34.12 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 50.99 billion yuan, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and net profit is projected at 16.44 billion yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 74.75% in 2024, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 29.55% [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.68 based on the current market price [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from the Special A+ and Special A product categories is expected to grow by 15.2% and 16.6% respectively, with the V6 product line anticipated to lead in growth [7] - Revenue from domestic and international markets is projected to increase by 13.3% and 27.4% respectively, with significant growth in regions such as Anhui and Shandong [7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company’s net profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.50 percentage points to 29.55% in 2024, attributed to increased discounts and a higher proportion of mid-tier products [7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to decline to 74.75% in 2024, with fluctuations in sales expense ratios also noted [7]