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生猪数据日报-20250718
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 03:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]
牧原股份: 2025年半年度业绩预告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-09 11:13
Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the current reporting period, a significant increase of 924.6% to 973.39% compared to the same period last year, which reported a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 10.2 billion and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,129.97% to 1,190.26% from last year's 829 million yuan [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 10.6 billion to 11.1 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, marking an increase of 882.95% to 929.31% from the previous year's 1.078 billion yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 1.90 yuan and 2.00 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The significant improvement in the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold compared to the same period last year, leading to higher revenue [1] - Additionally, the cost of pig farming has decreased compared to the previous year, further contributing to the enhanced profitability [1]
生猪日报:供应阶段性好转,价格略有回落-20250707
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of live pigs decreased today. After the previous continuous price increase, market supply increased, and the price showed a downward trend. Although the recent supply pressure has decreased, as the price rises, the supply has improved, and the upward momentum of the price is limited. Secondary fattening is currently on the sidelines, and there is still supply pressure in the future, so it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend today. After the previous rapid increase in the futures price, market optimism decreased, and the futures price showed a phased decline. As the subsequent spot price is expected to weaken, the futures price is also expected to be affected. In terms of the price spread between futures contracts, the market lacks obvious driving factors in the short - term and is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - **Spot Price**: The average price of live pigs today was 14.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.63 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions all decreased, with the largest decrease in Hunan (-0.99 yuan/kg) and the smallest in Heilongjiang (-0.07 yuan/kg) [4]. - **Futures Price**: Among the futures contracts, LH07 increased by 220 yuan to 14070 yuan, LH03 increased by 20 yuan to 12995 yuan, and LH05 increased by 55 yuan to 13185 yuan. LH09 decreased by 60 yuan to 14245 yuan, and LH11 decreased by 35 yuan to 13685 yuan [4]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The price of piglets was 431 yuan, and the price of sows was 1621 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. - **Breeding Profit**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan, an increase of 69.48 yuan; the profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan, an increase of 105.45 yuan [4]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume was 130828 heads, a decrease of 585 heads from yesterday [4]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between different - sized pigs changed. For example, the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.03 yuan, while the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.09 yuan. Among the futures contracts, the spread of LH7 - 9 increased by 280 yuan, and the spread of LH9 - 1 decreased by 75 yuan [4]. 3.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: It is mainly expected to operate in a high - level volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: Long LH09 and short LH01. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [8]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250703
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 09:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply decreases due to farmers' price - holding and reduced weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month, but there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter as sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. High temperatures and school holidays suppress pork demand, resulting in slow terminal sales and a decline in slaughterhouse operating rates. The entry of second - fattening investors boosts the near - month price of live pigs. Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the entry rhythm of second - fattening investors [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,652 lots, down 4,273 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,158 lots, down 2,550 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 15,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main live - pig contract is 1,030 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, up 4,000 heads. The monthly CPI year - on - year change is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,436.86 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 950.52, up 1.21. The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 131.71 yuan/head, up 55.08 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is 50.25 yuan/head, up 30.85 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 32.16 million heads, up 1.39 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned live - pig output of key provincial breeding enterprises in July 2025 is 13.005 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. At the beginning of the month, farmers hold prices and reduce the volume of pigs for sale, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreases, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. The sow production capacity in the third quarter is in an increasing cycle, with a risk of delayed supply [2]
禾丰股份: 禾丰食品股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券2025年跟踪评级报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-25 18:38
Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of He Feng Food Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook, indicating strong competitive advantages in scale, brand, and technology [1][3]. Company Overview - He Feng Food Co., Ltd. operates in the agricultural and animal husbandry industry, primarily engaged in feed and feed raw material trading, poultry business, and pig farming [8][17]. - The company has a total asset of 154.46 billion yuan and equity of 76.91 billion yuan as of March 2025 [8][17]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 325.45 billion yuan, with a profit of 3.94 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [8][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in gross profit margin due to a decrease in costs, leading to an overall profit in 2024 [3][5]. - As of March 2025, the company’s cash assets totaled 13.24 billion yuan, with a current ratio of 152.66% [6][8]. Debt and Credit Rating - The company’s debt structure shows a slight increase in long-term debt, but overall debt pressure remains manageable [3][5]. - The rating agency has noted that the company’s debt repayment capacity indicators are performing well, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.55 times as of March 2025 [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - He Feng Food maintains a leading position in the Northeast region of China’s agricultural industry, with strong brand recognition and technological capabilities [5][17]. - The company has been recognized as a key agricultural enterprise and has received multiple awards for its technological advancements [17]. Recent Developments - The company has acquired stakes in 13 subsidiaries to enhance its poultry business, which will be consolidated into its financial statements starting April 2025 [3][19]. - The actual controller's shareholding has decreased to 32.16% following the retirement of some shareholders, but the company remains under stable control [3][19]. Industry Analysis - The feed industry is experiencing fluctuations in raw material prices, with a focus on cost control and efficiency improvements [14][15]. - The overall market for livestock and poultry is recovering, with expectations of stable raw material costs and a slight increase in supply [14][15].
国信期货生猪周报:均重继续下降,盘面震荡偏强-20250620
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:14
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the past week, the live hog spot market rebounded steadily, the futures market was volatile and strong, the basis weakened, and the spread between LH9 and LH11 was volatile and strong. The spot market was supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts, the average weight continued to decline, and the second - fattening significantly shrank, providing strong support for the peak - season contract LH09. Fundamentally, the obvious month - on - month increase in the number of fertile sows in April and May continued to suppress the LH2603 contract. In the short and medium term, the monthly month - on - month increase in the number of sample piglets born from January to May means that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited. It is expected that the spot market will be volatile and weak in the short term. For futures, the LH09 contract corresponds to the peak consumption season. Although the theoretical slaughter volume will still increase, due to policy - guided weight reduction and restricted sales of second - fattened hogs, the average slaughter weight may be lower, partially alleviating the pressure of the slaughter volume. The futures market has certain support for now. The operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude, and continue to pay attention to the rhythm of weight reduction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market rebounded steadily last week, with the futures market being volatile and strong. The basis weakened, and the LH9 - LH11 spread was volatile and strong. The spot was supported by farmers' resistance, and the decline in average weight and reduction in second - fattening supported the LH09 contract. The increase in fertile sows in April and May suppressed the LH2603 contract. The increase in piglet numbers from January to May indicates growing slaughter volume. Consumption is in the off - season, and the spot is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The LH09 contract has support due to potential weight reduction, and the operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - **Live Hog Futures Market**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot Market**: The spot market rebounded steadily last week, with limited demand support due to the off - season [7]. - **Live Hog Spot: Basis after Regional and Weight Adjustment**: On June 19, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2507 at 13255, data on standard pig prices, weight ranges, regional premiums and discounts, and basis in different provinces are presented. For example, in Henan, the standard pig price was 14.38, and the basis was 1125 [25]. - **Live Hog Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Change in Fertile Sows**: The number of fertile sows increased significantly month - on - month in April and May, which continued to suppress the LH2603 contract [7]. - **Change in Piglets**: The number of sample piglets born from January to May increased month - on - month, indicating that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow later [7]. - **Verification of Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Slaughter Situation**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Pork Consumption Situation**: Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited [7]. - **Frozen Meat Market Dynamics**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Cost and Profit**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations**: In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started for the third - level early warning, considered for the second - level, and started for the first - level. For excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are started for the second - level early warning and increased for the first - level. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods [73]. - **Multi - caliber Comparison**: No specific content provided in the given text.
养殖ETF(159865)涨超1.3%,连续4日净流入
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-11 04:46
Group 1 - The livestock sector continues to rebound, with the Livestock ETF (159865) rising over 1.3% and experiencing net inflows for four consecutive days [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the industry capacity cycle for pig farming has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics [1] - Recent policy initiatives are accelerating the industry's efforts to reduce inventory, which is expected to realign the supply-demand relationship, potentially leading to a long-term profit uptrend after inventory reduction concludes [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (code: 930707), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers the entire livestock industry chain, including pig and chicken farming as well as related support services, demonstrating strong industry representation [1] - The recovery in pig inventory levels is boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with performance gradually improving [1]
0530强势股脱水
2025-06-04 01:50
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved 1. **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: Focus on the pharmaceutical sector with a specific mention of Fosun Pharma and its recent drug approvals [1][5][6] 2. **Livestock Farming**: Highlighting the pig farming industry with a focus on Juxing Agriculture [10][14] 3. **Artificial Turf**: Discussing the artificial turf industry with a focus on Gongchuang Turf [15][18] Core Points and Arguments Innovative Pharmaceuticals 1. **R&D Investment**: In 2024, the company maintained stable R&D intensity with total R&D investment of 5.554 billion yuan, of which 4.910 billion yuan was allocated to pharmaceutical business, representing 16.98% of pharmaceutical revenue [1][8] 2. **Product Approval**: The company received approval for its new drug, Luwo Meitini tablets, for treating rare tumors, addressing unmet medical needs [5][6] 3. **Revenue Growth**: The pharmaceutical segment is expected to achieve revenue of 28.924 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit of 3.250 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65.73% [7][8] 4. **International Expansion**: The company is advancing its internationalization strategy, with several drugs receiving approvals in the US and Europe [9] Livestock Farming 1. **Production Goals**: Juxing Agriculture aims to achieve a pig output of over 4 million heads in 2025, with a current capacity of over 180,000 breeding pigs [10][14] 2. **Market Conditions**: The industry is benefiting from lower feed costs and improved disease control, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [10][13] 3. **Performance Metrics**: In 2024, the company reported a pig output of 2.7552 million heads, with a 50.76% year-on-year increase in commercial pig output [14] Artificial Turf 1. **Market Growth**: The global artificial turf market is projected to grow from 22.063 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.2 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the advantages of artificial turf over natural grass [15] 2. **Revenue Breakdown**: In 2024, the company achieved domestic revenue of 319 million yuan and international revenue of 2.616 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 12.5% and 21.0% [18] 3. **Production Capacity**: The company has a total production capacity of 116 million square meters, with significant expansions planned in Vietnam and Mexico [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Healthcare Services**: The healthcare services segment reported a revenue increase of 14.61% in 2024, although it still faced losses due to ongoing investments in specialized services and smart healthcare [8] 2. **Cash Flow Stability**: Juxing Agriculture reported a positive operating cash flow of 0.059 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating stable operational efficiency [20] 3. **Cost Management**: Gongchuang Turf demonstrated effective cost control with a decrease in expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [19] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and strategic directions of the companies involved in the innovative pharmaceuticals, livestock farming, and artificial turf industries.
ETF收评:大湾区ETF领涨2.26%,信创ETF领跌5.19%
news flash· 2025-05-30 07:03
Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market closed in the red [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug, aquaculture, and military equipment sectors led the gains [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion and humanoid robot sectors experienced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) led the gains with an increase of 2.26%, while the aquaculture ETF (516760) and the agricultural ETF (562900) both rose by 1.91% [2] - Other notable ETFs included the livestock ETF (159867) up 1.67% and the agricultural 50 ETF (159827) up 1.62% [2] Pig Industry News - Recent market news indicated that the pig industry will not increase the number of breeding sows and will reduce the weight of fattening pigs to 120 kg, discouraging the sale of secondary fattening pigs [2] - This news has led to a collective rise in pork stocks, which had previously been in a downturn due to falling pork prices [2] - An analyst noted that since mid-May, pork prices have broken previous fluctuation ranges, hitting year-to-date lows, primarily due to the inverted price difference affecting breeding farms and increased supply [2] Declining ETFs - The Xinchuang ETF (159537) led the declines with a drop of 5.19%, followed by the Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) down 2.77% and the China Concept Internet ETF (159607) down 2.75% [3][4]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250529
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 09:22
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13640 | 80 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 79448 | 1488 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 450 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -9767 | 2092 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14600 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14200 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 960 | -80 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 4038 | -1 | | 产业情况 | | | | | | | | 玉米现货价 | -0.1 2379.8 | 1.76 大商所猪饲料 ...