Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.66%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased, and over 3,600 stocks fell. Most industry sectors declined, with significant corrections in the automobile and non - bank finance sectors, while bank stocks led the gains [2]. - Overseas, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eased as Iran accepted a cease - fire agreement. Some Fed officials signaled monetary policy easing, but Fed Chairman Powell said the economy was highly uncertain and was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, showing obvious differences within the Fed. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate has weakened recently [2]. - Domestically, in May, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value decreased year - on - year, and the real estate market continued to decline. Only social retail sales increased due to policy support. CPI and PPI data also indicated future price pressure. In May, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed, the growth rate of social financing stock was flat, but new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, reflecting insufficient real - economy financing demand. The central bank and five other departments issued a document to promote consumer spending through financial means, and expanding domestic demand is the current policy focus [2]. - Overall, the domestic economic fundamentals are still under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand recovery may become the main driving force for economic growth. The Fed may cut interest rates earlier, relieving RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the easing of tensions in the Middle East boosts market risk appetite. The strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Spread - Futures prices of all major and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM declined. For example, the IF (2509) main contract was at 3904.2, down 9.0; the IH (2509) main contract was at 2711.0, down 4.4; the IC (2509) main contract was at 5729.0, down 13.0; and the IM (2509) main contract was at 6097.8, down 3.6 [2]. - Various contract spreads also showed changes. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1206.4, down 4.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1888.4, down 10.8 [2]. - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts also changed. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 16.6, down 4.4; IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 80.2, down 5.8 [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The IF top 20 net position was - 29,487.00, up 527.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 13,192.00, up 22.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 13,910.00, up 225.0; and the IM top 20 net position was - 37,102.00, down 517.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 3946.02, down 14.1; the Shanghai 50 was at 2738.47, down 9.3; the CSI 500 was at 5838.25, down 24.3; and the CSI 1000 was at 6247.79, down 28.4 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The A - share trading volume was 16,232.23 billion yuan, down 162.83 billion yuan. The margin trading balance was 18,292.33 billion yuan, up 72.27 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 1716.34 billion yuan, up 110.73 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 29.90%, down 42.39%. The Shibor was 1.370%, down 0.001 [2]. - Options - related indicators also changed. For example, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2507) was 43.60, down 18.80; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 13.99%, down 2.12 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said the US will hold talks with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement next week, and he believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but the conflict may break out again [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed hopes to base decisions on actual data rather than over - confident forecasts. The US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [2].

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a rebound on June 25, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with WTI crude rising by $0.55 to $64.92 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $0.54 to $67.68 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 797,000-barrel decline [1][2] - Gasoline and distillate inventories also saw declines of 2.1 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively, both below the five-year average by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries increased by 125,000 barrels to 17 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 94.7%, up from 93.2% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply rose by 389,000 barrels to 9.688 million barrels, marking the highest level since December 2021, indicating a significant rebound in fuel demand due to summer travel [1] - The daily net crude oil imports increased by 531,000 barrels to 1.674 million barrels [1] Group 3 - The Cushing region's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 500,000 barrels to 22.2 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 237,000 barrels to 40.2 million barrels [2] - U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels to 13.435 million barrels [2] - Analysts noted that the decline in inventories across major refined products could shift market focus back to U.S. supply and demand dynamics rather than Middle Eastern tensions [2] Group 4 - Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, supply-demand conditions remain high, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical factors [2] - Analysts suggest that oil prices have returned to key levels prior to the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential for a return to economic fundamentals if geopolitical risks diminish [2][3] - Short-term momentum for oil prices has weakened, with the possibility of continued low-level fluctuations before a significant rebound occurs [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股 major indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded for three consecutive days, and over 3900 stocks rose. Non - bank finance and national defense and military industry sectors strengthened, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. - Overseas, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East eased geopolitical conflicts. There are differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, and the dollar - RMB exchange rate has weakened recently. - Domestically, economic fundamentals in May showed a decline in imports, exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value year - on - year. The real estate market is accelerating its decline, and only social retail sales increased. CPI and PPI data indicate future price pressures. Financial data shows that the M1 - M2 gap narrowed in May, social financing stock growth remained flat, and new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, suggesting insufficient real - economy financing demand. - The central bank and five other departments issued a document to promote consumer spending through financial means, with expanding domestic demand as the policy focus. - Overall, the domestic economic fundamentals are under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand recovery may support economic growth, the Fed may cut interest rates early, the RMB exchange - rate pressure is relieved, and the eased Middle East situation boosts market risk appetite. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is at 3922.8 (+74.2), IH (2509) at 2722.6 (+42.6), IC (2509) at 5759.8 (+133.6), IM (2509) at 6119.6 (+131.0). Their corresponding secondary - main contracts also showed increases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1210.4 (+21.8), IC - IF spread is 1899.2 (+45.0), etc. Some spreads increased while the IM - IC spread decreased by 3.0 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: Most quarter - to - month spreads showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Holders**: IF's net position is - 29,653.00 (- 415.0), IH's is - 12,784.00 (- 907.0), IC's is - 13,685.00 (+854.0), and IM's is - 34,131.00 (+1113.0) [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of their corresponding futures contracts also increased [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 16,395.06 billion yuan (+1914.47 billion), margin trading balance was 18,220.06 billion yuan (+51.05 billion), and north - bound trading volume was 1605.61 billion yuan (+228.25 billion) [2]. - **Fund Flows and Policies**: Main - force funds increased by 22.96 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 3000 billion yuan, and reverse - repurchase operations increased by 3653.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 72.29% (- 15.91%), Shibor was 1.371% (+0.001%), and option prices and implied volatilities mostly increased [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share strength index was 7.30 (- 0.90), the technical - aspect index was 7.20 (- 1.60), and the capital - aspect index was 7.40 (- 0.10) [2]. Industry News - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and the Fed Chair Powell indicated a wait - and - see attitude on interest - rate adjustments but did not rule out early rate cuts [2]. - The central bank and five other departments issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, setting up a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan and promoting long - term capital entry into the capital market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - A-shares' major indices rose collectively, with significant recovery in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was strong, with over 4,700 stocks rising. Overseas, the ceasefire in the Middle East eased geopolitical tensions, and the Fed signaled a potential interest rate cut, which alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and boosted market risk appetite. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are still under pressure, and the recovery of domestic demand may become the main driving force for economic growth. Strategically, it is recommended to lightly open positions on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM's main and sub - main contracts all rose. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 3852.4, up 52.6 [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread rose to 1188.6, up 19.2 [2] - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts showed various trends. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 19.8, up 6.2 [2] Futures Position Data - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,840.00, up 3076.0 [2] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. For example, the CSI 300 was 3904.03, up 46.1 [2] - The basis of the main contracts showed different changes. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 51.6, up 8.9 [2] Market Sentiment Data - A - share trading volume reached 14,480.59 billion yuan, up 3011.36 billion yuan. The margin trading balance was 18,169.01 billion yuan, up 44.20 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of rising stocks was 88.20%, up 6.15%. The Shibor was 1.370%, up 0.003 [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market strength was 8.20, up 0.60. The technical aspect was 8.80, up 0.60 [2] Industry News - Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar, but there were no US casualties. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice and called for peace. A cease - fire agreement has been reached, involving two 12 - hour cease - fire periods [2] - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman said she might support an interest rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee also expressed views on interest rate cuts and stagflation risks [2] Key Data to Focus On - June 24, 20:30: US Q1 current account [3] - June 24, 22:00: Fed Chair Powell testifies on monetary policy in the House [3] - June 25, 20:30: US May PCE and core PCE [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, indicates that the economic fundamentals are weak, the labor market is loosening further, and the process of inflation decline is ongoing [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as weak, suggesting potential challenges for growth and investment opportunities in the near term [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing further loosening, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Inflation Trends - The process of inflation decline is still in progress, indicating that inflationary pressures may be easing, which could influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The overall bond market is showing a strong upward trend, supported by the need for economic growth and a stable liquidity environment, despite limited downward space for interest rates due to growth policies [1][7] - Economic fundamentals indicate weak domestic demand, which underpins the bond market's strength, with a mixed performance in production, consumption, investment, and exports [2][7] - The central bank's actions, including large-scale reverse repos, are maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity environment, which supports optimistic market expectations [4][7] Group 2 - Incremental policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on existing policies and financial tools, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy rather than broad rate cuts [6] - The bond market's focus is shifting towards economic fundamentals and monetary policy changes, with expectations of limited interest rate declines and potential market corrections [7] - The market anticipates a strong performance in short-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with a cautious approach to potential adjustments [7]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting maintained the current interest rates, with inflation effects from tariffs requiring time to observe, indicating a potential stagflation scenario for the U.S. economy [1] - Domestic economic data for May shows a strong supply side, a rebound in consumption growth, and a decline in investment growth, with fiscal intensity weakening [1] - The second and third quarters are expected to show resilient year-on-year growth due to low base effects from last year, with further policy support potentially mitigating growth slowdowns [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - In the bond market, expectations for "restart buying bonds" and "government bond reserve requirements" have increased, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term ones, leading to an overall strong bond market [1] - The central bank's unexpected support for liquidity in June, including multiple reverse repos and MLF operations, is expected to stabilize the funding environment, with short-term yields likely to remain strong [1] - Weak financial data and investment trends have not improved, maintaining a downward trend for long-term yields, which may require central bank actions to break previous lows [1] Group 3: A-shares and H-shares - In the A-share market, external geopolitical conflicts may present buying opportunities during significant adjustments, with the focus shifting to economic fundamentals as the U.S.-China tariff pause extends to August [2] - The upcoming earnings season in July and August will be crucial for A-share market pricing, with a low risk of significant declines in economic fundamentals under policy support [2] - The H-share market currently enjoys ample liquidity, but mid-term adjustments may be pressured by low AH share premiums and high U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 4: Commodities - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has temporarily boosted oil sentiment, although global oil demand may still be affected by tariffs in the mid-term [3] - Economic policy uncertainties from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are expected to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, despite short-term volatility [3] - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

美联储戴利：经济基本面正朝着可能需要降息的方向发展。 ...

Group 1 - The main driver of the economy in Hong Kong is the financial services sector, with most bank loans linked to the HIBOR interest rate, and a reduction in financing costs is expected to stimulate the credit cycle and invigorate economic activity [1] - The correlation between the year-on-year growth of the Hang Seng Index and the year-on-year change in China's manufacturing PMI is as high as 56%, while the correlation with changes in HIBOR and US Treasury yields is relatively low [1] - Changes in interest rates have a more significant impact on local stocks, as lower interest rates can expand liquidity, reduce leverage costs, and stimulate market activity [1] Group 2 - Economic prosperity is highly correlated with the growth rate of M2, and lower financing costs are expected to boost the economy [1] - The current balance of forces on the RMB exchange rate suggests a low likelihood of significant tightening in HKD liquidity, and any fluctuations due to policy adjustments may create opportunities for increased allocation [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (code: 159519) tracks the state-owned index (code: H11153), which primarily includes state-owned enterprises listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance, and industry [1]