新西兰两年期国债收益率回落，此前新西兰预计2025年和2026年经济增长放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The Monetary Authority of Singapore's head indicated that the market reflects the outlook of economic growth slowdown and high inflation in the United States [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank reports that the East Asia and Pacific region is facing economic challenges due to rising global economic policy uncertainty, increased trade restrictions, and slowing growth in major economies, leading to reduced investment and consumer confidence [1] - Economic growth in the region is projected to slow to 4.0% by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 4.4%, with Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia expected to grow at 5.8%, 5.3%, and 4.7% respectively, while Myanmar may experience a 1% economic contraction [1] - The global economic uncertainty index reached its highest level since 1997 in January, and the trade policy uncertainty index hit its highest since 1960 in February, indicating significant impacts on personal consumption and investment growth [1] Group 2 - The outlook for regional development is further dampened by worsening trade policies, a sharp global economic slowdown, financial market volatility, and escalating geopolitical tensions, which could severely impact export-oriented economies like Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam [2] - Declining commodity prices may affect resource-exporting countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Laos, while high interest rates in developed economies pose greater risks to smaller economies reliant on external financing [2] - The depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah, capital outflows from the stock market, and rising bond yields since late 2024 reflect investor caution in the region [2] Group 3 - The World Bank suggests that the trend of global economic integration may be changing, with trade as a percentage of global GDP rising from under 40% in 1990 to around 60% before the 2008 financial crisis, and Southeast Asian countries experiencing even faster growth in trade share [3] - Countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia have seen their share in global trade increase from 2017 to 2023, but they face mounting pressure from protectionist measures taken by major economies even before the current trade war [3] - To address the changing globalization trend and long-term challenges like climate change, the World Bank calls for technological transformation, domestic reforms, and deeper international and regional cooperation, highlighting agreements like RCEP, CPTPP, and DEFA as effective responses [3]

由于不确定性，预计今年将降息一次。 可能不得不顶住来自关税的通胀压力。 我们正处于"巨大转型"时期。 美国亚特兰大联储主席Bostic：不确定性不太可能很快自行解决。 美中关系缓和"稍微"改变了我的看法。 预计经济增长放缓，但我认为不会出现经济衰退。 今年的经济增长率可能在0.5%-1%之间。 ...

Core Insights - The warning from Federal Reserve official Barr highlights the potential economic slowdown and rising inflation due to supply chain disruptions related to tariffs [1][4][7] - Small businesses play a crucial role in the supply chain and overall economy, but they are particularly vulnerable to disruptions due to limited resources and access to credit [3][5][6] Supply Chain Disruption Risks - Supply chain disruptions can lead to raw material shortages, production delays, and increased costs, significantly impacting profitability, especially for small businesses [3][4] - Small businesses are more susceptible to these challenges due to their limited financial resources and reliance on a narrow supplier and customer network [5][6] Economic Growth and Inflation Pressures - Supply chain disruptions may result in a dual pressure of slowing economic growth and rising inflation, posing significant challenges to the U.S. economy [4][6] - Rising costs from supply chain issues could be passed on to consumers, increasing price levels and potentially leading to reduced production or layoffs [4][6] Importance and Vulnerability of Small Businesses - Small businesses are essential for providing specialized inputs that are not easily sourced elsewhere, making their stable operation vital for supply chain integrity [5][6] - The limited access to credit for small businesses further restricts their ability to navigate crises, increasing the risk of closures and further supply chain disruptions [6] Uncertainty in Trade Policy - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies increases operational costs and unpredictability for businesses, complicating long-term production and investment planning [7] - This uncertainty may lead to delayed investments and hiring, negatively affecting economic growth and stability [7]

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：在经济增长放缓的情况下提前加息可能会抑制消费和资本支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr highlights the potential risks to the U.S. economy from trade policy adjustments, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions that could lead to both economic slowdown and increased inflationary pressures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - Despite the current robustness of the U.S. economy, trade policy changes could trigger significant supply chain volatility that warrants close attention [1] - Barr emphasizes that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a critical role in the economic system, serving as essential nodes in supply chains and providing specialized production factors [1] - Historical experiences indicate that supply chain disruptions can have multiplier effects, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, where shortages led to prolonged industry shutdowns and persistent price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Risks to SMEs - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to risks due to limited access to credit and insufficient financial reserves, making them more susceptible to operational pressures in the event of supply chain interruptions [1] - If trade policy uncertainties continue, similar scenarios to those experienced during the pandemic could reoccur, potentially weakening economic growth momentum and exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - While Barr did not specify direct policy measures, he stressed the importance of policy transparency and stable expectations, urging that trade policies should consider their impact on microeconomic entities, especially SMEs [2] - The current economic landscape in the U.S. is characterized by dual challenges of inflationary pressures and slowing growth, reflecting concerns about the spillover effects of trade policies [2] - The trajectory of this policy debate may significantly influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions [2]

美联储巴尔：供应链中断或导致通胀上升 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储巴尔表示，美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可 能导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。巴尔强调了小企业的重要性，以及它们在供应链和整体经济中的作 用。他表示，贸易政策给前景蒙上了阴影，增加了不确定性。对小企业来说，潜在的供应链中断"尤其 严重"，部分原因是它们获得信贷的机会较少。他补充道，小企业通常提供不易从其他地方获得的专业 投入，而企业倒闭可能会进一步扰乱供应链。 ...

泰国财政部长：由于关税措施，未来两年经济增长可能放缓。 ...

美联储副主席Philip Jefferson表示，关税及相关不确定性可能在今年减缓经济增长并推高通胀，但货币 政策已做好在必要时作出应对的准备。Jefferson强调政府政策方面的不确定性上升，并表示目前尚不清 楚关税是否会对价格产生短期或更持久的影响。他下调了对今年经济增长的预期，但仍预计经济将继续 扩张。"如果目前已宣布的关税上调持续存在，它们可能会阻碍通胀放缓的进程，并至少在短期内推高 通胀，"Jefferson周三在纽约联储举办的一场会议上的预先准备讲话中表示。(新浪财经) ...