Core Insights - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports in July fell by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.8% decline, primarily due to a drop in pharmaceutical exports [1][1][1] - The Singapore government raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from a range of 0.0%-2.0% to 1.5%-2.5% following better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year [1][1][1] - Despite a free trade agreement with the U.S. and a trade deficit with the U.S., Singapore is still subject to a 10% tariff, which may impact future economic growth [1][1][1] Export Performance - Non-oil exports to the U.S., China, and Indonesia decreased in July, while exports to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong increased [1][1][1] - The Singapore Economic Development Board maintained its forecast for non-oil export growth at 1%-3% for the year, anticipating some weakness in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1] Trade Policy Concerns - Singapore's Prime Minister expressed uncertainty regarding potential increases in U.S. tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, highlighting the pressure on small open economies due to rising trade barriers [1][1][1]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) maintains its economic growth forecast for South Korea at 0.8% for this year, despite the last-minute trade agreement with the U.S. that mitigated the impact of punitive tariff increases [1] Economic Growth Forecast - KDI's forecast for South Korea's economic growth remains unchanged at 0.8% for this year, consistent with its May prediction [1] - The positive impact of government stimulus plans on consumer confidence is being offset by declining construction investment and ongoing weak exports due to U.S. tariff increases [1] Trade Agreement Impact - The recent trade agreement reduced the proposed U.S. tariff cap on South Korean exports from 25% to 15%, helping South Korea avoid more severe economic repercussions [1] - However, the new terms are less favorable than the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and KDI warns that current tariff levels and uncertainties remain high compared to previous years [1] Export Growth Outlook - KDI projects only moderate growth in goods exports over the next two years, as the negative effects of tariff increases are expected to become apparent starting in the second half of this year [1]

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][3] - As of the latest report, the KOSPI index maintained a gain of approximately 1.9%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Sk Biopharma (up over 16%) and Samsung SDI (up over 12%) [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation exceeding 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with the average retail price of watermelon reaching 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), reflecting a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 17.6% increase from the same period last year [5][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise month-on-month, and cabbages, which increased by 68% [7] Weather Impact - South Korea is experiencing one of the most severe heatwaves on record, with July temperatures reaching 33 degrees Celsius or higher on 15 days, significantly impacting agricultural production and prices [8]

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading [2][3] - Key sectors such as information technology, healthcare, and finance showed strong performance, with IT and healthcare sectors increasing by over 3% [3] - Notable individual stock performances included SK Biopharma rising over 16% and Samsung SDI increasing over 12% [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the IMF [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation above 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with watermelon prices reaching an average of 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), a 33.7% increase from the previous month [6][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise in average price compared to the previous month, and cabbage prices exceeding 6,000 KRW [6][7] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.13 billion to $411.33 billion, following a decline to a five-year low in May [5] - The increase in reserves was attributed to the issuance of new foreign exchange stabilization fund bonds and improved returns on foreign assets [5]

Group 1 - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][2] - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve its economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with processed food prices rising by 4.1% and seafood prices increasing by 7.3%, while agricultural product prices saw a slight decline of 0.1% [2][3] Group 2 - The average retail price of watermelon reached 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), marking a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 20.7% rise compared to the same period last year, attributed to extreme heat and increased demand [5][6] - Other agricultural products, such as tomatoes and cabbages, also saw significant price increases, with tomatoes rising nearly 70% month-on-month and cabbages exceeding 6,000 KRW (32 RMB) per head, reflecting the impact of severe weather conditions [5][6] - The Bank of Korea reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves, which rose by 1.13 billion USD to 411.33 billion USD by the end of July, following a decline to a five-year low in May [4][3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Latin America, projecting a growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement compared to previous estimates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Growth Projections - Latin America's economic growth is expected to reach 2.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from April's forecast, and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - Brazil's growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, up by 0.3 percentage points, and 2.1% for 2026, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - Mexico is expected to grow by 0.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and maintain a growth of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - Argentina's growth forecast remains at 5.5% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, unchanged from April [1] Comparative Performance - Despite the upward revision, Latin America's growth continues to lag behind other emerging markets and developing countries, which are projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, expecting a growth of 3.2% this year, primarily due to better-than-expected output from Saudi Arabia and Egypt [2] - The IMF predicts Saudi Arabia's economic growth will reach 3.6% this year and has adjusted Egypt's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 3.8% to 4.0% [2] - The improvement in the economic outlook is attributed to more supportive financial conditions in the region, with a decrease in main debt spreads and an increase in international bond issuances [2] Economic Forecasts - The MENA region's economic growth is expected to remain at 3.4% in 2026 [2] - Egypt's economic growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1%, mainly due to delays in implementing structural reform agendas [2] - The IMF anticipates a decline in inflation rates in the coming months and years, despite currently high regional inflation [2] Sector Performance - Non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications sectors in Egypt have shown better-than-expected output, contributing to the upward revision of its economic growth forecast [2]

本周四，在美联储早间决定维持利率不变后，日本央行也紧随其后，一致决定维持利率不变。 不过与美联储不同的是，日本央行还对外释放了鹰派信号：如果未来日本经济和通胀的增长符合其预 测，它将在未来加息。此外，日本央行还上调了2025年的通胀和经济增长预期。 日本央行按兵不动 释放鹰派信号 日本央行表示，由于日本的实际利率仍处于"非常低的水平"，如果其经济预测实现，它将"继续提高政 策利率，调整货币宽松程度"。 在日本央行发出的鹰派信号影响下，日元大幅走强，美元兑日元汇率下跌0.5%，至148.74日元。日本股 市保持乐观，日经225指数上涨近0.6%。 早在7月初，日本央行植田和男就发出过同样的信号，令市场对央行可能发出的鹰派信号早有防备。北 京时间周四14:30，植田和男将在新闻发布会上发表讲话，其对于未来前景的表述值得关注。 总体而言，日本央行此次的决议基本没有出乎外界预期。因为一周前，日本首相石破茂领导的执政党刚 刚失去参议院多数席位，因此外界早已有普遍预期，在日本当前政治前景不确定性加剧的背景下，日本 央行本月将会按兵不动。 日本央行将基准政策利率维持在0.5%不变，货币政策委员会的所有九名成员都支持这一决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The BOJ raised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with median projections now at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous forecasts of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% respectively [3]. - The economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 was adjusted from 0.5% to 0.6% year-on-year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The BOJ noted that economic outlook risks are skewed to the downside, with significant uncertainties stemming from trade policies [6]. - Recent progress in trade agreements between Japan and the United States, including a $550 billion investment from Japan, is expected to influence the economic landscape [6]. Future Rate Hike Expectations - The BOJ reiterated that it would consider raising interest rates if economic and price developments align with its expectations, although no specific timeline for future rate hikes was provided [7]. - There is a consensus among various institutions that a rate hike in October is likely, with expectations of a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [8][9][10].