Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset indicated that President Trump is "very likely" to nominate a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the traditional holiday season at the end of this year, as Powell's term is set to expire in May 2026 [1] Group 1 - Powell's current term as Federal Reserve Chairman will end in May 2026 [1] - President Trump has publicly called for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and has demanded Powell's resignation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chair if nominated, advocating for more aggressive interest rate cuts in December [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Policy** - Hassett suggests that the Federal Reserve should implement a larger rate cut, ideally by 50 basis points, although he anticipates a more modest 25 basis points cut [1] - He expresses surprise at Powell's lack of aggressive rate cuts given the prolonged government shutdown and better-than-expected inflation data [1] - **Economic Impact of Government Shutdown** - Hassett estimates that each week of government shutdown results in a reduction of approximately $15 billion in U.S. GDP [1] - **Inflation Data** - The inflation data for September was reported to be lower than expected, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump may announce a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the end of the year, with Powell's term ending in May next year. The candidate pool has been narrowed down to five finalists [2][3]. Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to conduct a second round of interviews with the current list of candidates next month, followed by submitting a more streamlined nomination list to the President [3]. - The five finalists include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, along with leading candidates Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder from BlackRock [3][4]. Candidate Dynamics - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as the frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which many Fed observers believe will be a key factor in this significant personnel decision during Trump's remaining term [4]. - Trump has previously indicated he is not considering Mnuchin for the position, but sources suggest Mnuchin could still be a potential contender if Trump is dissatisfied with other candidates [3][5]. Recent Developments - Trump had considered announcing a successor earlier this year due to dissatisfaction with Powell's refusal to cut interest rates, but a vacancy created by the resignation of a Fed governor allowed for a new appointment [6]. - Mnuchin has initiated a strategy to delay the nomination process, conducting interviews with 11 candidates publicly [7]. Monetary Policy Context - The public selection process has encouraged candidates to engage in the monetary policy debate, with Mnuchin amplifying calls for the Fed to consider more aggressive rate cuts [8]. - The Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, but there is a push from some, including Miran, for a larger cut of 50 basis points, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [9]. Timing and Implications - Traditionally, the White House announces a new Fed chair three to four months before the current chair's term ends, allowing the incoming chair to guide market expectations on interest rates. However, an early announcement could put the successor in a difficult position regarding future policy decisions [10]. - The new Fed chair is likely to take over Miran's current position on the Fed board, which will allow them to participate in upcoming rate decision meetings before officially starting their term in mid-May [10].

Core Viewpoint - The White House economic advisor, Hassett, did not comment on the timeline for the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman [1] Group 1 - The lack of commentary from the White House economic advisor may indicate uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve leadership transition [1]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran is a potential candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, which could indicate a shift towards a policy of dollar depreciation and low interest rates under future economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Stephen Miran is a Harvard-trained economist with a background in fiscal and trade policy, having served in the Treasury Department during Trump's first term and worked at Hudson Bay Capital [9][10]. - Miran has also been a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, indicating his alignment with conservative economic policies [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - According to Federal Reserve rules, the Chair can only be selected from current Fed governors, and current Chair Jerome Powell has not confirmed his future plans after his term ends in May 2026 [6]. - Typically, Fed Chairs resign from the board entirely after their term, which raises questions about Powell's potential continuation as a governor [7][8].

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin does not wish to be nominated to replace Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, stating that Mnuchin prefers to remain in his current position [1] - Trump is considering four candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, but he does not plan to make a quick decision [1] - The unexpected early resignation of Fed Governor Quarles has heightened market interest in who will fill the vacancy, as the successor is likely to become the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm payroll data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2] - The July non-farm payroll data showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below market expectations, and previous months' data were revised downwards [2] - Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner has raised concerns about the integrity of employment data, which is crucial for global investors [2] Group 3 - Trump reiterated claims of "manipulated" data despite assertions from former officials that the BLS Commissioner does not participate in data details and that data revisions are standard [3] - Hassett defended Trump's decision to fire the BLS Commissioner, suggesting that the data revision process needs clearer explanations and that the BLS should modernize its data collection methods [3] - Trump criticized the current data collection process as outdated and overly politicized [3]

正在整理出美联储主席候选人名单。 美联储理事会将空出两个席位。 将为美联储的职位进行面试。 美国财长贝森特：不确定不降息的理由是什么。 重申鲍威尔如果继续留任，将是极为反常的。 预计美联储主席提名将于年底前公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that a new Federal Reserve Chair nominee may be announced in December or January [1] Group 1 - The announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair nominee is anticipated to have significant implications for monetary policy and market stability [1]

关于美联储主席提名，"我们并不着急"。 特朗普曾表示不会解雇鲍威尔。 美国财长贝森特：美联储对关税的分析"有些偏差"。 不会评论美联储主席提名的相关流程。 对知名经济学家埃里安建议鲍威尔辞职感到有些意外。 ...

智通财经7月23日电，美国财长贝森特表示，在美联储主席提名问题上，不急于求成；有很多实力强劲 的美联储候选人，包括理事会成员在内。 ...