美国可能加强对委内瑞拉制裁限制其原油出口，以及以色列可能袭击伊朗基础设施，这些因素都增加了 油价上行风险。但石油需求疲软，加上欧佩克联盟和非欧佩克产油国增产，将在未来几个季度加剧价格 下行压力。沙特阿拉伯将7月销往亚洲的原油价格下调至近两个月低点。在欧佩克联盟同意7月日增产 41.1万桶后，此次降价幅度小于预期。沙特一直主张更大幅度增产，这是其夺回市场份额并约束欧佩克 联盟成员国过度生产战略的一部分。汇丰银行表示："根据我们估算，随着夏季石油需求回升并在7-8月 达到峰值，与欧佩克联盟增产相匹配，二三季度市场将趋于平衡。此后欧佩克联盟加速增产将导致2025 年第四季度出现比此前预期更大的供应过剩。" 美东时间周五（6月6日），美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加13.9万人，尽管较 上月数据有所放缓，但仍高于市场预期。失业率则维持在4.2%不变。美联储哈克表示，不确定性使得 预测货币政策前景变得非常困难。在存在不确定性的情况下，美联储仍有可能在今年晚些时候降息。美 国5月非农就业报告是"稳健的"，关税的影响尚未完全显现。美联储的利率政策具有适度的限制性。现 在是美联储保持稳定并观察数据的时候了。 ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场对中美领导人通话成果的乐观预期提振投资者对经济增长和油价需求前景的预 期，石油软实力向上，周四（6月5日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质 原油7月期货结算价每桶涨0.52美元至63.37美元，涨幅0.83%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月期货结算 价每桶涨0.48美元至65.34美元，涨幅0.74%。美东时间4日上午，中美两国元首同意双方团队继续落实 好日内瓦共识，尽快举行新一轮会谈。报道称此次通话应特朗普要求进行，但未透露两国领导人对话的 更多细节。通话后，特朗普称将举行更多中美贸易谈判。 尽管下半年欧佩克联盟预期增产可能导致市场供应过剩，但地缘政治事件和加拿大野火可能削减石油产 量，这些因素仍在为油价提供支撑。沙特阿美把7月份销往亚洲的轻质原油价格对阿曼和迪拜原油价格 议价每桶下调至1.20美元，比6月份每桶低0.20美元。分析认为，在油价处于波动区间中段之际，原油市 场继续有很多噪音。从交易量看，尽管欧佩克目前仍存在超产问题，似乎市场在看多石油。 当前，原油供应增幅有限，而旺季消费正逐步回升，这将助力油价延续震荡修复的走势。关税阶段性缓 和，对市场风险偏好以 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding trends as they reshape environments, opportunities, and entire industries, highlighting that many individuals may find themselves outpaced by changes despite their hard work [2][3][5] - AI is presented as a prime example of a trend that can be integrated into various job functions to enhance efficiency, suggesting that repetitive tasks should be delegated to AI to focus on more valuable activities [4][10] - The article discusses how trends can guide career decisions, such as whether to deepen expertise in a current field or pivot to a new one, and how tools like ChatGPT can significantly improve work efficiency [6][10] Group 2 - The author introduces the concept of "soft power," which encompasses skills like judgment, emotional understanding, and interpersonal relationships, asserting that these are crucial in the AI era [15][16] - Real-life examples illustrate that while AI can handle data processing and logical reasoning, it cannot replicate the human ability to connect emotionally and build trust, which is essential in fields like sales and public relations [17][19] - The article suggests that individuals should leverage AI as a "super tool" to handle standard tasks, allowing them to concentrate on uniquely human capabilities such as empathy and creativity [22][23] Group 3 - The article proposes three strategies for individuals to find their unique "irreplaceability" in the AI era: using AI for repetitive tasks, cultivating genuine relationships based on shared values, and developing a personal brand through consistent output of valuable content [21][24][26] - It emphasizes the importance of creating a "minimum replicable influence," where individuals can share their expertise in a way that benefits others, thereby building a personal brand that stands out in a crowded digital landscape [26][28] - The overarching message is that success in the AI era will not come from being faster or smarter than AI, but from identifying and amplifying the unique human qualities that AI cannot replicate [28][29]

昨天，美国特朗普政府声称将积极地撤销中国学生签证，同时加强审查今后所有来自中国内地和香港的签证申请。 值得一提的是，这倒不仅仅针对中国，美国近期还暂停了对赴美留学、交流的外国公民在海外申请签证需要进行的面谈，并加强对申请者社交媒体帖子的 审查。 风雨欲来，当美国对中国等多个国家逐渐开始"闭关锁国"，世界又如何看待今天的美国呢？ 近期Skift（美国权威旅游行业新闻网站）做过一份调查报告，当时我还觉得《特朗普政策或将导致美国旅游业衰退》这个标题有点夸张，现在看颇有先见 之明。 01 美国驻华大使馆公众号5月29日截图 从具体调研内容来看，Skift问了来自五个国家的1250名游客："特朗普执政时期，你们有去美国的旅游计划吗？" 结果，有46%的人当场回答"那不可能"。 更离谱的是，加拿大受访者"不去"的比例是62%，德国人"不去"是59%。 这不是"不想去"，而是"躲着走"。 前阵子，我和一个中国工作多年的法国老友聊到今年暑期安排，他也是类似态度，"Xi，我宁可去你们宁夏看沙漠，也不想在纽约机场被问十分钟'你来干 嘛的'。" 听起来像段子，实际上是趋势，而数据也已经开口说话了。 也就是说，美国成了全球184个经 ...

每经编辑｜毕陆名 据央视新闻26日消息，当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普威胁称，联邦政府将可能不再继续向哈佛大学提供新的拨款，并要求校方提供所有国际学生的姓名及 国籍信息，以便进一步审查。 《日本经济新闻》网站文章认为，来自全球的优秀人才曾支撑起美国的繁荣，而特朗普政府正试图切断这一循环。 近期在英国伦敦发布的《2025年全球软实力指数》显示，美国在国际社会的"声誉"指标明显下滑。软实力概念的提出者、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院前院长约 瑟夫·奈在去世前曾撰文说，美国吸引其他国家的能力已日渐衰落，特朗普政府的种种做法正严重损害美国的"软实力"。 斯普雷策表示，美国教育委员会在4月就给美国国务院和国土安全部致信，要求他们如果要撤销学生签证，终止学生及交流访问学者项目，就需要提供更多 信息，但并没有收到回应。 斯普雷策说，她担心准入学的国际学生觉得来美国风险太大，从而导致学生数量开始下降，而国际学生去年一年就给美国带来了430亿美元的经济收益。 另据新华社报道，针对特朗普政府对哈佛大学的"国际禁招令"，哈佛大学教授瑞安·伊诺斯称，美国政府正试图对一个美国机构施加惩罚，原因仅仅是这个 机构没有屈服于美国政府的政治意愿。 美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses Japan's economic challenges and its efforts to enhance soft power during the "lost thirty years" following the economic bubble burst in the early 1990s [1][4]. Economic Context - Japan's economy peaked in the late 1980s, with a notable cultural phenomenon referred to as the "thousand yen husband," indicating a relatively high cost of living [2]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, prompting Japanese investments abroad, particularly in real estate [2]. - The economic bubble burst in 1992 resulted in a significant drop in property prices, with many apartments becoming available for under 50 million yen [3]. Soft Power Development - During the "lost thirty years," Japan focused on promoting its culinary culture globally and enhancing its entertainment industry, particularly through companies like Sony [4]. - The rise of the dollar store phenomenon in Japan, featuring affordable Chinese goods, helped mitigate the economic downturn's impact on living standards [3]. Youth and Economic Sentiment - The stagnation of the economy has led to a pessimistic outlook among Japanese youth, with a trend of "lying flat" and a lack of motivation to strive for success [5][6]. - The older generation retains a sense of energy and innovation, contrasting sharply with the younger generation's experiences of failure and economic hardship [5]. International Relations and Economic Position - The article highlights Japan's declining status in the international economic landscape, particularly in comparison to China's rising economic power [7]. - The perception of Japan's economic position has shifted, with a notable comment from a Japanese economic leader indicating that Japan's second-place status was achieved after reaching a peak, while China's second place is seen as a continuing development [7]. Challenges for Chinese Enterprises - The article notes the challenges faced by Chinese companies in expanding overseas, emphasizing the need for innovation and the development of proprietary products to sustain long-term growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises have significantly risen on the international stage, showcasing impressive growth and transformation, becoming key players in the global economy and reshaping international trade, investment, and innovation patterns [1][3]. Group 1: Hard Power of Chinese Enterprises - In the 1995 Fortune Global 500 list, the United States had 151 companies, while Japan had 149. By 2024, the U.S. has 139 companies, and China has 128, spanning various industries such as construction, oil, insurance, banking, and technology [3]. - Among approximately 10,500 companies with revenues exceeding $1 billion globally, 25% are from China, surpassing the 19% from the U.S., indicating a greater number of large enterprises in China [3]. Group 2: Global Presence and Investment Trends - About 70% of large Chinese enterprises have subsidiaries in the U.S., over 60% in Germany, around 40% in the U.K. and the Netherlands, and at least 30% in Canada, Brazil, and Italy. Chinese enterprises are also expanding in Africa [4]. - In 2023, Chinese enterprises shifted their greenfield investments from developed economies to Asia and other emerging markets, reflecting a strategic response to changes in the global economic and political landscape [4]. Group 3: Soft Power of Chinese Brands - Historically, U.S. brands dominated the Brand Finance Global 500 list, accounting for about 40%. However, the share of Chinese brands increased from 4% in 2010 to an expected 14% by 2025 [5]. - Chinese brands have gained global recognition in sectors such as e-commerce, media and entertainment, telecommunications, and electric vehicles, altering perceptions of Chinese products beyond the traditional "Made in China" label [5]. - Despite global economic fragmentation, Chinese enterprises are optimizing their overseas strategies and focusing on the vast domestic market, with potential for further enhancement of their soft power [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "soft power" introduced by Joseph Nye, emphasizing its importance in U.S. foreign policy and its decline in recent years [3][5][10] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant breakthrough for China, achieving "91% tariff mutual exemption + 24% suspension of additional tariffs," marking a historical surpassing of the 2018 trade war [3][10] - Nye's definition of soft power focuses on influencing others to adopt one's goals voluntarily, contrasting with hard power, which relies on military and economic strength [5][7][10] Group 2 - The article highlights China's ability to win the tariff battle through "vertical integration" and systematic approaches, exemplified by the military cooperation with Pakistan and the automotive innovations by BYD [12][14][16] - BYD's e-platform is presented as a complex system that integrates various technologies to meet the demands of electric vehicles, showcasing a shift from component optimization to comprehensive system innovation [12][14] - The article notes that China's comprehensive industrial capabilities and strategic initiatives, such as the "dual circulation strategy" and the Belt and Road Initiative, have enhanced its trade relationships and resilience against external pressures [16][18]

Core Insights - The Chinese technology market is experiencing significant growth, with a transaction volume of 1.6 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, projected to exceed 6.8 trillion yuan for the entire year, indicating a robust upward trend in technology contracts [1][2] - The growth in technology exports, particularly in emerging sectors like biomedicine and clean energy, reflects a shift in global industrial chain value driven by technological innovation [1][2] - The establishment of a unified technology trading platform is expected to enhance China's ability to define global value in technology [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first four months of the year, 228,000 technology contracts were registered, with a transaction value of 1.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - The technology service industry has seen an average annual revenue growth of 12.3% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1] - The expected growth rate for technology contract transaction value in 2024 is 11.2%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for eight consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sectoral Insights - Technology exports are anticipated to grow by 8.8% in 2024, primarily in biomedicine, clean energy, and new materials, showcasing the focus on emerging industries [1][2] - Key technology transfer institutions facilitated 968 international technology transfer projects, with a total transaction value of 18.16 billion yuan, highlighting the importance of technology intermediary services [1][3] Group 3: Strategic Framework - The dynamic interaction between science, technology, and industry is crucial for driving innovation and upgrading industries, with a focus on creating a closed-loop system for value innovation [3][4] - The need for a unified technology trading rule system is emphasized to overcome regional barriers and enhance operational synergy [3] - Revisions to technology contract recognition rules and improvements in intellectual property protection are necessary to stabilize value output and ensure compliance in technology transactions [3][4] Group 4: Talent Development - The development of a "technology manager" workforce is identified as a key area for enhancing market adaptability and addressing gaps in technology transfer [4] - The shift in technology export focus towards emerging industries necessitates the establishment of standard-setting authority to transition from "following innovation" to "leading innovation" [4] - A comprehensive value assessment system is required to ensure quality in the growth of technology contracts, emphasizing the importance of innovation effectiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films entering the U.S. signifies an extension of trade sanctions from goods to services, which will significantly impact Hollywood and its performance in the Chinese market [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Hollywood - The U.S. tariffs and China's response to reduce the import of American films will create substantial challenges for Hollywood, pushing it into a more difficult situation [1]. - Hollywood's revenue from the Chinese market has seen a drastic decline, with box office earnings dropping from 216 billion RMB in 2017 to only 62.73 billion RMB in 2024, representing a decrease from 38.7% to 15.1% of global box office revenue [4][10]. - The number of Hollywood films generating over 1 billion RMB in China has decreased for two consecutive years, indicating a significant downturn in market performance [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese film market has grown significantly, with over 80,000 screens and a total box office of 425.02 billion RMB in 2024, making it the second-largest globally [3]. - Hollywood films once accounted for half of their global box office revenue from China, but this share has diminished as the market dynamics shift [3][10]. - The competition from streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube has further eroded traditional cinema attendance, with only 34% of U.S. adults preferring to watch films in theaters [10]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The average production cost of Hollywood films exceeds 200 million USD, and rising tariffs on imported materials will increase production costs and strain profitability [8][9]. - The overall U.S. film box office revenue is projected to decline from approximately 86 billion USD in 2023 to around 70 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the industry [10]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which includes film exports, may be adversely affected by the restrictions on Hollywood films in China, despite the relatively small direct contribution of film revenues to the overall service trade [12][14]. Group 4: Cultural and Strategic Considerations - Hollywood's cultural influence and the portrayal of American values through its films are at risk due to the increasing isolation from international markets [14]. - The U.S. government's tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, further complicating Hollywood's ability to access key markets [13]. - The decline in Hollywood's global market share, which has fallen from over 60% a decade ago to 51% in 2023, underscores the industry's diminishing competitive edge [10].