Workflow
软实力
icon
Search documents
软实力背后的系统博弈,中国凭什么让美国关税大棒抡空了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 22:43
Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "soft power" introduced by Joseph Nye, emphasizing its importance in U.S. foreign policy and its decline in recent years [3][5][10] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant breakthrough for China, achieving "91% tariff mutual exemption + 24% suspension of additional tariffs," marking a historical surpassing of the 2018 trade war [3][10] - Nye's definition of soft power focuses on influencing others to adopt one's goals voluntarily, contrasting with hard power, which relies on military and economic strength [5][7][10] Group 2 - The article highlights China's ability to win the tariff battle through "vertical integration" and systematic approaches, exemplified by the military cooperation with Pakistan and the automotive innovations by BYD [12][14][16] - BYD's e-platform is presented as a complex system that integrates various technologies to meet the demands of electric vehicles, showcasing a shift from component optimization to comprehensive system innovation [12][14] - The article notes that China's comprehensive industrial capabilities and strategic initiatives, such as the "dual circulation strategy" and the Belt and Road Initiative, have enhanced its trade relationships and resilience against external pressures [16][18]
邓正红软实力思想解析:在全球技术创新网络中逐步掌握产业链价值定义权
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 14:14
Core Insights - The Chinese technology market is experiencing significant growth, with a transaction volume of 1.6 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, projected to exceed 6.8 trillion yuan for the entire year, indicating a robust upward trend in technology contracts [1][2] - The growth in technology exports, particularly in emerging sectors like biomedicine and clean energy, reflects a shift in global industrial chain value driven by technological innovation [1][2] - The establishment of a unified technology trading platform is expected to enhance China's ability to define global value in technology [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first four months of the year, 228,000 technology contracts were registered, with a transaction value of 1.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - The technology service industry has seen an average annual revenue growth of 12.3% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1] - The expected growth rate for technology contract transaction value in 2024 is 11.2%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for eight consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sectoral Insights - Technology exports are anticipated to grow by 8.8% in 2024, primarily in biomedicine, clean energy, and new materials, showcasing the focus on emerging industries [1][2] - Key technology transfer institutions facilitated 968 international technology transfer projects, with a total transaction value of 18.16 billion yuan, highlighting the importance of technology intermediary services [1][3] Group 3: Strategic Framework - The dynamic interaction between science, technology, and industry is crucial for driving innovation and upgrading industries, with a focus on creating a closed-loop system for value innovation [3][4] - The need for a unified technology trading rule system is emphasized to overcome regional barriers and enhance operational synergy [3] - Revisions to technology contract recognition rules and improvements in intellectual property protection are necessary to stabilize value output and ensure compliance in technology transactions [3][4] Group 4: Talent Development - The development of a "technology manager" workforce is identified as a key area for enhancing market adaptability and addressing gaps in technology transfer [4] - The shift in technology export focus towards emerging industries necessitates the establishment of standard-setting authority to transition from "following innovation" to "leading innovation" [4] - A comprehensive value assessment system is required to ensure quality in the growth of technology contracts, emphasizing the importance of innovation effectiveness [4]
“关税大棒”下的好莱坞影业之殇
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-05-16 09:02
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films entering the U.S. signifies an extension of trade sanctions from goods to services, which will significantly impact Hollywood and its performance in the Chinese market [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Hollywood - The U.S. tariffs and China's response to reduce the import of American films will create substantial challenges for Hollywood, pushing it into a more difficult situation [1]. - Hollywood's revenue from the Chinese market has seen a drastic decline, with box office earnings dropping from 216 billion RMB in 2017 to only 62.73 billion RMB in 2024, representing a decrease from 38.7% to 15.1% of global box office revenue [4][10]. - The number of Hollywood films generating over 1 billion RMB in China has decreased for two consecutive years, indicating a significant downturn in market performance [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese film market has grown significantly, with over 80,000 screens and a total box office of 425.02 billion RMB in 2024, making it the second-largest globally [3]. - Hollywood films once accounted for half of their global box office revenue from China, but this share has diminished as the market dynamics shift [3][10]. - The competition from streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube has further eroded traditional cinema attendance, with only 34% of U.S. adults preferring to watch films in theaters [10]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The average production cost of Hollywood films exceeds 200 million USD, and rising tariffs on imported materials will increase production costs and strain profitability [8][9]. - The overall U.S. film box office revenue is projected to decline from approximately 86 billion USD in 2023 to around 70 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the industry [10]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which includes film exports, may be adversely affected by the restrictions on Hollywood films in China, despite the relatively small direct contribution of film revenues to the overall service trade [12][14]. Group 4: Cultural and Strategic Considerations - Hollywood's cultural influence and the portrayal of American values through its films are at risk due to the increasing isolation from international markets [14]. - The U.S. government's tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, further complicating Hollywood's ability to access key markets [13]. - The decline in Hollywood's global market share, which has fallen from over 60% a decade ago to 51% in 2023, underscores the industry's diminishing competitive edge [10].
马小军:稳步推进包容性软实力建设正当其时
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-15 23:43
Group 1 - The article discusses the decline of American soft power and its implications for global leadership, highlighting that more countries are distancing themselves from the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. government's recent policies have exacerbated domestic social divisions, contributing to the decline of its soft power [2][3] - The U.S. has initiated a global tariff war, undermining the existing international economic order and damaging its credibility [3] Group 2 - China's soft power is on the rise, with its global ranking improving due to its stable development and the promotion of initiatives like the Belt and Road [4][7] - The article emphasizes China's diplomatic focus on cooperation, stability, and mutual benefit, contrasting with the U.S.'s confrontational approach [4][8] - China's cultural exports, including literature and entertainment, are gaining international traction, showcasing its growing influence [5][6] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of China continuing to strengthen its global narrative and improve mutual understanding with other countries [7][9] - It suggests that China should actively represent the interests of the Global South and enhance its role in global governance [8][9] - The potential for technological collaboration and support for developing countries is emphasized as a means to bridge gaps and enhance China's soft power [8]
邓正红软实力思想解析:当前油市高波动是旧秩序松动与新规则孕育的阵痛期表征
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 03:16
Group 1 - Current volatility in the oil market reflects a transitional phase between the old order and new rules, indicating a struggle for energy discourse power among major global players [1][4] - The effectiveness of soft power strategies, such as diplomatic mediation and strategic negotiations, is crucial for countries to gain an advantage in the energy power shift [1][4] - The ongoing crisis in South Asia demonstrates the dual role of soft power in crisis management, where military actions undermine regional trust while diplomatic interventions can restore dialogue [1] Group 2 - The recent progress in US-China trade negotiations highlights the strategic use of soft power tools, with China shifting the focus from unilateral pressure to mutual benefits [2] - China's approach to expanding cooperation lists aims to increase the cost of confrontation for the US, showcasing a typical soft power counter-strategy [2] - The dispute between Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan over oil production reveals the complexities of soft power in the energy sector, with Kazakhstan's overproduction challenging OPEC's internal constraints [2] Group 3 - China's adjustment in crude oil import structure and the penetration of clean energy illustrate the rise of non-traditional soft power, positioning China as a key player in global supply-demand rebalancing [3] - The potential outcomes of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations could redefine the geopolitical soft power landscape in the Middle East, depending on the negotiation strategies employed by both parties [3] - The EU's push for regulatory standards in trade negotiations signifies an attempt to reshape global energy trade rules through normative power expansion [3]
邓正红软实力思想解析:以独门绝技核心科技打造具有国际价值创新力的民族品牌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 11:08
Core Insights - Chinese brands need to build a foundation of quality and use value innovation as an engine to transition from "price competition" to "value competition," aiming to define future demand with unique capabilities, making "Chinese quality" a new global business language [1][6] Group 1: Soft Power and Quality - The essence of soft power is "value recognition," with quality being the core medium for building this recognition [2] - A multi-dimensional quality system shapes comprehensive soft power, integrating design innovation, production stability, and service responsiveness [2] - Quality technology competitiveness must shift from mere compliance with international standards to actively participating in global standard-setting [2] Group 2: Value Innovation and Brand Development - Value innovation is the highest goal, aiming to "define future demand" rather than just meet existing market needs [2] - The integration of "Chinese quality" and "Chinese intelligence" is essential for enhancing brand value through technological innovation [1][3] - Brands should embed cultural concepts like "harmony and coexistence" into quality standards and narratives, transforming products into flexible carriers of knowledge value [4] Group 3: Ecosystem and Collaboration - The ultimate competition in soft power is the resilience of ecosystems, emphasizing "soft-hard synergy" in traditional manufacturing [3][5] - New industries should break away from "single-point breakthroughs" and establish collaborative mechanisms among technology alliances, application scenarios, and policy adaptations [4] - The establishment of a "quality credit score" system can link corporate quality performance with financing and tax policies, creating market incentives for high-quality products [5] Group 4: Global Responsibility and Strategic Evolution - Chinese brands must transition from "physical competition" to "intellectual competition" and then to "emotional competition," with quality as the foundation and value innovation as the driving force [5][6] - The evolution of organizational forms towards "relationship value" instead of "element value" allows companies to transform from participants in the value chain to weavers of the value network [6] - The integration of Eastern philosophies into business ethics and industry logic can redefine global commercial paradigms, offering a creative response to modernity's challenges [6]
“软实力”理论奠基者逝世,在美国软实力危机时
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-10 10:24
软实力衰退与否,有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者,他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻—— 美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式,从内部被破坏。 以下文章来源于嬉笑创客 ,作者CB 嬉笑创客 . 谈创业事,谈经济,谈生活 本文来自微信公众号: 嬉笑创客 ,作者:CB,头图来自:视觉中国 国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈 (Joseph Nye) 在5月6日去世,享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷子,我也一样。 但要注意,视角不同,对软实力的判读会完全不同。 对于老特的MAGA基本盘来说,美国的软实力可能正如日中天、万国来朝。对于这群人而言,原先有强大的软实力但毫不运用,就像段誉有着震古烁 今的内力储备但不知如何使用,是彻头彻尾的浪费,直到老特上台,犹如萧峰战神附体,把80%的实力打出了150%的威力,是真实软实力的大提 升。 这也是老特班子的内宣口径。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看,尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落,他很可能从来没像今天一样,强烈地感受到下 坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前,在老特的上一任期,他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括:"川普担任总统四年,对我 ...
“软实力”理论奠基者逝世,在美国软实力危机时
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-10 05:26
国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈(Joseph Nye)在5月6日去世,享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷 子,我也一样。 软实力衰退与否,有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者,他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻——美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式,从内部被破坏。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看,尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落,他很可能从来没像今天一样, 强烈地感受到下坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前,在老特的上一任期,他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括:"川普担任总统四 年,对我、对美国和对世界来说都很煎熬。他很难相处,因为他对国际事务的情境智力很低,而且他高度自恋,限制了他的情绪智 力。" 一个难相处的人不一定是坏的共事者。有的领导很难相处,对下要求严格、挑剔,但你知道他会让你提升进步,并且分利益的时候 公平甚至大方,你不太会有怨言。但如果这个领导反复无常、苛刻且理由不能服众,很多时候让人觉得只是为了挑刺而挑刺,以批 评来立威,你不会敬佩,也不会想追随。 对外和对内不在自己阵营的人,老特无疑都是那个"难相处"的人。如果对内还有整体国力提升这样的业绩可以交待,对外 ...
“中国品牌价值500强”发布!深圳(湾区)国际品牌周开幕
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-05-09 12:55
南都讯 记者黄璐 5月9日,第九届"深圳(湾区)国际品牌周"暨2025年中国品牌日·深圳地方特色活动开 幕大会在深圳广电大厦举行。本届品牌周以"品牌引领未来,创新驱动湾区"为主题,"2025中国品牌价 值500强"中英文榜单独家发布,"国际信誉品牌""深圳(湾区)知名品牌"近400项品牌成果集中亮相展 示,国际品牌专家、知名企业领袖发表主题演讲,探索科技革命和产业变革时代品牌发展新路径。 深圳工业总会会长吴光权表示,本届品牌周旨在将深圳品牌建设的成功经验辐射至大湾区,推动湾区企 业共创国际化品牌。未来,将联合政产学研多方力量,为打造"更具时代引领性的深圳品牌"贡献智慧与 力量。 榜单独家发布,彰显品牌发展硬实力 每年在达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上发布全球品牌价值500强的国际著名品牌价值评估咨询机构Brand Finance,联合深圳工业总会在第九届"深圳(湾区)国际品牌周"上独家发布"2025中国品牌价值500 强"中英文榜单。 同时,Brand Finance中国公司联合创始人、总裁陈忆登对榜单进行解读。今年,粤港澳大湾区109个品 牌上榜"2025中国品牌价值500强"。深圳共有34个品牌上榜,其中,荣获" ...
知日派学者约瑟夫·奈逝世,曾提醒不要低估中国
日经中文网· 2025-05-09 03:31
这条路线被称为Nye Initiative(奈倡议)。如果没有他的行动,美日和美韩同盟可能已经大大 削弱。约瑟夫・奈是拯救美日同盟的智慧巨人。 约瑟夫・奈在2024年曾访问日本(2024年11月,东京大手町) 国际政治学者、美国哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授约瑟夫・奈去世。作为知日派学者,约瑟夫・奈 致力于深化美日同盟。在1990年代提出了"软实力"的重要性。不要低估中国的国力。这是他在晚年 留下的警告之一…… 5月6日,国际政治学者、美国哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授约瑟夫・奈(Joseph Nye)去世,享年88 岁。哈佛大学在5月7日公布了消息。作为知日派学者,约瑟夫・奈致力于深化美日同盟。在1990年 代提出了不依赖军事力量等"软实力"的重要性,倡导将其应用于外交政策。 日本经济新闻(中文版:日经中文网)坂口幸裕 华盛顿报道 约瑟夫・奈:拯救美日同盟的智慧巨人,曾提醒不要低估中国 秋田浩之: 约瑟夫·奈作为提出"软实力"概念的著名学者,这位哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授在 亚太地区所留下的功绩同样不可估量。 在冷战结束后不久的1990年代初期,美国国内曾一度掀起大幅削减驻亚洲美军的呼声。担任 克林顿政府国防部助理部长的 ...