Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 29 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for silver rising over 3% and gold and apple contracts increasing over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1465.58 points, up 1.21 points or 0.08% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - International gold prices surpassed $3800 per ounce and silver prices exceeded $47 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand [2] - Both gold and silver have seen year-to-date increases of over 40%, making them standout assets amid monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: Apple Market Dynamics - The apple contract reached a six-month high, supported by strong consumer demand and stable prices for quality goods, despite a slight decline in inventory turnover [3] - The expectation for higher opening prices for the new apple season also contributed to the positive market sentiment [3] Group 4: Black Metals Sector - The black metals sector continued to decline, with coking coal contracts dropping by 4.98%, reflecting a cooling market sentiment and nearing the end of downstream replenishment demand [4] - The overall fundamentals for black metals are expected to remain weak in the short term, with market participants awaiting further demand recovery post-holiday [4] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Market - The industrial silicon market remains oversupplied, with stable supply but no significant demand improvement, leading to a drop of 4.33% in the main contract [5] - The market sentiment has cooled, but prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a focus on inventory pressures in the fourth quarter [5]

贸易摩擦提升市场避险需求。 数据显示，受美国反复调整关税政策影响，全球经贸摩擦再次升温。 从综合指数看，7月全球经贸摩擦指数为110，处于高位。全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额同比上升6.6%， 环比上升27.6%。 从国别指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）中，美国、欧盟和巴西的全球经贸摩擦指数位居前 三，美国的全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额最多，连续13个月居首。 黄金屡创历史新高，现货黄金突破3800美元/盎司，沪金收盘报收866.52元/克，涨1.35%。 。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have steadily risen, reaching approximately $3,750, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - On September 29, gold prices broke historical records, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, with a monthly increase of about $350 and a daily rise of over 1% [1] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, rising over $1.00 to $47.1 per ounce, reflecting a 2.2% increase, supported by tight supply and inflows into precious metal ETFs [1] Group 2 - The market's expectation of moderate inflation has reinforced bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [2] - The potential partial shutdown of the U.S. government due to unpassed funding bills has increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver [2] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar around 98.00 has made gold and silver more attractive to overseas buyers, further supporting their price increases [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold maintains a bullish outlook, with key resistance levels between $3,800 and $3,810, while initial support is at $3,722 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold shows overbought conditions, suggesting potential for technical consolidation or a pullback before a new upward trend [3] - Silver has shown a strong short-term trend, with support levels at $45.50 and $45.00, and resistance at $47.00 and $48.00, indicating a potential for further testing of historical highs [4]

Core Insights - September witnessed a record surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching an all-time high of $3,791.08 per ounce on September 23, marking a monthly increase of nearly 8% and a year-to-date rise of 41.76% [3][4] - The increase in gold prices was driven by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, rising geopolitical risks, and sustained gold purchases by central banks [4][6] Group 1: Key Data Performance - Gold prices in London opened at $3,447.50 per ounce on September 1 and closed at $3,768.66 per ounce by September 26, reflecting a monthly increase of 10.91% [3] - In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D rose by 1.73% to 849.58 yuan per gram on September 23, while the price of 24K gold jewelry reached 1,100 yuan per gram [3] Group 2: Key Driving Events - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, with market expectations for further cuts in October and December at probabilities of 91.9% and 78.6%, respectively [4] - Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. stance on Russia and the Middle East situation, alongside a potential U.S. government shutdown, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for ten consecutive months, leading to a global gold demand of 1,249 tons in Q2 [4] Group 3: Market Summary for September - September's gold market demonstrated strong performance despite being traditionally a weak season, supported by the Fed's rate cut, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [6] - Although there was a brief pullback at the end of the month due to strong U.S. economic data, the overall trend indicates a bullish market with over 40% annual growth [6] Group 4: Outlook for October - Key events to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 28, which may result in the second rate cut of the year, and upcoming U.S. economic data such as CPI and PPI that could influence market expectations [7] - Geopolitical and policy risks, including the U.S. government shutdown and developments in the Middle East, may lead to short-term market fluctuations [7] Group 5: Price Trends and Institutional Views - TradingEconomics predicts gold prices may reach $3,497.47 by the end of the quarter, while Morgan Stanley suggests that during the rate cut cycle, gold prices are likely to remain in the range of $3,700 to $3,800 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to rise sharply due to sustained investment demand, heightened risk aversion from the impending U.S. government shutdown, and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, with gold prices surpassing $3,800 and silver breaking the $47 mark [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have seen significant increases, with silver rising approximately 5% over two trading days, reaching over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has also experienced a surge, gaining about 10% in the last three trading days and surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. - The recent market dynamics indicate a strong demand for precious metals, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which currently stands at a 90% probability for October [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing as the fiscal year ends, with certain federal agencies facing funding shortages, which could further drive gold prices up [3][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's personnel and its independence is contributing to market risk aversion, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals [4]. - Analysts suggest that the traditional stock-bond portfolio is becoming less effective in the face of rising inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to increased allocations in commodities, particularly gold [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Despite the bullish momentum in precious metals, analysts caution that profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Speculative funds have reduced their net long positions in gold futures by 1% as of September 23, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. - The upcoming national holidays may lead to typical position adjustments, which could increase short-term volatility in gold and silver prices [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,800 per ounce, marking a new historical high, and an increase of over 1% in a single day [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has accumulated an increase of nearly 45%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Spot silver also experienced a daily increase of 2.26%, reaching $47.09 per ounce, reflecting a positive trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The analysis attributes the strong performance of gold futures to several factors, including expectations of further monetary easing following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Increased geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The growth in global gold ETF holdings, along with robust domestic consumption demand, has created a synergistic effect supporting the upward trend in gold prices [1]

影响上，周初受到投资者对美联储进一步10月份再次降息的强烈可能性高达90%，这种近乎笃定的预 期，削弱了美元的吸引力，再加上地缘政治不确定性引发的持续避险需求，吸引了大量资金涌入黄金市 场，推动其价格一路高歌猛进刷新历史高点。 但之后由于阻力位获利了结，美联储诸多官员突然释放偏鹰派信号！减弱之前的鸽派前景，以及地缘局 势缓和和欧盟与美国达成关税协议，令市场避险情绪明显降温，美国周初请人数下降和美国第二季度 GDP被大幅上修等，推动美元指数继续强势反弹收涨，创近两周新高，打压金价回撤调整。 不过，最终受到逢低买盘，和美联储降息预期的支撑，以及周五美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终 值和美国9月一年期通胀率预期终等数据的利好而回升走强，最终持稳收阳。 黄金市场上周：国际黄金继续反弹走强，连续第6周收阳，虽在目标阻力位附近有所遇阻回撤，但动力 仍未明显减弱，基本面前景降息预期仍在，地缘局势及经济不确定性担忧持续，因而，对于后市来看， 依然还是保持看涨趋势不变。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3686.98美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点3683.62美元，便开始反弹走强，如 期触及看涨目标位，并于周二录得当周高点3790. ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: This week, gold futures prices showed a strong - side oscillatory pattern of "rallying, pulling back, and then stabilizing again". Influenced by factors such as the market's expectation of further easing after the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks boosting safe - haven demand, and the resonance of increased global gold ETF holdings and strong domestic consumption demand. Although there was a short - term pullback due to the resilience of US economic data and profit - taking by long positions, the medium - and long - term supporting factors remained unchanged, and the price quickly recovered and reached a new phased high. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks, combined with a surge in investment demand, provide multiple supports [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to mainly oscillate at a high level, with support at 805 - 812 and resistance at 838 - 845. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 faces pressure from profit - taking at high levels, with support at 845 - 850. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [11]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the main silver futures contract 2512 showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, with a weekly increase of 2.91%, and the closing price reached a record high since listing. It was mainly supported by the financial attribute premium under the strengthened Fed interest - rate cut expectation, the safe - haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and the fundamental support formed by industrial demand (photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles) and the supply - demand gap. The capital side shows that long - position confidence is stable, with both open interest and trading volume increasing simultaneously. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on interest - rate cut expectations, policy signals from Fed officials, and the position - holding risks brought by China's "National Day" holiday [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2512 was expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 9500 - 9800. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 10400 - 10500. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [36]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market continues to show a bullish trend, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, despite facing some resistance near target levels [1][3]. Market Performance - International gold prices opened at $3686.98 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3683.62, and then rebounded to a new historical high of $3790.68 before closing at $3762.45, marking a weekly increase of $75.47 or 2.05% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $107.06, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - A strong expectation of a 90% chance for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October weakened the dollar's appeal, driving funds into the gold market [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and a recent agreement between the EU and the US on tariffs contributed to a decrease in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices [3]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a drop in initial jobless claims and an upward revision of Q2 GDP, led to a rebound in the dollar index, which pressured gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on upcoming economic data, including the US August pending home sales index and the Dallas Fed business activity index, which are anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of further price increases if resistance levels are broken [6][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests a potential target of $4200 per ounce, driven by continued central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is gaining attention as the National Day holiday approaches, with various brands adjusting their gold jewelry prices, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer demand and pricing [1][3]. Price Trends - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and others are currently pricing their gold jewelry around 1108 CNY per gram, with slight variations among different brands [2][3]. - Chow Tai Fook confirmed that its "fixed price" gold products will see price increases starting in October, with an average increase expected to exceed 15% [3]. Emerging Trends - The "pain gold" trend is rapidly gaining popularity among young consumers, priced at 2800 CNY per gram, significantly higher than standard gold jewelry prices [4]. - Collaborations between traditional brands and popular culture, such as Chow Tai Fook's partnership with the game "Black Myth: Wukong," have resulted in substantial sales, exceeding 150 million CNY [5]. Market Dynamics - The gold market's performance is positively correlated with gold prices, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in international gold prices is driven by short-term expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold is shaped by a restructuring of the global monetary credit system, with a weakening of the dollar's dominance and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8].