Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a slight pullback, dropping to $3365.55, a decrease of approximately 0.18% from a two-week high [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.77% at 45282.47 points, the S&P 500 down 0.43% at 6439.32 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 21449.29 points [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Cook, citing sufficient reasons based on constitutional and legal grounds [1][3] - Trump accused Cook of "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" in financial matters, which he claimed undermined her credibility as a regulator [4] - If Cook is removed, Trump could appoint a fourth member to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially gaining a majority in the seven-member board [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 16.7% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September, while an 83.3% probability suggested a 25 basis point rate cut [6] - Major Wall Street institutions have become increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with several firms raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index [8] - Citigroup raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 6300 to 6600, while UBS increased its 2025 target from 6200 to 6600 [8] Group 4: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all goods imported from India, effective August 27 [8] - Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar stated that trade negotiations with the U.S. are ongoing, emphasizing the need to protect local farmers and small businesses [8] Group 5: U.S.-South Korea Relations - Trump discussed with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol the potential transfer of land ownership for U.S. military bases in South Korea, aiming to eliminate rental agreements [9] - Trump expressed a desire to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again, indicating a positive relationship and potential future discussions [12]

【冠通研究】 沪铜震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫尾盘翻绿。特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克， 加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，铜价承压。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco） 上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协 订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利 润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产 量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方 面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房地产依然拖 累下游需求，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。 但电网及新能源带来需求韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库，反映了短期内需求疲软， 供需宽松的格局。综合来看，基本面暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，无向上驱动 力。昨日美联储降息预期升温提振铜行情，今日美 ...

Group 1 - The French CAC index has dropped by 2%, reflecting overall market concerns about potential political instability in France [1][3] - France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 115%, making it one of the highest in Europe, prompting Prime Minister François Bérou to propose an annual spending cut of €44 billion [3] - The upcoming confidence vote on the spending cut proposal is expected to fail, leading to fears of either fiscal tightening or increased political uncertainty in France [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump is attempting to remove Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, which could impact the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1][4] - If successful, Trump's actions could result in three out of twelve FOMC members being appointed by him, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - The yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to its highest level since 2022, indicating market apprehension regarding economic stability [4] Group 3 - Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on China if it does not supply sufficient rare earth magnets to U.S. companies, escalating trade tensions [5] - The digital services tax (DST) imposed by certain countries, particularly in Europe, is also under threat, with Trump warning of significant tariff increases unless these taxes are revoked [5] - The DST currently generates approximately £800 million annually for the UK Treasury, which is already facing financial constraints ahead of the autumn budget [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and could lead to a shift towards more dovish monetary policy, impacting the U.S. dollar and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on the U.S. Dollar - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, the U.S. dollar weakened across the board, and short-term Treasury yields fell, while safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin saw increased demand [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions may undermine trust in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, leading investors to reassess risks associated with the U.S. market [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Trump's move has reignited doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts expressing concerns that this could compromise the Fed's ability to maintain an unbiased monetary policy [5][6]. - The potential for Trump to appoint more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises expectations for further interest rate cuts, which could further weaken the dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions have been relatively muted, with some analysts indicating that the full extent of potential risks has not yet been priced in, suggesting high uncertainty moving forward [9][10]. - There is an increased expectation for rate cuts in September and throughout the year, but concerns remain about Trump's potential influence over other Federal Reserve officials [11].

库克于2022年5月被美国前总统约瑟夫·拜登任命为美联储理事，是美联储的首位非裔女性理事。她的任期原本应到2038 年。今年以来，她一直支持美联储观望，拒绝因特朗普施压而降息。 库克聘请了知名辩护律师阿贝·洛厄尔担任其法律代表。洛厄尔表示，特朗普再次通过社交媒体"炒人"，展示了他的行 为缺乏正当程序和法律依据。洛厄尔宣布将采取一切所需手段，阻止特朗普的非法行为。洛厄尔曾经的客户包括特朗普 的女儿伊万卡、特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳、拜登的儿子亨特以及民主党前参议员罗伯特·梅嫩德斯。 特朗普在25日早些时候通过社交媒体宣布解雇库克，并提到了其盟友、美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特对库克的 指控。普尔特指控库克在2021年申请贷款时，先后将在密歇根州和佐治亚州的两处房产都申报为主要居所。根据美国的 贷款规定，主要居所比次要居所和投资房产的贷款条件更宽松。普尔特指责库克伪造银行文件和房产记录以获得更宽松 的贷款条件。特朗普认为此事说明库克存在欺骗行为还可能违反刑法，没有资格再担任美联储理事。 在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普史无前例宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克后，库克发表声明"硬刚"特朗普。美国国会民主党人 也集体发声谴责 ...

Group 1 - Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged false statements in mortgage documents [1] - The dismissal is perceived as a direct attack on the Federal Reserve's independence and its decision not to lower interest rates, which may negatively impact the credibility of the US dollar [1] - The price of gold is expected to benefit in the long term due to the implications of Trump's actions, with the price of gold closing at 781.12 yuan per gram, up 0.28% [1] Group 2 - Following trade agreements between multiple countries and the US, market sentiment has weakened, providing some support for dollar assets despite deteriorating US economic data and significant government deficit pressures [3] - The international gold price is currently facing resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, with ongoing market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising negative impacts from tariffs [3] - Gold prices are fluctuating within the range of 3300-3400 USD, with recommendations to construct bullish spread strategies using gold call options during price corrections [4]

可问题是，库克自己回应得很硬气。她说：特朗普没这个权力，她会继续履行职务。意思很明确：你说解雇就解雇？没门。 那为啥特朗普非要搞这个事？很简单，他要的不是库克一个人，而是整个美联储的控制权。 各位朋友，今天咱们要聊的事儿，堪称金融圈的大新闻。刚刚，特朗普又整了个大动作：他在自己的社交媒体上高调宣布：解雇美联储理事 丽莎·库克，立即生效！ 现在美联储理事会七个席位里，他已经有两个人是自己任命的。不久前又提名了斯蒂芬·米兰来接替库格勒的席位。如果库克真被挤出去，那 特朗普就可能拿到四个席位，直接占多数。到那时候，美联储的很多关键决定，他就能说了算。 你没听错，这是美国历史上第一次有总统敢公开说要解雇在任的美联储理事。市场当然第一时间炸了。美股期货一看不对劲，立刻往下掉， 纳指期货跌了 0.2%。避险情绪立刻起来，日元兑美元走强，黄金把之前跌掉的那点立刻收了回来。 换句话说，特朗普这是抢跑了。法律程序还没走完，他直接宣布解雇，这就让人觉得是政治动机。参议员沃伦第一时间出来说，这完全是违 法行为，纯粹出于政治目的。 这事儿被人称作特朗普的"三步走"计划：第一步，清掉不听话的人；第二步，用自己人填上去；第三步，把理事会 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of mortgage fraud, which may lead to a legal battle and reflects his ongoing attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Dismissal Reasons - Trump stated he had sufficient reasons to dismiss Cook, citing accusations of her committing mortgage fraud by misrepresenting her primary residences to obtain better rates [2] - The allegations were brought forth by Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who claimed Cook declared two properties as her primary residence [2][7] Group 2: Implications of Dismissal - The dismissal could lead to a legal confrontation between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the President cannot arbitrarily fire Fed officials without just cause [8] - If Cook refuses to resign, the Trump administration would need to prove the allegations of mortgage fraud in court, which could impact the Fed's independence [8][9] - A successful dismissal could allow Trump to appoint a more dovish Fed governor, potentially increasing his influence over monetary policy [8][9]

新华社华盛顿8月26日电 综述|特朗普解雇美联储理事库克 被指"非法" 新华社记者徐静 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。这一被媒体称为"史无前 例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。 特朗普当天在其社交媒体上一封致库克的信中表示，鉴于库克"在金融问题上存在欺骗行为且可能构成 犯罪"，其诚信度令人怀疑。 库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称，特朗普总统将其解雇缺乏法律依据及相关权力。"我将继续履行我的 职责，帮助美国经济。"洛厄尔表示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止其非法行为。" 美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特20日公开指认库克曾同时将两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取 更优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提交一份刑事指控。特朗普当天晚些时候在社交媒体上转发相关报道并 称"库克必须辞职"。21日，美司法部表示将对库克展开调查。 根据美国国会1913年通过的《联邦储备法》，总统只能"因故"解雇美联储理事，但法律并未明确"因 故"的具体内容。 宾夕法尼亚大学美联储历史学者彼得·康蒂-布朗表示，库克出任美联储理事已经过总统和参议院的审 查，目前将任职前发生的事情认定为 ...

美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。这一被媒体称为"史无前 例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。 美国国会民主党籍参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦表示，特朗普的做法"公然违反《联邦储备法》"，"必须在法庭 上被推翻"。 新华社记者徐静 特朗普当天在其社交媒体上一封致库克的信中表示，鉴于库克"在金融问题上存在欺骗行为且可能构成 犯罪"，其诚信度令人怀疑。 库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称，特朗普总统将其解雇缺乏法律依据及相关权力。"我将继续履行我的 职责，帮助美国经济。"洛厄尔表示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止其非法行为。" 美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特20日公开指认库克曾同时将两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取 更优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提交一份刑事指控。特朗普当天晚些时候在社交媒体上转发相关报道并 称"库克必须辞职"。21日，美司法部表示将对库克展开调查。 根据美国国会1913年通过的《联邦储备法》，总统只能"因故"解雇美联储理事，但法律并未明确"因 故"的具体内容。 宾夕法尼亚大学美联储历史学者彼得·康蒂-布朗表示，库克出任美联储理事已经过总统和参议院 ...