他说："黄金走强，股市动荡，收益率曲线略微变陡。这些市场走势大体上符合攻击美联储独立性时的 典型剧本。" 央行在不受政治干预的情况下采取行动（至少在设定利率方面）的能力，被视为现代经济学的一个关键 原则。这通过隔离货币政策制定者，使他们能够为了长期稳定做出决策。 对于投资者而言，对美国机构的信任构成了该国在金融市场上享有的所谓"嚣张特权"的一部分，因为美 国是世界储备货币的发行国，也是数十亿美元资本流入的接收国。 投资者表示，美国司法部对美联储的调查以及主席鲍威尔的强硬回应，急剧推高了一场长期争端的赌 注，这场争端已将全球最强大央行的独立性公开置于危险境地。 在上周日发表的一份措辞强硬的声明中，鲍威尔披露了一项调查，该调查以建筑翻新项目为由威胁对他 进行刑事起诉。他表示，这是一个"借口"，目的是获取对美联储的政治影响力，以更快地降低利率。 美国总统特朗普告诉NBC，他对司法部的行动毫不知情，但他再次攻击了鲍威尔。随着美联储降息速 度慢于他的预期，这些攻击变得愈发频繁和尖锐。 这一调查及鲍威尔的尖锐回应，使得双方的争执急剧升级。市场观察人士担心，这可能会颠覆美联储的 独立性，而独立性正是美国经济政策的基石和金融 ...

欧洲银行股下滑，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示，美国司法部对美联储大楼超支问 题的调查，是美国总统特朗普为施压美联储降息而找的借口。鲍威尔表示，该调查事关美联储的独立 性，以及利率决定是否会受到政治压力的影响。巴克莱股价跌幅最大，下跌3.1%，此前特朗普周五呼 吁对信用卡利率实行10%的一年期上限。其他方面，法国银行法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行均下跌约 1.3%，西班牙银行股则普遍下跌。德国银行股也出现下滑，不过意大利市场不乏亮点，Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena上涨1.6%，因市场对潜在的股票回购反应积极。 ...

来源：国际金融报 近日，据美国政府官员透露，美国检察官正对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查，调查内容涉及其2025年夏季 就美联储总部大楼翻修项目向国会所作的证词。当地时间1月11日，鲍威尔证实，美联储已于1月9日收 到美国司法部发出的大陪审团传票，相关调查可能引发刑事指控。 外界普遍认为，此举是特朗普政府持续向美联储施压、挑战其长期政治独立性的最新举措。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，美国总统特朗普于当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时，否认与司法部向美联 储发出传票有关。他表示："我对此一无所知。" 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪（Pam Bondi）的发言人拒绝就调查进展发表评论，但表示邦迪已指示联邦检察 官"优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的行为"。 1月11日晚间，鲍威尔在一段视频声明中回应，称这项调查是特朗普持续施压美联储降息行动中的一 个"借口"。 鲍威尔指出，当前的核心在于"美联储是否还能基于证据和经济状况来制定利率政策，还是说货币政策 将被政治压力所恐吓和左右"。 他强调，潜在的刑事起诉不会影响其继续履行美联储主席职责。据悉，鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5 月15日结束，特朗普预计将在未来数月内决定继任人选。 在货币政 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice, related to his testimony regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters in the summer of 2025 [1] - This investigation marks an unprecedented escalation in the conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly due to Trump's criticism of the Fed for not significantly lowering key interest rates [1] - The situation is expected to impact U.S. financial markets, potentially increasing borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans in the long term [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.82 on the 12th, a decline of over 0.3%, with the dollar experiencing its steepest annual drop since 2017 in 2025 [1] - U.S. stock index futures also declined, with Nasdaq futures dropping over 0.9% and the S&P 500 index down over 0.6% on the same day [1] - In contrast, the Asia-Pacific financial markets performed strongly, and spot gold reached a historical high of $4601.38 per ounce on the 12th [1] Group 3 - Trump claimed he was unaware of the investigation into Powell and denied any intention to pressure Powell to lower interest rates [2] - Bill Pulte, the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, was identified as a key figure behind the DOJ's subpoena to Powell, although some officials stated the investigation was led by the DOJ [2] - Trump has indicated he has a candidate in mind for Powell's successor, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh [2]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing due to the threat of criminal charges against Chairman Jerome Powell, but it is expected that the Fed will continue to make policy decisions based on economic data [1] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the recent news of a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell has intensified worries about the Fed's independence [1] - Hatzius expressed confidence that Powell will make decisions based on economic data during his remaining term, without succumbing to external pressures, whether for rate hikes or cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice marks an unprecedented escalation in the conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting financial markets and borrowing costs in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to Jerome Powell, which is related to his testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building in the summer of 2025 [1]. - The investigation is reportedly driven by U.S. Attorney General Janine Pirro, although some sources indicate that the Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte is a key figure in the matter [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, the U.S. dollar index fell to 98.82, a decline of over 0.3%, marking the deepest annual drop since 2017 [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also experienced declines, with Nasdaq futures dropping over 0.9% and the S&P 500 index down over 0.6% on the same day [1]. - In contrast, the Asia-Pacific financial markets showed strong performance, and spot gold reached a historical high of $4601.38 per ounce [1]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Evercore International Strategic and Investment Group predict a sell-off in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks, drawing parallels to the peak of tariff impacts in April of the previous year [1].

来源：滚动播报 荷兰银行经济学家Rogier Quaedvlieg在一份报告中说，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)受 到调查，美联储近期降息的前景面临风险。他说，对美联储独立性的挑战可能导致美联储理事会成员坚 持立场，推迟降息，以"捍卫该机构"。Quaedvlieg说，这项调查与这家央行总部的装修成本超支有关， 被认为是向美联储主席施压，迫使其下台，以允许政府施加更大的影响力。他说："如果情况拖延下 去，降息可能会被推迟。"美国总统特朗普曾表示，他倾向于降低利率。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of political risks and macroeconomic data on the USD and JPY, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's independence and the geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, which was below market expectations and weaker than the previously revised figure, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The market is divided on the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path, with some expecting aggressive easing due to economic slowdown and political uncertainties, while others see the labor market's resilience as a constraint on such expectations [2] - The USD/JPY pair dipped to around 157 during the Asian session but remained within a low range, influenced by uncertainties in Japan's political environment and monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are rising, with the U.S. signaling potential actions regarding Iran, leading to increased regional security risks and affecting overall market risk appetite [3] - The recent decline in the USD reflects a market re-evaluation of institutional and political risks rather than being solely driven by economic data [3] - The JPY is receiving marginal support from geopolitical risk aversion, but domestic political uncertainties and unclear monetary policy timelines continue to exert structural pressure on the currency [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stock futures experienced a significant decline as investors expressed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Investors shifted their focus towards precious metals as a safe haven amid the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index has retreated from recent highs, influenced by political risks surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for December showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path remain divided, with some anticipating aggressive easing due to economic slowdown and political uncertainty [2][3] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has faced structural pressure due to domestic political uncertainties and a lack of clarity regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike schedule [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have led to a temporary return of risk-averse capital, providing marginal support to traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen, but not enough to alter its fundamental pressures [3] - The upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases will be crucial for guiding the dollar and major currency trends [3]