Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, leading to the potential for the best weekly performance in global stock markets since June [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a system failure that disrupted futures trading, affecting major products like S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures [1] - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] Group 2 - Spot silver is stabilizing around $54 per ounce, potentially achieving its longest streak of monthly gains since 1980 [4] - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.1% and the German DAX flat, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.2% [5] - Brent crude oil prices are holding above $63 per barrel but are on track for a fourth consecutive month of decline, the longest since May 2023 [8]

芝商所周五因数据中心制冷故障遭遇重大技术瘫痪，导致所有衍生品市场交易暂停，这一罕见的技术故 障正值白银价格触及历史新高之际，在社交媒体上引发大量投机性讨论。 根据芝交所发布的官方声明，此次交易暂停源于CyrusOne数据中心的制冷系统出现问题，受影响范围 极广，涵盖货币、大宗商品和股指期货。具体的停摆产品包括标普500指数期货、纳斯达克指数期货， 以及EBS外汇交易平台，其外汇交易平台EBS也因技术问题同步暂停。 交易员称，他们在格林尼治时间0300前接到CME通知，称数据中心故障影响了Globex平台上所有期货 和期权合约的交易。一位不愿具名的交易员向路透表示："这简直是噩梦。"CME在公告中称，技术支 持团队正努力在短期内解决问题，并将尽快通知客户预开盘的具体安排。 此次宕机事件的时间节点引发市场关注。网友Rheign Mac评论道："就在白银触及历史新高时，CME关 闭了！"社交媒体上迅速涌现各类讨论，部分投资者质疑这一技术故障的偶然性。 罕见技术故障冻结全球交易 网友VBL's Ghost分析称，虽然芝商所的活动今晚可能只是巧合，但芝交所出现技术问题非常罕见，"这 是严重压力的迹象"。该网友进一步指出 ...

Core Insights - After Trump's speech, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures returned to a flat position, indicating market stabilization [1] - Bitcoin narrowed its decline, suggesting a potential recovery or stabilization in the cryptocurrency market [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index futures showed a shift to a neutral stance following political commentary, reflecting investor sentiment [1] - Nasdaq index futures also mirrored this trend, indicating a broader market response to external factors [1] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin's reduced decline points to a possible resilience in the cryptocurrency market amidst fluctuating investor confidence [1]

Group 1 - S&P 500 futures declined by 0.2% [1] - Nasdaq futures also fell by 0.2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on global capital markets, with sharp declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Saudi All-Share Index [7]. - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, which is expected to affect the market sentiment of related products [12][19]. - The global manufacturing recovery is weakening, while China's consumer market is showing positive momentum in the first quarter [8]. - The performance of various commodities and financial markets is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and investors need to pay attention to risks and opportunities [12][13][14][15][18][19][20] Summary by Directory Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On April 7, 2025, compared with April 6, major global stock indices generally declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped by 5.503% to 38314.86, the Nasdaq Index fell by 5.817% to 15587.79, and the S&P 500 decreased by 5.975% to 5074.08. The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.520% to 22849.81 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 7.916% to 1.62, the US dollar index dropped by 0.415% to 102.49, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.30 [2]. - **Commodities**: Most commodities showed price declines. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 2.613% to 3056.10, COMEX silver fell by 7.518% to 29.53, and LME copper dropped by 7.223% to 8690.00. However, CBOT corn rose by 0.436% to 460.50 [2]. Macro - Economic News - **Global Market Impact**: The US tariff policy has led to significant drops in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 10% and 11% respectively in two days. Saudi All - Share Index tumbled 6.78%, and Saudi Aramco's market value evaporated about $90 billion [7]. - **Upcoming Events**: China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting from April 10; the EU plans to take comprehensive counter - measures against US tariffs; inflation data of China and the US in March will be released; the US earnings season will start; and the 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Nanjing [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China is strengthening its opening - up legal system, attracting more international investors. The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's consumer market showed positive momentum in the first quarter, with the offline consumption heat index increasing by 14.2% year - on - year [8]. - **Regional Economic Developments**: In Zhejiang, manufacturing investment increased significantly from January to February. Hunan Province plans to develop a credible data space, aiming to have over 500 network nodes by 2028 [9]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. With the tariff on US goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meals [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The tariff on US imports is expected to drive the oil and meal market to be bullish [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term buying on dips is recommended, but attention should be paid to the resistance at 6200 and the risk of price correction [12]. - **Corn**: The price has shown a stable rebound. Buying on dips is suggested, but beware of port inventory pressure and weak spot price follow - up [12]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures contract is in a discount state, oscillating between 13500 - 14000. A 5 - 10 positive spread can be considered [12][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the price changes around holidays [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The 2505 contract may continue to be weak, but beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [14]. - **Urea**: The price is stable with a slight weakness. The UR2505 contract is expected to trade between 1840 - 1930 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the prices of copper and aluminum have weakened. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][14][15]. - **Alumina**: The 2505 contract is expected to be weak, and beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [15]. - **Steel Products**: The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The prices of steel products may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3200 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to continue weak oscillations [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may face pressure due to tariff sentiment, and they are in a weak oscillation at low levels [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a weak oscillation. Short positions are recommended, but beware of over - decline rebound [15][16]. Options and Financial Markets - **Stock Market Performance**: On April 3, A - share indices closed lower. The US tariff policy has put pressure on the A - share market. The domestic market may remain weak in the short - term. Before a significant bottom - out with heavy trading volume, short - term volatility strategies can be considered; otherwise, combination arbitrage strategies of IF/IH and IC/IM can be used [18][19][20].