Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: High - level gaming intensifies, waiting for a callback opportunity [2] - Soybean oil: Mainly fluctuating, focus on the China - US trade agreement [2] - Soybean meal: Concerns about trade, weak US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating [2] - Sugar: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress accelerates [2] - Cotton: Sentiment cools down, Zhengzhou cotton futures callback [2] - Eggs: Weak sentiment [2] - Live pigs: End - of - month volume - shrinking rally, focus on sustainability [2] - Peanuts: Focus on weather in production areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,868 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% decline. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,192 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,198 yuan/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia will raise the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [4][5][6][8][12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton with a - 0.51% decline, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% decline. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3,000 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% decline, and night - session closing price was 3,002 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline. CBOT soybeans fell due to good weather and weak demand. The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,288 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% decline in the daily session and 2,296 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the night session. The closing price of C2511 was 2,230 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decline in the daily session and 2,213 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline in the night session. Corn prices in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16][17][18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound with a - 0.11 decline year - on - year. Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated. The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20][23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 13,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE US cotton 12 fell. Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market and fabric orders were weak. The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25][26][29] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,259 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.36% decline, and the closing price of egg 2510 was 3,298 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.96% decline. The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's live - pig spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,640 yuan/ton. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [33][34][35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,948 yuan/ton with a - 0.60% decline. The peanut market in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37][38][39]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend analysis [1]. Key Points 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is in a high - level game, and investors should wait for a callback opportunity; soybean oil is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,900 yuan/ton (down 0.91% in the day - session) and 8,868 yuan/ton (down 0.36% in the night - session); soybean oil主力 closed at 8,192 yuan/ton (down 0.58% in the day - session) and 8,198 yuan/ton in the night - session; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton (down 1.15% in the day - session) and 9,480 yuan/ton (down 0.32% in the night - session). The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,530 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis and various spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were provided, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 610 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Export**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the previous month; AmSpec reported a 9.58% decrease to 1,163,216 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52/ton in July to $74/ton in August. The EU may give zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO exports annually when the free - trade agreement is approved [6]. - **Soybean - related News**: About 5% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of July 29, down from 8% the previous week. The 2025/26 US soybean production is estimated to be around 118 million tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from July 27 - August 2 are expected to be 2.5504 million tons, 0.3864 million tons, and 1.7742 million tons respectively. Ukraine's 2025 soybean production may decrease by over 1 million tons due to a 24% reduction in planting area [7][8]. - **Rapeseed News**: Kazakhstan's rapeseed exports in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 season (September - August) reached 117,900 tons, a three - fold increase from the previous year [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices showing weakness and uncertainty due to various factors including trade negotiations and demand fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Cotton futures opened at 13,900.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 13,750.00 CNY and 13,920.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.75% [1]. - The market sentiment is weak, with a notable decrease in demand from textile enterprises, leading to a significant drop in orders to near a five-year low [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the U.S., while the condition of cotton crops has slightly deteriorated, the overall growth remains good, with a small decline in quality ratings but still ahead of the previous year [1]. - Domestic new cotton planting area and yield are both increasing, which is expected to raise the baseline production levels [1]. - The pace of commercial inventory reduction is accelerating, but the replenishment of downstream products has significantly slowed in the latest week [1]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations Impact - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in an extension of the existing tariff measures for 90 days, indicating a lack of definitive agreement and creating uncertainty in the market [2]. - The cotton market is particularly sensitive to these negotiations, as the upcoming three months are typically a peak demand season for cotton [2]. - The price of Zheng cotton has fallen below the 14,000 CNY support level, reflecting weakened confidence among long positions due to the uncertain trade environment [2].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures up 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.37% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.11%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, France's CAC40 up 0.24%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 0.50% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.86% to $66.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.73% to $68.83 per barrel [3][4] Upcoming Events - A significant week is anticipated for the US market, with the Federal Reserve's meeting and earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [5] - Key economic indicators, including GDP and non-farm payroll data, will also be released throughout the week [5] Trade and Economic Predictions - A new trade agreement between the US and EU could lead to a predicted 46% drop in global exports to the US by 2027, amounting to a decrease of $2.68 trillion [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts an 11% increase in Chinese stocks if a trade agreement between the US and China is reached, raising the MSCI China Index target from 85 to 90 [9] Company News - Tesla has confirmed a $16.5 billion semiconductor supply agreement with Samsung [9] - Heineken reported a 0.4% decline in Q2 beer sales due to retail disputes in Europe, affecting their ability to capitalize on summer sales [10][11] - US LNG developers saw stock prices rise collectively after the EU committed to purchasing $250 billion worth of LNG from the US over the next three years [11] - Citigroup launched a new high-end credit card, Strata Elite, targeting high-net-worth individuals, competing with American Express and JPMorgan Chase [12]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its target for Chinese stocks, citing improved prospects for a US-China trade agreement, which would eliminate a key market uncertainty [1][4] - The 12-month target for the MSCI China Index was increased from 85 to 90 points, indicating an 11% upside from last Friday's closing price [1] - The report highlighted that a potential US-China trade agreement could act as a market catalyst, similar to recent agreements with other countries [4] Group 2 - Other positive factors include a strengthening yuan, reduced regulatory risks for private enterprises, and improved market liquidity [4] - The MSCI China Index has risen nearly 8% since Goldman Sachs previously raised its target price to pre-tariff levels announced by President Trump [4] - Chinese stocks have seen three consecutive weeks of gains, partly due to successful trade agreements between the US and other countries, raising expectations for a similar agreement with China [4] Group 3 - Geopolitical stability signs have also boosted market sentiment, with investors closely watching the upcoming Politburo meeting that will set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year [4] - Although strong stimulus measures may not be immediately forthcoming, some supportive measures could be introduced later this year [4] - Despite the MSCI China Index rising over 25% year-to-date, Goldman Sachs advises investors to focus on stock selection and has upgraded ratings for the insurance and materials sectors to "overweight" [4]

Group 1 - Huang Renxun announced two major news upon arriving in China: the resumption of H20 chip sales in China and the creation of a dedicated RTX Pro GPU product for the Chinese market [1] - Nvidia's stock surged, reaching a market value of $4.17 trillion, surpassing Japan's GDP from the previous year, indicating strong market confidence [1] - The lifting of the H20 ban allowed multiple tech companies in China to quickly place orders, alleviating some chip supply issues [1] Group 2 - Prior to his visit to China, Huang Renxun met with Trump at the White House, likely to gauge China's stance towards the U.S. and facilitate his visit [2] - Recent reports suggest that Trump's attitude towards China has softened, aiming for a trade agreement and a potential summit with Chinese leaders [2][10] - Trump's administration has been under pressure from various sectors, particularly agriculture, due to the impact of tariffs, necessitating a more conciliatory approach towards China [8] Group 3 - Huang Renxun's visit is seen as a precursor to a larger business delegation led by Trump, indicating his role in fostering a positive atmosphere for U.S.-China dialogue [3] - During his visit, Huang Renxun engaged with several Chinese tech giants and officials, showcasing Nvidia's commitment to the Chinese market [3][5] - His actions, including wearing traditional Chinese attire and attempting to speak Chinese, were interpreted as efforts to strengthen ties with China [7] Group 4 - The Trump administration's need to ease tensions with China is driven by the impending expiration of a 90-day tariff ceasefire, with potential consequences for U.S. industries if no agreement is reached [8] - The rising costs from tariffs have led U.S. manufacturers and retailers to struggle, prompting the need for dialogue with China to alleviate economic pressures [8] - Huang Renxun's visit serves as a bridge for U.S. tech companies to signal their desire for continued cooperation with China, potentially easing trade tensions [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under domestic inventory accumulation pressure, the basis performance is under pressure. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of de - stocking of soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall. The overall decline space of the futures market is expected to be limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year. Short - term temperature and rainfall show no obvious abnormalities. In May, the import volume of US soybeans was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations for June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [4]. Demand - From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition increases, and the提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventories have increased to a high level; soybean meal is accumulating inventory at an accelerated pace; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5]. Price - related Data - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, etc.), the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (both spot and futures), and the basis spread between different contracts (such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) [3][4].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound on July 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.9% [2] - A total of 3,271 stocks rose, with 66 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,866 stocks declined [3][4] - The total trading volume reached 13,335.06 billion, with a total of 108,789.9 million shares traded [4] Sector Performance - Computing hardware stocks surged again, with PCB and related sectors leading the gains. Notable stocks included Zhongjing Electronics, Bomin Electronics, and Jin'an Guoji, all hitting the daily limit up [5] - Innovative drug concept stocks continued their strong performance, with companies like Weiming Pharmaceutical and Shenzhou Cell also reaching the daily limit up [7] - The solid-state battery sector saw a midday rally, with stocks such as Dadongnan, Hongtian Co., and Zhongyi Technology hitting the daily limit up [9] Notable Stock Movements - Key stocks in the computing hardware sector included: - Yihua New Materials: +20.00% at 32.64 - Zhongyi Technology: +19.99% at 23.89 - Bomin Electronics: +10.04% at 10.41 [6] - In the innovative drug sector, significant gainers included: - Guangshengtang: +20.00% at 42.78 - Shenzhou Cell: +19.99% at 73.34 - Weiming Pharmaceutical: +10.03% at 10.86 [8] - Solid-state battery stocks also saw notable increases, with Zhongyi Technology at +19.99% and Hongtian Co. at +10.02% [10] Downward Trends - The marine economy sector faced adjustments, with Kelaite dropping over 10% [11] U.S.-China Trade Developments - The Trump administration canceled recent export licensing requirements for chip design software sales to China, a move aligned with a trade agreement aimed at easing key technology restrictions [12] - Major EDA (Electronic Design Automation) companies, including Synopsys, Cadence Design Systems, and Siemens, are expected to benefit from this change, as they previously required government approval to operate in China [12][13] - The EDA market, while only $11.5 billion, plays a crucial role in the $440 billion global semiconductor industry, with the top three companies controlling 74% of the market [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has informed Siemens that it no longer requires "government permission" to conduct business in China, indicating a shift in export control policies [1] - This change is part of a broader trade agreement aimed at facilitating the flow of critical technologies between the U.S. and China, following previous restrictions on chip design software exports [1][2] - Siemens, a leading supplier of chip design software, has restored full access for its Chinese customers to its software and technology [1] Group 2 - In May, the Trump administration had imposed export controls on chip design software to China in response to China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports [2] - The Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, while a small segment of the semiconductor industry, is crucial for chip designers and manufacturers in developing and testing next-generation chips [2][4] - Recent reports also indicate that the U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, suggesting a potential thaw in trade relations [4]