Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data has strengthened Bowman’s support for multiple interest rate cuts this year, suggesting that a rate cut in September would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Bowman emphasizes the need for three interest rate cuts this year due to signs of weakness in the labor market, with July data showing only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating further labor market concerns [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman has shifted from supporting a stable interest rate policy earlier this year to advocating for rate cuts, having voted against maintaining rates in July alongside fellow board member Waller [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Bowman’s recent statements indicate a more dovish stance [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Bowman reiterated her view that tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation, suggesting that confidence in the absence of sustained inflationary pressure from tariffs is growing [2][5] - She believes that the risks to price stability are diminishing as the outlook on tariffs and inflation becomes clearer [2][5]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts in 2025, citing weak labor market data as a reinforcement of her stance [1] - Bowman urges other central bank policymakers to begin rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting to prevent further deterioration of the labor market [1] - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [2] Group 2 - Bowman will host a community bank meeting on October 9 to discuss potential reforms to the capital framework for these banks [3] - Concerns have been raised about the competitive landscape for community banks, which have been losing market share to larger banks [3] - Bowman emphasizes the importance of community banks as foundational to the banking and financial system, providing support to local communities and customers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted to a more dovish stance, supporting three interest rate cuts this year and urging the central bank to initiate a cut in September [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak labor market data has reinforced Bowman's view in favor of multiple rate cuts, suggesting that a September cut would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - In July, employers added only 73,000 jobs, which was below expectations, and previous months' job growth data was revised down by nearly 260,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Bowman reiterated her belief that price increases driven by tariffs are unlikely to sustain upward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the risks to price stability have diminished [1][2] - Confidence is growing that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation, which supports her argument for rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Shift - Bowman's shift in monetary policy stance is notable, as she previously supported maintaining interest rates but has now aligned with calls for a 25 basis point cut, marking a significant change in her position [1] - Her support for rate cuts comes after a rare dissenting vote alongside Governor Waller during the July Federal Reserve decision, highlighting a divergence in views among Fed officials [1]

盘前市场动向 1. 8月7日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.54%，标普500指数期货涨0.61%，纳指期货涨 0.74%。 市场消息 俄美首脑峰会在即，外交曙光提振全球市场。克里姆林宫周四宣布，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于 未来几天内举行峰会会谈。克里姆林宫外交政策顾问尤里·乌沙科夫向记者表示，俄美双方已就会议地点达成一致，"正与美国同 事共同推进具体议题磋商"，目标是下周举行会谈。他同时透露，峰会举办地将在后续公布。消息公布后，欧洲股市及美国股指 期货应声上涨。 美联储三官员齐发警告：劳动力市场持续疲软，9月降息预期升温。旧金山联储主席戴利指出，当前劳动力市场已显现疲软迹 象，若进一步恶化将引发政策调整需求。美联储理事库克表示，前三个月就业数据累计下调近26万个岗位(其中7月新增就业仅 7.3万个)，这种大幅修正往往是经济周期转折的典型特征。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利更是直言："经济正在放缓，短期内 启动联邦基金利率调整是合适的。" "旺季已过"?汇丰预计美股盈利增长将在下半年踩刹车。汇丰表示，美股又经历了一轮业绩大爆发的财报季，标普500指数在 ...

盘前市场动向 1.8月7日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.54%，标普500指数期货涨0.61%，纳指期货涨 0.74%。 | = US 30 | 44,432.50 | 44,488.00 | 44.139.00 | +239.10 | +0.54% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US 500 | 6.384.10 | 6.401.80 | 6,339.40 | +39.00 | +0.61% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 23,488.40 | 23,528.60 | 23,277.10 | +173.40 | +0.74% | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.73%，英国富时100指数跌0.71%，法国CAC40指数涨1.26%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.57%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,318.45 | 24,391.63 | 23,905.00 | +413.92 | +1.73% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | 9,099 ...

Core Insights - Three Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concerns about the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and hinted that a rate cut may be initiated in the September meeting [1] - Data revealed that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below market expectations [1] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of weakness, raising alarms among Federal Reserve officials [1] - The addition of 73,000 non-farm jobs in July is a stark contrast to the anticipated figures, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dissenting votes from Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller during the recent Federal Reserve meeting mark the first time since 1993 that two Federal Reserve governors have opposed the Federal Open Market Committee's decision, coinciding with a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm data and an overall increase in rate cut expectations [3][12]. Group 1: Statements from Bowman and Waller - Both Bowman and Waller highlighted signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, with Bowman advocating for a gradual shift from a moderately tight policy stance to a neutral level to proactively prevent further economic deterioration and job market damage [6][11]. - Waller suggested that the Fed was already aware of the significant downward revision of non-farm data during their discussions, indicating that private sector job growth is nearly stagnant and that the risks to the labor market are increasing [7][10]. - Waller criticized the cautious approach of waiting for clearer data on tariffs, arguing that it could lead to a lag in policy response and that the labor market might weaken before clear information is available [8]. Group 2: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Waller recommended that the policy interest rate should be at a neutral level, estimated by FOMC members to be around 3%, which is 1.25% to 1.5% lower than the current federal funds rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% [10]. - Both Bowman and Waller support a gradual rate cut approach to maintain the labor market close to full employment and ensure the Fed's dual mandate is met [11]. - The dissenting opinions have led to speculation about the motivations behind their calls for rate cuts, with some analysts suggesting that these dissenting votes may be viewed as applications for future leadership positions within the Fed [12][14].

Core Insights - The U.S. labor data supports calls for monetary easing, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.295%, while the 2-year yield is at 3.801% [1] - July saw only 73,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - Previous employment data has been significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] - Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns about the labor market's weakness prior to the employment report [1]

罗素投资：预计非农新增10万个岗位 就业疲软但仍支持软着陆 金十数据8月1日讯，美国长债收益率在亚盘交易时段微升。接受《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计美国 7月非农将新增10万个就业岗位，6月份为14.7万个。罗素投资公司投资策略师BeiChen Lin在一份报告中 表示："正如普遍预期的那样，劳动力市场略有疲软，仍符合我们的软着陆前景。"就业创造的广度将是 一个关键的观察点。近几个月来，新增就业岗位已开始更多地集中在医疗保健等人手不足的行业，就业 范围的扩大可能会在一定程度上为经济的弹性提供保证。 ...

分析师：美联储后续降息在沟通层面极具挑战 金十数据7月31日讯，Facet公司首席投资官Tom Graff表示，美联储显然处于一个棘手的位置。逻辑上， 他们预期新关税将带来一定程度的通胀，理想情况下美联储希望等到通胀见顶后再考虑降息。但压力正 在加大，即使白宫没有施加外部压力，近期劳动力市场的疲软也足以让美联储感到担忧。实际上这很可 能正是沃勒和鲍曼在此次会议中投票反对维持利率不变、主张降息的原因。我认为，此次决议为美联储 在9月会议上启动降息奠定了基础，并可能在年内再降息1到2次。问题在于，尽管物价可能会上升，美 联储却仍需启动降息，这在沟通层面将极具挑战性。而特朗普对利率的持续施压进一步加剧了这一沟通 难度。届时，鲍威尔可能会被外界视为在屈从于特朗普的要求。但如果就业增长继续走弱，经济陷入衰 退的可能性将不断上升，而鲍威尔届时也将无法再对此视而不见。 ...