国新办1月20日举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情 况。国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在会上表示，坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，加快构建现 代化产业体系。要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基 金布局规划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 着力打通供需循环卡点堵点 "要坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。"王昌林表示，重点是要适 应需求升级的趋势，结合新一轮科技革命和产业变革的需要，研究制定出台2026-2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案，为以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障，努力实现 供需互促、循环升级。 提升消费者收入是提振内需的重要方面。国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说，要把惠民生和促 消费紧密结合，目前有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划，目的就是增强居民 的消费能力，优化消费供给。将深入实施提振消费专项行动，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场 景。此外，将推动实施服务业扩能提质行动，推出一批具有含金量的政策， ...

1月20日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局 有关情况。发布会全面回顾2025年经济发展成效，介绍2026年重点工作，从稳增长、挖潜能、促改革多 维度发力，为"十五五"开局之年的经济高质量发展筑牢根基。 围绕社会各界关注的物价问题，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将会同相关部门打好政策"组合 拳"，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。同时，今年还将研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大 内需战略实施方案。 经济实力跃上新台阶 面对复杂多变的国内外形势，2025年全国上下迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完 成，"十四五"圆满收官。王昌林指出，过去一年经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性持续彰显，核心成效体现 在多方面。 宏观政策精准发力，经济实力再上新台阶。通过加强超常规逆周期调节，接续实施稳增长系列举措，全 年经济总量迈过140万亿元大关，5%的增速在全球主要经济体中保持前列，增量相当于一个中等规模经 济体总量。创新驱动纵深推进，新质生产力加速崛起，人工智能、生物医药等领域研发应用走在世界前 列，制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一。 改革开放持续深化，发 ...

Core Insights - China's economy achieved a total output of 140 trillion yuan, with manufacturing value added ranking first globally for 16 consecutive years, and urbanization rate increasing by 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a high-quality development trajectory for 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development and Potential - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) highlighted that the main goals of economic and social development were successfully completed, showcasing steady economic operation and enhanced resilience [2] - In 2026, significant potential is expected to be released in consumption, investment, technology, and industry, with new economic growth points in sectors like new energy and aerospace [2] - China possesses a complete industrial system and a vast talent pool, facilitating the transformation of innovation from concept to market [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference identified a prominent contradiction between strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the need for dynamic balance and a virtuous cycle [4] - The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation, enhancing the real economy, and promoting a unified national market to mitigate "involution" competition [4] Group 3: Consumer and Investment Strategies - The NDRC plans to lower investment thresholds for project applications and optimize funding distribution for consumer goods replacement programs [5] - Increasing consumer income is deemed crucial for expanding domestic demand, with initiatives aimed at job retention and income growth for urban and rural residents [5] Group 4: Price Stabilization and Control - Promoting reasonable price recovery is a key macroeconomic goal, with recent trends showing a rise in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [6] - The NDRC will implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support price recovery while ensuring the stability of essential goods [6][7]

昨天，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开 局有关情况。对中国经济运行中存在的供强需弱矛盾，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将把宏观政 策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求，研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实 施方案。 同时，还要坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。重点是 要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从"卷价格"向优价值转变。完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机 制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于求的阶段性矛盾。进一步细化地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项边界， 规范地方经济促进行为。加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，形成优质优价、良 性竞争的市场秩序。大力实施质量品牌战略，引导破解"内卷式"竞争。 文/本报记者 董鑫 统筹/刘晓雪 王昌林表示，当前，中国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问题。必须扩 大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费 拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上 ...

证券时报记者 韩忠楠 1月20日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况。 发布会全面回顾2025年经济发展成效，介绍2026年重点工作，从稳增长、挖潜能、促改革多维度发力，为"十五 五"开局之年的经济高质量发展筑牢根基。 围绕社会各界关注的物价问题，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，将会同相关部门打好政策"组合拳"，把促进 物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。同时，今年还将研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。 经济实力跃上新台阶 面对复杂多变的国内外形势，2025年全国上下迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，"十四 五"圆满收官。王昌林指出，过去一年经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性持续彰显，核心成效体现在多方面。 宏观政策精准发力，经济实力再上新台阶。通过加强超常规逆周期调节，接续实施稳增长系列举措，全年经济总 量迈过140万亿元大关，5%的增速在全球主要经济体中保持前列，增量相当于一个中等规模经济体总量。创新驱 动纵深推进，新质生产力加速崛起，人工智能、生物医药等领域研发应用走在世界前列，制造业增加值连续16年 位居全球第一。 改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need to implement the central economic work conference's spirit to ensure a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for a high-quality economic development in 2026, with a target GDP exceeding 140 trillion yuan and a continuous increase in manufacturing value added for 16 years [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Potential and Development - The NDRC highlights that the main goals of economic and social development have been successfully achieved, with economic operations showing steady progress and resilience, and policies enhancing people's livelihoods [2]. - In 2026, significant potential for development is expected to be released across consumption and investment, technology and industry, as well as urban and rural areas [2]. - New economic growth points in sectors such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace are being planned, with a focus on high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - The NDRC identifies a prominent contradiction between strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the need for dynamic balance and a virtuous cycle in the economy [4]. - The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The NDRC aims to enhance the real economy by promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development, while also fostering emerging and future industries [4]. Group 3: Consumer Income and Demand Expansion - Increasing consumer income is recognized as a crucial method for expanding domestic demand, with plans for actions to stabilize and enhance employment and income for urban and rural residents [5]. - The NDRC is working on optimizing the investment in both physical and human capital to improve investment efficiency and promote mutual empowerment [5]. Group 4: Price Stabilization and Control - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is a key macroeconomic goal, with recent trends showing a rise in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6]. - The NDRC plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support price recovery, ensuring a positive interaction between economic growth and price stabilization [6][7]. - Structural policies will focus on boosting consumption, implementing income plans, and optimizing "two new" policies to achieve better supply-demand balance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the main economic and social development goals by 2025, focusing on strengthening domestic demand and addressing the current issue of weak demand [1][4]. Economic Growth and Performance - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 140.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, successfully meeting the initial target [4]. - The 5% growth rate positions China among the leading global economies, with the economic increment equivalent to that of a medium-sized economy [4]. Domestic Demand Strategy - The NDRC plans to formulate a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, emphasizing the need for a dynamic balance between supply and demand [6]. - The focus will be on adapting to demand upgrades and leveraging new technological revolutions to stimulate economic growth [6]. Industrial Development and Innovation - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of the real economy and aims to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development [7]. - There will be a strong push for innovation in key industries, with a focus on artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and robotics, which are leading globally [4][7]. Policy Implementation and Support - The "Two New" policies, particularly the "old-for-new" consumption initiative, will continue to be implemented to stimulate consumer spending [8]. - A total of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will be allocated to support the "old-for-new" program, with specific subsidies for various consumer products [8]. Funding and Project Management - The NDRC will lower investment thresholds for project applications and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises to broaden the policy's reach [9]. - There will be a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage and ensuring effective management of equipment renewal projects [9].

Economic Growth and Structure - In 2025, China's GDP achieved a growth of 5%, meeting the initial target, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend: 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% [1] - The trade surplus reached a historic high of over $1.1 trillion, demonstrating strong export competitiveness despite trade tensions [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate was 0%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth, indicating insufficient demand and excess capacity in the industrial sector [1] Industrial and Consumption Data - Industrial production saw a growth of 5.9% for the year, with notable increases in 3D printing equipment (52.5%), industrial robots (28%), and new energy vehicles (25.1%) [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, but the growth rate showed a significant slowdown, particularly in December with a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, primarily due to a 17.2% decline in real estate development investment, highlighting the pressure on stabilizing investment amid real estate adjustments [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and adapt to the upgrading of demand structures, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [3] Industry Focus and Future Opportunities - The focus for 2026 includes sectors like robotics, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations for continued growth in technology-driven industries [4] - The construction of 6G networks is anticipated to create new demand for communication equipment, while the commercial aerospace sector has seen a significant correction after previous hype [4] Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend, with a focus on technology stocks and some undervalued quality stocks attracting attention [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, avoiding excessive leverage and focusing on long-term, value-based investments to capitalize on the slow bull market opportunities [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by coking coal cost, steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply - demand is weak. The downstream steel mill's hot metal production is relatively stable, and they replenish stocks as needed. The real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and the industry is under short - term pressure due to negative real - estate data. With a generally warm macro - environment and the implementation of domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, the market awaits further policy guidance. In the short term, it is under pressure and may decline, and attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low. Overall, it will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. The steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and another data shows - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and the average profit of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.48%. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, an increase of 3.53 tons compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%. The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, the steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, which is lower than the previous year's level [2] 5. News - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. It is also researching and formulating actions to stabilize employment, expand employment, and improve quality, as well as a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents. The Ministry of Finance will continue to arrange ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for "two important" construction and "two new" work in 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is set to introduce multiple new measures in 2026, marking the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - A strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 will be developed to lead new supply with new demand and create strong innovation initiatives and resource guarantees [2] - The NDRC is working on a plan for stabilizing jobs, expanding capacity, and improving quality, as well as a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income to enhance consumer purchasing power and optimize supply [3][4] Group 2 - This year, the NDRC will promote the implementation of actions to enhance and improve the service industry, introducing a series of high-quality policies [5] - Plans are underway to advance a number of significant projects in high-tech industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the added goal of establishing a national-level merger and acquisition fund [6][8] - By 2025, the added value of high-tech manufacturing is expected to account for over 17% of the industrial output above designated size, indicating a focus on high-tech industry development [8]