宏观 股指 市场分析：美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱利好新兴市场风险偏好。国内经济呈现"稳中有 进"态势，消费对 GDP 增长的贡献率显著提升，科技制造投资加速，出口结构向中高端市场 倾斜，货币政策保持灵活适度，流动性充裕为市场提供支撑。 参考观点：关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛政策信号，中东局势或引发波动率放大。IH 与 IF 建 议采取中性策略，持有卖出虚值期权或轻仓多头。IC 与 IM 可布局跨期价差套利，或逢低配 置远期合约对冲波动。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。目前，市场开始观望，波 动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，一定程度上在基 本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗对以色列袭击的 反击，中东局势若持续升级，则原油价格易涨难跌。多家机构预测称，若地区冲突进一步扩 大，不排除油价重新回到高油价区间。需密切关注该影响因素。同时，若该驱动逐渐淡化， 或冲突降级，原油的风险溢价也将快速回落。近期波动率将大幅增加。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注 78 美元/桶附近压力。 黄金 宏观与地缘：地缘冲突 ...

纽约富国银行的经济学家Brendan McKenna在谈到即将召开的美联储会议时表示："我们预计明天的会 议将维持现状，但美联储也可能会开始为 9 月的降息政策做准备，这将是一场更偏向'温和立场'的会 议。" 在拉丁美洲，哥伦比亚的比索表现优于其他货币，而智利和墨西哥的货币则出现下跌。预计智利官员将 于周二晚些时候维持关键利率不变，同时表示计划恢复货币宽松政策，因为全球不利因素抑制了经济增 长，而当地通胀率也正朝着目标水平回落。 罗马尼亚美元债券价格上涨，表现优于大多数新兴市场债券，因为总统Nicusor Dan计划与各政党举行 正式会谈，以确定新总理人选。巴哈马三年来首次利用全球市场融资，发行了 11 亿美元将于 2036 年到 期的债券。 智通财经APP获悉，由于中东地区紧张局势不断加剧以及美联储即将做出的利率决定降低了投资者的风 险偏好，新兴市场国家的货币和股票价格均出现下跌。周二，追踪新兴市场货币和股票的指数均一度下 跌超过 0.4%，在收盘时的调整中均收窄了跌幅，各自下跌了 0.1%。南非兰特、匈牙利福林和韩国韩元 等货币在同类货币中表现最差，兑美元汇率跌幅均超过 1%。以色列谢克尔一度下跌多达 0 ...

2025 年 06 月 17 日 量化如何应对宏观不确定性冲击？ ——海外量化季度观察 2025Q2 AQR 开始"拥抱 AI"：近期 AQR 创始人 Cliff Asness 在访谈中承认其已经向 AI"投降"， 开始在投资决策中使用更多的 AI 算法； 德州教师退休基金量化团队集体加入独立资管机构。 ⚫ 海外量化观点： 量化如何应对宏观不确定性冲击：贝莱德认为当前高不确定性环境下，其量化体系主要通 过更细分的风险因子识别并对多数风险保持中性，以及在市场密集的交易中寻找短期反转 机会来战胜市场； 桥水："现代重商主义"的影响：桥水认为资产价格实际上还没有发生实质性调整，后续仍 将有持续的变化，美元资产仍然存在较大的不确定性，他们关注潜在的资本流动来辅助投 资判断，而黄金目前仍然具备很强的配置价值。 AQR：关注高波动因子、新兴市场小盘投资机会：AQR 使用方差比率来衡量因子的波动 水平，数据显示财务类因子具备明显更高的长期收益波动，但从长期来看这些因子的夏普 率也更高，AQR 建议量化管理人接受这些高波动性因子、在短期回撤时也要勇于坚守，并 通过一定的分散化降低短期波动；此外，面对当下复杂的宏观环境，AQR ...

Core Viewpoint - The 137th Canton Fair highlights the resilience of the Chinese home appliance industry amidst the ongoing tariff challenges from the U.S., with large enterprises showing better preparedness and adaptability compared to smaller firms [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Large Enterprises - Large home appliance companies have limited exposure to U.S. tariffs due to strategic planning and diversified supply chains, with many having established manufacturing bases in emerging markets [4][5]. - For instance, Midea Group reported a revenue of 409.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024, with a low revenue share from the U.S. market [4]. - Haier Smart Home achieved an overseas revenue of 143.814 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.43%, with significant growth in emerging markets [4]. Group 2: Adaptation Strategies of the Industry - The home appliance industry has proactively adjusted to tariff impacts by shifting production capacities and exploring new markets, reducing reliance on the U.S. market [5][6]. - Companies like TCL and Hisense have minimized direct exports to the U.S. by utilizing production facilities in Mexico and Southeast Asia, thus mitigating tariff impacts [5][6]. - The overall export value of China's home appliance industry reached 112.42 billion USD in 2024, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 20.71 billion USD, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year increase but a reduced share of total revenue [5]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Small Enterprises - Smaller home appliance companies are facing significant challenges due to their heavy reliance on the U.S. market, with many experiencing customer defaults on orders [7][8]. - The Canton Fair has introduced initiatives to assist small enterprises in finding new clients, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [8][9]. - Experts suggest that small enterprises should adjust their strategies by expanding overseas production and tapping into domestic markets through e-commerce platforms [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - Zhejiang Chint Electric Co., Ltd. reported stable growth in low-voltage component channel business in core European markets, particularly in Southern Europe, including Italy, Spain, and Turkey, while also establishing new growth curves in Germany and France [1] - In the Asia-Pacific growth market, Chint Electric achieved rapid growth in the ASEAN economic circle centered around Singapore, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines [1] - The company is also focusing on emerging markets in West Asia and Africa, leveraging development momentum in Gulf countries, with dual headquarters in Saudi Arabia and Dubai [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Chinese low-voltage electrical industry is experiencing a steady increase in exports, with a total export value of $7.82 billion in the first four months of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [2] - The export market is characterized by the rise of emerging markets and the differentiation of traditional markets, with significant growth in exports to Vietnam, which reached $740 million, a 40% increase year-on-year [2] - Exports to traditional markets like the U.S. are facing challenges due to tense trade relations, but companies are actively exploring diversified markets to mitigate impacts from tariff adjustments [2][3] Group 3: Product Export Structure - Connectors, which account for a significant portion of China's low-voltage electrical exports, saw a year-on-year growth of 24.9%, with exports totaling $3.76 billion in the first four months [3] - The export of automatic circuit breakers reached $530 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with major destinations including Russia, Brazil, Singapore, Turkey, the UK, and Vietnam [3] - Other circuit protection devices, such as residual current devices, also experienced growth, with exports amounting to $320 million, a 4.2% increase year-on-year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future development of the Chinese low-voltage electrical industry is expected to focus on smart and green technologies, with emerging market expansion being a key strategy for overseas diversification [4] - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products forecasts that the total export value of the low-voltage electrical industry will exceed $22.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10% to 15% [4] - The second and third quarters are anticipated to maintain an export growth rate of 10% to 13%, supported by a strong order backlog, particularly from emerging markets [4]

智通财经APP获悉，对美国交易员来说，在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战扰乱标普500指数期间，新兴市场股票意外成为了回报的重要来源。不过，如果期 权市场提供的信号具有指导意义，这种优异的表现可能很快就会成为过去。 美国贸易政策的反复无常、以及随后美国国债收益率的飙升，引发了股市的剧烈波动，并导致美元大幅走弱，跌至近三年来的最低水平。芝加哥期权交易所 (Cboe)全球市场的衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示："美国现在的行为在很多方面更像是一个新兴市场经济体。" "更高的债券收益率，搭配更弱的美元 ——你会看到这种现象反映在股市波动率上。" 因此，投资者越来越多地转向新兴市场，以规避这些剧烈波动所带来的风险。在过去54个交易日中，标普500指数的波动率指数(VIX)高于Cboe新兴市场ETF 波动率指数的天数达到48天。追踪新兴市场的iShares MSCI新兴市场ETF(EEM)今年以来已经上涨了14%，创下自2009年以来相对于标普500指数的最大超额 收益。 随着特朗普政府所谓的90天"关税暂停"将在7月初到期，投机者现在开始为新兴市场可能出现的更多波动做好准备。数据显示，该ETF的看跌期权未平仓合 约相 ...

风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 13 日 看好（维持） 家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 5 月线上零售喜人，价格内卷或步入尾声 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 家电内销有望受益政策拉动，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待，后续国补补贴方式变化但扰动有限；出口方面新兴市场潜力可期， 对美出口扰动因为全球产能布局也无需过忧，供应链优势带来的全球格局重塑机会则需 重视。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议关 注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；建议关注海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口 优质企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；建议关注短 期受益国补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议 ...

杨孝强称："美元疲软的趋势不会改变，所以我们对新兴市场的债券持比较正面的看法，因为对于新兴 市场本币债来说，美元相对新兴市场本币贬值，会对本币债有一个正面回报的影响。" 过去一段时间，美元资产从全球市场"香饽饽"骤然变成抛售对象，传统的避险资产美元、美债信用崩 塌，不再受到青睐。许多市场人士纷纷喊出，全球资产轮动开始，建议投资者从美元资产撤离，转而投 资欧洲资产和新兴市场资产。 而在美国、日本、欧洲都面临财政问题的背景下，仅就债券而言，美债、日债、欧债近期长端债券都表 现出很大的波动，收益率攀升。在此背景下，新兴市场债券投资价值似乎得到凸显。 那么，新兴市场债券投资吸引力何在？哪些具体的新兴市场经济体和行业企业最具投资价值？中国本土 债券和中资美元债目前能投吗？就这些问题，第一财经记者专访了瑞士百达资产管理新兴市场企业债联 席主管兼大中华区固定收益主管杨孝强（Cary Yeung）。 新兴市场债券投资价值凸显，关税政策影响有限 当前的全球资本市场，一方面，在"美国例外论"、美债信用、吸引力下降的背景下，新兴市场债券投资 机会凸显；另一方面，美国关税政策反复无常，以及由此带来的美联储降息受阻，又被认为或不利于新 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of DoubleLine Capital, Jeffrey Gundlach, predicts a long-term decline of the US dollar, suggesting that international stocks, particularly from emerging markets, will outperform US equities [1][2] - Gundlach emphasizes a trading strategy focused on holding stocks outside the US, particularly in regions like China and Southeast Asia, as the dollar enters a bear market [1][3] - The ICE Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% this year, reflecting a weakening dollar since 2025 due to aggressive policies from the Trump administration [1][3] Group 2 - Gundlach identifies India as a preferred long-term investment in emerging markets, while also considering Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Latin America as viable options [2] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions and unpredictable US policies may lead foreign investors to delay capital investments in the US market, potentially benefiting international markets [2] - Gundlach has maintained a negative outlook on the US market, citing several recession indicators and predicting a 3% inflation rate in the US by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3 - Many Wall Street institutions believe the recent rebound of the dollar is temporary, warning of a prolonged "dollar bear market" triggered by the chaotic trade policies of the Trump administration [3] - Morgan Stanley has issued warnings about the dollar's future, predicting a significant depreciation, with the dollar index potentially falling by 9% in the next year [3] - Non-US equities have significantly outperformed US stocks this year, with expectations that a new bull market will emerge in emerging markets as the dollar declines [3]

在新兴市场货币中，哥伦比亚比索兑美元领跌。 媒体报道称，该国将暂停执行财政制度。 ...