Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on debt management and operational performance, with a clear plan for debt repayment by 2025, aiming to reduce interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 140 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Debt Management - The company has effectively reduced interest-bearing liabilities by over 30 billion yuan in the past two years, with a projected decrease to 176.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 9% [2]. - The net debt ratio stands at 52%, with an asset-liability ratio of 57% after excluding advance receipts [2]. - The company is transitioning its debt structure by replacing short-term credit bonds with long-term financing from operational properties, leading to a financing cost reduction of 0.24 percentage points to 4.0%, the lowest in five years [2]. Operational Performance - The company’s operational business revenue reached 11.02 billion yuan from January to May, showing continuous growth year-on-year [1]. - The operational and service revenue is projected to be 26.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, contributing 70% to the gross profit [3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction while enhancing its operational business to support overall profitability, with commercial revenue growth of approximately 20% and daily customer traffic growth exceeding 25% [3]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.92 billion yuan, 8.15 billion yuan, and 8.51 billion yuan respectively, down from an earlier estimate of 9.89 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - A price-to-earnings (PE) valuation of 8x is assigned for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 10.24 HKD [3].

以前述安徽开工的重大项目为例，项目"向新向高"、结构"向好向优"，是其显著特点。据了解，这批项 目中，投向新兴产业项目271个、占比50.5%，年度计划投资304.1亿元、占比45.4%。其中，新能源汽车 项目51个，新材料项目53个。投向高技术项目137个、占比25.5%，年度计划投资168亿元、占比 25.1%。 下半年伊始，各地又有一批重大项目集中开工建设。 宋向清认为，从项目结构特点来看，新兴产业占比高是各地共性，新能源汽车、新材料等热门领域投资 强度加大，有助于推动当地产业结构向高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，增强经济发展的新动能和竞争 力，加快实现产业升级和新旧动能转换。 比如，7月1日，海南省临高县举行2025年下半年第一批项目集中开工暨抢拼经济誓师活动。本次集中开 工项目共21个，总投资额达19.84亿元，涵盖民生保障、生态环保、基础设施、园区产业等关键领域。7 月2日，安徽省举行2025年第三批重大项目开工动员会。据了解，今年安徽全省第三批开工动员项目537 个，总投资3240.8亿元；当年计划投资669.1亿元。其中，30亿元以上项目13个，50亿元以上项目8个， 新开工项目实现量与质的"双提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.24 HKD, corresponding to a PE valuation of 8x for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to navigate through the debt cycle successfully, with a clear repayment plan for debts maturing in 2025, aiming to reduce interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 140 billion RMB by the end of 2025 [1][7]. - The operational business continues to support the company's transformation, with operational revenue for January to May reaching 11.02 billion RMB, showing continuous growth year-on-year [1][7]. - The company has optimized its debt structure by replacing credit bonds with high-quality operational assets, enhancing financial safety [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 100.21 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7.92 billion RMB in 2025, down 23.8% from the previous year [3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 17.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 7.9% [3]. - The company has successfully reduced interest-bearing liabilities by over 30 billion RMB in the past two years, with a projected net debt ratio of 39.5% by 2027 [7][9]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on inventory reduction as a primary task, with operational and service revenue projected to reach 26.7 billion RMB in 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year [7]. - The commercial operations have shown a significant increase, with a 20% growth in turnover and over 25% increase in daily foot traffic in the first five months of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is undergoing a critical phase of transformation, with new momentum industries enhancing resilience against external risks through technological innovation and market demand [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing showing stable expansion [1]. - The added value of equipment manufacturing accounted for 36.7% of the total industrial output in May, maintaining above 30% for 27 months [2]. - High-tech manufacturing's added value grew by 8.6% year-on-year, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial growth [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth Expectations - From January to May, profits in the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall industrial profits [2]. - The PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in June was 51.4% and 50.9%, respectively, indicating continued expansion [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Policy Support - The development of new momentum industries is driven by the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with breakthroughs in key technologies in fields like 5G and artificial intelligence [3]. - Macro policies, including large-scale equipment upgrades and consumption incentives, have effectively released domestic demand and promoted industrial upgrades [3]. Group 4: Regional Development and Industry Integration - New momentum industries are creating new growth points and enhancing local economic vitality, with regions like Anhui showing significant growth in equipment manufacturing [3]. - The integration of high-tech and equipment manufacturing is fostering new business models, particularly in sectors like smart connected vehicles and high-end medical equipment [3]. Group 5: Challenges and Strategic Focus - Despite progress, some industries face challenges such as key technology bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions, necessitating sustained innovation investment and ecosystem improvement [4]. - The recovery in manufacturing is also a result of collaborative recovery across various sectors, highlighting the importance of maintaining connections between new and traditional industries [5].

本报记者 吴晓璐 受关注 今年以来，中国资产吸引了全球投资者的目光。截至7月2日，年内A股共有883家公司接待外资调研，其中，电子、医药生 物、机械设备行业公司较多，分别有142家、114家和104家。其中，深圳市汇川技术股份有限公司成为今年以来外资关注度最 高的上市公司，年内共迎来67轮调研，合计接待了485家次外资机构。深圳迈瑞生物医疗电子股份有限公司、澜起科技股份有 限公司分别获299家次、173家次外资调研。 中国经济较强的韧性，持续吸引外资关注，这从外资机构对A股上市公司的调研情况中可见一斑。据Wind资讯数据统计， 截至7月2日，今年以来，643家外资机构调研A股公司4835家次，其中，全球头部对冲基金Point72 Asset Management、高盛 （亚洲）证券有限公司调研均超百次。 电子、医药生物、机械设备行业是外资关注度较高的行业。从关注问题来看，今年以来，AI应用、人形机器人布局、创新 药研发、分红和并购计划等成为外资关注的热点话题。 电子、医药生物等领域 多方面因素叠加 中国资产吸引力提升 近日，多家国际投行上调中国经济增长预期。花旗将中国2025年GDP增长预期从4.7%上调至5 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing at 3454.79 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 543.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, with a trading volume of 833.8 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext index closed at 2123.72 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 393.8 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The steel, photovoltaic, coal, and marine economy sectors showed strong performance, while military, brain-computer interface, CPO, and semiconductor sectors faced declines [1][2] - Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded collectively, with nearly 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Marine economy concept stocks surged against the trend, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Steel and cyclical stocks were active, with companies like Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - Military stocks underwent adjustments, with Beifang Changlong dropping over 10% [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jufeng Investment Advisors, the market is experiencing fluctuations, with the steel sector performing well. The marine economy is emerging as a new thematic focus due to multiple catalysts [4] - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that the market remains strong under the expectation of policy support for the economy, with a dual rotation between consumption and technology sectors [4] - The long-term outlook suggests that with decreasing tariff uncertainties and a restructuring of the global monetary order, the valuation of Chinese equity assets may improve [4] Innovation and Technology - CITIC Securities highlighted the issuance of measures by the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Health Commission to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating a favorable environment for the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The report suggests embracing innovation-driven strategies and internationalization as key directions for investment in the second half of the year [5] Industry Developments - The world's largest single-unit capacity impact turbine has been successfully developed, marking a significant breakthrough in China's high-head, large-capacity turbine technology [7] - The turbine, with a capacity of 500 megawatts, will be used in the Zhala Hydropower Station, a key project for China's "Tibetan electricity export" initiative [7] Market Trends - The global DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high, driven by a significant increase in prices, with the DRAM market composite price index rising by 47.7% since the beginning of 2025 [9] - The traditional DRAM products are projected to experience a shift from oversupply to undersupply, impacting both server and consumer terminal markets [9]

Group 1 - The domestic economy shows strong resilience in industrial upgrading, consumption recovery, and innovation-driven growth, providing solid support for the capital market [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the total market capitalization of 5,429 listed companies in the A-share market reached 90.66 trillion yuan [1] - Experts predict that policies focusing on technological revolution and improving people's livelihoods will inject new momentum into economic growth in the second half of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market's total trading volume reached 162.64 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.35 trillion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains robust, with industrial enterprises' added value increasing by 8.0% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, and 28 out of 31 manufacturing sectors showing growth [3] - The consumer market is also vibrant, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 41,326 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [3] Group 3 - The government is implementing a series of policies to support high-quality financial development, including enhancing market liquidity and improving the regulatory environment [4] - The market is at a critical juncture with three converging turning points: economic recovery, market index recovery from a low of 2,600 points, and increased willingness of external funds to enter the market [5] - The "Buffett Indicator" shows that A-share market valuation is significantly lower than that of the US market, indicating potential for valuation recovery and market expansion [6] Group 4 - Domestic funds are increasingly entering the market, with stock ETFs seeing a net subscription of 206.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, driven by policies promoting index-based investment [7] - The economic transformation and ongoing policy support are creating numerous investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and consumer upgrades [7][8] - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the structural market trend, with technology and consumption sectors benefiting from policy support and market dynamics [8]

Core Viewpoint - Urban renewal is not merely about spatial transformation but also involves industrial iteration and upgrading, focusing on revitalizing idle assets and enhancing production operations to create space for emerging industries [1][4]. Group 1: Urban Renewal Objectives - Urban renewal is a long-term theme in modern urban development, requiring comprehensive city assessments and the enhancement of citizens' quality of life [1]. - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee and State Council emphasize key tasks, implementation mechanisms, and support conditions for urban renewal [1]. Group 2: New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - The conversion of new and old kinetic energy is crucial as it significantly impacts urban change and development, moving beyond reliance on population influx and capital investment [2]. - A diversified and multi-level funding mechanism is essential for urban renewal projects, encouraging participation from various stakeholders, including private enterprises and community members [2]. Group 3: Government and Financial Role - The government must take on primary responsibility for urban development and renewal, ensuring coordination between land planning and urban strategy while encouraging horizontal cooperation among city governments [3]. - Financial policies serve as a balancing mechanism for risk and return in urban renewal, with financial institutions playing a vital role in broadening financing channels [3]. Group 4: Industrial Upgrading and Community Involvement - Urban renewal should include industrial upgrading, transforming traditional spaces to accommodate emerging industries, such as modernizing old commercial areas into high-end business districts [4]. - Community involvement is critical in urban renewal, with residents acting as key participants in decision-making processes, enhancing the success of various urban "micro-renovation" projects [4].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a high-to-low reversal today, with banking stocks leading the decline and brokerage stocks showing unusual activity. AI hardware and non-ferrous metal concept stocks surged. The total trading volume for A-shares was 1.58 trillion, down from 1.62 trillion the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a collective drop, with nearly 20 banking stocks falling over 3%. The banking index closed at 7446.95, down 219.00 points or 2.86% [2][3] - Specific banks that experienced significant declines include Hangzhou Bank (-4.56%), Qingdao Bank (-4.36%), and China Merchants Bank (-3.47%) [2][3] - The decline in banking stocks may be attributed to three factors: profit-taking by market participants, a shift in market style leading to adjustments in high-priced stocks, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could pressure banks' profit margins [3] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector showed signs of collective rallying but ultimately faced a pullback. The brokerage index closed at 10635.91, down 5.19 points or 0.05% [4] - Notable performers in the brokerage sector included Tianfeng Securities (+7.89%) and Nanjing Futures (+6.99%) [4][5] Bull Market Sentiment - Analysts from various brokerages are increasingly optimistic about a potential bull market. Citic Securities predicts a significant bull market for Chinese equity assets, citing synchronized economic and policy cycles in major economies [6][7] - The key strategies suggested for the upcoming period include increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks, focusing on core assets, and targeting industries less affected by trade tensions [7] - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the current market resembles the conditions of 2019, with improving sentiment towards new and old economic drivers [8] Investment Opportunities - The current bull market phase is characterized by a focus on sectors with high growth potential, including AI hardware, human-like robots, solid-state batteries, and new consumption trends [10] - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to see a significant shift in investment styles, favoring high-quality stocks with potential for valuation recovery [9][10]