同在产业园内的山东达宁半导体有限公司，通过数字化管理实现月产LED线性光源300万米，生产周期 平均缩短2天，效率提升18%。园区内企业"上下楼即上下游"的协同模式日益成熟，集聚效应正推动新 一代信息技术产业集群加速成型。 走进山东菏泽市巨野县乾元半导体科技有限公司的无尘车间内，芯片测试分选设备稳定运行，工人们在 操作台前有条不紊地进行LED芯片的精密封装与精准调试。作为巨野县新一代信息技术产业园的龙头企 业，该公司总投资达15亿元，已构建起覆盖LED外延片设计、芯片测试分选、光电探测器芯片及深紫外 光LED器件与应用产品的完整产业链，整体技术达到国际先进水平。 "我们的MiniLED芯片尺寸较传统产品缩小20倍，已广泛应用于车灯、显示屏、城市亮化等领域。"山东 乾元半导体总经理曹存景介绍。 "十四五"以来，巨野县累计落地过亿元项目320个。其中2022年，落地项目107个，计划总投资307.26亿 元，超额完成"双百"目标。新增国家级高新技术企业52家，科技型中小企业80家，"专精特新"企业77 家，市级以上科技创新平台达到88个。累计实施省级重点项目85个，技改投资项目190个，技改投资年 均增长10%。 ...

全球锡矿资源高度集中在少数几个主要产区，呈现寡头格局。核心制约在于，主要矿山面临资源品位自 然下滑与新增项目受限的双重压力，而关键产区的地缘政治风险与政策不确定性，进一步限制了供应的 有效释放。国内资源供应亦呈现集中化趋势，主要由少数头部企业主导，资源的天然稀缺性构成了长期 且坚实的成本支撑。 中游：成本挤压与效率变革 尽管中国在全球冶炼产能中占据主要地位，但持续的原料短缺导致开工率难以提升。冶炼环节正承受显 著压力：原料采购面临高价与紧缺，而成本向下游的传导存在时滞，利润空间受到挤压。这一压力正推 动行业向更高效率与更集约化的模式演进，通过技术升级与智能化改造来应对挑战，行业集中度预计将 进一步提高。 下游：需求引擎的结构性转换 今日长江现货市场锡价走势趋势 截至2025年12月19日锡价延续强势，据长江有色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#锡报价为336,500- 338,500元/吨，均价337,500元/吨，较前一日上涨4,000元/吨。三日累计涨幅超5.5%，沪锡主力合约最新 收报338410元/吨，涨幅达1%触及2022年6月以来新高。当前市场由"供需紧平衡、地缘风险溢价与流动 性宽松预期"三重动力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transition from old to new growth drivers as a key factor influencing China's economic performance, particularly in the context of the real estate market adjustment and changes in domestic population and international geopolitical landscape [2][6][9] - The report forecasts that macroeconomic policies will maintain appropriate support, with a more active fiscal policy expected to arrange 12.28 trillion yuan in new government bonds, including a general public budget deficit of 5.88 trillion yuan, local government special bonds of 4.6 trillion yuan, and special government bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan [3][14] - It is anticipated that the GDP growth rate for 2026 will be around 4.7%, with domestic demand contributing more significantly to GDP growth, particularly through stable growth in household consumption and a recovery in investment driven by major project launches and government investment expansion [9][10][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that while the real estate market adjustment continues, its impact on economic growth is expected to weaken due to its declining share in the economy, with real estate investment declines projected to narrow from -16.5% in 2025 to between -10% and -15% in 2026 [10][12][44] - Inflationary pressures are expected to ease, with the CPI projected to rise by 0.5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in food prices and stable growth in non-rent service prices, although rental prices may continue to decline [38][41][44] - The external demand and trade policy environment are expected to remain relatively stable, with export growth projected at around 3% in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from 5.1% in 2025 [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the overall requirements and policy direction for economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the need to stabilize investment and address both old problems and new challenges in the economy [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Investment has faced downward pressure since 2025, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1] - While traditional engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas that support long-term national development, including national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2] - The construction of the Chengdu-Shanghai high-speed railway exemplifies how major infrastructure projects can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2] Group 3: Addressing Social Needs - Increasing investment in public services such as education, healthcare, and disaster prevention is crucial for improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand [3] - Investment in green transformation areas like energy conservation, carbon reduction, and ecological protection is essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing competitive advantages [3] Group 4: Investment Sources - Government investment plays a critical role in guiding overall investment, particularly in public sectors where market forces may not allocate resources effectively [4] - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is vital for sustaining investment growth, and measures must be taken to alleviate barriers and enhance confidence among private investors [4] Group 5: Policy Coordination - Accurate understanding of "what to invest in" and "who will invest" is essential for creating a cohesive policy approach that stimulates both government and private investment [5] - The focus should be on achieving short-term stabilization while also promoting long-term high-quality development, ensuring that investment recovery can contribute to economic transformation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing investment to drive economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted investment strategies to address both immediate and long-term economic challenges [1]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Since 2025, there has been increasing downward pressure on investment, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1]. - Traditional investment engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, while investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas that support national long-term development, including national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2]. - The construction of the Shanghai-Chongqing Railway serves as an example of how infrastructure projects can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2]. Group 3: Addressing Social Needs - Investments in public services such as education, healthcare, elderly care, and disaster prevention are crucial for improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand [3]. Group 4: Green Transition - There is significant investment potential in energy-saving, carbon reduction, ecological protection, and clean energy sectors, which are essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing China's competitive advantage [4]. Group 5: Investment Sources - Government investment plays a crucial role in guiding overall investment strategies, particularly in areas where the market cannot effectively allocate resources [4]. - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is vital for sustaining investment growth, and its activation requires practical measures to enhance market access and address barriers [5]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate private investment, it is essential to implement concrete measures that improve market conditions, provide stable policy expectations, and ensure fair market environments [5]. - The article suggests that a coordinated policy approach focusing on both immediate stabilization and long-term high-quality development can effectively revitalize investment [5].

分行业看，得益于新能源、光伏、风电等高技术制造业和高端装备制造业保持高速增长，带动有色金属产业链景气度上行，预计较2024年上涨4.2%。 农产品价格指数均值预计为96.7点，较上年下降0.4%，重要农产品供需基本保持稳定。 专家表示，2025年大宗商品指数总体呈现前低后高、企稳回升态势，表明我国经济结构正朝着更健康、更可持续的方向优化。展望2026年，中国经济的 强大韧性和巨大内需潜力依然是大宗商品市场最坚实的底盘。 央视网消息：12月19日，中国物流与采购联合会在2025大宗商品国际化发展大会上发布《中国大宗商品价格指数报告（2025）》。数据显示，今年大宗 商品市场总体平稳运行，新旧动能转换特征明显。 报告指出，2025年中国大宗商品价格指数均值预计为112.1点，较上年下降0.1%。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，2025年价格较 去年上涨的大宗商品有10种。其中，氧化镨钕、精炼锡和瓦楞纸年均价格预计较上年分别上涨43.4%、20.6%和18.5%。 ...

内容提要 3月下旬，10年期国债收益率调整到1.9%左右已经基本完成了对之前极端预期的修正，性价比也在修复，部分配置盘开始入场。叠加3月税期央行公开市场 操作转为净投放，MLF自2024年8月以来首次净投放且提前公布投放量，市场认为央行态度或有所软化，3月底，10年期国债利率中枢下行至1.8%左右。 4月3日，美宣布对华加征34%的"对等关税"，大超市场预期。清明假期中国宣布对美国采取反制措施，避险情绪高涨，全球风险资产大跌，关税冲击下国内 宽货币预期升温。清明假期后，在外需风险、避险情绪及国内宽货币预期升温的背景下，10年期国债收益率于4月7日大幅下行至1.63%的阶段性低位。 2025年外部扰动不断，我国宏观经济韧性凸显，财政政策积极发力，货币政策延续支持性立场，债券市场震荡，大致可划分为五个阶段。2026年债市有可能 保持"低利率+高波动+下有底、上有顶"特征，利率运行中枢持平或小幅提升概率较高，债市投资仍面临艰巨考验。 一、2025债券市场回顾 2024年债市行情演绎过快，对基本面及货币宽松预期过度透支，使得2025年收益率下行空间被提前压缩，因此2025年债市更多地是对"透支"的理性修复。与 此同时 ...

专家表示，2025年大宗商品指数总体呈现前低后高、企稳回升态势，表明我国经济结构正朝着更健康、 更可持续的方向优化。展望2026年，中国经济的强大韧性和巨大内需潜力依然是大宗商品市场最坚实的 底盘。 （总台央视记者 丛威娜 盛洁） 今天（19日），中国物流与采购联合会在2025大宗商品国际化发展大会上发布《中国大宗商品价格指数 报告（2025）》。数据显示，今年大宗商品市场总体平稳运行，新旧动能转换特征明显。 报告指出，2025年中国大宗商品价格指数均值预计为112.1点，较上年下降0.1%。在中国物流与采购联 合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，2025年价格较去年上涨的大宗商品有10种。其中，氧化镨钕、精炼锡 和瓦楞纸年均价格预计较上年分别上涨43.4%、20.6%和18.5%。 分行业看，得益于新能源、光伏、风电等高技术制造业和高端装备制造业保持高速增长，带动有色金属 产业链景气度上行，预计较2024年上涨4.2%。农产品价格指数均值预计为96.7点，较上年下降0.4%，重 要农产品供需基本保持稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cooperation agreement between Wuxi Airport Economic Development Zone and German company WEIDMANN marks a significant investment of approximately €125 million in high-efficiency motor R&D and production, enhancing the competitiveness of the region's high-end intelligent equipment industry [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Development - WEIDMANN's new project in Wuxi is its second investment in the area, following the completion of its first project in May, which had a total investment of €150 million and is expected to generate an annual output value of 1.5 billion RMB [2] - The Wuxi Airport Economic Development Zone has focused on attracting major projects, with 18 significant projects registered this year, totaling over 13 billion RMB in investment, including one project exceeding 5 billion RMB and three projects exceeding 1 billion RMB [2] Group 2: Industry Transformation and Innovation - The development of the titanium large centrifugal compressor project is a key initiative, with an investment of 1 billion RMB aimed at producing 360 units annually, supporting the domestic replacement of energy equipment and promoting the development of the upstream and downstream industrial chain [3] - Wuxi Songyu Technology's new project, with an investment of 500 million RMB, focuses on photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment, expected to produce 740 units annually, addressing the demand for core process equipment in integrated circuits and new energy sectors [4] Group 3: Service Optimization and Project Management - The Wuxi Airport Economic Development Zone emphasizes project management with five key performance indicators to accelerate project construction, including the rate of project registration, commencement, investment completion, and production efficiency [6] - A dedicated service team has been established to listen to enterprise needs and ensure a closed-loop process for addressing concerns, enhancing the overall service efficiency for businesses in the region [6]

新旧动能转换之下，交易者的资产配置方向也在发生变化。第七届平安赛重量组总亚军周文威坦言，现 有配置需求更需要一些能够做对冲的资产，来进行风险管理甚至增强收益。常年辗转于海内外各大市场 的轻量组总亚军王煜，则更强调多种工具灵活应用的重要性。 中加基金首席经济学家邓海清在会上表示，2026年资本市场生态与资金结构将迎来深刻变革，中国经济 向高端制造、科技创新转型的核心趋势已然明朗，那些能够代表中国在新一轮全球产业与金融秩序重塑 中占据有利位置的企业，将成为这个时代最具价值的资产锚点。 平安基金权益投资基金经理周思聪表示，在第四次科技革命深入演进的背景下，AI、算力、半导体、 创新药等领域迎来关键时刻。其中，中国创新药行业在技术周期、政策周期和利率环境的三重支撑下厚 积薄发。 平安期货研究所所长李晨阳认为，贵金属长期上行格局未改，同时紧扣"反内卷"政策导向，在国内经济 转型下，大宗商品下行压力趋缓，随着国内经济结构的调整转向，新旧动能转换下品种分化也将愈发显 著。 （来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 近日，由平安期货、平安证券联合主办的2026全球交易者大会暨中国平安第七届全国期货实盘大赛颁奖 典礼在深圳福 ...