【文/观察者网 王一】顶着美国特朗普政府要求降息的施压，美国联邦储备委员会5月7日第三次宣布维 持利率在4.25%至4.50%的区间不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在新闻发布会上表示，"特朗普要求降息根本不会影响到美联储的工作。在某些 情况下今年降息是合适的，在某些情况下降息是不合适的，不能自信地说知道合适的利率路径"。 美联储宣布维持利率不变 2024年下半年几次降息后，今年1月和3月，美联储都决定维持利率不变。这次货币政策会议召开之际， 正值美国金融市场和经济因特朗普关税而处于高度动荡之时，外界普遍认为美联储会继续观望关税对经 济的影响再采取行动。 "目前美联储仍处于观望状态，等待不确定性消除，"高盛资产管理公司首席投资官阿希什·沙阿分析 称，近期好于预期的就业数据支持了美联储的观望立场，劳动力市场只有充分走弱，美联储才会重新开 启宽松周期。 2000年至今的联邦基金利率目标《华尔街日报》制图 美联储符合市场预期的利率决定公布后，美股当日交易基本持平，10年期美国国债收益率小幅下跌0.03 个百分点至4.28%。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上称，他还不能说"这将如何发展"，即是更担心通胀还是增长。美国《纽约时报》 指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Illinois Tool Works (ITW) faces significant challenges under Trump's tariff policies, leading to a downgrade in stock rating from "Hold" to "Sell" and a target price reduction from $245 to $220 per share [1] - ITW's stock price has shown little change, currently at $239.99, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 5%, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices, which have increased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively [1] - The analyst highlights that ITW's diverse business model, which includes automotive parts, food equipment, electronic testing instruments, welding equipment, and construction products, makes it particularly vulnerable to tariff disruptions, especially due to its high involvement in the automotive and consumer goods sectors [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that ITW's earnings expectations are under pressure due to slowing organic growth, with negative earnings forecast revisions primarily stemming from weak internal growth [1] - Currently, only 14% of analysts recommend a "Buy" rating for ITW, compared to an average of 55% for S&P 500 constituents, with an average target price of $250 per share [1] - The increase in "Sell" ratings to 23% for ITW is significantly higher than the average for S&P 500 stocks, which reflects a growing concern among analysts [2] - Despite ITW's strong business execution, the current valuation is seen as fully reflecting this advantage, with a forward P/E ratio of 23 times 2025 earnings, above the S&P 500 average of 21 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in supply chain dynamics due to escalating trade tensions, with retailers like Luke Therrien opting to bypass American middlemen and establish direct connections with Chinese suppliers, aiming for a more sustainable and cost-effective supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Retailers are increasingly seeking direct relationships with Chinese suppliers to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions [1][3]. - The shift to direct sourcing may lead to longer procurement times and logistical challenges, but it is seen as beneficial in the long run from a pricing perspective [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - U.S. tariffs and unpredictable trade policies have created chaos in the American market, leading to confusion among exporters regarding customs and tax obligations [3][4]. - Exporters who previously relied heavily on the U.S. market are now considering diversifying their markets due to the instability caused by U.S. trade policies [4][5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Confidence - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a trade currency remains significant, providing exporters with predictable payment methods, despite increasing risks [4][5]. - Recent economic turmoil and criticism of U.S. trade policies have shaken confidence in the dollar, with notable figures like Warren Buffett expressing concerns about investing in a currency perceived as unstable [5][6]. Group 4: China’s Response to Trade Tensions - China has taken a firm stance against U.S. unilateral tariff measures, emphasizing its commitment to defending its economic interests while remaining open to dialogue [6]. - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff adjustments, reflecting a strategic approach to international trade relations [6].

美联储周四凌晨将公布利率决议，预计本次继续维持利率不变，但由于特朗普的关税给经济前景蒙上了不确定性的阴影，这可能是最后一次能够如此笃定预 测结果的美联储会议。美联储决策官员预计，关税将推高通胀和失业率，但具体程度和持续时间尚不清楚。而就业数据强劲为美联储提供了继续等待的空 间，美联储要到6月才会发布新的季度预测，因此投资者关注主席鲍威尔的会后记者会，以寻找有关利率走势的线索。 彭博社列举了美联储保持耐心的四大理由： 经济前景异常黯淡，美国关税快速上调且幅度远超美联储官员预期，这在历史上尚属首次。 美国的增长潜力急剧下降，贸易政策的转变将损害生产力增长；劳动力增长的大幅下降也将抑制经济活动。 鉴于通胀率有望连续第五年超过美联储2%的目标，政策制定者需要谨慎行事，避免犯下可能导致通胀预期失控的错误。 鉴于特朗普总统对美联储政策的攻击，耐心也变得更加重要，否则降息会被解读为屈服于白宫的压力，考验着美联储的独立性。 旨在预测美联储行动的掉期合约预期美联储6月开始降息，未来利率走势暗示，到今年年底，美联储将把联邦基金利率目标下调75个基点至100个基点。也有 一些人预测美联储今年不会采取行动。由于个人支出疲软和通胀放缓 ...

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累为进 口增加、政府支出减少，同时美国消费韧性也在下降。4 月美国非农数据显示美国就业市场近期保 持了相对平稳，市场降息预期降温。若特朗普关税倾向不改，特朗普关税等政策对美国经济的负面 冲击预计将持续，未来美国就业市场、GDP增长难言乐观。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累 为进口增加、政府支出减少。 从私人投资细分项来看，美国私人投资项中最高贡献项为私人库存增加，其次为企业投资项增 加，但其主要由关税政策下抢库存推动，企业未来库存预期实际上在下降。美国GDP私人存货变 化的领先指标出现下降迹象，中小企业的库存扩张计划预期在特朗普上台后也显著下滑。美国企 业累库行为未来或随着关税政策逐步落地而减弱，美国GDP私人存货变化对美国GDP的正向贡献 或将随之下降。 ▍ 美国企业投资或仍有一定韧性，但美国住宅投资受高利率抑制。 美国制造业核心资本品新订单从2 0 2 4年末开始提升 ...

参与会议的美国大型银行和美国信投公司的高层解释了许多企业对关税的担忧。美国花旗集 团首席执行官Jane Fraser表示，客户企业"把部分支出提前，并推迟投资决策。仍在观望中"。 Jane Fraser还表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如果是25%则不可承 受"。美国已对许多国家和地区实施了统一的10%的对等关税，在此基础上的附加部分除了中 国之外已暂时停止。 美国大型投资公司KKR的联合创始人Henry Kravis表示，最近对话的企业经营者都将"关税视 为首要课题，正在考虑如何应对"。与他一起发言的KKR联合创始人George Roberts表示，由 于美国政府在某些领域表现出让步的姿态，在单独进行的双边贸易谈判中"将达成协议"，持乐 观态度。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）竹内弘文 洛杉矶 出席米尔肯研究所全球会议的国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃（5月5日，洛杉矶，REUTERS） IMF总裁指出，特朗普关税将改变传统的国际贸易体系，转向新体系伴随着不确定 性，"影响深远"。花旗集团CEO表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如 果是25%则不可 ...

【导读】国际金价再度飙升，突破3300美元/盎司关口 中国基金报记者 忆山 在经历短暂回调后，国际金价再次大涨！ 5月5日，黄金期货和现货价格均再次突破3300美元/盎司关口。截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3302.3美元/盎司，上涨1.82%；伦敦金现 报3301.054美元/盎司，上涨1.87%。 | | 864 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:27 | 3302.1 | 2 | | | 43 | 3302.2 | | | Manager of the Research of the | 15:21 | 3302.6 | 25 | 此前，国际金价曾连续下跌，4月30日至5月2日期间，COMEX黄金、伦敦金现跌幅分别为3%、2.29%。受此影响，"五一"期间国内 首饰金价也普遍跌破1000元/克关口，部分品牌报价甚至重回"8字头"。 当前，特朗普关税政策、美联储降息预期、地缘风险等因素的变化，仍然是影响金价的主要原因。 福能期货分析，由于全球市场经济数据显示欧元区通胀超预期，美国降息预期有所回落，节假日期间外盘贵金属价格出现回落。 不过，5月5日，美国总统特朗普最新 ...

虽然以上国家和地区，并没有从明面上达成共识，要共同反制特朗普的关税政策，但这么多经济体，各自通过自己的方式对美说不，本质上已经构成了类似 于"反特朗普关税防线"的效果，因此一定程度上来说，当下是中方"援手"全部到齐，美国越发走向众叛亲离。 不止如此，就连美国国内，对特朗普的支持声也开始肉眼可见地降低，就在日前，特朗普才达成一项重大成就：以39%支持率创造了美国80年来历任总 统"百日执政"的最差民调表现。有意思的是，此前特朗普在国会发表演讲时还曾高调吹嘘自己新任期的开场表现，自封美国有史以来"最伟大总统"。 关税阴谋失败，特朗普开始要"讲道理"了吗？如今美国面临的危机有多大？ 日前美国总统特朗普做出了一番堪称搞笑的表态，他表示在关税谈判上，自己将会开始"讲道理"（We will be reasonable on tarrifs.）。释放出怎样的信号呢？ 在这之前，特朗普乃至白宫甚至整个特朗普政府，都在不断对外宣扬，已经有很多国家主动找到特朗普政府求饶，希望能尽快和美国达成贸易协议，以换取 美国的关税豁免。特朗普甚至还异常惊人地宣称很多国家高层等着要"亲吻我的屁股"。 但与之相对应的是，似乎没有一桩已经明确达成 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing economists' expectations of 130,000, although it was lower than the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was led by the healthcare and transportation sectors, while manufacturing saw significant job losses due to a decline in overall PMI output [6] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced its highest job growth since December, driven by a surge in import orders before the implementation of tariffs [6] - The federal government has seen job cuts for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak of layoffs since 2022, primarily due to budget cuts [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economists predict that the most severe impacts of tariff policies will manifest in the coming months, potentially accelerating layoffs [5][8] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months has increased significantly, with estimates rising from 30% to 45% [9] - Consumer confidence has dropped to historical lows, and households are expected to face reduced spending power due to inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the PCE price index has eased market concerns about a resurgence of high inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - The March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since last autumn, slightly above the expected 2.2% [4][6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.8%, with both PCE and core PCE showing no month-on-month change [2][4][6]. - Consumer spending in March increased by 0.7%, the largest gain since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [6]. - The probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 65.5%, while the likelihood of a cut next week remains low at 5.6% [12]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are cautious but may consider rate cuts if the labor market weakens significantly due to tariff policies [12][13]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as it may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [13]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the core PCE price index could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, marking a new high since September 2024 [8]. - The Fed's potential actions may be influenced by the outcome of trade agreements and the overall economic data in the coming months [12].