Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key measures and tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of proactive fiscal policies to enhance public welfare and ensure sustainable economic development [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market while promoting high-level technological self-reliance [2][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on improving people's livelihoods and ensuring the continuous enhancement of public welfare [2][5]. - The government will adopt a balanced approach to development and security, using efficient fiscal governance to promote high-quality development [1][2]. Debt Management and Risk Prevention - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks [7][9]. - The newly formed Debt Management Department will oversee central and local debt management, bond issuance, and the prevention of hidden debt risks [8][9]. - The government aims to eliminate hidden debts by 2028, with 2026 and 2027 being critical years for addressing local debt risks [10]. Fiscal Sustainability - Enhancing fiscal sustainability is essential for addressing the challenges posed by economic and fiscal pressures, including the need for increased spending in key areas such as consumption and employment [5][6]. - The government will focus on optimizing the structure of government debt and ensuring a reasonable balance between different types of debt [9][10]. - A comprehensive monitoring and regulatory system for all types of debt will be established to ensure effective management and prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts [9][10].

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing through the issuance of bonds, with a total of approximately 91,062 billion yuan issued in the first ten months of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 23% [1][5] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, but has shown a downward trend since July, with October's issuance at approximately 5,600 billion yuan, slightly above January's level [1][4] Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first ten months, about 60% of the funds raised by local governments were used to repay old debts, while around 40% were allocated for major project construction [4][5] - The issuance of new local government bonds totaled approximately 47,000 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, while refinancing bonds reached 44,000 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 58% [5][6] - The refinancing bonds are primarily aimed at repaying maturing government bonds and replacing hidden debts, which helps to optimize the debt structure and alleviate repayment pressure [5][6] Special Bonds and Project Funding - Approximately 12,500 billion yuan of special new bonds were issued, specifically aimed at resolving hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [5][6] - Of the new special bonds issued, about 90% of the annual quota has been utilized, with 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [6][7] Debt Management and Risk Control - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with the total debt balance as of September 2025 being 536,995 billion yuan, well within the approved limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan [7] - In the first three quarters, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds [7]

Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds in China reached approximately 91,062 billion yuan in the first ten months of this year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [1] - The issuance scale of over 90 trillion yuan is the highest for the same period in history, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at promoting economic stability [1] - Local government bond issuance accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, but has shown a downward trend since July, with October's issuance at around 5,600 billion yuan, only slightly higher than January's issuance [1] - The overall work on local government bond issuance is nearing completion [1]

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a total issuance of approximately 91,062 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in issuance from July onwards, culminating in approximately 5,600 billion yuan in October, slightly above January's issuance [3][5]. - Of the 91,062 billion yuan borrowed, around 60% was allocated to repay old debts, while approximately 40% was directed towards major project construction [5][7]. - The new local government bonds issued included about 47,000 billion yuan in new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 44,000 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year), primarily aimed at repaying existing debts [5][7]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Funding - A total of approximately 12,500 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, specifically for resolving local government hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises, indicating a focus on debt repayment [7][8]. - The majority of new special bonds were utilized for significant public projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [8]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - As of September 2025, the total local government debt stood at 536,995 billion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are generally manageable [9]. - In the first three quarters of the year, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds, demonstrating the ability to meet debt obligations [9].

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing through the issuance of bonds, reaching a record high of approximately 9.1 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Trends - In the first ten months of this year, local government bond issuance totaled about 91,062 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [1]. - The issuance of local government bonds accelerated notably in the first half of the year, but began to decline after July, with October's issuance at around 5,600 billion yuan, slightly above January's level [1][4]. - An additional 500 billion yuan in local government bonds has been authorized for issuance in mid-October, with 300 billion yuan aimed at enhancing local government financial capacity and 200 billion yuan for supporting key projects in major economic provinces [4]. Group 2: Use of Borrowed Funds - Approximately 60% of the funds raised through local government bonds in the first ten months were used for repaying old debts, while about 40% were allocated for major project construction [4][6]. - Of the 9.1 trillion yuan in bonds issued, around 4.7 trillion yuan were new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 4.4 trillion yuan were refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year) [4][6]. - The refinancing bonds are primarily used to repay maturing government bond principal and to replace hidden debts, thereby optimizing the debt structure and alleviating repayment pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Project Allocation - In the first ten months, local governments issued approximately 1.25 trillion yuan in special new bonds specifically for resolving hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [6]. - The total scale of "borrowing new to repay old" is about 5.65 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 62% of the total bond issuance during this period [6]. - The newly issued special bonds mainly focus on major public welfare projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [6]. Group 4: Debt Management and Safety - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with the total debt balance as of September 2025 being 53,699.5 billion yuan, well within the approved debt limit [7]. - In the first three quarters, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds [7].

10 月我国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%；资金面持续宽松，债市延续暖势 【内容摘要】10 月 31 日，资金面持续宽松；债市延续暖势；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转 债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【习近平出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议并发表重要讲话】当地时间 10 月 31 日上午，亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议第一阶段会议在韩国庆州和白会议中心 举行。国家主席习近平出席会议并发表题为《共建普惠包容的开放型亚太经济》的重要讲话。 习近平在讲话中指出，亚太经合组织成立 30 多年来，引领亚太地区走在全球开放发展前列， 助力亚太成为全球经济最具活力的地区。当前，世界百年变局加速演进，亚太地区发展面临的 不稳定不确定因素增多。越是风高浪急，越要同舟共济。各方要坚守亚太经合组织促进经济增 长、增进人民福祉的初衷，坚持在开放发展中分享机遇、实现共赢，推进普惠包容的经济全球 化，构建亚太共同体。 【李强主持召开国常会，研究深化重点领域改革扩大制度型开放工作】国务院总理李强 10 月 31 日主持召开国务院常务会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Debt Management Division" by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the management and monitoring of government debt, prevent hidden debt risks, and ensure sustainable fiscal development over the next five years [1][4]. Group 1: Establishment of Debt Management Division - The Ministry of Finance has officially set up the "Debt Management Division" to oversee domestic debt management policies and strengthen monitoring [1][2]. - The division's responsibilities include formulating and executing government debt management policies, managing the issuance and repayment of government bonds, and monitoring hidden debt risks [2][4]. Group 2: Leadership and Structure - The division is led by Director Li Dawei, who previously served as the Director of the Government Debt Research and Evaluation Center [3][4]. - The division comprises six departments focusing on various aspects of debt management, including central and local government debt [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy for the Next Five Years - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, emphasized the importance of preventing and resolving local government debt risks while promoting sustainable fiscal development [4][5]. - A strict policy against the creation of new hidden debts will be enforced, and a unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt will be established [4][5]. Group 4: Focus Areas for Fiscal Spending - Future fiscal spending will prioritize areas such as boosting domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and enhancing public welfare [6]. - The government aims to optimize fiscal expenditure structures and focus resources on high-impact areas while minimizing direct intervention in microeconomic activities [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance government debt management mechanisms, ensuring alignment with high-quality development and risk mitigation in local government debt [4][5]. Group 1: Organizational Structure - The Debt Management Department is now listed as a department of the Ministry of Finance, with Li Dawei as the director and Qu Fuguo and Zhao Zeyong as deputy directors [1][6]. - The department consists of six divisions: Comprehensive Division, Central Debt Division, Local Debt Division I, Local Debt Division II, Issuance and Payment Division, and Monitoring Management Division [1]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Goals - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Department include formulating and implementing domestic debt management policies, managing both central and local government debts, and enhancing monitoring to prevent hidden debt risks [4][5]. - The goal is to establish a long-term debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, which is essential for mitigating local government debt risks and achieving the objectives of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5]. Group 3: Current Debt Situation - As of the end of 2024, China's total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, comprising 34.6 trillion yuan in national debt, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debt, and 10.5 trillion yuan in local government hidden debt, resulting in a government debt ratio of 68.7% [5]. - The overall debt ratio is considered reasonable, with manageable risks, as it corresponds to a significant amount of quality assets [5]. Group 4: Policy Implementation - Li Dawei announced that the Ministry of Finance will continue to allocate new local government debt limits for 2026 in advance to support key projects and ensure economic recovery [7]. - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated from the existing local government debt limits to enhance local financial capacity and support project construction in economically significant provinces [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost residents' income and optimize income distribution [3]. - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [3]. - The use of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction, thereby expanding effective investment [3]. Group 2: Technological Independence - The focus will be on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology, particularly in basic and applied research [4]. - The government will enhance the efficiency of technology innovation investments and promote the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [4]. Group 3: Improving Livelihoods - The government will prioritize employment, support enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and address employment issues for key groups [4]. - There will be efforts to improve education quality, strengthen social security networks, and enhance public health services [4]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - The strategy includes promoting urban-rural integration and expanding modernization development space through diverse investment mechanisms and comprehensive rural revitalization [5]. - Support will be provided for high-standard farmland construction and the implementation of compensation mechanisms for grain production and sales [5]. Group 5: Fiscal Management and Reform - The government will deepen reforms and strengthen supervision to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness, including optimizing tax structures and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [5]. - A focus will be placed on preventing and resolving local government debt risks, with strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [1] Group 1: Expansion of Domestic Demand - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing residents' income and optimizing income distribution [2] - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [2] - The use of special bonds and long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction [2] Group 2: Technological Independence and Innovation - The focus is on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology [3] - The government will enhance the allocation and management of central fiscal science and technology funds to improve the effectiveness of innovation investments [3] - Traditional industries will be optimized while new and future industries are cultivated to promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 3: Improvement of People's Livelihood - The government prioritizes employment and supports enterprises in stabilizing and expanding jobs, addressing employment issues for key groups [4] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing social security networks and improving public health service systems [4] - Policies will be implemented to optimize the supply of elderly care and childcare services, contributing to overall social welfare [4] Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Development - The government will promote urban-rural integration and expand modernization development space by supporting rural revitalization and enhancing agricultural productivity [5] - Investment in rural infrastructure and public services will be prioritized to create livable and workable rural areas [5] - The strategy includes implementing regional coordinated development to optimize economic development space [5] Group 5: Fiscal Management and Debt Risk Prevention - The government aims to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness through reforms and strengthened supervision [6] - A focus on optimizing the tax structure and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments will be pursued [6] - Measures will be taken to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, including strict regulations against the creation of new hidden debts [6]