Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent comments regarding Taiwan and the decision to dissolve the House of Representatives have sparked widespread criticism and opposition within Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Political Actions and Reactions - Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day of the Diet has been criticized as a waste of public financial resources, especially amid rising prices and increasing pressure on citizens' livelihoods [3]. - The Social Democratic Party leader, Mizuho Fukushima, expressed concerns over Takaichi's actions, questioning the lack of a formal opening ceremony and the absence of discussions on policy directions or budget matters before the dissolution [5]. - Organizers of a recent rally highlighted the economic deterioration linked to Takaichi's comments about Taiwan, questioning the necessity of using taxpayer money for elections during such challenging times [7]. Group 2: Defense Spending and Public Sentiment - There is a growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among the Japanese public regarding Takaichi's administration, particularly concerning the increasing defense budget and the neglect of social welfare issues [8]. - Participants at the rally expressed concerns that Takaichi's rhetoric is inciting a sense of crisis among citizens, potentially leading to support for military expansion, which they view as a dangerous approach for Japan's democracy and regional peace [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Municipal Finance Work Conference emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to support the city's development goals, particularly in the context of the upcoming APEC meeting in 2026 [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Management - The city will implement a "big finance, big assets, big budget" concept to enhance fiscal management and ensure necessary expenditure [1] - There will be a focus on optimizing the precise allocation of fiscal funds and strengthening the collaboration between finance and fiscal policies [1] - The aim is to improve the overall level of fiscal work and governance efficiency to support Shenzhen's ambition to become a globally influential economic center [1] Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The city will prioritize domestic demand, aiming to expand potential consumption and effective investment [1] - Innovation will be driven by supporting the cultivation of new growth drivers and promoting integrated development in education, technology, and talent [1] - There will be a commitment to addressing people's needs by effectively managing social welfare initiatives [1] - The city plans to broaden its financial sources to solidify the financial foundation for high-quality development [1] - Further reforms in the fiscal and tax system will be pursued to empower economic growth [1] - The modernization of fiscal governance will be enhanced through scientific management practices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to promote high-quality economic and social development, ensuring that fiscal deficits, debt levels, and total expenditures remain at necessary levels while focusing on key areas of support [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - The fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure for 2026 will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease," with a focus on strengthening key areas of support [3]. - The government plans to continue expanding the fiscal expenditure framework in 2026, building on the more proactive measures of 2025, indicating a very positive policy stance [3]. - There will be a continuous optimization of expenditure structure to ensure funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" expenditure solidification pattern, and actively applying zero-based budgeting principles to reduce ineffective spending [3]. Group 2: Efficiency and Effectiveness of Fund Utilization - Every penny spent must generate the expected benefits, with plans to arrange super long-term special government bonds in 2026 for "two heavy" constructions and "two new" initiatives, while optimizing policy implementation [5]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal and financial collaboration, exploring innovative policy tools to amplify the effects of public funds and the spillover effects of public policies [5]. - There will be a focus on deepening fiscal and tax reforms to further stimulate the internal vitality of the economy, optimizing transfer payment structures, and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [5].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing relatively small fluctuations compared to the equity market, with a notable "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds becoming less pronounced [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in re-lending quotas, indicating a focus on structural tools rather than broad monetary policy [2] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is set to be more proactive, with a commitment to maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure, ensuring that overall spending increases while key areas remain robust [3] Group 2 - Recent movements in overseas long-term yields, particularly in the US and Japan, have had limited direct impact on China's bond market, although they reflect broader economic concerns [4] - The reversal of yen carry trades may continue to disrupt markets, potentially benefiting safe-haven assets like gold, while the direct influence on China's bond market remains limited [5] - The overall macroeconomic environment remains unchanged, with the bond market under pressure and the "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds expected to return, although short-term drivers for the bond market are limited [6]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the release of positive signals regarding macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing domestic demand, particularly through fiscal measures and strategic planning for the years 2026 to 2030 [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on high-tech industries and urban-rural income growth [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance indicated that in 2026, there will be an increase in fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, with a commitment to maintain overall spending intensity [1][2] Group 2 - The target GDP growth rate for 2025 is set at 5%, with an aim to reach a total economic output of 140 trillion yuan [2] - The government plans to implement a series of supportive policies for private investment and consumption, with a focus on coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [2][3] - The current economic environment shows a persistent issue of strong supply but weak demand, leading to low consumer price growth and insufficient consumer willingness [3][4] Group 3 - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with short-term focus on equity market trends and medium-term attention on the effectiveness of policies to boost economic momentum [4] - The anticipated implementation of accommodative monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures is expected to mitigate upward pressure on bond yields [3][4] - The bond market's response to macroeconomic data has been limited, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market and the lack of immediate significant easing measures [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on January 20 to discuss the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development, with a focus on considerations for fiscal policy in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance provided insights into the strategic direction of fiscal policy aimed at enhancing economic growth and social welfare [1] - Emphasis was placed on the importance of fiscal measures in stabilizing the economy and supporting key sectors [1] - The discussion highlighted the government's commitment to maintaining a proactive fiscal stance to address economic challenges [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 19 basis points, marking the largest increase since 2022 [1] - The 30-year bond yield surged by 26.5 basis points to 3.875%, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 27 basis points to 4.215%, the first time yields exceeded 4% since 1995 [1] - The immediate cause of the bond market turmoil was Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for new elections, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal policy [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming elections are likely to lead to increased government bond issuance, as the budget proposal cannot be approved before the elections, potentially exacerbating the depreciation of the yen [2] - The government's fiscal discipline may weaken, leading to temporary measures that could further pressure the yen and delay the normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [2] - If the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wins a majority, there may be an acceleration in aggressive fiscal policies, increasing bond issuance and making it harder to reverse the trends of yen depreciation and bond declines [2] Group 3 - Prime Minister Kishida has not addressed high inflation as promised, and the government's fiscal policies rely on increased bond issuance, which could lead to rising prices and further yen depreciation [3] - The depreciation of the yen and declining bond values have prompted investors to sell yen and invest in foreign stocks, with Japanese investments in U.S. ETFs increasing significantly [3] - The Japanese stock market has been rising, attributed to the issuance of deficit bonds, but without improvements in productivity, this could lead to further inflationary pressures [3] Group 4 - The bond market's reaction indicates a clear rejection of the current fiscal policies by the Japanese government, with future bond performance dependent on the outcomes of the February elections [4] - The decline in Japanese bonds has impacted global markets, with U.S. bonds also facing downward pressure due to domestic fiscal issues [4] - Concerns about fiscal stability in Europe and the U.S. may lead to a shift of international funds towards Japan, potentially stabilizing Japanese bond prices in the future [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Bullish on iron ore in the black building materials sector [3] Group 2 - Core view: The iron ore market has certain positive factors, and short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [3] Group 3 1. Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [3] 2. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3] - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a 6.66% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 3.70% increase year - on - year. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, an 8.30% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.53% increase year - on - year [3] - From January 12th to January 18th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1736 billion tons, a decrease of 816,000 tons from the previous period, slightly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Market Logic - Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased. Domestic mine production has increased, and port iron ore inventories continue to accumulate. The daily average hot metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week but an increase of 35,300 tons compared to the previous year [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions and set stop - losses. The support level is lowered to 780, and the resistance level is 844 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from various government bodies signal a strong support for the real estate market, focusing on stabilizing income, enhancing consumer demand, and promoting urban renewal, which collectively aim to revitalize the housing sector and boost market confidence [2][3][22]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Consumer Demand - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and enhance consumer capacity, which is crucial for housing purchases as they represent significant consumer spending [5][6]. - The government is working on plans to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for releasing pent-up housing demand [7][22]. - The removal of unreasonable restrictions in the housing consumption sector aligns with the broader goal of facilitating genuine homebuyers in major cities [9][22]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance indicated that fiscal policies will continue to expand, ensuring increased government spending to support economic growth and indirectly benefit the real estate market [11][13]. - Recent tax reductions on housing transactions have already helped lower the cost of home purchases, and further fiscal measures are anticipated to enhance affordability [12][15]. - The focus on "investing in people" through various financial supports, such as subsidies for families and talent, is expected to positively influence the housing market [15][22]. Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The announcement of measures to support urban renewal aims to revitalize old urban areas, improve living conditions, and stimulate related industries, thereby indirectly stabilizing the housing market [18][21]. - The new policies provide clearer guidelines for urban renewal projects, addressing planning and land use issues, which are critical for the successful implementation of these initiatives [19][20]. - Urban renewal efforts are expected to enhance the quality of life and create a more favorable environment for real estate development, contributing to long-term market stability [21][22].